billsfan89
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Posts posted by billsfan89
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19 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
No, they weren't busts, but they also weren't what Beane was hoping for our advertised after the drafts, and certainly aren't consistently reliable, and Groot has a below-pedestrian 1 Sack, 1 TFL, and 3 QB-Hits in 6 playoffs games.
AJE's even worse with 0 Sacks, 1 TFL, and 2 QB-Hits in 8 playoff games. Unlike Groot though, he hasn't had many snaps. Still, given that he hasn't, McD, as people here say all the time, knows what we don't know. Otherwise it would be remiss not too play him more.
My point is that out of the 3 DE selections they made in the first two rounds they were able to find productive players at 2 of those picks so there's no need to think that they should arbitrarily stay away from the position in the first two rounds if they feel there is a very good DE at either pick.
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After free agency and heading into the draft I feel pretty solid about the Bills heading into the draft. I do think the Bills will make one more free agency signing but probably a rotational DT or backup offensive linemen nothing earth shattering as the major moves are made. I think while the Bills still have some needs on the roster I think heading into the draft they will be in a position to fill a lot of those depth and short term needs fairly well.
I think the Bills have the following needs after the first couple waves of free agency are done and in the books.
1- Left Guard - Connor McGovern can slide into center fine, but David Edwards as a starter leaves a lot to be desired. I would strongly consider taking a top guard prospect at pick 60 if I were the Bills.
2- 3 Tech DT - Ed Oliver is a very very good 3 tech but the Bills have no one behind him. With Daquon being older and Johnson both older and on a one year deal getting a young cost controlled DT who can backup Ed is very much a need. The Bills usually carry 5 DT's so I suspect they may bring back Jordan Phillips or a low cost vet for the three tech backup spot before the draft but they need a body at DT for long and short term necessity.
3- DE - Von further removed from injury will hopefully be much improved while AJE and Groot are still there and a capable tandem. However the Bills carry 6 DE's and the back end of the rotation is lackluster and long term they probably need a cost controlled player as Von is old and AJE and Groot are only under contract for 2 more seasons.
4- WR - Not a glaring need with Diggs, Shakir, Samuel and Hollins along with having Kincaid as a quality receiving TE along with Knox as a quality TE who can flex out the backfield but long term they have to prepare for Diggs decline and short term adding more depth and "pop" at WR is a good idea. Doesn't have to be a high pick but won't hate a high pick here either.
5- Safety - The starting combo of Rapp/Edwards is an average to below average starting combo but the depth and long term situation there needs to be addressed. Getting a safety that can add depth and be developed long term seems like a good use of a 4th round selection or a 5th round selection. Edwards and Hamlin are both on the final year of their deals and Rapp is signed past that but not necessarily a long term solution there either. Gotta bring in at least one more body here.
6- Offensive line Depth - With Edwards penciled in as a starter and Bates gone there is a need for depth along the offensive line. Van Denmark, Clapp and Anderson are the current depth and considering the Bills roster 9-10 offensive linemen and Clapp is not exactly an inspiring backup drafting a second depth offensive linemen in the mid-rounds would be needed.
7- Depth at corner - Corner is pretty solid but adding another boundary corner to replace Dane is a depth need that can be addressed in the mid to late rounds.
8- Running back depth - With Ty Johnson back and Cook in the fold the Bills have a nice tandem there but the Bills usually carry 3 RB's plus a FB and they could use a young cost controlled back with Cook likely seeking a new deal after this season. Hopefully they can find a back with some upside and who can add short term value as a returner or on special teams.
9- Kicker - Bass had a complete implosion last season, I don't see why the Bills cannot draft a kicker late if they don't consolidate their picks too much via trade up.
10- Punter - Same as kicker, if you address all of your other needs and have a late round pick you can't trade away grabbing a young punter to compete is not a bad idea.
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1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
I get your point on the onside kick rule and don't necessarily disagree. However, an extremely high percentage of the time everyone knows when the onside kick is coming anyway. Save for the maybe once a year someone tries a surprise onside on a kickoff not near the end of the game.
My issue with the 4th and 20 becomes when the team is going for it and fails...but is able to convert due to a DPI, defensive holding the new "hip drop rule" or some other flag influenced by the officials with a judgement call. Would lead to wayyyyyyyyyy more scrutiny than it's worth IMO.
The 4th and 20 rule has its flaws that's why I think only allowing a team to elect to go for it once in the 4th quarter is a decent measure as yeah a cheap "ticky tack" penalty gives the team going for it a first down without converting the yards. However, I would like to see the penalty rate on 4th and 20 or more conversions. I would imagine defenses knowing that they have a 19 yard cushion would likely play in a penalty averse manner. If the defensive penalty rate is low on those types of plays I would strongly consider implementing that rule if I were the NFL.
I don't think you should be able to go for it back to back as a tired defense may lapse but then if you are down three scores you can go for an onside kick if needed. In the end I like to see comebacks from 2 score deficits be more possible late in games, I think it adds a lot more excitement.
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17 hours ago, DapperCam said:
I wonder if it was because of his injury, or he saw the writing on the wall that he wasn’t going to crack the roster.
I think he may have said that after his injury he was contemplating retirement. I think if he really wanted to get into a camp on a minimum deal he could have but it is just not worth the risk for him. I always applaud a player for leaving with their health mostly intact. Football especially if you get into the pro-level (where you already between high school and college football have played 6-9 years before entering the league most likely) is going to take some toll on your body unless you are maybe a kicker or a backup QB who never plays. So if after a few years you don't want the risk anymore I think it is fully understandable. Harris didn't make a whole lot of money (relatively speaking) in his career and he only has 5 years vested in the league so his pension isn't going to be that large and he's not getting that until he is 55. So hopefully Harris has a good plan for the remaining years of his life and did some smart savings and investment these past 5 years.
3 hours ago, Mister Defense said:One of Beane's worst moves--getting rid of Singletary, one of the best all around backs in the league--running, catching, blocking--a teammate Allen said again and again was a vital part of the team's success, and someone who was always dependable, available...and replacing him with Harris, a back who had lost his ability to stay on the field and was clearly on his way out.
I am not a Beane basher, but this team could have used a back like Singletary last year, and instead, got almost zero from the guy who replaced him.
The Bills got a pretty good year out of Cook and found Ty Johnson late in the year who I think is as good as Singletary. Also early in the season Murray was solid it was only later in the year he was lackluster. I think there wasn't really much of an issue at the RB2 spot and having Cook getting more snaps and being a true RB1 is better than signing Singletary for another year.
I like Singletary he's a player whose at least average at everything and good in a couple of components. But he is not elite or dynamic in any capacity either. Ty Johnson gives you most if not all of what you would need in an RB2 and to round out the depth they can draft a RB in round 5-6 to handle return duties and add some cheap depth.
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25 minutes ago, Rigotz said:
Contract details are in. Vet minimum with ZERO guarantees. Beane the wizard at it again.
If anyone dislikes this deal, given the numbers, you don't know ball.
The way I look at this is he is a camp body who can be a serviceable back end of the rotation DE. I think the Bills usually carry 5-6 DE's (for some reason they list Von as an OLB but I am counting him as a DE for obvious reasons) so right now you are looking at three locks to make the roster/rotation in Groot, AJE and Von. So there's 2-3 spots up for grabs with Toohill and Kingsley Johnathan currently in the fold. I suspect they will draft at least one DE in the early or mid-rounds and maybe if the value is right they take a second DE in the draft later. So Toohill being in a competition for the last 2-3 DE rotation spots with Kingsley Johnathan, a rookie or two plus UDFA's and maybe another "camp vet" sounds like a good way to flesh out those last few spots at DE. I also love the option to cut him if he gets beaten out and take no penalty.
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3 hours ago, PBF81 said:
It might be time for our staff to recognize that hitting on edge-rushers in rounds one and two hasn't been their forte.
Groot and AJE aren't busts they aren't home run selections but they aren't bad players either. The only true "bust" they drafted high was Boogie. I wouldn't hate an edge rusher in round 1 or 2. My preference in the first two rounds of the draft is just get the most talented player at either side of the line or at WR. Just don't draft a safety (which while is somewhat of a need is not as pressing or impactful and I think depth can be had there later in the draft) or any other position that is not a glaring need or only a depth need like RB or CB.
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3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
I know some will hate it because "change bad" but I'm interested to see how this plays out. I like the idea of keeping returns relevant. Of course this would hit at a time where Buffalo doesn't have a clear "return specialist" rostered ..but let's see what the draft brings.
Bills have plenty of late round picks, I could easily see them drafting a RB with good return ability in round 6 where they have 3 selections. It would be a place where they could roster a player (they usually carry 3 RB's but only have 2 on the roster in Cook and Ty Johnson) and a spot in the draft where you could find a back with a bit of upside and return ability.
As far as the new kickoff rule I am OK with it. The kickoff in the traditional form was a very dangerous play and the last few seasons it mostly ended in touchbacks making it kind of a boring play. My only issue is that you have to declare an onsides kick which removes the element of surprise kicks and some strategy. I wish they would go with a rule where in the 4th quarter you can elect to one time instead of a kickoff go with a 4th and 20 to try to keep the ball. Seems like that would be more exciting than a declared onsides kick and make comebacks more possible.
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2 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:
Moving from 28 to 18 would cost way too much. What? Both of this year's 4th round picks and next year's 3rd.
Three names illustrate why a trade up would be foolish.
Sammy Watkins. As has already been pointed out, the trade up for him was a complete bust.
Mike Evans, in the same draft (who is still in the league) was available, though the Bills would have also had to trade up to get him, but for much less. Moving up from eight to six would have cost only a third-round pick. Oh well. Hindsight is 20-20.
Justin Jefferson was the fifth WR taken in the first round of the 2020 draft and has turned out to be the pick of the litter.
A smaller trade up I think most fans are good with even for a WR. Moving up 10 spots would probably cost you swapping pick 60 with a mid-round selection or multiple mid round selections plus a future pick. I think the issue I generally have is you should never trade away a future 1st for a non-QB player. The risk is just far too high and the reward not great enough.
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I would never trade a future first round selection for any player outside of a QB. In the NFL where injury is so volatile no draft prospect outside of a QB (who can play for 15+ years and completely turn around the fortunes of a franchise) is worth giving up a future first round pick for. From a sheer numbers perspective if you give up multiple premium picks for a WR or DE and that player gets hurt or is a bust not only did you burn a first on them but you burnt multiple selections on that player. Any player can get hurt or be a bust so the risk far outweighs the reward of robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak.
Given how Beane's philosophy is to keep the team is to sustain a winning core to keep a window for success open as long as possible and eventually you will get lucky, I don't see him "mortgaging the future" so to speak nor would it be prudent to do so.
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OP has a nice mock it makes sense for each team but each teams boards vary so wildly it’s going to always pan out differently. I don’t like Franklin for the Bills but that seems to be a player the front office is high on. If there’s a trade down I can live with it but otherwise at pick 28 I would rather go elsewhere for help along the lines.
Ideally I would like the Bills to trade down into the 30’s hopefully picking up a 3rd round pick swapped for the Bills 7th and depending on how far down they go a mid round pick for 2025.
The the Bills can take a WR around pick 35 and a top guard/center prospect at pick 60 then with the third round pick they acquired get the best defensive linemen.
Then in round 4 go defensive line and offensive line again (use a 6th to trade up a bit here). Round 5 take a corner, safety and a RB. Round 6 take a kicker and trade away a pick for a future selection.
You address all your needs getting two offensive and defensive linemen, a WR, an option at kicker and depth at corner, safety and running back while getting future selections which is always prudent and will help with any trade deadline deals-
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As long as the Bills take the best player at either offensive line, defensive line or WR I am good with the pick. The Bills taking a DT is a need as having another big guy next to Ed for the next 4 years is a good thing and offensive help can be had at pick 60. Same goes for DE.
I just don’t want to see a safety as not only do I think it’s not as premium a position anymore but as the combo they have in Rapp/Edwards I can live with. I also think the depth at safety can be addressed later on.
TE, QB, CB, RB, and LB are either not needs or depth needs that can be addressed in the mid or late rounds.
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4 minutes ago, DJB said:
Josh covers up plenty of Mcdermotts downfalls. If Sean had a mediocre QB and not a generational franchise guy he would be losing a lot more than winning and likely would have been fired.
McDermott is on his what 4th OC? He screwed up with Dennison and Dorsey, lost Dabol to a promotion. Hes bumbled on field decisions and blamed other coaches for losses. Hes now done the same to the players too.
This is my last year with McDermott. I need a SB appearance to want him back.
He won 9 games with Tyrod at QB. I think if McD had a competent but not elite QB he is routinely a 10 win coach. His play style of playing not to lose will win a lot of games against bad and average teams.There’s not many coaches in this league that can contend for more than 1-2 years without very good QB play. So saying McD needs a QB is what most coaches need.
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It’s at a point where one more playoff failure has got to put him on the hot seat. I don’t hate McD like a lot of others on here. But I think there is a saturation point where a locker room needs a new voice to get them over the top so to speak. I love everything McD has done here turning this team from the drought to a serious contender. And I don’t even think he should be fired if he fails in 2024 either but if puts up back to back playoff failures it’s a strong consideration to get someone else in there.
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I do not hate the idea of using picks 28 and 60 on suring up the lines, but I think WR in round 4 or early round 5 would fill a nice need for depth and to develop longer term players for the position.
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2 hours ago, HappyDays said:
I don't know much about the player, but I'm glad they are waiting until the end of the second wave of FA to sign depth DL players like this, instead of their previous MO of agreeing to terms with players like Tim Settle on day one of the legal tampering period. This year Beane still made that mistake with a couple players that were on our roster in 2023, but finally stopped himself from making that mistake with other teams' UFAs. Baby steps.
The team did sign Daquon fairly early in free agency in 2022 so it is a crap shoot. But the Bills cap situation was different in 2022 so they could have splurged early on more so than these past two seasons.
I think with the current cap situation both now and going forward it’s always going to be more prudent to wait for that initial wave to be over and then sort through the second and third tier guys for good fits and good value.
I loved the Poona Ford signing last off season and that didn’t really work out but it was low risk high reward so it didn’t massively impact the Bills having a subpar 5th DT.
Overall I think if the Bills are going to run out a deep defensive line rotation and have Josh Allen on a big contract the Bills are going to have to find value free agents and hit on draft picks in order to keep that up. Johnson seems like a solid pickup so hopefully it works out well as a one year rental
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14 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:
He'd be a very good backup to DQ, considering the inconsistent garbage we saw from Settle, Ford, Phillips & Joseph.
I thought Joseph was a solid run stuffer. Right when the Bills signed him the run defense up the middle and overall improved from what I remember. He was a nice fill in for DQ’s run defense.You are right about Settle who’s a complete JAG and Poona Ford was terrible up until the end of the season when he showed a little bit of solid play.
Jordan Phillips always seems to get hurt when he starts to play well. Wouldn’t actually mind bringing back Phillips if he could be a fringe roster camp body.
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I think it’s important to keep the WR room stacked with good young talent while Josh Allen is QB. I would love to see the Bills first two picks be WR/G in either order.
I think the defensive needs that the Bills have can mostly be filled in the mid rounds. Depth at CB and Safety scream 5th round picks while adding to the defensive line rotation can be done with the round 4 selections.
So I think the focus of the top 2 picks being offense is what I would like to see. Of course whose available at what pick is going to make an impact so I wouldn’t be too dissatisfied if they got defensive line help at either pick 28 or 60
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Wouldn’t hate it position wise. Solidifying the offensive line and getting more weapons, long term growth, plus depth at WR would solidify the offense and I think McD could work the mid and late rounds to add to the defense.
I am not as clued into the specific prospects just looking the positions.
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2 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:
Sorry you a so picky. What NFL team has good depth on their O line? Seriously, most NFL teams don't even have good starting O linemen.
Why didn't people like Clapp? He looks like a pretty big dude.
Last year I thought the Bills entered in with really good offensive line depth especially along the interior. In the past I have thought the Bills really attempted good offensive line depth when they had guys like Ty Nesheke and Bates on the bench. Last year Bates and Edwards were quality backups. They also had attempted better veteran depth at tackle where Quessenberry and Snell both vets were competing with Brown at RT. Obviously Snell retired and Quess was waived in favor of picking up Ifedi and mainly going with Van Denmark as a swing tackle.
This year I think Van Denmark is a solid backup and Alex Anderson has potential but there's really not a whole lot on the bench and Edwards starting at LG is OK but leaves a lot to be desired.
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1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
There are some positions I can take some fan input in. Offensive line is not one of them. Most fans don't really watch the OL, they follow the ball. And many wouldn't know what to look for if they were watching.
I agree fan input can be flawed but I think a good amount of hardcore fans (the types that post here or on Reddit about their teams) can have a good feel for offensive line play. They can tell where pressure is coming from and where the team struggles to run the ball. As a big fan who watches every game and obsesses over breakdowns I feel like you can at least have a reasonable take on how good or bad an offensive line player is if you watch them play consistently. Not 100% accurate but a reasonable data point to consider.
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22 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Sign the papers man! Then get Calais Campbell & Blackmon or Simmons in here
& we are good to DRAFT
I think they are comfortable with Rapp and Edwards at the safety and will likely bring in a rookie for depth and competition while Hamlin and Lewis are primary backups and special teams players. But I do think this team needs rotational DT's. The Bills usually carry 5 DT's with 4 active on game day. Right now the Bills have 2 on the roster. Campbell would be a great add he will be 38 but is actually coming off a solid season with 7 sacks and good advanced metrics. I think DT is going to have some depth added as I can't see them going into the draft needing to grab 2-3 bodies there.
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3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
Well, let's see.
His PFF (yes I know PFF sucks for grading OL) for last year was 56.7
BUT he had 702 snaps with 1 penalty and 1 sack given up. Not too shabby for a depth role.
I actually think PFF isn't a terrible oline metric even if it is flawed. That being said I tend to go by what fans who watch their teams incessantly say about the players. Chargers fans said mixed things, seems like he was filling in decently as a backup for the most part. I don't hate the signing but I do hope the Bills view him as competition for a depth role and not a key reserve.
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On 3/13/2024 at 7:13 AM, H2o said:
Here is a list of guys we met with at the Combine apparently.
All of these make sense except Bo Nix? The Bills are not going to draft a QB high up and Nix is likely to go at least in the first 2-3 rounds. Maybe just kicking the tires on a player?
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I hope this is more of a camp body pickup. He's not highly regarded by any fans of the teams he played on even as a backup they say he was pretty bad. While he is coming off of a injury Chargers fans did say he played decently for the most part last season so that's a positive. I really hope the Bills invest at least two draft picks into the offensive line. I don't like the depth and Edwards while not a bad starter is not someone I am confident in. Outside of Van Denmark as a capable swing tackle I don't really like what the team has depth wise along the offensive line.
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Beane Discusses Draft Strategy w/ Pat McAfee
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
The Bills are going to take a WR or DL at pick 28. I don't think they view safety as a starting need but rather a depth need which can be addressed in the mid-rounds. The offensive line should be in play at pick 28 but I think they also look at that as more of a depth need.
My ideal draft is the Bills can trade down to around the pick 35-40 range and pick up a 3rd round pick swapped for the Bills 7th and maybe a pick in 2025 depending on how far they go. Then they go WR early in round 2 and offensive line at pick 60. Then in round 3 go defensive line and in round 4 go defensive line and safety. The rest of the draft can be used to assess the depth needs at RB, OL and CB along with possibly getting a kicker and or punter.