billsfan89

It was one of the worst situations for MD to be in. Mario was one of the worst influences, the organization early on was cheap and not able to develop him mentally, and then when Rex and new ownership took over he had a big contract, bad influences on and off the team, and an inflated head. It was just destined to be a train wreck long term despite his amazing ability.

Clowney is a lot better than Murphy and on a one year deal keeps his motivation. I wouldn't sign Clowney for a 16 million dollar deal but I would offer him a deal in the range of 12-13 million which is only 4-5 million more than you would be paying Murphy. I think for a 4-5 million dollar hit it would be worth it to try and upgrade the DE spot with a player who can be very very disruptive.

I don't see any regression in this defense. The D-line is 9 deep with quality players, Milano and Edumonds are one of the best LB pairs in the league and they are young. Klein is a solid third LB. Hyde and Poyer don't have major injuries and are 30 and 29 respectively I think they should be good for at least 1-2 more seasons. White is in his prime as an All-Pro Corner, T. Johnson is a good slot corner and they have Levi Wallace and other good options opposite White none of whom should see significant regression. I think they should remain a top 5 defense, barring unreasonable levels of injuries. I think the offense will play better by simply having Diggs and continuity (Last year they entered in with 9 new starters on offense this year only 1.) The defense doesn't need to be leaned on too heavily. I also think with the ST additions they made the ST unit could moderately improve a solid unit. This team is also well coached and good at developing players, which might mean the emergence of players who are lesser known esp on the defensive side of the ball. To me it is all on Josh, can he put together a modestly better season? If so this team will win 12 games and be in contention for a bye.

It is hard to say that AJ Green or Julio Jones wouldn't have been better picks at #3 but at the time Dareus was considered as sure fire high ceiling low floor type prospect as you could get at a position where the Bills needed a lot of help at. Almost Everyone wanted the Bills to take him or Von Miller whomever was there at pick 3 and sign him to an extension. I am not sure if Mario being on the team and Rex showing up right when he got the extension made things worse? It was just such a drastic fall off form 2015-2017 from 2013-2014. In 2014 Dareus followed a Pro-Bowl caliber 2013 season by being one of the top 2-3 DT's in the league behind Suh and McCoy. He was 25 why wouldn't you want to keep that guy?

That's the proper criticism of the trade was why not do it in the 2018 off-season? The rush defense collapsed the rest of the season. As much as Dareus fell off as a interior disruptor he was still an elite level rush defender and it could have cost the team the 2017 playoffs by trading him a bit too early. BUT I understand that if someone is becoming such a huge problem in the locker room that it is looking like it will be toxic then maybe it was just too much of a risk to keep him around.

There are some positions that could be upgraded but we are talking about marginal upgrades to the edges of the roster. Punter, veteran TE (Would love someone better and more reliable than Kroft) and depth in the secondary and at linebacker are all positions the could be upgraded but none of those positions are likely to be the difference. This season comes down to Josh. If he says the same this is a 10-11 win team tough but lucky to win a playoff game. If he regresses this is a 8-9 win bubble team. If he takes a modest step up to being a top 12-10 QB I think this is a 12+ win team with a legit shot to win 2 playoff games or more. Josh has the receiving core, offensive line and RB combo to put together a good offense. The Special teams unit (which was decent last year) got upgraded and the defense should return to being a top 5 unit. With reasonable health this team is going as far as Josh is taking them. I think the defensive line has enough to produce a consistent pass rush, yes it would be nice to swap Murphy for Clowney on a one year deal but I think they are counting on interior pass rush to produce a lot of pressure and Addision and Hughes to be good pass rushers off the edge. I think TE is a concern because if Kroft is hurt and Knox is a year away from being consistent this team becomes much more reliant on 3-4 players in the receiving game which could stifle the offense just enough against elite defenses. Hopefully Kroft proves everyone wrong and Knox is more consistent but I get that being a concern on the roster.

Dak would have to improve his level of play to justify his contract if it was 35 million aav. And that's a big risk to pay on speculation. I think Dak is a very poor mans version of Russell Wilson his first 3-4 years in the league. He manages the game, uses his legs to get some cheap yardage and makes good plays on third down. However Dak unlike Wilson isn't as good of a passer even on the run. Wilson is a good passer in the pocket and an elite passer on the run. Dak is a mediocre passer from the pocket and very good on the run. Can Dak elevate his play? Certainly, but why would you want to pay 35 million with a 90+ million dollar guarantee to hope someone can get better to justify their contract? Dak also has played with a very good O-line, one of the best RB's in the league and a decent complement of receivers that is now stacked and a defense that has been good at times. Paying Dak 35 million means the defense has to get worse or his complementary pieces have to get worse. That's not a winning recipe. Would another team pay Dak 35 million? I don't know, there are some QB thirsty teams out there that would. Cousins a few years ago got offered 30 million and took 27 million fully guaranteed for 3 years.

The offense did get better as the season went on, by the middle of the season Josh was cutting down on the turnovers and playing more within himself and the rushing attack (besides Gore) got better. Yes the Houston game was a big let down but one game doesn't define the offenses entire performance throughout the latter portion of the season. I feel that Josh and the offense might have been playing timidly with the lead and then trying to make up too much when they were down. The team scored an average of 19.75 points in its first 8 games and then in its last 7 (excluding the Jets game because they didn't play the starters) it scored an average of 21.4 points. I think even by the eye test the offense was just more fluid and cohesive than it was in the first 8 games despite playing as hard if not a harder defensive schedule.

A big factor people ignore is the fact that last years offense featured 9 new starters for a second year QB. This year most of the starters return that should only help Josh.

Raw prospect showed signs of being raw not shocking. I like Knox and although I think he is a year away from being a consistent starter I think he certainly brings a lot of positives that he can build on.

RB is a position where experience is less prevalent. Yeldon and Jones have been in the league for awhile and Singletary had a year to work with Gore. I also wouldn't be shocked to see them being in a vet RB as a camp body and to push Yeldon.

The Patriots offense in 2018 was a ground and pound offense too. The Pats success is going to be determined by the offensive line and if they can get Sanu and Harry going. In the end I think the Pats will be a 6-8 win team behind a strong defense and special teams but with an offense that will struggle against better defenses.

2015 was insanely frustrating because the one major hole on the roster was thought to be QB and possibly Oline but InCog and a good rookie year from Miller fixed that and Tyrod was a serviceable QB. But it was the defense that regressed massively from a top 3 unit despite having a "defensive guru" as a head coach. Had the defense just been upper midlevel they probably would have won 10 games and competed for a wildcard spot. Had the defense stayed the same if would have been an 12 win season.

The Dareus trade was addition by subtraction. Not only did the Bill's get rid of his contract a year early (which helped them have a ton of spending money for 2019 free agency) but they also got rid of a locker room problem when they were trying to establish a new culture. The actually draft pick compensation is fairly inconsequential. I do think that the 2017 defense did suffer from Dareus absence in rush defense but long term it was worth it. It is unfortunate that Dareus never worked out. From 2011 to 2014 Dareus was a good to great player and even in the Rex and first McD years he still was a capable player. But you can't live up to that type of contract by simply being a better than average player.

I think the idea would be to cut Murphy to both free up the D-line spot and ease the cap hit. Cutting Murphy saves about 8 million on the cap so if you cut Murphy and sign Clowney to a one year 13 million dollar deal you only lose 5 million in roll over. I would be all for giving Clowney a somewhat low ball one year offer, 12 million with 1.5 million in incentives. That's about a 13.5 million hit total but after you cut Murphy you are only looking at about a 5.5 million dollar difference. I think rolling the dice on losing 5.5 million in roll over money is worth the potentially massive upgrade you would get between Murphy and Clowney. I think Clowney's stat total last year was a bit misleading, he was a very disruptive player and having him on a one year deal might be the motivation he needs. I think going to far beyond the 13 million dollar range is stupid as yes you can't have a guy that isn't a sure fire talent eating away more than 4 or 5 million in roll over.

Spencer Long comes to mind if Bates lights it up and D.Williams has a good camp. But I think they want to roll 4 deep along the Oline. I think a Johnson on the Dline could be a late round pick type deal.

Brown performed like a low end WR1 last season. If he stays healthy I think he can easily be a high end WR2.

People were legit saying Lamar Jackson will need to switch positions.

Jacksonville would give him a shot to compete for a starting job and of course the Pats probably would toss him into a QB competition. Overall I think he isn't going to have any better shot to start other than being in a QB competition.

They could make cap space and backload his deal to have a small cap hit in 2020. It isn't like teams can't maneuver the salary cap to get 5-7 million in space.

That's not a bad fit, but I think Dalton would prefer to have a chance at a starting position. In Jacksonville and NE he has a chance to start. With the Steelers he is definitely a backup.

If I have to predict anything I would say that he goes to Jacksonville as a backup who competes for a starting job. Patriots would be the next likely destination.

I think he would actually be a decent option at backup but I think there are teams like the Pats that would give him a contract that wouldn't be justifiable for the Bills to give a backup esp when Barkley isn't a bad back up.

Or the Bills develop him behind Josh (While having Barkley as a short term option) and after 2-3 years they can flip him for a good pick? For a 5th round pick when you have no glaring needs on the roster I don't see the harm in having a guy developing on your bench into either a solid backup 2 years from now or trade bait.

I get the idea of wanting your own people in the organization but you can't just replace everyone even if they were related to someone who left on less than stellar terms. It also isn't like this guy is involved in football operations directly. He is a staff lawyer most likely reviewing contracts and legal documents. I don't think he is going to cause much of a stir.