billsfan89
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18 hours ago, FireChans said:
Jerry Jones hasn’t made a “cute” first round pick in many years now. Their first round pick last year was their LT in waiting while Smith got old (and was quite a foresight).
Zero chance they take Worthy imo. DB or OL will be their pick, or another WR.
The Cowboys have operated very prudently for a long time now. But I don’t think Worthy would be a “reach” or a “cute” pick. Speed is very de rigeuer in the NFL and Worthy is a quality WR prospect whose not just a one trick pony speed player.
I think the Cowboys also need some playmaking on offense. Lamb is a stud but outside of him there’s not too much else Brandin Cooks is the only other notable WR on their roster and while he’s coming off a decent year (54 catches 657 yards) he’s not the high end player he used to be. Jake Ferguson at TE is a good receiving option but not a dynamic player either.
So there’s a need at WR and for speed on the offense and Worthy is not going to be a shock to go in round 1 talent wise.
I can see it happening given that the player is a quality player at a position of need for the Cowboys
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Solid mock very sensible. Always hard to do a mock because there’s 32 different teams with 32 different boards so it’s just guess work.
But your mock makes sense. I do think that if the Bills were to trade down it would be ideal. In this scenario the Bills at pick 36 would still have a ton of quality options available to them at WR. Franklin, Legette and McConkey are still on the board and there’s only 3 picks ahead of them and I doubt all 3 teams take WR’s and even in that unlikely scenario there’s still other players they can pivot to.
I also do think the Bills likely would have to toss back pick 204 in that trade which I am fine with. Picks 28 and 204 for picks 36 and 78 seems like a good deal for both sides.
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44 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
was Brady the GOAT from 2001-2004? he sure wasn't.
who put all those rosters together that fielded the GOAT and all those PB/AP/SB winners?
I would argue that Brady was also mostly a game manager plus in that 2018 Super Bowl run as well. The Pats team was ground and pound with a great defense and a clutch QB that didn’t make mistakes. That 2018 team was built much more similar to those early 2001-2004 teams.
I think the narrative has shifted far too much against Bill B as the way some fans and pundits make it seem as though “Brady was the system” which ignores the fact that 4 of those titles including the last one were won on the strength of great defenses, great special teams and a strong ground game complemented by a QB who took care of the ball and made plays when needed.
It is not a knock on Brady as Billy B had to shift the team away from a defense oriented approach starting in 2007 and all the way up until about 2017 and in that time they made 5 Super Bowls and won 2 with a team built around Brady and a powerful offense. The defenses were not dominant defenses in that era but rather more so solid units whose strength was forcing field goals in the redzone and creating turnovers.
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I think if McD burns out in Buffalo without winning a ring his best career trajectory for a second run is Tom Caughlin. Caughlin had a great run with the expansion Jaguars, from just their second season as a franchise in 1996 Caughlin took the team to the AFCCG and then made the playoffs the next 3 seasons with one more trip to the AFCCG.
Then Caughlin had 3 straight losing seasons from 2000-2002 and it just was time to move on. Then in 2004 the Giants hire him and he has a great run there . After a lackluster first year Caughlin put up 4 straight playoff appearances from 2005-2008 with two division titles and a Super Bowl.
Then after 8 and 10 win seasons that did not yield a playoff birth in 2009-2010 they go on that second miracle Super Bowl run in 2011.
McD if he’s unsuccessful in getting the Bills a Super Bowl and he leaves will definitely get another shot similar to how Caughlin turned an expansion team into a contender for a 4 year period and was given a shot to resurrect the Giants. McD just has to hope the luck goes his way.
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Allen probably feels good not having to “deal with” Diggs. Demanding coworkers for anyone can be a lot to deal with let alone in the biggest pro sport in the nation
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35 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
Just playing devils advocate- I don’t think Miami and its prolific offense have that big boundary receiver. I’m not saying that the Bills shouldn’t try to find one, but I think there are successful offenses that don’t have that.
I don’t think the Bills necessarily need a “big” WR but they need someone that can be effective on the boundary and doesn’t “need” to be in the slot. I think right now you have your top 2 WR as players who are more effective in the slot but can play outside. Diggs wasn’t a big body player but he was a boundary WR most of the time.I think they have bigger guys in Hollins and Shorter who are both 6 foot 4 and over 200 pounds (Hollins 209 and Shorter a whopping 229) so they have options for bigger players in some situations but they need a more consistent playmaker on the boundary.
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1 hour ago, SWATeam said:
I think the complete focus on an outside guy is overstated.
Yes, we need to replace Gabe. But we also need to replace Diggs. Made we get a Ladd or Pearsal early to play the Y and get an X later or via trade or something.
I think they likely view Samuel as eating up the targets for Gabe. I know they aren’t exactly the same player but I think they likely view both Shakir and Samuel as splitting time in the slot and at the boundary.
What they really need is a solid boundary WR who can efficiently take on 70-80 targets and turn that into 50+ receptions and 650-750 yards 5-6 TD’s. You are going to be then counting on Shakir having more production on better volume, Kincaid taking on a bit more in terms of 20 additional targets, and Samuel having a solid season taking the 70-80 targets Gabe has gotten in the past two seasons and making them more efficient.
You don’t necessarily need a rookie to come in an replace all or most of Diggs production but just some of it. I then think adding a boundary WR in round 4-5 as depth rounds out the WR core as out probably need another pure boundary guy to spot start if needed
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59 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:
Pressure on the QB always makes the defensive backfield better
I also trust McD to find a safety in rounds 4-5 this edge class is not bad but it’s not very deep either-
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1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:
Buffalo Bills
1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troyhe has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.
A solid sensible mock, I do however think that pick 60 is going to be defensive line and not safety. I think they have mentioned in the past that they don’t necessarily look for safeties with high athletic profiles but rather players who are smart and can execute the scheme.
Poyer and Hyde were about a 5 on the RAS which is a below average score. Even Hamlin, Edwards and Rapp all are around 7 on the RAS which is fairly average to slightly above average.
I think you are likely to see a safety taken in the 128-163 range as you can probably find a less athletic smart safety to add depth and develop to take over for Edwards in 2025.
If I also had to nitpick think that they likely aren’t going twice on offensive line. They generally carry 9 offensive linemen maybe 10 max. I think the top 7 are locks with the starting 5 plus Van Denmark and Anderson likely to make the roster as reserves. I also think between Collins and Clapp they have one of those two make the roster. Which assuming Collins makes the roster puts you at 8 so one more prospect added to the back end depth seems more realistic. I think you are also going to see a corner drafted in somewhere likely at pick 204 if this draft plays out that way.
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I think WR at pick 28 is likely and a DE/DT at picks 60 and 128 is what will follow and then another WR at pick 133.
Then I think at pick 144 they go safety and offensive line at pick 160 and corner at pick 163. At picks 200 and 204 I think they go RB and CB again. 248 is just Bpa as that’s just a flyer pick anyway.
I think they draft for depth and quantity as McBeane has to know they are in need of cheap talent to backfill their cap as the 2022 draft class is looking like an expensive one to retain.
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1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:
Yes my bad correct 10 picks.. I think they probably pick 9 who all have a shot at making the roster.
Looking at the roster I see room for 8-11 players from this draft class.
Just breaking it down a bit
I can't see them drafting anything other than a 7th round flyer on TE, QB, LB or K/P (even though I think K/P is a need I don't think they view it that way).
As far as the rest of the position groups I think they have room on the roster for
WR: Room for 1-2 players - Biggest need on the team, they usually carry 5-6 so with Shakir, Samuel and Hollins as locks and Shorter as a probably that leaves room for 1-2 players there.
OL: Room for 1 player - They usually carry 9-10, I think with Collins and Clapp added to the bench and Van Denmark and Anderson there they will likely only draft one player to be in the mix to push Collins and Clapp in camp and add some development.
RB: Room for 1 player - They usually carry 3 RB's and right now only Cook and Ty Johnson are there. They don't need to spend a high pick here but they could easily add a depth RB in round 6.
DT: Room for 1-2 players - They right now have Oliver, Daquon and Johnson at DT, they usually carry 5. Likely they are going to draft 1 if not 2 players here. They need longer term stability and development here.
DE: Room for 1-2 players - They have AJE, Groot and Von as locks and they usually carry 5-6 DE's, I think they probably like Kingsley Johnathan and Toohill to battle it out for that 5th spot. I think they want a rookie in on that 4th DE spot and I could see them drafting 2 if they want to carry 6 here. Although I think them carrying 6 is unlikely.
S: Room for 1 player - They have Rapp and Edwards as starters and they usually carry 5. With Cam Lewis likely occupying one spot as a ST player and Hamlin occupying one backup spot, they definitely need to bulk up the depth and develop someone behind Edwards whose only a one year rental.
CB: Room for 1-2 players - They usually carry 6 CB's and they currently run 4 deep with Douglas, Elam, Benford and Taron locks, they also have Ingram whose been developing on the backend bench and PS the past two seasons. I think they easily need one if not two corners for depth and development.
I don't think they go 4 DL players at most they go with 3 so I think 11 players drafted/rostered if they do a trade down and acquire a pick is unlikely. I also think they may only draft one CB as I think they like Ingram as the CB6.
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This is just one mans opinion but every year the opinions on the NFL draft class vary so widely. Some years you have some pundits saying this is a terrible class while others say this class is super deep. The NFL draft class has such varying opinions more so than the NBA or NHL draft whose opinions on those sports draft classes tend to be more uniform (in a given year you can tell which draft classes are more highly or less regarded for example this years NBA draft class is viewed by most as a "weak" draft class).
I think largely because football has 22 starting position plus kickers and punters and even in the 22 starting positions there are variances (like players might be suited for a 3-4 role or a 4-3 role or zone vs. man schemes) and role players plus special teams. You probably are scouting for 35-40 position types and roles on a NFL draft.
The only consistent trend I am seeing among pundits and "draft experts" is that the WR class is very good and the QB class is great at the top and a crap shoot after the first two prospects. Everything else is such a variance as to how good or deep the overall class is and that is in line with most drafts.
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3 hours ago, Roundybout said:
With Von’s record, this means we’re trading down for a random defensive tackle from Alabama
Although I think WR is the teams primary need if they go D-Line or O-Line esp via a trade down I am fine with it. Just don’t go safety-
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1 hour ago, AlfaBill said:
True but I’ll add he was acquitted because the jury feared massive riots and destruction if they found him guilty.
I think a juror (who was a black woman) said in an interview after the trial that she said she rendered an innocent verdict as revenge for the Rodney King beating.-
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OJ is a very complex legacy. He was unquestionably a great football player. Heisman trophy winner in college, number one overall pick and a Hall of Fame pro career with an insane 2K rushing yards season in just 14 games.
Prior to his murder trial he was kind of a Trailblazer in terms of being a black man accepted as a corporate spokesperson for mass market “white” products.
But all of that was completely undone by his murder trial in which while he was acquitted largely to a great defense team and a botched prosecution and police investigation. But the evidence largely points to him having done it and he was convicted both in civil court and in the court of public opinion.
Then he ended up in jail for an armed robbery before spending the last years of his life giving fantasy football advice on Twitter. Just an odd place where his life ended up. He could have very easily lived a great life but in his late 40’s it got completely turned upside down.
Then there’s also the CTE issues and other questions. But for now his life is over and he’s remembered for what he is.
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I would love adding him to the Bills and all it costing draft wise is pick 128 and a 2nd next year or pick 60 and a 6th next year.
But the issue is his contract and the Bills cap. I just don’t see it lining up I also think the Bills don’t want to add a big contract for a WR in 2025 and beyond after getting off the Diggs deal which they likely wanted to get off a big cap number in the coming season
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Just now, dave mcbride said:
Thanks! See above re Alshon Jeffrey too, which I added.
Re Boldin, the stats were always bound to decline a bit because they were a run-heavy team. But the postseason numbers were excellent.
Boldin was also a fantastic blocker (which for a run heavy team like the Ravens or 49ers is more important) he set a physical tone on offense which is very rare for a WR. -
Hopefully he nets the Bills a comp pick as for the Giants you could do a lot worse as far as rotational backup DT. Phillips second stint here was marred by injury as he would get hurt just as he would start to play well.
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12 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:
I have no idea what they are going to do, or what Beane is thinking, obviously, but I don't think Samuel was signed as a replacement for Davis, as some appear to speculate. They will line him up all over the place, including the backfield. I don't see him as a boundary receiver primarily. Samuel is a versatile weapon that fits Brady's vision for the offense, but if anything, I'd rather picture him as an upgrade to the role Harty was supposed to fulfill. In addition, I am not convinced a significant leap in targets for Shakir is the best option. As others have pointed out, he would be an outlier as a success on the outside given his short arms. I like him as a weapon, but I don't see him as expanding his targets so much that the WR room can't tolerably add two WRs that command significant targets.
You can get by with 1 WR early. You could just adjust the targets and give more to Samuel and Shakir, Kincaid and Knox, etc. I personally still do not see a big-bodied X to replace Davis. If you think that is all you need, then someone like Thomas, Mitchell, or Legette should be the main interest in the draft. I am not convinced Coleman can be a boundary receiver like that because of limited speed, but some like him. Maybe Burton, Walker, or Polk could be considered on day 2.
My argument for McConkey is that I think he's a special talent who can play the role that Diggs has been playing. Franklin could, too, but I like McConkey better. Lots of folks probably have it the other way around. I think his ceiling is well above Shakir's. I would rather keep Shakir's targets on the lower end, where I think you can maximize his talent, than expand them significantly. I like the idea of two rookie contracts for a potential WR1 and WR2 that can grow together with Josh, and I'd rather have some redundancy in the WR room in the sense that you have more latitude where the targets can be spread around, and backup options if someone gets injured.
That may not be efficient, but that's the way I prefer to go with it, and some of this is to take advantage of the extraordinary depth at the position early in the draft (the tiers of WR that will go in the first 40 to 45 picks.) Some will counter that we have too many other needs and this is a luxury set of choices. I don't see it precisely that way, but I am not strictly motivated by filling out the roster as completely as possible.
We are in full agreement on the need to draft a WR early but I just don’t think McBeane who generally speaking is very prudent when building a roster is spending 8-10 million a year on a replacement for your WR4.
It would be a foolish waste of resources to spend your largest free agent contract on upgrading a role player slot. Which leads me to believe they feel that Samuel is a slot or slot boundary hybrid and that Shakir is likely a slot boundary hybrid player at a minimum.
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As a vet with some punt return ability and speed you could do worse for a WR 5/6 especially if you draft some players to compete with him in the back 2 rounds
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5 hours ago, Dr. Who said:
He played 70% of his snaps on the outside at UGA. He's not primarily a slot receiver. I think he can fill the Diggs' role. You still need an X -- Thomas, Legette, Mitchell, etc. I think we need two WR early, and I'd be thrilled if McConkey were one of them.
I know we have gone back and forth on this but I do want to ask why you think the Bills need two boundary WR’s to come in as rookies? Are Shakir and Samuel splitting snaps at the slot in your mind?Genuinely asking because it just doesn’t seem likely that any offense is going to give more snaps to a second round rookie over Shakir a player who is a third year player coming off a very strong end to his second season and Samuel a proven 28 year old vet they just signed to a fairly big contract. The offense is also likely to employ Knox as a second TE at least for a good chunk of formations which leads to the Bills employing on two WR’s and I think Shakir or Samuel will be one of them in those situations.
I definitely think this team needs a boundary WR who can soak in 70-80 targets effectively. But I don’t think this team needs a second boundary WR that is going to play heavy snaps over Shakir/Samuel/Knox and even Hollins may get situational snaps.
I just don’t think the Bills would have signed Samuel and only think he can play slot unless they thought Shakir could play outside. Or if they thought Shakir was playing only in the slot then they probably feel comfortable with Samuel on the boundary at least a good chunk of the time.
If you view Shakir as a slot and you need to replace Gabe and you are knowing Diggs is not certain why sign a player whose a slot exclusively to your largest free agency deal?
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9 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
I think all options are on the table at this point. I went with wr at 28 and different position at 60. I think the Bills are digging deep into Alabama and Jermaine Burton. Went to Alabama pro day instead of Texas both were on the same day. Maybe taking attention off Texas wideouts.
Trading all the way up for one of the top 3 seems a bit rich. If they do it I would be excited but pretty much rolling with the dline as it is. I think they need to do something at 60 to add depth to Edge or draft Jones successor at DT.
I could see a trade up to the 20s late teens including a 25 2nd. Beane really likes a guy he will go get them.
Only 1 I could fully get behind is Marvin Harrison Jr. I would say the Andrew Luck prospect of WR. Was a future 1st round pick since highschool
I would think a trade up to 3 would be at such a steep cost that I would pass. And Marvin Harrison JR as good of a WR prospect as he is (and I think he's probably the best prospect at WR since Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones in my opinion certainly as blue chip a WR prospect can get) is simply not worth the huge trade up that would likely be required.
I think if the package was picks 28, 60, 128 and 144 this year plus a 1st and 2nd next year I wouldn't hate it, its a steep price but you are getting Josh as good of a cost controlled WR1 as possible and you still have a 2nd next year even if you give up one in a trade up. BUT I think the price AZ will want to go all the way down from 3 to 28 is likely to be picks 28, 60, 128 and 144 plus 1st round picks in 2025 and 2026 along with a 2nd rounder in 2025 and a 3rd in 2026.
AZ is going to want to set up their drafts in 2025 and 2026 with multiple firsts and two additional premium picks. I just don't think any non-QB prospect is truly worth giving up a future first let alone two.
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3 hours ago, Jimmy Harris 69 said:
Moving up always gives one the chance to “win the draft” in the eyes of some expert. History has shown the cost is too high, and it fails to be the difference maker (see the falcons with no trophy and see the chiefs hoisting the trophy using a bunch of what-sis). I’d be satisfied with a staying at 28 or even moving down a tad. Moving down and dealing Minnesota’s 2025 number 2 could potentially get us a starting receiver, DT and safety in rounds 2 and 3. We could then grab another receiver in round 4 or 5, in addition to staying open to veterans on the market this summer. We need edge, cb and rb help as well. McConkey, Worthy should still be in play in late round 1, the others in later rounds. This list is from cbs sports.
Ladd McConkey, UGA, 6-0 / 185
Worthy, TEXAS, 6-1 / 172
Coleman, FSU, 6-4 / 215
Baker, UCF, 6-1 / 208
Franklin, OREG, 6-3 / 187
McMillan, WASH, 6-1 / 192
Corley, WKY, 5-11 / 210
Polk WASH, 6-2 / 204
Legette, SC, 6-3 / 227
Smith, TXAM, 5-10 / 200
Wilson, MICH, 6-0 / 192
Cowing, ARIZ, 5-11 / 175
I actually think moving up massively/significantly for a non-QB or a lackluster QB prospect actually leads to pundits saying that the team that traded back more often than not won the trade. I think many feel that trade ups of more than a few spots high up tend not to be worth it most of the time. NFL roster building is almost more about not having weaknesses and good depth than it is about what your top elite talent looks like (outside of the QB position). Getting more picks or swapping out lower end picks for higher ones and get more or better "bites at the apple" to bring in talent all over the roster is better than going up higher on the board.
You do need at least 2-3 elite non-QB players but the issue is that even trading up well into the top 10 does not guarantee that at that much higher a degree and as we have seen throughout NFL history elite top 5 at their position players are found all places in the draft and even some like Jason Peters un-drafted (although UDFA's being elite players is rare).
I think given how deep this draft class is staying at 28 unless Brian Thomas maybe falls to around 24/25 (which would be a smaller more manageable trade up) the Bills best bet is to "let the draft come to them" and draft a WR at pick 28 like Legette or McConkey or trade down 5-10 spots and pick up a 3rd round pick and still take a WR like Franklin or Wilson and use that 3rd round pick to fill a need elsewhere on the roster and then take another WR at pick 128 for added depth while using pick 60 and whatever you got from the trade down to build the defensive line or if at pick 60 a top guard or center is there add a piece to the offensive line.
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22 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
He’s a little bit of both. Size and athletically he’s basically identical to Garrett Wilson. There are stereotypes with guys that look like him 😂😂. He can play either place. He reminds me of Diggs honestly. The Antonio Brown comparisons are reasonable as well.
My concern with the Bills is that whomever they draft can't be a pure slot guy (which McC doesn't seem to be) and ideally the player would be more of a pure boundary player. I think of Shakir and Samuel as hybrid slot boundary players (although of the two I think Shakir is more capable of consistently playing on the boundary but he should flex into the slot now and again). Seems like from the description of what you are telling me about McC if asked to play the boundary consistently it wouldn't be a bad fit? If so I like what I see from him, I think he would be a good fit on this offense, they can then take a mid-round WR whose more of a pure boundary player to round out the depth.
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Media Day at OBD (Beane, McDermott, Josh & more)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I still think you need a dynamic receiving option that draws double teams and attention and can make plays regularly. But the Bills can work around not having Diggs by utilizing Kincaid as the primary receiver and then spreading the ball around to Shakir, Samuel, Knox, Cook, a rookie drafted highly and the supplemental players like Hollins, Ty Johnson and Shorter.
I think you need two WR’s in the draft. One drafted up high to play the boundary consistently and absorb 70-80 targets efficiently and one got depth that can be drafted in rounds 4-5. I don’t think you need to draft a WR at 28 and 60 because Shakir is only a WR3 and Samuel is a gadget WR4.