billsfan89
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Posts posted by billsfan89
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I don't see McBeane doing a massive trade up for a non-QB, and honestly I don't think trading up for a non-QB is worth it. The NFL draft is a complete crapshoot AND the NFL it's self is very volatile with injuries. You can pick the right players whose fantastic but then he gets seriously hurt and the chances he washes out is a lot higher. In order for the Bills to go from pick 28 to pick 6 it would probably require the Bills to give up picks 28, 60, 128 and a 1st and 3rd in next years draft. That's 5 selections in the first 4 rounds for one player that isn't a QB (as QB's are both franchise changers and can now play for a long period of time they are the only position worth trading up massively for).
If you get Nabers at pick 6 and at a cost of a future 1st, 3rd, and picks 28, 60 and 128 that's 5 good draft picks wrapped up in one single player. If he is a bust or gets hurt you are sinking so much down the drain. Smaller trade ups I am fine with if Brian Thomas Jr falls to the pick 23/24 and they want to trade up I am fine with it. But don't mortgage a lot of two draft classes for a WR.
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18 minutes ago, SCBills said:
If I'm a Houston fan.. I'm not exactly loving this deal now.
Even at 18M or whatever per year, they had control of Diggs for multiple years on what essentially becomes team options given the lack of guaranteed money.
Now it's a rental.. for the Vikings '25 RD2 pick with some Day 3 picks in return.
Steep price.
I actually love it more if I am a Houston fan. Their risk is fairly low. If Diggs balls out and has an elite season he's going to be a 32 year old free agent he's not going to command a huge 3+ year deal. WR's usually don't have many prime seasons left after age 33. The Texans can still get a 5th round comp pick for him which would amount to the Texans trading a 2nd round pick from Minny for a 6th round pick, two 5th round picks and an elite year of WR play.
What I would have feared if I were the Texans was Diggs declining rapidly in 2024 or 2025 and the Texans having to take a big hit on the cap to dump him or have him be an overpaid role player for a season. Now that fear is largely eliminated.
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7 minutes ago, sonyab1974 said:
Yeah wow! It's shocking to me! I did not see that one coming. Josh Allen better not be leaving!!!
If Josh wanted Diggs to stay he would be here. I think Diggs wore thin on Josh and he gave the green light for them to trade him.
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It's a good long term move and a bad short term one. And in a league where decisions are judged frequently by how things are impacting the right here right now the Texans are going to get all the praise here and the Bills are getting the short end of the stick most of the time.
But looking at this from a long term perspective I think the Bills made the right move. They not only acquire a premium draft pick (a pick likely to be in the top 10 of the second round) but also free up a lot of cap space. Pundits are saying "the Bills are eating 31 million in dead cap" yeah but that money would have already been tied up with Diggs this year anyway. They were already paying Diggs 27ish million this year so that's kind of already a sunk cost. So it amounts to the Bills taking on a small additional dead cap hit this season (about 3-4 million from what I am reading) to both acquire a premium draft selection (a likely high second swapped for a 5th and 6th) and put themselves in a much better situation with salary cap space going forward.
The Texans due to having Stroud on a rookie deal for 3 more years plus a 5th year option are in a position to take on risk. If Diggs has 2 more elite years left they will be happy even if it means overpaying him in 2026 and taking a small dead cap charge in 2027 along with giving up a good pick. If Diggs has 1 more elite year left and then declines the Texans probably won't be happy having to overpay him in 2025 and take a big cap hit in 2026 but they can stomach that risk and still be a competitive team. Then the upside of Diggs having 3 or less likely 4 elite seasons left would certainly be worth it for the Texans. Even if Diggs is a complete disaster there and declines in 2024 the Texans can absorb the risk and still make other moves.
Whereas the Bills are looking at really sandbagging their team for years if Diggs can't give them at least 2 more elite seasons. The Bills made the move of probably getting rid of a player a year too early which is what prudent front offices do. Toss in the off-field stuff and the Bills getting a premium pick and a ton of future cap space and it makes sense for the Bills to just draft a couple of WR's one early and one in the mid-rounds in a WR rich draft and go forward from there.
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I wonder how many draft picks this team thinks it can roster? If I am looking at the roster I am seeing 7-9 spots for rookies.
QB- Josh and Mitch are there probably no room on the 53 will need a PS QB in case of emergency but that’s likely a UDFA or a late stage free agent.
RB- This team carrier 3 RB’s plus a FB. Cook and Ty plus Gilliam at FB are locks easily room for a draft pick to be the RB3 and provide for depth and special teams.
WR- Team usually carries 5-6 right now they have 4 locks in Diggs, Samuel, Shakir and Hollins with a probable player in Shorter. Room for 1 more if they want it.
TE- This team usually carries 3 and the DK bros are locks while Morris is a probable. Maybe a late round pick to push Morris but not a clear spot here.
Oline- They usually carry 9 you have Dawkins, Edwards, McGovern, Torrence and Brown as starters with Van Denmark and Alex Anderson as locks for reserve spots. Clapp will also compete. Easily room for 1-2 picks here.
DE- Team usually carries 6 and there’s 3 locks in AJE, Groot and Von with Kingsley Jonathan and Toohill there as back end competition. Easily room for 1-2 picks here.
DT- Team usually carries 5 - Right now they have Oliver, Daquon and Jonathan as locks with Williams as back end depth and a fringe player. Easily room for 1-2 rookies.
LB- Team usually carries 5 - Bernard, Morrow, Milano, and Dorian Williams are locks while I think Spector is a probable. Maybe room for late round competition for Spector but not a need.
CB- Team usually carries 6 - Douglas, Elam, Benford, and Taron are locks. Easily room for 1-2 picks here depending on where they slot Cam Lewis.
S- Team usually carries 5 - Rapp, Edwards, Hamlin and Lewis are here easily room for a pick here as they will likely want to develop someone behind Edwards.
Punter and Kicker could also use competition but I don’t see them viewing it as a need to spend picks on.
That’s about 9-10 slots by my count. 1RB, 1WR, 1OL, 1DE, 1DT, 1CB, and 1S and I think you could see a double dip at CB, DT, OL or DE.
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43 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
Just playing devil’s advocate - couldn’t same be said for WR? They have “found” starters without spending big $ in FA or high draft picks - and the offense has been very good.
To be clear, both WR and the secondary have been more “it’s fine” than “hey, this is a strength”. I am for Wr in round 1, provided that there is not a much higher rated player at another premium position including DE, DT, OT and CB. I actually would be excited to trade down and get either a late 3rd or early 4th. No WR that has any likelihood of being available is a “can’t pass up” guy. I could align with Mitchell, Legette or McConkey with some reservations on each.
In my view, if Verse, Latu, Murphy or Newton are there, I’d be very tempted. I could also really understand if they took Chop Robinson.
I don't think the same could be said for WR as the team had to bring in John Brown and Beasley in 2019 to turn around the WR room and then traded a first for Diggs to get Josh his WR1. Yes the team found Gabe Davis in round 4 and he ended up being a decent receiver and they found Shakir in round 5 and he's shown a lot of promise this past season. But since 2018 when Josh got here, the team's best WR seasons have come from Diggs (2020-2023), John Brown (2019) and Beasley (2019-2020) all of which have come from veteran WR's brought in via fairly big free agent contracts or traded for a 1st round pick.
Generally speaking if the Bills are in a place in the draft where at pick 28 (assuming there isn't a trade down available) they should be able to find a WR, DE, OG, C or DT that has a first round grade as opposed to taking a CB at that selection. That's 5 different positions where a late 1st should yield you positive short term and long term impact more so than a CB would.
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I think it would be an interesting project to bring him in and see if you can "redshirt" him for a two years on the PS and then see if he can develop. I feel like the NFL should let each team have two additional PS slots for developmental players. I think allowing teams to have an extra 17th and 18th PS slots for developmental players that kind of work outside the normal PS rules would work wonders for athletes from other sports attempting to come into the league. Spitballing but I think it could look like.
- Only an un-drafted player with no NFL experience can sign the deal.
- During those two years the player's slot cannot be taken by another player, if you sign a player to a developmental deal for the 2024 and 2025 seasons and you cut them you aren't able to use that slot again until 2026.
- After those two years the team has to release you or sign you to their training camp roster. After those two years you are now subject to the regular rules regarding Practice Squad and NFL rosters.
- A player can only sign one developmental deal during their careers.
- Other teams cannot claim the developmental player on waivers during the duration of their developmental contract.
- Developmental players cannot be elevated to the roster during the duration of their developmental contract (thus players have to assess if its worth it to not make a roster for two years and if they should take the deal.)
I think this would greatly improve the quality of NFL players as it would allow athletes from other sports or athletes with more limited American football experience a pathway into the NFL. It would take advantage of each NFL team's infrastructure and allow them to be mini development factories for these uber raw prospects.
Each team can take two players and give them two full off-seasons of training and development and the chance to practice with the team for two seasons and then get brought into a third off-season where they can develop some more and then come in as a training camp participant and get a chance to make the roster outright or get put on the actual PS.
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25 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Smart move by the Colts the safety market is really not there in recent years so bringing back a starter likely on the cheap for one season is one less hole for them to worry about. I think the Bills were never going to be in on Blackmon after they signed Edwards. I think McBeane likely feels that Edwards can be a solid starter Edwards seems to be the type of safety who makes the plays you are "supposed" to make which is good enough for me. The Bills likely want the backup safety spots to be for a development draft pick and I doubt Blackmon was going to sign on to be a backup or compete with Rapp.
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24 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:
The difference between the CFL and UFL is players can't get out of CFL contracts to go to the NFL, while all UFL contracts are just one season long.
I didn't know that about the CFL, very interesting how restrictive they are. I believe the XFL 2.0 had a deal in place where any player could leave their XFL contract for the NFL they just couldn't join the USFL or CFL. I think the UFL has a chance to be a decent feeder league and a solid "niche" product for hardcore football nerds.
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3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:
Why would that be dumb? Premium position, some 1st round prospects, need likely next year.
I really don’t understand the fear of CB in the first round- and we hear it every year at draft time. It is a passing dominated league, somebody needs to cover receivers- hopefully well.
I am not arguing that they should take a CB in the first, but if they do it would not be like taking a RB or S or LB in the first- those positions have somewhat lesser value based on how the league pays them.
Given McD's ability to turn late round picks (Benford and Dane Jackson), mid round picks (Taron Johnson) and un-drafted players (Levi Wallace) into players ranging from serviceable starters to elite players at their position I don't think there is really a need to invest a high pick at corner. Corner at pick 28 would be a "luxury" pick at a position that there isn't a need and the coach has shown he can find players elsewhere at.
DL/OL/WR are all positions where the Bills should be able to find "first round value" at and all positions that would service the Bills short and long term needs better. Taking a corner at pick 28 would in my opinion be a drought era move expending a critical asset at a position where they are solid at and when other needs are vastly more pressing.
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I think the Bills are going to draft WR or DL with the 28th pick. I don't think they feel left guard is an issue worth spending a top pick on (they probably are good with Edwards there although I personally wouldn't be) they will probably draft 1-2 O-line players in the mid-rounds for depth but I don't see them spending pick 28 or 60 in that direction.
I think McBeane is likely to view DL as a place where he can address short term and future needs or WR where they can add more juice to the offense and find a long term replacement for Diggs. I think given the depth at WR and there being at least several 1st round DL players they will have both the need and value they want at one of those positions.
Personally OL/DL/WR anyone of those 3 I am fine with in round 1. I would hate to see Safety and really hate any other position as at least safety is a possible need short/long term.
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Dobbins isn't a needle mover due to his injury history. If a good organization like Baltimore moves on from you at age 25 due to injury it's probably a sign the player isn't worth investing in. Kick the tires on him but not likely to do much.
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I am very happy the UFL exists (and that it is a combination of the XFL and USFL as there isn't room in the market for two spring football leagues) because it does give guys a chance to make the NFL in unorthodox ways. The CFL is viable too but I think for whatever reason it is a lot harder to go from the CFL to the NFL. Maybe because the CFL rules are so vastly different?
Anyway I am glad to have a spring football league where guys can find ways to get into the NFL that weren't there in the past.
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3 minutes ago, Figster said:
thanks for the good input
Does league parody If this is what we are trying to accomplish equate to good entertainment.
It’s the collegiate star athlete that suffers the most with our current drafting procedure in my humble opinion.
I think collegiate stars aren’t suffering getting a lot of guaranteed money to play football. Yes ideally you would want top prospects to go to the place best suited to develop them right away but the league has to balance competitive balance with what’s good for the players entering the league.Overall given what we have seen thus far there’s not really any better system other than the draft in terms of what’s good for the leagues competitive balance and what’s fair for the players.
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The draft has to exist in a manner where bad teams get their picks slotted up higher. Is it rewarding a bad season? In a sense yes but I look at it as providing a team that is down on its luck a better chance to improve. Yes it can "reward" mismanaged teams but mismanaged teams bungle top picks so it isn't like a top pick guarantees you anything. I don't think "tanking" is an issue in the NFL as it is the NBA where a singular player can change around a teams fortunes drastically so an organization could conceivably "tank" a season to get a generational prospect.
In the NFL most teams go into a season trying to be competitive. Even teams with new coaches and GM's who are trying to rebuild still end up attempting to build a decent roster even if they eat a lot of dead cap, trade down for future selections or trade away some of their better players for draft picks. So I don't see there being any issue with the way the draft is currently set up.
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Well deserved Torrence was a very solid plug and play guard, I loved the pick when the Bills made it (he was considered by many to be the best "pure guard" in the draft and he fell to pick 58) and he delivered massively improving the guard play of this team along with McGovern. Brown went from being one of the worst starting RT's in the league in 2022 to a very good RT after a shaky start in 2023. Bernard starting was thought to be a joke and he proved to be the real deal. All 3 earned those extra dollars with strong on the field play.
3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:They need to reduce the rookie contracts by a year with a 4th year option for first round picks. Extension talks can start after two seasons. It's too brutal of a sport to have to wait four years just to get your second contract if you vastly outperform it.
If you are vastly out performing your contract teams typically give you an extension offer after year 3. If a team is picking up your 5th year option (which aren't cheap) they probably are going to be willing to resign you after year 3 unless you are on the bubble of being good but not great which is a rare instance.
I have no problem with the 5th year option given that most players won't have to play out more than 3 years to earn an extension.
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Sad to hear this news, 35 is way too young to go. Had a really solid NFL career just hate to see his life end in such tragedy.
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On 3/29/2024 at 10:41 AM, strive_for_five_guy said:
This board would explode if Beane ever had a draft like that (Whitner, McCargo, Youboty, Ko Simpson, Keith Ellison). Silver lining is we landed Kyle Williams in that draft.
Even though Whitner was a decent player and Kyle Williams was a complete stud and great late round pick that draft still set the Bills back given that they could have taken Ngata and Nick Mangold and instead got a draft bust in McCargo and an average safety in Whitner. The Bills could have ended up securing both sides of the line with Williams/Ngata up the middle and Mangold occupying the center spot for 8+ years at a high level.
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The Bills are in a good spot cap wise. Beane's management of the cap is among the best in the league. From 2019 to 2023 the Bills have been bottom 10 in dead cap dollars and in certain seasons bottom 5 in that span. Even this season when taking a hit on Tre, Floyd, Po, Mitch and some others they are only 14th in dead cap at about 23 million (not sure if that includes Tre's dead hit or not but even if it doesn't include that 5 million they would still only be number 10). This was a season that they had to "clean house" a bit and they still didn't take huge dead cap hits for the most part.
Entering into the 2024 off-season the Bills only had 2 bad contracts on the roster. Knox and Von were really the only two terrible contracts on the roster. And Beane got those contracts into a much better place. Knox is palatable to get out of in 2026 and is a lower number this season. Von's deal is much better this year and the team can get out of it in 2026 easily. No other contracts other than Diggs are on the horizon of being a possible bad contract and even Diggs they are only tied to for 2025 after that they can get out of it.
So it is not shocking they haven't padding out too much money in void years, Floyd was the only instance of them doing that at a significant degree.
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5 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:
There's nothing unsexy about drafting OL
Maybe 20 years ago fans would find an offensive line pick “boring” but the NFL is so starved for offensive line play that most fanbases want their teams to take offensive linemen up high -
Kris Jenkins is an intriguing prospect I think he has a chance at a good career
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WR or offensive line or defensive line take whatever the best player is at either of those positions and I am fine with it.
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The NFL has games on cable TV which you have to pay for and when games were exclusively on NFLN that was often a channel with an extra charge, I don't see the issue with them putting games on a streaming service that costs money. Yes I am very exhausted of having so many different streaming services but in the end it is a business not a charity.
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7 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:
Harris was always one of my favorite patriots (gosh that hurt to write) Dude always ran hard and got the tough yards, fun guy to watch. Was happy when he signed here but was terrified when he got that neck injury. Hope he enjoys his well earned retirement
I thought having the speedy Cook complemented by not one but two power backs in Harris and Murray was a good way to build the backfield and with Hines as the depth speed gadget guy I thought they built a really solid deep backfield. The fact that while Murray was older he was still coming off a productive season was a positive sign and Harris was younger and on a "prove it" deal which led me to think Harris would be the primary backup.
Just odd how Harris was mostly ineffective while Murray at least in the early going of the season was solid as a power back. I like Ty Johnson as a backup but I do think they will likely kick the tires on a vet "power back" in camp and also draft a back with some power in the 5th or 6th round to add depth and cost controlled youth.
Diggs traded to Texans for picks
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
This is a very interesting spot for Diggs to bet on himself. He's going to be 31 this upcoming season so by the time he gets his next "bite at the apple" in free agency he's going to be 32. Now historically HOF caliber WR's at age 32 can and still do put up prime numbers but the "cliff" for many great WR's is around age 33/34. It's very rare for a WR no matter how great to put up fantastic stats at age 34 and almost never heard of for a 35 year old WR to put up 1000 yard seasons.
I am some random guy on a message board and I am aware of this fact. So I am sure NFL GM's are also aware of this and would shy away from handing a 32 year old WR who became a problem for a good winning organization a huge bag of money. So I am not sure what Diggs long term goals are here?