JESSEFEFFER

It was a video I came across on Twitter and I did not know who made it. Was it his? It struck me that a good portion of those errant throws weren't about his accuracy at all.

I think I need to issue an APB for the point of my thread because everyone is missing it. Almost half of the supposedly inaccurate throws in the video were errant due to something BESIDES HIS ACCURACY. That's my point. Agree or don't.

This is someone's idea of evidence for how inaccurate Josh is. Some of these are either bad or poorly timed throws, for sure. The question I have is how many of these were either tipped by a defender at the line or are instances where his arm hit in the middle of the throwing motion? It is tough to tell for sure as most of the time it's a blur of an arm releasing a blur of a ball going by a blur of a hand or arm. I think there are at least 6 of them. On some of them I remember cursing at Josh for missing such an open receiver. Anyways, I think this sort of thing happens way more than often than anyone ever notices either live, in the TV replay or in the post game analysis. You would need a high speed camera zoomed in on the ball to see enough detail to be 100 % sure. Just looking for some TBD opinions. Inaccurate Throws????? :03 Not sure. The ball seems to skip upward as it passes Steeler DL. :12 Not sure but the ball enters the wash near Redskin's #91's arm. :21 Throw needs a low trajectory. The DL extends his arm out about shoulder high. I think he got it. :25 Obvious contact with Josh's forearm during the throw. :37 Not 100% sure but looks like a tip by the DT as it looked like his fingers flexed backward. :44 Two Pats defenders in his grill. Either Josh short armed it or his arm was hit. :50 Leaping Browns defender in Josh's face. The ball looks slowed and lacks the normal zip. I think he got it. 1:11 Can't tell for sure but the ball might have gone between DL's hands. Looks volleyballed up and wobbly. 1:27 1st quarter vs. Ravens. I think I gave a wtf at Josh from section 228 at this throw but it looks like Josh's arm and defender's are on a collision course. Defender's arm looks to take a post collision dip. 1:49 Cody Ford is waltzed backwards like Ginger Rodgers and kicks the shin of Josh's plant foot in the middle of the throw. Confrimation Bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors. “Give a man a reputation as an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon.” ― Mark Twain

Technically, that's what we do here. Almost everything discussion worthy starts with someone's subjective opinion. My problems with the unit grades were the O-line was too low (far from average) and Josh being so much lower than Baker. It says that the offense needs to step it up which it has every chance to do and an injection of talent on that side of the ball would be helpful. Although, I would agree with you that win probabilities and predraft unit rankings seems way premature and therefore higher on the "waste of time" scale than most topics.

Great. My initial search did not find it. I did find a nice back story on Keith when he was inducted to the Syracuse Sports HoF.

I had listened to the podcast version of this but it mirrors pretty closely this article. A big miss is the fact that an elite RB can add much to an offense as a pass catcher.

I remember Keith Moody scoring a TD on a return, taking out a prop yellow flag and then spiking the ball on it. I guess he had lost too many decent returns due to penalties. I wonder what Google has to say of this.

I will fess up to an having an anti Cowboys hype agenda. It's lasted most of my lifetime. The "America's Team" label handed to them, the number of times we get force fed their games in primetime, the lingering angst from the Super Bowl losses, the reptilian mug of Jerry Jones and the amphibian one of Jimmy Johnson. As for Dak, starting 64 of 64 is maybe his best stat. That is not easy. I would counter that the Cowboys were +10 wins his rookie year and only +6 his last 3 years combined. There has been something wrong with that team and I doubt that Mike McCarthy fixes it. I think it may be a culture problem, maybe too many "me guys." Dak will get paid but I doubt he ever wins the Super Bowl or even plays in one. Just my very biased opinion.

The one play I remember was Josh Allen stiff arming his face to the turf on a QB draw TD run at New Era. Probably not one of his best. I wonder if he was one of those hitting Josh as he launched that TD pass to Foster. I'd have to go back and look.

QBs used to have to win consistently to get big money. Now they get paid for racking up big passing stats because it seems like the two are connected. I posted in a different thread about the Bills big road wins vs. the Vikings and Cowboys. Josh made plays and Cousins/Prescott had big passing stats in games their teams were not even close.

Ironic to be talking so much about Cousins and Prescott considering how the Bills beat both their teams, on the road, on a CBS game with Nance and Romo doing the broadcast. Josh made wow plays and lead them to upset wins. Prescott and Cousins racked up bigger passing stats but did little to keep their teams in the game.

Art Wander (Tiny Tot of the Kilowatt) advocated for Reich to be the starter for the remainder of the playoffs after the comeback game. Many felt that way but I don't think anyone was saying that JK should be permanently benched. He was injured and his return was in question. That's when Polian had the "Get out of town!" defense for Jim. That's the way I remember it anyways.

Yeah, I'd prefer one of the 3 already gone. Some think RBs 1a/1b should fit the offense as interchangeable parts and therefore do not necessarily give the defense a clue as to what is coming. Others would want different, complementary skills that would be used with a bias toward the situational need. I'd like to see a more explosive, power runner who is good in the passing game and represents a bigger playmaking threat.

I just gave CEH his 22nd vote. Question: If we take a RB at #2 in this mock, do some people's heads still explode? That should be reserved for the if the Bills do it I would think. Just wondering.

I am happy with the progress he has made so far. The team in general is ahead of schedule and is poised to be more relevant in the next few years than they have been for decades. Josh continues to develop his QB skills while making plays I've never seen other QBs make and winning often enough to keep his job. He is a rare package of size, athleticism and self awareness. Fun days ahead once we get to the post pandemic world. I should add this. When he made that lateral with around a full minute to go before regulation ended, I openly freaked and yelled that he had gone "bat**** crazy." That was maybe his worst QB moment ever as a Bill. In that situation, almost in game tying fg range and with about a full minute left, I was chanting "protect the ball, protect the ball, protect the ball" as he was making that scramble run due to the likelihood that defenders were likely to try to strip it. Then he pitched it while under tackle! That was somewhat ironic as I had said that he should play like Bruce Wayne most of the time but could play the hero when the Bat Signal went up. Now we have to worry about unnecessary, bat**** crazy attempts to make a play. Oh well. He will be fun to watch in year 3. By the way, as someone pointed out, the Bills are 11 and 5 in the last 16 games that Josh started and finished. So nice to win while he learns to balance situational risk vs. reward decision making. Of those 5 losses, I'd say the worst one was the Eagles game which was the also the most windy game of the 2019 season. I think that one was when the onfield, fireworks prop blew over during the pregame. Basically beat by QB scrambles and screen passes.

The Bills faced tougher defenses last year than offenses. 8 games against top 13 in DVOA defense. Seems rather balanced.

I have no problem with Beane's stated reasons in favor of making the trade. He is doing his job well.

I'd be curious if Chinn was there too when he did the mock. Joe Marino called Chinn a better version of Dugger and 2 years younger.

This is a match to my thinking. Glaring as in obvious but easy to fill as in that there are many decent options to meet the need. I was making some mashed potatoes of the instant type (free tip : throw in some frozen fries to make it better.) I open the fridge and see there is no more milk. My kids were set on some potatoes with gravy as part of their lunch. Milk is a glaring kitchen need but options for getting some are plentiful. Many think a first round RB = buying a cow. A few think that a 2nd round RB = buying a dairy farm. Thus, my hope that an elite talent might be there at 54 or a little earlier. We know Beane likes to target guys they view as elite that are falling. An elite RB talent in round 2 might be a sensible solution that is bpa and adds another reliable playmaker to the offense for 4 years or more. I solved the milk problem by adding half a tub of Bison dip and some shredded cheese. Not ideal but in a pinch it did the job and the kids ate it up per usual. That is Yeldon, imo. Ok in a pinch until you can get to Wegman's.

At no point in the discussion did they bring up that a well rounded RB is a huge asset to a passing game, much as Thurman was and that should be a point that is considered. Yes, "running backs don't matter" is an extreme position. Yes, the passing game matters more than the running game. Yes, other positions are more correlated to winning and losing. Yes, rules changes have devalued runners. Yes, rbs tend to lose their effectiveness earlier in their careers. Bruce argues these points. But, he finished by saying that if a highly talented RB falls to 54 the Bills should consider making the pick because it might improve the roster more by replacing Yeldon than say a less highly rated CB would that forces EJ Gaines off the roster. I almost hope they get a RB they think is elite in the 2nd round and maybe even trade up a little to get him just to watch some heads explode around here. Hah! My position is that the next RB talent chosen to pair with Singletary is likely to play a bigger role on the team in 2020 and the 3 years follow than any other player they draft. There are no other obvious holes in the roster and most everyone else they drat will have to battle to make the 55. So, why not do what they can to make this an elite talent.

One way to use this comprehensive view of NFL rosters is to consider draft implications. I am among those who would see RB as an important need. He scored the Bills group as a .9 but there are 6 teams worse including the Rams at .1. They pick at 52 which is interesting. Phins, Chiefs, Lions, Bucs and Bears are the others. Steelers and Colts are scored low there too. Maybe these are the teams the Bills might need to trade in front of at some point to get a RB they covet.

If that is some sort of Rorschach test, one of us failed.

The probability is high that the next RB added to the roster will see more meaningful playing time than any other future player that is added either via the draft or free agency. Injuries can always mess with that but I would think that getting as dynamic a playmaker as possible for this role could have a big impact on 2020. If Singletary is nicked up and doesn't dress then this person will become even more important. A game at New Era has 30+ mph winds and Singletary and his new running mate are leaned on even more. Hopefully they could develop a screen game to use in such conditions much as the Eagles did. Whoever the Bills add should have a good short yardage between the tackles pedigree and be an asset in the passing game. Let the game situation and their production determine whether Singletary or the "New RB Guy" is in the game. The Bills may be willing to see who falls to them and if they do not like the values presented to them, look to add a vet after the draft. Since there likely will be no OTAs or minicamp, there is no reason to make such a decision until after the draft.

Green Bay didn't want him back. Hyde seemed shocked/hurt by that.

He must be blaming the Cowboy"s coaches and Steelers QB situations for their underwhelming 2019 performances. It's like he's saying their players had nothing to do with it.