hondo in seattle

I love Fred and hope he gets 100 carries and averages over 5 yards per rush. If Roman is truly a run-game guru and we can field a competent OL, I think this is possible. But Shady is wearing Buffalo blue these days so that makes me a fan of him, too. I hope he gets 250 carries and averages more than 5 ypc too. I want carries and yards for everyone.

In order, my worries are QB, OL, LB - with QB and OL being a virtual tie. I think our starting LBs are fine but injuries could hurt us. Then again, no team has depth everywhere. And as Hopeful points out, Rex is pretty creative and will field 11 good players one way or another. There's a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball overall to play with.

While many of us may revile him, Pat fans are rallying behind him. I don't think its surprising.

The Bleacher Report has an article about the possibility of team's now carrying two-point specialists like Tim Tebow, for example. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2483081-should-nfl-teams-really-pursue-2-point-specialists While I do believe 2 point conversions will spike this year, I don't think teams will alter their rosters in any dramatic way. We already have 2 point specialists - they're called football players. And sometimes they're called short yardage specialists. Football teams face important short yardage situations all the time and they're already built to maximize success in those situations.

Lacina is probably a very good human being. But, as I recall, the guy had no agility.

So far cap considerations haven't been much of a problem for the Bills for years. So it's hard to get too concerned about them overspending for anyone. For the most part, I've wanted them to spend more. But I am starting to wonder about next year - and the years ahead - with no big name QB under contract and lots of cap space taken up by other positions.

Somebody says that Vic says the Bills like a couple of young lineman. And from that we get to Cordy will be demoted to 2nd string. Sounds like the telephone game.

All these guys have their blemishes and nothing would surprise me but I'm guessing (barring injury): 1. EJ 2. Cassel 3. TT I think Matt Simms gets cut. His resume isn't very strong and I know nothing about the guy that makes me think he'll beat out anybody. He was NY's last string QB and the Jets aren't exactly blessed at that position.

This probably isn't far off though I think Fred will have more time/carries than Boobie.

I agree. We already knew TT was athletic, Freddy confirming it means nothing. Bradham saying TT has been "accurate" is reassuring because TT hasn't been noted for accuracy thus far in his career. But one guy calling him "accurate" doesn't put my worries to rest. I really don't care who QBs the Bills. Listening to Rex and his coaches, it sounds like it truly is an open competition. May the best man win. Obviously, you've never seen me in shorts.

Ray Rice - the Bills will sign him on the cheap and he'll lead the Bills in rushing. (This is one of those posts that I don't actually believe but I'll look prescient if it actually happens. I'll brag about my inside sources for years!).

Freddy.... Some predicted he'd be released. While he won't unseat Shady, he will have a productive season with flashes of Freddy goodness. EJ... I kind of think EJ will win the starting job and perform capably in Roman's offense. Sophomore OL... Could Whaley have whiffed on all three? I think one of them will step and be a be a good starter by the end of the season. Cross my fingers, maybe even two.

I'm glad you titled the thread Cassel's "Ceiling" because you didn't include any realistic exploration of Cassel's "Floor." Like most every QB, Cassel does better working behind a good OL and I'm not convinced we have one. Maybe Greg Roman will bring out the best of Cassel and he'll produce on par with '08 or '10. Then again maybe we'll see Cassel's "Floor" where he throws twice as many picks as TDs as he did in 2012. Cassel hasn't produced poor seasons solely because he's lacked talent around him. He brings his own shortcomings to the table too. I agree there are reasons to be hopeful. Then again, I find reasons to be hopeful every season. My hardened expectation is that Cassel will be the mediocre QB that he's been most of his career. Given the quality of the rest of the squad, that might be just enough to break the drought.

Maybe each club has to identify a home-away-from-home. Maybe we'd pick Toronto. And whenever we were scheduled to play a home game in another country (just one game per year), it'd be TO. New England could choose London, England. Dallas might choose Mexico City. Seattle might choose Vancouver, Canada. San Francisco might choose Hong Kong... This would, logistically, be a tough sell but it could be fun to have 32 foreign cities with a home NFL team.

Rational coaches who have good short yardage offenses should go for the 2 point conversion every time. But most coaches are not rational, they're conservative. So it will be interesting to see how this plays out. This all reminds me of the conversations about "The Coach Who Never Punts." Kevin Kelley is the high school coach who wins championships partly letting math guide his decisions. And he's decided that going for it on 4th down is, statistically speaking, always the better option. According to UC/Berkeley professor, David Romer, no NFL team should punt when facing 4th and 4 or less. Despite all the analyses of likely outcomes, NFL coaches still usually punt. I still believe they're will be a spike in 2 point conversions but the one point PAT kick will still be the norm. http://grantland.com/features/grantland-channel-coach-never-punts/

The NFL's villains aren't usually as villainous as they're portrayed in the media. Then again, the heroes aren't as virtuous as they're often portrayed either. Hats off to Randy for this!

Yep, Dareus is a Pro Bowler for a reason - he makes a difference. He'll be missed. But the good news is that he'll be fresh for the Pats game and we know he won't get hurt in the season opener. Furthermore, Rex might change the Indy game plan up a little bit with Dareus out. Belichick might not see on tape exactly how Rex will use his new DLine. Every cloud has silver lining.

35 years ago, a friend of mine in college said bowling was the "only" thing to do in Buffalo.

There's been so much talk in the media about how talented the Bills are - except at QB. But I'm with vince... the OL worries me just as much at the QB situation. Everything needs to "break right" and maybe it will. Just maybe.

I'll take over. I think there's a fair possibility EJ wins the starting job outright. And if he doesn't, I expect him to be #2. Cassel is getting old and perhaps more injury prone than ever. EJ's gonna get some snaps.

I don't know how impactful Andre is as a position coach. But it's got to be good to have a HOFer who's accustomed to going to the playoffs on the coaching staff. And somebody who loves Buffalo and the Bills.

It's good to get 100% participation. It shows the players are committed. Even one veteran no-show can plant a seed in a young player's mind that skipping voluntary workouts is okay. At least the two guys missing - Brown and Williams - aren't expected to contribute much anyway.

For those who think we won't see a spike in 2 point conversions, think about this. The success for kicks that far out is about 94%. So the expected point total for each PAT kick is .94. The success rate last year for two point conversions was 48%. But since it's for 2 points, the expected point gain is .96. In other words, statistically speaking, the rational decision is to go for the 2 point conversion after every TD except late in a game when 1 point is enough for the win. Of course, the expected points will vary from team to team depending on the comparative quality of their kick game and red zone offense. Here's a good article about the math of the new conversion... http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2015/05/math_says_dan_carpenter_buffalo_bills_will_benefit_from_the_nfls_extra-point_rul.html

Good find indeed. Fred may be old but that was a manly block right there. He really laid into it. So much for the folks who say Fred only made one play last year. While this wasn't a game changing play, it was the kind of play that inspires teammates to sacrifice a little more. Fred's intangibles mean something. Would Shady have made that block? Bryce Brown?

Excellent insight.