thebandit27

This is true for every single NFL player.

The Stanford debacle notwithstanding, I'm feeling the potential of your boy Liufau.

Jon Scott for the win.

Is there any substantive reasoning behind this statement? We're listening...

I didn't make the comparison; I responded to it The Bills have scored the following offensive points in their 7 games: 7 24 26 16 23 45 25 That's 23.7 offensive points per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The question that wrought the response that I quoted was whether or not the SF game skewed the data. For the remaining 6 games, the average is 20.7 offensive points per game, which would rank 23rd. So yes, it does skew the data by a relevant percentage.

Actually, I keep a chart so that I know offensive points scored versus defensive. And just so you know, NE has zero defensive TDs in 2016. Moreover, the point is to add context to the discussion of the team's offensive production. Saying that they routinely put up 30 points and giving the offense credit for that is incorrect.

Just for reference: All 3 of those games included a defensive TD

Agreed. In general, the middle of the field will tend to be more difficult for everyone because of the amount of traffic. With sideline patterns--provided the QB has the arm strength to drive the ball to the boundary--there's no danger to overthrowing the ball. The sideline gives the QB a "safe space" where there's no negative impact.

For sure...what you can pick out of his performances are some key indicators that he can be successful in the NFL. Despite being coached out of it, he manages to scan the field and generally make good decisions. He definitely bails from the pocket too soon and relies on his athleticism too much, which is why I've occasioned to liken him to Tyrod. On the other hand, he's made some real "wow" throws this season. His 1st TD throw vs La Tech on a slant off the zone-read was an NFL throw all day. Quick decision, perfect placement, on a rope into a tight window between two defenders. You can see it at 1:50 below:

Really? It's not your "job" to provide any stats or evidence whatsoever to support a statement that you made? We should all just trust you because you remember everything flawlessly? Gotcha. I'll remember that for context whenever I see you make a claim. Seriously man, it's awfully hard to take you seriously when you won't support your own statements. As for the chart, my guess is that you didn't understand it when you read it. The greatest number of points are on the 9-route, which breaks neither inside or outside. The next highest number of points? Yep, the slant, which breaks (you guessed it) inside. The next highest? The curl, which breaks (you guessed it), inside. So again, you're completely wrong about him living on the sideline. Now I'll refrain from any further responses until you provide something, anything, that supports your stance. Be well.

But, Fitzpatrick!!1!1!!1

No question it was an illegal hit; can't launch and hit in the head/neck, hence the flag. The only question is whether or not it was a cheap shot, as in: did he intentionally try to hit him in the head/neck? I'd guess no based off his reaction.

^ so the entire response is "screw the numbers, my eyes tell me the truth"? Even though I prefaced my statements with "no chart for receptions, just routes", you leaned on that as your counterpoint. I can't respond to opinions that lack any contextual evidence.

Extremely disappointed in Darby for the way he played that final TD to Stills Inexcusable bumbling coverage on the most critical play of the game

Mahomes

Thanks for the sentiment. Re Gilmore, it's more a choice between keeping him or bringing in a FA corner or help at S or WR in FA. If they're bent on keeping him, which would make me happy, I think their first move would be to part ways with Graham. I suppose they could also extend Eric Wood or add a year to Kyle's deal to create space as well. In the end, I think there's a better-than-50/50 chance that Kyle isn't here next year...there's only so many dollars to go around, and this team needs to add multiple receivers and safeties, plus a quality backup QB. It's always difficult to trade a franchise tagged player given that a team needs to give up at least a 1st round pick and a boatload of guaranteed money in a new contract, plus the player needs to have signed his franchise tender to even make it possible. If they tag him then I expect they'll be planning to keep him for one more year, otherwise I suspect they'll let him walk and take whatever compensatory pick they're awarded. I did like another poster's idea of trying to sign a cap casualty like Brandon Carr at CB. It doesn't count agains the comp pick formula and would make a solid enough replacement for Gilmore while Seymour develops.

So you want to characterize Sammy as "glass" despite the fact that he missed a total of 3 of his first 32 games leading into this season, but you're fine with Goodwin's toughness despite the fact that he missed 24 of his first 32 games, and 30 of his first 48? Do you realize that makes no sense? Even if Sammy missed this entire season, he'd have missed 17 of his first 48 games compared to 30 for Goodwin. It's not even close between the two, and frankly I'm shocked that anyone that's even vaguely familiar with this team could be wrong by that much about the issue. As to "find the stat", well, I don't see anywhere that lists the distribution of catches, but I did find the following: http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-only-one-concern-can-hold-sammy-watkins-back-from-his-ceiling.html According to the above, in 2015... 23.5% of his routes were fly patterns 50.4% of his routes were inward-breaking 26.1% of his routes were outward-breaking If half of his routes were inward-breaking, that doesn't come close to supporting your assertion that he "lived at the sidelines". It's also worth noting that (from the same link) his success percentage was higher overall on inward-breaking routes than outward-breaking, so that's not exactly supportive of your stance either. Also, just for fun, his first big game in the NFL pretty much silences your entire point all by itself: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014091400/2014/REG2/dolphins@bills#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000394935&tab=recap Now, if you want to go ahead and find a catch distribution chart that backs up your assertion, I'll listen.

Walter Powell catches a deep TD.

Again, the issue is why they went light on the suspension claiming no other confirmed incidents when they had to intervene in one themselves?

Wait, so the guy that never landed on IR until this year is "glass", but the guy that's been on IR every season of his career is not? And yes, Sammy has made many catches over the middle and in traffic--if you haven't seen them then I'm confident that you haven't been watching

For me, the issue is that the NFL handed down a lesser suspension for his DV arrest than the standard that they themselves set based upon the premise that it was an isolated incident and they couldn't verify that other incidents took place. The suspension, however, happened after the NFL themselves had to intervene in a domestic disturbance at the pro bowl subsequent to his arrest. Those two facts alone point to gross negligence on the NFL's behalf.

The team is 4-0 with Woods occupying the #1 WR spot.

Right--getting to 5-2 is exactly where this team needs to be to have a clear path to the postseason. I would never want to write any game off as a loss, but beating Miami sets the table for the team to be above 0.500 coming out of the bye despite having to face NE and then a road MNF game against Seattle.

I'm sure they can--I was intentionally being conservative

I'm working off of this as a starting point: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2017/ The team has 35 players under contract for a total of ~$140M. Let's assume a cap increase of $10M and a rollover of $5M (it's currently $6.6M, but we'll have to account for in-season signings, so $5M is conservative). This puts the 2017 cap at $170M, so I agree with the $30M in space that the OP suggests. RFA Tenders Mike Gilislee - Original round (assume 8% increase from previous year, so figure $1.8M) Ryan Groy - Original round ($1.8M) Colton Schmidt - Original round ($1.8M) Do not tender Meeks, Ola, or Ikard. That $5.4M knocks the cap space down to $25.4M 2017 Draft Picks 2016 draft picks accounted for a total of $5.541M against the cap--if we bump this by another 8%, we get to almost exactly $6M This knocks the cap space down to $19.4M UFAs to re-sign Zach Brown - use the Trevathan contract and assume 2017 cap hit of $6.35M Leger Douzable - give him a slight bump to $800k Lerentee McCray - give him a slight bump to $800k Corey White - give him a slight bump to $800k Jerome Felton - give him a slight bump to $800k Justin Hunter - give him a $1.5M one-year "prove it" deal The above totals $11.05M, which brings us down to $8.4M in cap space with 51 players under contract. This is the starting point IMO. The above assumes that the following guys are allowed to walk: Gilmore Woods Mills Bryant Manuel Bush Goodwin Duke Williams Brandon Tate Chris Gragg Colt Anderson Robert Blanton Greg Salas LorAx Spikes Humber IK The big decisions come down to the following guys: Tyrod - $15.1M cap hit remains if he's picked up; $13.1M in cap space gained if he's not Kyle Williams - $8.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $6.8M in cap space gained if he's cut Corey Graham - $5.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $3.8M in cap space gained if he's cut