Thurman#1

It doesn't substantiate squat. It's related, but it's not like if you don't draft guys, there's no other way to get players, the draft is the only way. How thrilled the Chiefs must be that they spent 2018 6th on Tremon Smith 2019 2nd on Mecole Hardman 2021 5th on Cornell Power 2022 2nd on Skyy Moore 2023 2nd on Rashee Rice 2024 1st on Xavier Worthy 2025 4th on Jalen Royals Look at the massive results they've reaped off all that WR effort!! Maybe Royals will be sensational. Or not. Same with Worthy. Maybe. When on the field, Rice has looked good. But there's not a lot of production there. Their terrific QB, though, has made things work despite that. Which should sound familiar. That could definitely be the reason. Or not. Maybe it was a good opportunity at the right price and the right time. Point is, though, that Beane DID spend a third on a WR, Amari, and it's not counted in this method of looking at WR draft results. Nor is our using a 1st rounder on Stefon Diggs, again something that we did do despite it not showing up if you use the method for looking at draft results used in this thread.

And the third they spent on Amari?

Probably WR, safety and LB if Milano isn't healthy. None are awful.

I don't believe that for a second. They're a cerebral group. And if you really want someone, you've decided he's your #1, one of the first things you do after that is game out what you do if he's gone. It just doesn't make sense that they haven't done that, well before the draft. They've got a board, they'd just follow it. We heard this about CB a year or two ago, that the reason they picked Elam was that McDuffie was gone and they "panicked." It's ridiculous. I am quite willing to believe that they wanted McDuffie and were deeply disappointed. But that they panicked is ridiculous. They'd put together their board. They grabbed the next guy on it. It was a mistake and he didn't work out, that's clear, but it wasn't panic that caused the problem. Making wrong decisions? Yeah, everybody does, and they certainly have. This could be one, as could any decision. But just not deciding in advance what they'd do if their guy is gone? Nah. Not gonna happen. Enjoy the free time, Gunner. Fabulous stuff.

D.J. Moore? Steve Smith? Beane's Carolina career goes back to 1998. The highest he's ever picked a WR is 24th, with Moore. Not so surprising, then.

Dunno. Probably a few. We'll see.

If that's what he's trying to show, I don't think it shows that. Of course teams run more in January. And of course when opponents are ahead they run more. Generally teams will give up more run yards in a loss , as down the end the other team will be running at a higher percentage if they're ahead. This argument might show slightly less causation. It doesn't show none. Teams that are ahead by seven ... are ahead. Late in the game teams that are ahead are going to run more. Not as much as they'd run if they were ahead by 20. But more than they'd run if they were behind. It's absolutely showing some causation. DaQuan sure did look pretty done last year. I'm hoping there was some reason, but age-related regression seems the most likely cause. Marino thought that bringing in Sanders meant that the Bills are likely to be moving Carter over to more 1-tech this year. That seems possible. And bringing in Deone ought to mellow the "we must have a giant 1-tech or the sky is falling" crowd.

You're likely going to be unhappy for a long long long time, hopefully through several championships.

Greatly doubt it. The tag price even this year would be over $14M. I think if he won't sign they'll let him look for something better and come back if our offer starts to look good to him. That's his standard procedure. We have a ton of weapons outside of Cook. They may not be up to your standard, but we were the #2 scoring offense in football last year, and Kincaid and Coleman were badly held back by injuries. When you've got Josh Allen throwing the ball, everyone scares you. If you've instead got someone like Tua, you'd better bring in some weapons.

Yup. And yeah, this too. A day or two of camp at the most. Wait and see. Holding out after year three is really rare.

So your argument is that things will be different this year, and that all of the differences will obviously be negative and that things therefore will obviously get worse? That's just as lazy. Maybe the differences will be that Coleman and Kincaid, healthy, will take major steps upward, and that Palmer will bring in significantly more yards and scores than Hollins, our most productive non-Coleman, non-Shakir receiver. The offense has been terrific for years now.

Roster malpractice? Puh-leeze! One of the elite offenses last year and they've added to the receiver room with Joshua Palmer strengthening a very young, developing group. Just because you want something doesn't mean it's malpractice for them not to get it. The passing offense was good last year and again, they've added Palmer, and Coleman and Kincaid healthier and savvier, they should be fine. Roster malpractice is a wild exaggeration.

I don't think so. He's been in and out and it does seem to connect with how much he concentrates on it in the offseason. After I believe year 3 he mentioned dropping it into the bucket on the long ball as an offseason goal, and he absolutely did get a lot better. He's been up and down with this and he made some big longer throws last year, not including the giant throws mentioned above. I think it's as simple as the fact that fans are way more focused on this than the Bills are, and that's why the board grouses about needing major speed while Beane and the office don't think it's a major need.

This is ALSO what Landon Jackson going head to head with the #4 overall pick looks like. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_qv3fO-Qzi4 Just sayin'.

Ahhhhh. That makes much more sense.

If there's one thing we do know about this regime, it's when they can't tell the truth, instead they just don't answer the question. They wouldn't lie to a handful of guys. I doubt they lie to anyone about anything this momentous in a kid's life, and if they did, we'd have heard about it before. I don't doubt for a second, though, that people hear things that aren't said sometimes. Could the Bills have said something like, "We're really interested in you and we think you're a first round value. If you're available, we'd think about it awfully hard," and the guy perceives that as a promise? IMO, yeah, that absolutely happens and could have happened here. OTOH maybe they really did say it. Who knows, beyond Beane or whoever Williams was listening to?

I'd never seen that before. Thanks for posting it. Man, that one where the fans are yelling "Sapp, Sapp," and they go TE ... oh, man, the fans knew and the team didn't. If it were any other team it would be painful to watch.

Nope. Wide open. Possible, but plenty of others are also possible.

The years they were healthy those safeties looked damn good at playoff time, damn good. Less so against Mahomes when he was getting four seconds and more to throw, but there really isn't much of a way to handle Mahomes with a ton of time. If we can get a bit of a pass rush, with Bosa and some others, more effective safety play could make a huge difference. Not that I expect a safety in the 2nd, I don't. But yeah, I do think it could help us make a big jump up down the line. DT or DE, please. That'd be my choice. Maybe even both.

Always worth checking in with Astro on this subject. He's on it as usual. Just as a for example, he says they guy they looked a lot at with our third pick, our second 2nd, is Josaiah Stewart. https://buffalofambase.com/2025/03/18/pick-six-for-2025-nfl-draft-march/

Trade up ... if the right guy is there moving towards you and you don't have to give up picks in day one or two. That's day one or two this year and every year going forward. Don't give away high-value picks in future years. Just don't do it unless you are desperate for a franchise QB, and we are very much not. Trade back ... especially if you can pick up the kind of pick you shouldn't trade away, day one or two picks this year or in the future. More picks means more chances to get a terrific bargain. There's a reason this is the standard wisdom. They've done academic studies on this and they all say the same thing, and that is that trading up with big assets lowers your overall chances of success, whereas trading down raises your chances. GMs, and armchair GMs as well, tend to think they know best which guys will turn out best. That's a mistake of perception. We can figure out guys who have higher odds and guys who have lower odds, but there's a reason that about half of all first rounders under-produce according to standards you'd expect from their draft slot. Predicting the draft is just a hell of a lot harder than it appears. That's why more picks is better.

I'm not sure about what a shutdown corner is, really. Does it mean only preventing completions at a high rate? Many INTs? Getting guys to throw elsewhere? Only in man coverage? Low passer ratings when thrown against? I honestly don't know anymore. So I'm not sure if Benford is one, but I think it's not really a hot take to list him as a top five CB these days. Here's one quick bit of support: https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/buffalo-bills-christian-benford-pff-all-pro-team-first-quarter "His early season excellence has been recognized by Pro Football Focus, with the outlet naming him to their first-quarter All-Pro team. 'Benford's 83.0 coverage grade ranks fourth at the position, but he has prevented separation on 75.68% of his opportunities in 2024— the highest rate in the NFL,' PFF writer Gordon McGuinness wrote. Benford has been outstanding this season, allowing a position-best 14.6 passer rating when targeted. His PFF defensive grade of 79.9 and coverage grade rank fourth among corners with a minimum of 100 snaps. He's also ranked No. 1 among all corners with a tackle grade of 85.4. (Interestingly, Elam has the highest overall grade of all corners, but he's only played on 23 snaps)." This came early in the season, but we've seen generally agreement in several places as the season went on. https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2025/03/buffalo-bills-agree-to-four-year-extension-with-top-cornerback-christian-benford.html Apparently he got one first team all-pro vote last year and, "Although Benford lacks gaudy interception stats, he locked down the opposition last season allowing just 0.51 yards per coverage snap allowed. This was good for first among all cornerbacks." But yeah, he appeared to give up his chances of top three recognition -- by the market -- by signing a year early and getting immediate security for himself and his family in exchange. I would value the market's opinion a lot, but it's not the only one I value. Anyway, good talking to you, Shaw. Hope all's well.

Heh heh. Yup. The rule (backed up by research from such as the two seminal articles from Massey and Thaler, Bill Barnwell's here https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40052203/should-teams-trade-nfl-draft-lessons-deals-2024-class-winners-losers, the Harvard Sports Collective and on and on and on, with nobody doing the statistical research disagreeing, is that you massively reduce your chances of draft success if you use big draft capital to make big trade-ups. With the caveat being that great QBs are so important that that's the one exception. Great QBs are available outside the top ten or so. But much much less often, so much so that trading up in an attempt to get a great QB is worth doing. May be a huge miss. Or not. Too early to be sure. DeJean really was pretty good this year. How good would he have been if their D hadn't been so good at rushing the passer? How good will Coleman be when healthy because before the injury the first half or so of the season he was looking pretty damn good for his draft position. Hard to know in both cases.

Sorry, you're right, Doc, I purely mis-stated. Nobody's paying him Barkley money, but I'd guess that if he doesn't sign here someone will pay him what he's asking for. That's what I was (poorly) trying to say. And if I'm right, $15M was the 12th highest APY for FA contracts last year. That could easily make it into the top five percent Davis got $13M and Floyd $10M. Cook may get more than they did. It'll depend on how much he actually gets but IMO a 4th rounder is likely at that level and a 3rd not totally out of the question.

While I agree about the other three, I think Benford is absolutely a star. I mean, not a top three guy yet, but pretty close to it, particularly after only three years. Interesting.