Thurman#1

To go up 5 - 6 slots they're going to probably have to give up their 4th rounder. With only three picks in the top 130, I don't see that happening. I guess we'll see.

Dugger, Greenard and Terrell Lewis available at #53. I imagine the FO would be thrilled if it falls that way. Thanks, Gunner. Great stuff. I see maybe four or five other guys of interest going in the next ten or so picks. Should be interesting.

"Yards receiving are usually considered pretty reliable," you say. Yeah, reliable, but totally unreliable in terms of showing what you say it shows. Reliable to show how many yards the guy had receiving during that specific period? Yeah. Reliable for deciding who is better than who? Ridiculous. Receiving yards for one year are reliable to show how good or bad a receiver is? No, obviously not. If you believe that, you have to believe that Jordan Howard is awful at catching passes since he only had 69 yards this year, and the 298 he had as a rookie don't count for you. Darren Sproles must suck as a pass receiver for you because he only had 24 yards this year, and looking at only one year under one system in one set of conditions is apparently enough to show how good someone is. It's a pathetic argument. If you try to use this year's yards to decide who's good, you'd have to say that 2019 proved that Tevin Coleman is a worse receiver than Singletary. Yeah, that would be a ridiculous contention, but if you go with your logic, 2019 proved that even though when given the chance, Coleman has showed himself to be an excellent receiver when called upon, having years of 421 and 299 yards. But this year, Coleman had fewer than Singletary, so by your faulty logic we know Singletary is better. More, we can apparently show that TJ Yeldon is only 2/3rds of the receiver that Singletary is. according to the Maryland Method. Sure, Yeldon had 487 yards in 2018 when they threw to him, but by your logic, that doesn't matter, as apparently considering only the 2019 stats is enough to show how good someone is. By your argument you'd have to say that last seasons proves Singletary is a better pass receiver than Breida, for another. You'd have to be willing to kid yourself that last season proves that Singletary is twice the receiver that Ty Montgomery is ... it's all there in black and white as last year Montgomery only had 90 yards while Singletary had 194. It's a poor argument. And your argument about saying that the guy isn't an alcoholic because he lasted the whole season is precisely on point ... in showing how completely you've missed the point. Either way, an argument that simply doesn't work. Say a guy doesn't drink much for a whole season, as you suggest. Again, doesn't even begin to show whether he's an alcoholic or not. Was he in jail for that season? Was he a dry alcoholic, who's got his two-year badge but will be an alcoholic for life? Was he on naltrexone? Did he hire a guy to stop him drinking by keeping him away from temptation? When you have a small sample size you can't prove squat. Just as it is with football players, if you want to have even a slightly complete idea, you have to look at him over time and in different situations. If you don't want to be included in the "We don't know," category, fair enough. But in that case, the category you're putting yourself in is the "Doesn't know, but thinks he does" group. Which is the saddest of all groups. And man is your last paragraph a sad stab at logic. I highlighted it in red above, for everyone, where you were forced to completely misquote me to attempt to make a point. First, I said, "Singletary could easily become a much more frequent target next year. Or not. We don't know." You, in apparent desperation, reply to that by saying, "If it "easily happens" that a guy often improves in the second year, why isn't everybody a starter after the second year." You used quotation marks, for something I never said. You used quotation marks when you actually completely twist what I said. When you have to pretend someone said something they didn't, man, your inability to make your argument shows like a lighthouse beacon on a starless moonless night. To answer your question, I said "he could easily become a much more frequent target." Your question, "why isn't everybody a starter after the second year?" isn't relevant to what I said. But here's what is relevant, plenty of guys make their biggest improvements between their rookie and second seasons. And as I also said, some don't. But there's certainly a very decent chance he does. It's an extremely poor argument you're making. Maybe they'll work with him more this year on receiving. Maybe they'll call more passes to the RBs than they did last year. Maybe Allen will check down more on plays when it makes sense, the way he should have on that long bomb to Patrick DiMarco when Singletary was literally ten yards open. Or maybe Allen won't, or they won't run more pass plays targeting RBs. We don't know. What we do know, though, is there will be a ton of factors coming into play determining how many passes an RB in this offense catches .... same as there was last year and every year.

Oh, yeah, those half-fumbles and quarter-fumbles will kill you every time. Totally makes sense.

And again ... assuming that because somebody was #45 in receiving as a rookie that he's the 45th best receiver in the league or that 32 teams have a better receiving back is stunningly bad logic. The evidence doesn't even begin to show that. It's like arguing because a guy didn't drink much alcohol this week he's not an alcoholic. A million other factors in play, including time on the field, play calling, how good at and how often the QB checks down and on and on. That simply does not make sense in any way shape or form. Singletary could easily become a much more frequent target next year. Or not. We don't know. It certainly does make sense that they would work on his receiving with him. Guys going into their second year often improve. Not a sure thing he'll improve but it could easily happen. I still remember that play against Houston where Singletary was ten yards open and Allen threw long to the fullback, never looking towards Singletary to see he was wide open for a nice gain that would have put him in the open field.

Not addressing RB in FA could be telling us that they want another young guy. Or it could be telling us that Beane wants the FA contracts to fall a bit more before he scoops one up. Again, he brought in Yeldon 3 or 4 days before the draft last year. He could do the same thing again this year. Keep 'em in the pressure cooker a bit longer 'cause they're not done yet. You noted the possibility but worth pointing out that this is in Beane's history. My guess is they do both, drafting someone in round 3 or after.

Don't know if I'd say he failed in the front office either. Being fired by Cleveland may well mean you know what you're doing. And that's where Lombardi was last fired from. After that he was hired by the Pats and quit after a year or two to switch professions. " 'I’d love to stay at the Patriots, and Bill [Belichick] and I have a great relationship, however I thought it was time for me to go into another career.” "Lombardi's reference to his contract expiring highlights how during his time in New England, he was still getting paid from the contract he signed to become Browns general manager in 2013. He was let go by the Browns after one season. "Lombardi, who has now landed with Fox Sports as a football analyst, said he has been working on a book. “ 'I thought if the clock was going too far along, I wasn’t going to have the time and opportunity to do that,' he said. 'It was my decision. Bill and I worked it out; there were only two people in the room when we decided what we were going to do.' ” "Lombardi noted that he has spent more than 30 years in the NFL, and is the only person to work for Bill Walsh, Belichick and Al Davis, which is something he wants 'to put on paper' in the form of the book. https://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4794850/michael-lombardi-explains-his-parting-of-ways-with-patriots I'm not a huge fan, but he's OK.

You fill needs with FA. The Diggs trade fits that too. With the draft you build the team. The draft is more for the future. If a guy can start right away, great, but that's not what you draft for. You draft to build your talent base. They have gone out of their way to point out that their goal is to be consistent for the long term. You don't do that by changing early draft picks to better fit immediate needs. You're likely to get shocked. Expect BPA

Roberts is really good as a returner. He'd still have the job if we got Shenault, I think. Wouldn't mind Shenault at all, though, if they think he's BPA.

You and I disagree more than we agree, but I'm with you on this. It would also have been a reasonable non-call, but by the rules did he commit the foul? Yup. It could have been maybe legal if he had extended his arms and made it obvious that he was patty-caking him to stop him. Instead he brought his arms in and made it look like he was putting his shoulder and helmet into the guy. It's a shame because it wasn't unsportsmanlike or vicious. But yeah, it broke the rule. We didn't lose that game because of the refs. We lost it because we weren't good enough in the second half. And it's not clear if anyone's still arguing with you here, but you're dead right on the parallel/perpendicular thing. The line a player makes is the way he's facing and moving. If you're moving/facing towards the sideline, if you keep running straight you'll hit the sideline. You don't hit a line if you're moving parallel to it. You hit a line if you're moving perpendicular to it. Ford was moving perpendicular to the sideline and parallel to the goal line. No dispute there.

Last year they added Yeldon just three or four days before the draft. I think it's very possible that they add a guy or two just before or after. If you get guys now, they're feeling the pressure and are likely to be very flexible on price. Yup, that's my guess.

He's an extremely thoughtful and well-connected guy. Puts out videos breaking down individual players virtually daily and all you have to do is watch to know that he knows what he is talking about. He's been a guest on Murph's show a bunch of times. As he says below, he's written for the New York Times, Football Outsiders and he makes his living these days mostly by selling his excellent draft guide the RSP (Rookie Scouting Portfolio). Look at this, and scroll down for a ton of videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxk6t1o84XOM67FL7YoxC1Q If Waldman is right and Taylor is an excellent pure runner but a matador as far as a pass blocker, he does not sound anything like a McDermott/Beane guy.

So, no discussion on Waldman's info, which was fantastic? Jeez. Ok. In any case, no, we don't need a speed back. That's one of several directions we could go, though. Beane indicated that the reason they used Gore more than Yeldon was that he was a pounder, a hammer, in the last interview. Based on that, seems very possible that if they grab someone, there's a good chance it will be a physical smashmouth guy, ala Dillon or Benjamin.

https://rockpilereport.podbean.com/e/rockpile-report-199-2020-draft-series-running-backs-wmatt-waldman-of-the-rsp-filmroom/ It's a long podcast. The RB stuff with Waldman starts at about 1:07:00. It's a two-hour thing, and I wish I had skipped right to there, myself. But Waldman's always a good listen and has a ton of info. On A.J. Dillon, "There are a lot of people I think who are sleeping on A.J. Dillon out of B.C., who I wonder if people think he's an Andre Williams clone. And if there's anyone who he's a clone of it would be Derrick Henry. I mean, I think this is a guy who can be a very good running back. He's nimble for a big man. Got the vision ... And he leaped 41 inches at the combine which is a very explosive mark, so you're talking about a quick-twitch athlete who, from a vision standpoint understands how to set up his blockers, and the thing that I love about him is that he carried the ball 866 times in his career. There are a lot of people that you hear this and they say, "Well, there's not enough tread still on the tire, I'm worried about the odometer breaking down." Man, I discussed this ten years ago with a little-known back by the name of Bobby Raney, who used to play for the Buccaneers and Giants and Ravens because he had a high workload and people were worried about that in a small back. "And I was trying to explain to people that if you look at people, the histories of RBs in the college game? If they have a high workload, there's a high correlation to them being able to deliver with a high workload in the pros, if they have the talent to get on the field. You know, guys like Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, these are all guys who led the NCAA one year in carries. They didn't break down. There's a lot of guys ... as long as they didn't have consistent chronic health issues and there's nothing in their medical report to be concerned about, the only guy I saw on an extensive list that had a chronic health issue, which was a knee, which was Jay Ajayi. And everyone knew that he had a ticking time bomb in the knee. Otherwise, most of these backs that they get into a starting role and they've had that high workload, they generally prove that they can continue to get a high workload and produce for you so A.J. Dillon's the guy that I just don't get why he's not getting more conversation." Waldman's #1 is JK Dobbins, "by a fairly good margin." Asked about Jonathan Taylor he says that as a pure runner, Taylor is probably the best pure runner in the class, but in terms of pass receiving, blocking and ball security, other guys give you more upside. Swift catches the ball well. "But his biggest issue, as good as he is as a runner, it's as bad as he is as a pass protector." He brought up the Seinfeld where Jerry is dating a masseuse who never wants to give him a massage because she's off work. "Jonathan Taylor is like this stud running back but when you ask him to apply his skills at home in the pocket, forget it, he's done for the day. You see that. He's almost an artful dodger when it comes to his effort in pass protection." Waldman still has him at #2, and thinks maybe he could be good if he tried, but you have to project. Doesn't sound like a Beane guy, though. He also said that last year's RB class wasn't as strong as 2016, 2017 or this one coming up. He was asked, "Do you look at [the 2020 RB draft class], do you look at them and think there's more top end talent than what came in last season?" The question specifically mentioned Miles Sanders, who was the 2nd RB picked last year and went at #53. Waldman's reply was this, "This year I think there are a dozen guys that I think, just from the standpoint - obviously potential is always different from the reality of the situation - but there's twelve guys in this class who have what I would call a grade that would put them in a starting role ... they could play in a starting role, maybe in a rotation in a committee, but there are literally eleven guys who are graded higher than where I graded Miles Sanders last year. "Now, Sanders is in a tier ... to me the grade isn't as big a difference as the tier. So, let's look, ummmmmm, there's probably about six guys in the second tier last year, that Miles Sanders was in. And then in this particular class, there are also six guys in here but the class goes deeper, because there's also a bigger first tier. So this is a richer class, there's probably five ... I would say there's four guys who can be immediate starters depending on where they land, and then there's another eight guys I think that half of those eight guys that I'm thinking about in tier two will probably get a significant committee contribution and will look like ... I'll say Devin Singletary was a significant committee contributor, I would say for the offense in terms of production. And then I would say there's another four who probably won't be immediate committee contributors but when they see the field, you'll see the flashes of talent. And then you look at the rest and there's probably another twelve guys in this class who could give you contributions and maybe three to four of them could emerge into lead committee contributors at some point. So this is a rich group that ... we may see some guys out of this class who may give you top twelve, top fifteen production right off of the bat." Around 1:41 ... And for the Bills he likes Cam Akers in the 3rd or 4th, likes him a lot. Likes Eno Benjamin and Antonio Gibson ("around 98 proof of LeSean McCoy") for the Bills also. And just after that ... Interviewer Drew Gier: "There's people who exist out there, probably listening right now yelling at their radios, talking about, "We need the top tier running back." It sounds like there's some depth there to be had that if there's a running back by committee ... that's the way you should probably handle running back in the new NFL now. Is that correct?" Matt Waldman: "I mean, I certainly think there's a reason for that, and I'll just say real quickly that the fan inside of me would love for you guys to take Jonathan Taylor first overall and roll with that, but I think the more mature perspective again is, obviously you're not going to be able to do that. But also there are players that you can get that can work with Devin Singletary in a committee and who would be very effective." Then of Zack Moss, "very close to my first tier," has him #5, and breaks him down. Pointed out that at Utah they left him alone against defensive ends and that is so rugged that he wins. Can grow into a real blocker, screen guy, etc. Mentioned Travis Henry as a guy with some similarities. Interesting stuff, IMO.

It's an interesting question. Core muscle surgery can be fairly minimal, but can occasionally have bad consequences. It would be easy to know what to think for the Bills ordinarily, but with no ability to check him with team doctors it suddenly gets a lot more worrisome. On the other hand, I saw an article saying that it's exactly because he won't miss a lot of the pre-draft process as he would have any other year that he got this done now. Nobody has pro days or interviews or private workouts. It's hard to know if he'll fall or if he does, how much. If he does fall, I'd love to get him. I think he's going to be for real. But I wouldn't be surprised if the injury concern affected the Bills' view of the guy. And if you have a concern, the major bounty of WRs this year should make him a bit fungible, which might indeed lead to a fall. This is a great year for WRs and mid-round RBs.

Nice post. I have a slight quibble, in that I don't think he looked at the Diggs move as a draft move. It was a trade, and trades for players can certainly be about filling a need, as this one was. He did say that he thought the trade could be justified by looking at it as to how equivalent was the value between Diggs and the picks he was trading away. But this wasn't a draft move; he isn't getting a rookie. I wouldn't have made this trade myself, as I love Diggs and his contract but I thought the compensation was too high. But I'm fully aware that Beane is a lot better at this than me. I hope he's right and to me this was a move that improves our short-term chances with what Diggs brings without hurting our long-term chances. This says he wants them competitive with anyone in the league starting this year. Which was thrilling to see. I wouldn't have done it. But Beane is so good at this.

Again, his record doesn't show that he drafts athletic guys against bring it on every play high-effort guys early or anywhere. You keep saying it. But the evidence does not support that. It appears to be you, rather than Beane, who loves this idea. Cody Ford is an example. Ford was a 2nd rounder who they traded up for. Ford is absolutely a smart guy who gives everything he has. He's also big and strong. But to say that he's athletic doesn't particularly make sense. His combine numbers bear that out very clearly. His weaknesses were commonly said to be athleticism and quickness and his performance bore that out last year. Now, can they teach and develop him and maybe get him doing better against quicker and more athletic rushers? Maybe. They seem to think so, and maybe with work on fundamentals and mechanics he can get better. They thinks so and they know him a lot better than any of us here do. But if anything what Ford has is an extremely high floor as a guard. He isn't particularly athletic.

We like that DT was a need. But it is also extremely clear that Ed Oliver was the BPA. He probably had been for a couple of picks. When BPA meets need, that's heaven. And the board isn't a list of team needs. Singletary wasn't a need last year when we still had McCoy and Gore, with Yeldon on top of that. They wanted to make that group younger and add competition, but it wasn't a need. Yeah, they may drop a guy down a little bit if they don't have a need, but it's still a list of their opinion on BPA. Realistically, there are some positions that teams will not draft, especially in the first few rounds. If the BPA when we pick is clearly QB on their board, they shouldn't draft a guy who would be seen as competition for Allen, but at that point, you can trade back a bit to a QB-hungry team and go BPA when your pick comes up again a few spots later. Picking a "developmental" QB, on the other hand, could easily make sense. You're right that no team picks a player that "does not fill a need, as a starter, depth or developmentally." That's because if you throw your net that wide open, every team has a need at every position. If you're throwing in depth or development on top of starters and competition, there are no non-needs. Even if you're thrilled with every single player you have at one position, two or three years down the road you have no idea what will have happened, whether you'll have to let a guy go for contract reasons or injury reasons. You're likely to be thrilled you took a development guy even when you had no need. Every position is a need if you include depth and development wants. That's why BPA matters. It doesn't force you to pick someone you don't want; you can trade to avoid that. But it stops you from reaching for need. And reaching is a very human mistake. That's why they work like dogs bringing in FAs at positions of need to eliminate the hunger for drafting for need.

If you remember that article about Torell Troup's injury, he wasn't a bad draft pick. He's a guy who was showing every sign of being a very good pick until he got injured and was talked into trying to play through it. Far more of a good pick destroyed by an unlucky injury that the team urged him to play through. https://buffalonews.com/2015/11/21/torell-troup-one-pick-ahead-of-gronk/ As for my picks, the usual suspects: Perry Tuttle and at #1 Mike Williams.

No to the first sentence highlighted in red above ... they don't " I see what you mean, and they do fill the gaps in FA, but you say they fill positions they might not be able to address in the draft," as you say. Just the opposite is shown by their tendencies as the article points out. There's a ton of correlation between positions they improved in FA and where they drafted. Beane has said again and again that they fill the holes in FA, so they can avoid reaching during the draft. It's not that if they look at positions in the draft where they want to go and fill the others with FAs. Just the opposite, they fill gaps with FAs going by position so that they won't be forced to look at any position in the draft because they still have major holes. As pointed out in the article, there is a ton of correlation between positions they improved in FA and where they drafted. And no to the second sentence highlighted in red above ... they did indeed trade up significantly (more than the two spots up they traded for Cody Ford, giving up one of their two fifth-rounders) twice in the early rounds, but both of them were in 2018, the year when they had traded away a whole ton of guys to accumulate draft capital to move up to get Josh Allen. They'd agreed to a deal with the Broncos at #5 which would have cost them a lot more of that draft capital till the Broncos backed out. So both of those early tradeups, Allen and Edmunds, came in a year when they'd accumulated a lot of extra picks, including some pretty early ones. This year they've done the opposite, trading away their precious first rounder and leaving themselves only one round They've only made significant early tradeups in a year when they had a ton of trade material. This year they have far fewer high picks than normal, and only one round, the sixth, with more than one pick. And those are the picks they have traded away to move up. If they trade up significantly early, they will be directly breaking their tendencies. And no to the third passage highlighted in red above ... they haven't chosen try hard guys over great athletes as a consistent trend. They've gone both ways. Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson, Wyatt Teller, Cody Ford, Jaquan Johnson, Darryl Johnson and Tommy Sweeney are all not especially athletic, they're guys who produced well are smart and worked hard. That's a lot of our draftees. At the very least it destroys your narrative that we want better athletes rather than try-hard guys. This FO goes both ways on that issue.

Very logical. Interesting look at the parallels between how he drafted and correlating with what he'd already done at that position during the offseason. Thoughtful and would make a ton of sense. Excellent predictions, it would appear.

First, "SB team minus one position"? Oh, please. That is a wild wild exaggeration. That was slightly above average, probably. A good defense helped out by very fine scheming of a rush to compensate for our lack of really good rushers. And second, it wasn't Whaley who built that "SB team minus one position." Go back and take a look at when they were drafted. Most of the players you're referring to are Nix picks. Unless you're talking about the Rexy teams, which were much more Whaley's but also far from being one player away. Nix was the one GM here who was pretty good during that stretch, though he did poorly with coaches (not entirely his fault as he was choosing when Ralph was ill and the team's future was up in the air and nobody wanted that job at that time), never got a decent QB or much at WR (though Woods was an exception) or OL outside of Wood and Glenn.

Three RBs. Jeez. If there's a position you are going to be good at acquiring, you should be hoping it won't be RB. QB, WR, CB, LT and EDGE. Be good at those. And not one of those guys spent even close to half his career here. Gore was terrific, though not last year. And while QB was our #1 problem it was far from the only one. Bad coaching choices, lack of continuity and mediocre drafting also hurt.

This. As they say, DYAR refers to overall value, and Singletary didn't get all that many touches last year, whereas DVOA refers to value per play. Singletary was quite a bit better there, and that was as a rookie. And you simply don't need a great RB to be a terrific team. KC's best RB last year in DYAR was 29th (McCoy) and at DVOA was 28th (again, McCoy). Damien Williams was a couple of spots behind. Last year's champ, NE, had Sony Michel at #26 as their top-ranked guy at DVOA and #24 at DYAR. In 2017, the champion Eagles best was Ajayi at #27 and #28, putting up 408 yards for Philly in eight games, and that was the year he played on two teams. Philly's #2 guy was Blount at #37 and #36. You simply don't need a great RB, or even a very good one. Singletary, Yeldon and either a late FA (remember, Beane brought in Yeldon himself on April 22nd, three days before the draft in 2018) or mid-rounder in a great draft for mid-round RBs.

That's the way I've always leaned too. We've got an evasive guy, now get a hammer as a change-of-pace, someone like A.J. Dillon. I do think that the people who would rather get a speed back to pair with Singletary have a point, but me, I'd rather get someone like Dillon. Now, it seems that Beane thinks that way a bit too, as shown in his pre-draft interview: "It’s also telling that Beane has expressed confidence in T.J. Yeldon. Skeptics will naturally point to his vote of confidence for LeSean McCoy last year before he was cut, but that was a different situation. Yeldon has no illusion of starting over Singletary and he’s on a modest contract. “ 'We’re very confident in T.J.. I can remember scouting him, coming out and watching him in his years in Jacksonville. He’s a three-down player. He’s smart. He fit us well. The great thing about T.J., he wasn’t up last year because of the way we had things with special teams,' Beane said. 'He’s a guy that we feel can play at any point. Very good out of the pass game. Was probably more of a threat than Frank out of the backfield, but we just felt Frank was that heavier downhill presence than Devin’s style, and that’s not T.J.’s biggest strength. Very confident T.J. can come in. Devin is our No. 1 as it stands and if something happened to him, T.J. has carried the load in Jacksonville and has proven it, so we look forward to bringing him back for Year Two.' "So, the Bills appear satisfied with their veteran back, downplaying the need to find another in free agency or early on in the draft. On Day Three of the draft, though, anything goes at running back. By that point, it’s about finding players who can make the team and contribute down the line. If the Bills can find a complementary runner with more of a downhill flair to his game, like Gore, that would be a great addition in the fourth, fifth or sixth round. If he could help on special teams, that would be even better." https://theathletic.com/1720052/2020/04/02/seven-thoughts-on-the-bills-draft-after-brandon-beanes-press-conference/?source=dailyemail They wanted a "heavier downhill presence." That's interesting. Not conclusive, of course, but indicative. My guesses that we are looking hard at Dillon have taken a tick upwards in probability, methinks.