Thurman#1

He is playing sensationally. The question is whether we should keep running him at this pace, and whether his body will hold up under this strain. And whether he can in fact hold up at a pace like this for three or four more years. His brother couldn't, and he is a bigger stronger dude, though with a more bruising style. In any case, the contract they gave James looks like a very good one, even with signing him a year early, which usually implies the team gets a discount. I'm hoping they ease his workload a bit, getting him out of games early whenever possible. Ty Johnson looked pretty good against the Chiefs, maybe if Ray and Ty start to look as solid as they did last year we can do that more. Thurman was an absolute work horse, but he was never really quite as good after those first five years. And Thurman was 15 pounds heavier than James is.

IMO they aren't there yet, except maybe the Chargers. But it's a new group of up and comers, two or three of whom will likely be for real, though not really this year. Except for the Chargers, I think. They can beat anyone on any given day, if they play their best and Herbert is on fire. Yeah, this is a reasonable argument. I don't think the Chiefs lineup is as great anymore as they were the last few years.

Must be hard being so tempted to argue with yourself. Your idea here about trading Oliver, genuinely, it's dead stupid. Clearly you don't get that. But it is.

Van was spectacular, Murph was very good, and Brown is really solid. IMO.

It isn't every year, even though it does seem like it. We've had I believe two years with far below the usual numbers, one or so that was about average, and three of the last five higher than usual. The problem is that these numbers are always wildly variable, even on teams with great training and conditioning staffs. The largest amount of NFL injuries are unpredictable and unavoidable. Again, even teams with great preparation have years when they're over the average and years when they're under and average. It's when things start to be more unvarying that you can see you have a problem. And this staff is very new, so it's hard to know what's up with them yet. Having said that, a bad staff can make a big difference. It isn't clear these guys are bad. If / when it becomes clear, I hope they do something about it immediately. I'm sure they will.

Great idea. Get rid of Ed Oliver, Josh Allen, James Cook and Spencer Brown. That will make us feel that we're all macho and that we're doing something.

The problem isn't never winning a playoff road game. The problem is Kansas City. Let's not kid ourselves. Since they became a good enough team, in 2020 to win playoff games, they've only had three away games, all losses to Kansas City. And the problem wasn't being away. They lost their home playoff game to Kansas City as well. The problem is Kansas City.

Josh's completion percentage is higher than it's been since 2020. And shorter passes will tend to do that.

Palmer and Shakir are separating WRs. Kincaid is a separating TE. And where were all the separating WRs last year when the passing offense looked a lot better than it has the past two or three games? People want to pretend it's really simple. It's not. Even if you watch all-22. There's a lot of things not looking quite as good, including Josh missing throws and not being confident of his footwork. A lot of valuables at play, including game planning, play design, etc. An extra upgrade at WR would help. It would likely not eliminate all the problems. Some, though. But if it's costs a bunch of resources, it would require downgrades elsewhere, now or later, that would cut team performance. This really is a balancing act more than people want to admit. The goal here isn't to have a great WR room. It's to have a great team that performs well together.

Yeah, I still can't figure why Ty Johnson doesn't seem to be quite the same guy this year. I think that explains why we don't seem him as much. The first few games he had chances and wasn't as good. IMO we've got to start throwing more to the TEs and RBs as well. Haven't seen that as much lately.

What does Mahomes have at the WR position that would be considered elite ... also NOTHING!!! Out of the three teams you mentioned with good WRs, two are not very good teams. Spending so many resources on WRs has not helped them get as close as the Bills have on a consistent basis. Philly is a good team, but Smith is not "elite," he just isn't. And it's arguable that the reason they spent so much is because their QB really isn't that good as a passer compared to guys like Mahomes, Burrow and Josh, and needs support in that specific place. And the Chiefs are the best of the bunch on offense, without anyone elite, though they do have two solid guys, one of whom is probably a #1, though not a "true" #1. For several years now, though, they've done well without a #1. Not that I would mind if we could get someone else. But we're not getting guys who keep getting mentioned like Garrett Wilson and Waddle and A.J. Brown. Olave seems unlikely now, but he and Shaheed are likely the high end of the possible. And the tape really does show that Josh has had a relatively bad last two or three games, and that with Palmer, Shakir and Kincaid Josh has weapons in the pass game enough to be successful.

Good breakdowns with a ton of video. Mentioned early are Ogunjobi, Walker, Poyer's calming effect having a positive impact on Cole Bishop, and how the run fits were a lot better.

Interesting. Thanks for posting it. Worth noting that DVOA, which also adjusts for strength of opponent, has the Bills at #9 right now.

I just wish that reporters wouldn't say things like she does in this article like, "Hutchinson’s average annual salary of $45 million makes him the second-highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL, trailing only Green Bay Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons, who earns $46.5 million per year after being traded from the Dallas Cowboys and signing an extension before the season." Neither of them has an average annual salary of $45M or $46.5M. Those are the average of the extension only, NOT of what the team will have to pay if they keep them until the end of the extensions. Hutchinson's extension starts in 2027 and ends after 2030, but he actually got $15M yesterday. From this year through 2030, he'll cost about $210.8M over 6 years, which comes to about $35M per year. Parsons' deal starts next year so the actual figures are closes to the value of the extension, but still quite a bit less over the course of the whole five years, which is the correct way to look at it, unless you are Parsons' agent. Hutchinson's terrific, and it's a good deal for the Lions. Nonsense. You can overpay anyone. It's harder to overpay great ones, but very far from impossible. Just a quick example is that Stefon Diggs was great when we signed his extension. Then stuff happened. Aiyuk was great, till he hasn't been. Quenton Nelson was great, till he hasn't been. Things change, guys get injured, stuff happens. And Beane's been very good and continues to be so. Not perfect, or close, but nobody is.

Nah, we`ve already got a shot this year, a good one. And the question was whether those teams' WRs in total were better or worse, not whether other teams had one guy who was better. None of those teams are obviously better as a group, though for 2 or 3 of them it's an easy argument to make. It's not objective, it's just not. It's subjective, an opinion is what it is. And for the millionth time, the objective in football is not to have the best WR room. It's to have the best team.

30.9% slot snaps last year and 1027 yards. 50% for his career, but the last two years much less and he's still been productive.

Thanks very much for collecting these, Happy Days. Great stuff, very promising.

Overall pessimistic? No, not really. But I wasn't quite as optimistic as many over the first few weeks. I think they've got a very legit shot at it, still. As usual. And that one of these years, we will absolutely get there. Possibly this year. I'm right in the middle. It's really tough, really really tough to win a Super Bowl, especially with Mahomes playing for Reid in your conference. But they have a real chance, I think. I do hate to see New England rising. I hated seeing them hire Vrabel. He knows how to put together a football team.

There were a few people saying these things. A very small few. The things many people were actually saying were these. "Hasn't shown himself to be a pass blocker, a " "Hasn't shown himself to be a top six guy, much less a top two to four guy, which is who you pay $15M a year to." "Hasn't shown himself to be worth $15M a year." "Davis isn't as good. But we might get by with him and another answer or two in 2026 if the alternative is to pay Cook $15M a year without seeing whether he proves he's worth it in 2025." At this point he does look worth the $15M contract he asked for. I thought he was going to play this year without a second contract and try to earn the big numbers, or that if he wanted a contract this year he'd settle for around $10 - $12M. He didn't want to bet on having a great year and on staying healthy, which I totally understand, it would have been a big bet on his health. And based on how he's playing so far this year he might have easily have gotten the $15M if he stays healthy and productive. I didn't think he'd be as good as he's been, I didn't. But I knew it was a possibility, as did most of us, even the ones who thought that paying him $15M based on what he'd shown in his first three years was not a smart idea.

This is a great point. Extra money for the NFL. But a huge and unfair advantage for the #1 seed.

Gabe was a #2. Before the injury, anyway. And no, nobody is thinking he's a WR1. Sigh. Kincaid, Shakir and Josh Palmer say hi. Yeah, we get it, no true #1 WRs there, but those are absolutely three weapons.

We ain't getting guys like Waddle or Wilson, division rival or not. We're not in position to pay what would be necessary, either as trade bait or against the cap. Give up on this idea seriously. Not that it's totally impossible. But it wouldn't make sense. It's what a lot of people want but it just isn't very realistic. Think mid-level guys. And there are plenty of good players available in that areas, guys like Budda Baker or at the high end, Shaheed or Olave. Totally agree with you that he's on the phone sounding guys out even if nothing ends up happening. Dolphins, Jets, Ravens maybe, Browns, Raiders, Saints, Titans, Cardinals are likely sellers, and there is some talent there.

Well, we'll see.

Yeah, there is indeed every chance we get to a Super Bowl. We missed it last year by one mis-aimed Allen pass that was then dropped. Every chance. But no, you're not being generous. Fairly pessimistic would be more realistic. This team has been wildly successful. KC has been better in the playoffs, unfortunately, but this team has been competititve for a title from the third year of the rebuild. Did he make some mistakes on guys, including some you pointed out? Yeah. But the Von Miller contract was risky but smart. If he hadn't gotten injured that team looked like a world champion that year. Certainly he made mistakes. The list of GMs that haven't made mistakes is not a long one. There's no names on that list.

Brown was thrown a lot of longer passes. Guys getting larger percentage of longer passes tend to get pass catching rates that are lower. I'm not arguing how good he was after he left the Bills. I didn't watch. I don't care. The stuff that was "indicative of a guy who could demonstrate success at all routes" is simply that while on the Bills he demonstrated success in a wide variety of routes at all levels. Sanders did indeed put up good numbers. Yeah, he looked good here, and he did leave the league after putting up that good season. Not sure why that is important. The point is that Beane brought him in and he performed well. 46th in yards, in a 14-way tie for 47th place in TDs, 43rd in Y/R. In 14 games. That's absolutely not a #3. Manny Sands was a #2 for us.