It's just as easy to believe that the truly talented (physically and mentally) 1st round QBs will survive a rough 1st season and excel.
lNo reason to believe a guy like Zach Wilson or Bryce young or Anthony Richardson wouldn't have flamed out on a team like the Bills. All ridiculously overdrafted, like most washouts. Likewise, no one thought an actual generational talent like P Manning would wash out of the league or become a journeyman backup after a rough rookie year.