OldTimer1960

I think Walker will be available at 60. He didn’t do himself any favors Senior bowl week.

With the roster as it is right now, Hamlin would only have to beat out converted CB Cam Jordan to be starting. I think we all love his story and what a good guy he is, but I think it’s a problem if he is starting.

You may be right, I don’t know.

Let’s see how fast he really is. I’m not sure great hands applies to him - I’m not implying he has bad hands, but I haven’t seen anyone saying he has great hands, either. Didn’t he catch a lot of screens just to get the ball into his hands? I am not saying that Corley is no good, but rather I don’t see him as savior of the Bills’ passing offense and a deep threat. Of course, I could be wrong.

Again, I don’t think it is good business to run your draft worrying about what KC might do. The flip-side of what you said is that KC won with an aging Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and some nobodies at receiver because they have Mahomes and a very strong defense. If not for their defense carrying them during the season, KC might have missed the playoffs after Mahomes missed time.

Isn’t that always the case?

I think this is over played here. Andy Reid and the Chiefs are not plotting how to beat the Bills exclusively - especially not right now when the Bills don’t have enough defensive players under contract to even field a team. Spending a 2nd or 3rd to move up to block a possible KC move up further deprives the Bills of picks to find defensive players who likely will have to play a lot this season.

From the limited amount I’ve seen of him (Corley) so far, a fair bit of his RAC is due to power/running through tackles instead of elusiveness and speed. I don’t know if that will translate to the NFL level.

Would be nice, but I’m not crazy about Worthy (drops, very thin) and not many beyond Thomas Jr and Franklin fit that bill around pick 28. Tez Walker likely available at 60, but is he skilled enough to fit that bill? Other fast guys likely will struggle out wide (Wilson, Worthy, a few others). Legette is certainly a possibility if he shows he is fast and quick enough.

Possible, for sure. I think having some pass rush is more important than getting the very best outside deep threat. The Bills are paying Josh Allen major $ to elevate those around him and he has done that effectively. They DO need a WR to replace Davis - ideally a great one, but a great WR with no pass rush on D is still a big problem. Question is, will there be a good DE or DT prospect that is as good as the WR prospects that could be there. Even though they are really in bad with the cap, they can probably re-sign Shaq Lawson, so rookie needs to have better upside than him.

You could be right on all counts. I agree that Shakir is still a question mark, but one with a promising finish to last season. I’d say he is penciled in as the slot guy, but could be replaced with a top level prospect. I’m not sure Wilson is yet a big step up in terms of freeing up from man, but I understand he showed better at that than expected at Sr Bowl. I think there are enough good slot guys that they can find one later to pair with Shakir. My min concern (for whatever that’s worth) is finding someone with size, hands and enough route running ability to take Davis’ spot. Again, Davis was OK, but hopefully they can do better. Downfield ability is important, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be a 4.3 guy to be effective.

I think the larger guy that can offer downfield availability is important. If they miss out on big and fast, they might be able to still find guys who can be active and make downfield plays on the many occasions that Josh holds the ball and scrambles around. I think Rice is somewhat limited in speed and fluidity, but he stays active on those kind of plays - think Legette and Coleman and Mitchell could all fit that bill with coaching. We need to remember that we (many of us) think Gabe Davis is pretty limited and the offense functioned pretty well with him. They should be able to find someone who can (with experience) do what Gabe did - maybe better or more consistently - somewhere in the first 3 rounds. There are some mainly slot guys with some intriguing ability, but before you take them, you have to ask how much of an upgrade are they from Shakir (no sure thing, but finished very strong) and if the combo of new slot guy and Shakir can somehow file the outside receiver spot adequately. For example, Roman Wilson has speed enough to be a deep threat, but is mostly a slot guy - same for Xavier Worthy - would you really want to line up with Diggs, Shakir and Wilson/Worthy most of the time?

Hmm, hadn’t seen that. Thanks!

Interesting data for sure. I wonder if the fact that Legette wasn’t a WR in high school delayed his emergence and if that mitigates concern over late bloomer label.

We have a lot of late picks that are not worth much in trade. We only have 3 picks in top 100. IF they have more than Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, Eli Ankou and Kingsley Jonathan under contract at DL before the draft, OK trade away 99 if they must, but I think more likely they trade back from 28 and trade up in maybe 4th or 5th round. They need young, cheap, players who can play some snaps early. It’s the cap that is driving that.

For all the hype around this class, the pickings for a big, fast outside receiver who can run patterns other than deep shots are pretty slim. If we accept that Harrison, Odunze, Nabers and Thomas are going to be out of reach, it leaves (from that list) Franklin who has speed, height and some smoothness but is very thin (probably not making a living over the middle), Worthy who is a more extreme case than Franklin, and Mitchell/Coleman who have size and some agility, but probably aren’t burners. The rest on that list are going to have problems trying to fill the role that Gabe Davis had and they need to be mostly slot guys. I do like Javon Baker, but I don’t know how high they would have to take him. 60? 99?

I understand your point about contested catches, but is that a big concern with Legette? He isn’t going to be a rote runner supreme like McConkey is, but bigger, likely faster and much stronger should translate to getting open. In the few games I’ve seen of Legette, he doesn’t seem like every catch is contested, but it’s nice that he can make those. The examples you cited (Nacua, Dell, St. Brown, etc) make a lot of their living in the slot and middle of the field. Inside, route runners have a little more room and can go either way on a cut. Outside, that’s possible too, but they are more constrained. I am biased towards the nuanced route runners, too, but Bills already have Kincaid and Shakir looks on the upswing and both will be mostly in the middle of the field. Another receiver operating in there seems like it would bring too many defenders in there.

I am puzzled by the lack of hype for Legette. I think the concerns with him are: 1 year production, a bit older than other prospects, long speed but not instant acceleration and he doesn’t look like a “smooth” mover like say Troy Franklin. But man, he looks pretty fast, is built VERY strong and seems to catch pretty well with his hands. If they could be sure he would be available at 60, I would say take a DL in round 1 and him in round 2. We will see how he (and others) test this week, but my guess is 4.5ish 40, pretty good jumps and just OK short area quickness and agility. Unless the Bills manage to sign a decent DT and DE in FA, I don’t think they will take a 2nd receiver until late because the DL and S are in limbo right now.

I think quite possible. He had a really rough week at the Senior Bowl and was shutout in the game, too.

Thanks, I imagine that was a lot of work! What metrics did you consider and which particular metrics did Thomas, Coleman, Mitchell and Polk not do well on? What are the sources of the metrics that you used? Some metrics seem very prone to opinions like “drop %”. Who decides what is a drop vs poor pass vs good defense and is the same “judge” creating the metric for each player? I don’t think being “only” 6’1” is a problem at all. Taller isn’t alway better - though I’d happily take Megatron in his prime.

I do like Latu. His medical is scary, but NFL will be all over that.

A lot of the guys you listed are interesting players, but not sure they can play outside where Gabe Davis played.

What is a reasonable yards per route run? I don’t know the source, but I read somewhere that Gabe Davis had 0.97 Yprr. That might be wrong, but it would not surprise me.

Kinda like KC did? No argument that receiver is a need and a very important one, but the Bills’ literally don’t have a full DL under contract and they are $50M over the cap right now. Do you want to see Eli Ankou start at DT (or even be on the roster?) or Kingsley Jonathan be the top backup DE? I am not saying that they can’t draft a WR at 28 or even move up a spot or two to do so, but I think rounds 2-4 need to produce a DT and a DE who can play meaningful snaps this year. Did I not say that I am not against WR in round 1?

I am not against a receiver in round 1, but I’m not in for a trade up unless it costs only a 5th or later pick. The only realistic trade up seems to be for Brian Thomas and I’m not sure he is a great deal better than Legette or Franklin or even Devonte’s Walker (in 2nd).