Alphadawg7
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Posts posted by Alphadawg7
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Unfortunately, they don't give you credit for "overall points" in the NFL--only overall points per game.
If you fail 50% (or more) of the time at a 2 pointer while your opponent is getting a PAT 95% of the time, you will not win trading touchdowns.
Its math though...if you average 4 TDs a game and average 85% conversion rate (someone said we missed 15% of our XP attempts above, I have no idea if thats accurate or not, but using it since someone said it) then you will average 6.85 points per TD or 27.4 points per 4 TDs.
50% conversion rate on 2 pt conversion means you will average 7 points per TD, or 28 points per those 4 TDs. So mathmatically, you would average more points per game going for 2 assuming you had a less than 100% XP conversion rate and a near, at or above 50% 2pt conversion rate.
In the example I used of 85% xp and 48% 2 pt conversion rates, the math still works in favor of averaging more points per TD and more points per game going for 2. Im only using averages people posted in the thread, so I didnt confirm those are accurate.
And you are mathematically incorrect in your last statement. You said if you fail 50% of the time on a 2 point conversion, which is an average of 7 points per TD in that scenario. Then you said your opponents averages 95% XP accuracy, which equates to an average of 6.95 points per touchdown. So mathematically they can't beat us, not the other way around. Of course not all situations are as black and white as math makes it, but statistical averages indicate going for 2 is better overall in the scenario you said we would not win with.
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I would think so. I'm not sure, but I think the stats also show that running plays are far more successful than passes when going for 2, which should help a team like Buffalo.
Theoretically, if you can average 50% on 2 point conversions then you will score more points overall because you wont likely average 100% on XP with the new XP rules. So, if a team like Buffalo can average 48% or higher after seeing 15% miss on single XP tries, then its a no brainer mathematically. But no brainers never seem to happen in the NFL.
I think it would be wise to always be the aggressor and go for 2 unless there are game on the situations where the 1 point is mandatory and it makes more sense to take the higher probability play in that situation. And like you said, running from the 2 probably is a higher percentage play further helping a team like Buffalo. But again, if it makes sense people in the NFL don't do it.
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No doubt they'll have to be winners or LA fans will find something else to entertain them.
With move to LA #Rams need to make major push to get QB in Draft. The thrill of a new team will wear off fast if they are not a winner
Um, the fact that this is being applied to the LA teams only is ridiculous because most teams have trouble filling stadium when the team isn't good. Winning sells tickets, always has, always will
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I love the Rams coming here and the Raiders not, for the time being. I live just 10 min away from there in a little beach community and will be awesome to be able to just catch an Uber and go to the games...but even better is that I can actually go to the games now since its NOT the Raiders...at least for now as I know there are still possibilities over the next year they can come and bring their a-hole fans. Going to a Raider game sucks...fans are terrible, seen them even attack their own fans for simply not having silver and black on at a game. So glad those idiots are not coming here...and by idiots, I mean Raider fans.
Best part is the Bills play at the Rams this year, meaning game for me in LA to see the Bills next year...so excited about that. Plus, I used to like the Rams as a kid before the Bills, so always liked to see them do well. I look forward to being able to get behind them again as a second team as well...Bills will be my first love always though, I must like the pain lol.
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Lets keep in mind whats really at play here...we are not on a list to be chosen. We are on a PLAN B list, thats it. The only way the list of eligible teams becomes a factor is if no other organizations, including ones who have been on the show before, don't step up and say they are willing to do it. If any of the 32 teams say they will do it, regardless of level of public interest in that team, then they will be the team on Hard Knocks. If multiple teams volunteer, then they will choose between those volunteers.
The Bills are eligible to be forced to do it only if none of the 32 teams agree to be part of the show. The Bills could of course put their name in the hat for consideration by offering to be part of the show as well. In the event no one team has offered to be part of the show, the NFL will choose one based on qualifying criteria. And this year, the Bills are one of the teams that fit the qualifying criteria and would not be able to refuse the show if the NFL tapped the Bills to be team under that scenario.
To date, as far as I know, that rule has never been used, meaning there has never been a season where the team on the show was forced to be on that show via the rule. So before we start penciling the Bills in, keep in mind the odds are some team or teams will be open to being on the show. So unless the Bills openly volunteer to be in consideration for the show, the odds are pretty low the Bills will be on next years Hard Knocks. In the event that the list comes into play, there are still other teams that the league will consider, including some with bigger markets, so we are still not a lock to be chosen.
All that being said, I do think there is a possibility we make ourselves eligible for the selection process though as I would think both Terry and the front office see value in raising our media profile. I think Whaley has been against it in the past if I am not mistaken, but at the end of the day its also a business and it makes good business sense to increase our media exposure. Not to mention, Rex is a players coach and profiling him and his relationship with the players could add some recruitment value in seasons moving forward, especially if we have a strong season next year.
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I just saw a locker clean-out interview with Jerry Hughes. I saw it on Twitter and can't get it right now but it's on bills.com I think and someone will link it I'm sure.
It's possible I'm reading into this but Hughes sounded to me like the players didn't put the work in in training camp to learn the playbook. I don't think he was talking about anyone in particular but just that they should have had the defense down, they had time to get it down, even before the season, and they just didn't get it down. He was a very standup guy about it.
I was watching a Sabres game this year against the Columbus Blue Jackets. They were coming off an season where they ended on a 12-0-1 win streak but didn't make the playoffs. This year everyone everywhere thought they were going to be one of the better teams in the league and they have been terrible. The announcers were interviewing a guy who was there at the beginning of the season and he said it was immediately clear to him that these guys weren't prepared. They came into the season positive they were going to be great but didn't put the work in, didn't work their ass off in training camp, and just assumed they would start winning because of the way they played together at the end of last year.
I think that's very possible what happened to the Bills defense.
They just assumed they would be great because they had been great in 2014 and now had Rex. And they knew they knew how to play defense. But they may not have put the hours and work in to learn the new defense the way they should have.
So maybe it wasn't all Rex's scheme and the blame goes half on the players.
That said, I still think that Rex had an absolutely horrible year with his game plans and strategy and trying to be too cute. So even if it was more the players fault than we thought it wasn't less his fault for not pressuring, pressing, and doing what he does best in 14 of the 16 games.
Mario made recent comments too about better understanding the D or simplifying it. Seems there may be something to it
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I very much think Thurman needs to go. I know Rex is the supposed architect, but Thurman has to take responsibility for a D that great regressed under him as head D coordinator. It may be Rex design, but he's the one thats supposed to implement it. While we did sustain injuries, it doesn't explain the poor use of talent, lack of pressure for guys paid a lot to pressure, etc.
I would very much like to see us jettison him and bring back Pettine for the role or schwartz, although I think Schwartz wont want the job if they even considered him.
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Whaley has done a good job and deserves the extension. Its not Whaleys fault the roster couldn't stay healthy. I don't want to hear about all teams deal with injuries, because thats a fact less response. All teams to deal with injuries, but not all teams injury situations are equal by any means. And teams who deal with the level we had usually don't win many games, yet we still got 8 wins and were in playoff contention late. We lost just about everyone who mattered on offense for multiple games this year, many at the same time, and most played hurt for most of the season. We had big losses on D too, including 2 leaders on our D in KW and AW, and many of our best players have been in and out of the lineup including our top 2 corners.
Our overall talent and depth are better than its been in years, but we not only saw starters go down...many starters...but also, their backups in many cases. You would be hard pressed to find any team that endured the key injuries to its #1 QB, #1 WR, #1 TE, and #1 RB and win many games. And that was just a tiny fraction of the injury situation we dealt with.
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Im praying for the Rams to win it as someone who lives in LA. I liked the Rams as a kid, so I could get behind them as a second team again.
But, my praying is more about begging to not bring the Raiders here. Man I hate Raider fans, I could never get behind them and want to go to the games. I wont even go to a game in Oakland when the Bills are in town, like this upcoming year, because its like entering a prison. Raiders fans are all about the violence and chaos associated with the team mystique, and bringing that back to LA will make going to games a risky and miserable experience. I know Raider fans who have almost been in brawls because they were at games and didn't have Raider gear on. The fans suuuuucccck.
San Diego belongs in SD. They should have a professional sports team, and the Chargers belong there. Be a shame to see them leave.
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Incognito says it is a "big priority" to return to Buffalo. Has played "the best football of my career," put himself in a good position.
I actually think he will be the top 1 or 2 priorities in the FO this year as well. I think its almost a certainty we will retain him since the interest is now clearly mutual.
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Hope we don't lead The League in rushing next year if it means we'll have the second fewest passing attempts like we did this year. Only the Vikes with 28.4 had fewer pass attempts per game than The Bills' 29.1. Roman should try to get 4 - 8 more passing attempts per game. That's about one or two more drives. Having a few less 3-and-Outs will be the key to that.
What people keep greatly failing to realize that our passing game isn't just passing yards, its rushing yards by the QB. Yes, it counts to our rushing statistics, but a lot of those yards are gained on pass plays and are just as effective as making a completion. So while our passing numbers are lower, our overall effectiveness of our passing game was better than that. TT very much has to be accounted for in every drop back and he made a lot of plays with his legs. This is why I thought people were nuts when they kept claiming R. Wilson wasnt elite because his passing numbers weren't high enough (i am sure they are eating their words now as no one is playing as good as him right now, and its without Graham and Lynch).
Lets also not forget that we lost Harvin early who was having a big impact receiving but also opening up the field for the whole offense, Watkins missed games and played hurt for a large chunk of the season, Woods and Hogan apparently played hurt and missed some time too, and Clay missed time and played hurt. Furthermore, McCoy, who is a big weapon in the receiving game also missed a lot of time and played hurt along with Karlos who was also very dangerous recieing weapon this year.
All of that combined with the injuries to the OL, first year starting QB, new offense for whole team to learn, 3 way QB battle in preseason limiting reps for TT, etc and there is a LOT to like about this offense this past year and moving forward. I don't think many teams were hit as bad as we were on offense, if any, and yet we still put a lot of points up and won 8 games. Look at teams like Dallas, SF, Pitt, Balt, Indy, etc that struggled massively this year once they lost less key personnel than we did. Pitt almost missed playoffs because Big Ben missed a few games. Now imagine if Pitt lost all their RBs too, not just the starter, Antonio, Bryant, and Miller at the same time...and the OL. They wouldn't win 8 games, I can promise you that. Roman still found away to keep this offense scoring enough to win games...some we did, some we didn't, that was more on the D than anything else.
Roman did an excellent job overall and there is really a lot to love about this offense moving forward. If we can add a big WR opposite Watkins, this team could be one of the best offenses in the league next year easily assuming we don't lose everyone to injury again.
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Lol, I stated over and over that "deflategate" had nothing to do with their fumble rate. Man was I flamed. I even showed stats that showed players like Welker fumbled more with NE than any other team to show he wasnt benefiting from being in NE. There were stats showing that most good teams have very low fumble rates, not just NE. #Vindicated. Can we now put this deflate gate garbage to rest finally? It had no impact on the game in question, Brady played better in the second half of that game with the LEGAL balls, Brady tore apart the league this year with all legal balls, etc.
Brady is great because the damn guy is the best QB of his generation and maybe ever. Pats are great because BB is one of the greatest coaches ever with one of the greatest QBs ever. Not because of air pressure of some stupid ball that has such a minimal impact on the game that its a freaking joke it was dragged on for so long and blown out of epic proportions. But stating facts about the real facts about the balls or that Brady and BB are all time greats because of their skill someone how morphed into getting labeled a Pats fan and ridiculed. The level of ridiculous conspiracy conclusions people jumped to about the stupid air pressure was beyond crazy.
NE doesn't fumble because they get rid of guys who fumble and the preach like church to protect the ball. And again, if you don't, you job is on the line. In many cases there weren't many second chances either.
Scrubs get cut. Not starters.
Ridley was a starter.
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Lets see, the argument is that its somehow a distraction or we wont do well right? Well not being on the show sure as heck isn't helping either, so whats everyones worry? I mean its pretty ridiculous worry IMO. Texans should in no way have made the playoffs due to all the injuries to their key players. But by all of this boards logic, its impossible for them to make the playoffs because they were on Hard Knocks with all those distractions right? Wrong...playoff game they are playing...they will lose it, but they are IN the playoffs despite over coming the most impossible odds of being on HBO lmao.
Its a great show and I would love to see the Bills on there, get more insight into how players camps are going, see behind the curtain on the thoughts of our staff on players, cuts, etc. This show is not going to hold our team back, that claim is based on mythological worries.
PS: Whether HBO is there or not, there are cameras at practice...having a few extra camera men isn't changing the dynamic of anything. In fact, you can argue its a bigger motivation because players don't want to get cut, make mistakes, etc in front of a bigger viewing audience. Several coaches who have been on the show before (and I believe Rex was one of them if I am not mistaken) have said they felt players had more intensity and focus while on the show for the most part, not distractions.
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Why not would be Pettine probably doesn't want to be a DC
With all the HC vacancies already and the Browns being such a wet mess, he may well be given another chance
If he isn't, if I'm Pettine I want to try for a DC gig under a HC known as an offensive specialist, so anything I can achieve will be credited to me and build my rep for another HC try. If I go back to work for Rex, I'll be seen as his shadow again, not as the real mastermind of the D.
Well considering under Rex the D regressed severely, and under Pettine it excelled in several areas, I don't think that would be true...not to mention we had a good offense this year too, the D was worse than our O. Pettine comes in and turns it around with mostly the same personnel, thats a huge feather in his cap. Several other guys have done this to get back into HC gigs successfully.
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16-37 2 TDs and 3 ints is what you get from Fitz in a must win game vs a secondary playing mostly backups
THIS times a million. I told all my Steeler fan friends that Fitz can't win this game, its not in his arsenal. He's the guy that is good enough to keep you close, good enough to get your hopes up, good enough right up until the end where he can't close and just folds and turns back into Ryan Fitzpick. He is a gun slinger in the mold of Brett Farve without the skill. Brett got away with being a turnover machine because he had so much more talent. Ryan is an over achiever who has peaked...and that peak is still outside the playoff on the back of a 3 INT game where he folded when it mattered most in a must win, and winnable game, against a wounded foe and a depleted secondary.
Hes a great backup, but just not the guy to lead the team to consistency. Everyone made excuses...if he only had an elite WR, if he only had an Elite D, if he only had a better run game behind him...Well he had all that and then some this year, and he still reverted back to the Fitz we all knew...a turnover machine when it counts most.
Well, let's see...9 pages later?
Pretty sure we can close this one with:
3(this time) 4th qtr INTs. Any fan who watches the games knows we've been down this agonizing road with Fitz. Now it's the Jets fans' turn.
Our eyes adored Fitz, though we never liked they way he threw, we all adored him. So close, so close and yet so far.
Uh, we didn't all adore him...I definitely did not adore Ryan FitzPickSix, FitzPick, Fitzsuck, Fitzcraptrick...I had a bunch of names for him and he always lived up to all of them. Was mind boggling the excuses that used to get made for him when he was here. Was one of the worst screen throwers I have ever seen, today was more of that too where he almost threw multiple INTs on screens. He's a great guy, but was not a fan of the Fitz led QB era from a football perspective. I don't know who got more excuses for himself...Ryan or Trent.
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As far as game or plays, i would say the Jax game, but to me the cutting of Fred Jackson was huge. It didn't matter if he has 15 carries for 65 yds all season long, what he brought to the table in his leadership skills alone should have earned him a spot on this roster. There was a huge leadership void in that locker room as noted by Boobie and others this wk.
The continuous parade of injuries, and it isn't close. Once our playmakers started going down on offense, it was a different team. Taylor going down was the biggest turning point as we more than likely win both those games with him.
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I'm not trying to take all responsibility off the players, but the team that the Jets became under Rex is so similar to what we're seeing in the Bills it's scary.
Let's look more closely at Hughes. Remember the fiasco last year when Pepper pulled him from the game for doing something dumb? That's leadership demanding accountability. Of course everyone here was outraged, but hey, that never changes.
Do you think Rex would do something like that like? Hell no! Instead, he fights for players who break their QBs jaw.
I'm sorry, you can't tell me the atmosphere created by leadership in an organization has no consequence to how these players act. That doesn't mean players have no responsibility for themselves, it just means it's really not surprising (especially if you've paid attention to the Rex Ryan Jets) that this team is fighting amongst themselves and not exhibiting self leadership.
Um, Rex took that team and made it good enough to be on the door step of the SB two years in a row. The GM killed that team, not Rex. That was one of the worst stints of any GM I have seen in the league, and to blame Rex for his faults isn't really fair.
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Who Aaron Williams?
Him out of the lineup is the biggest reason the defense went down hill?
The loss of AW was massive, whether you want to acknowledge it or not. Not only did it hurt an already very thin roster at Safety and injury plagued secondary, but he was a big defensive leader on this team and on the field.
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Funny. I read this and think the exact opposite of what you're saying.
Lets look at the facts...
These players have been under achieving for a while. Everyone blames coaches, but at what point do players get held responsible? Coaches are not gods, they can't fix stupid, and players have to execute and buy in. And I see a team full of guys who mentally don't come through, make too many mistakes, don't always seem to bring it.
Hughes is a perfect example...people flip out on Rex when Hughes does something dumb, which is just about every game it would seem. Yet, they fail to realize he's always done these things its just his positives aren't over shadowing his negatives right now. Add in the fact that we have been hit hard by injuries have to dig into our depth, practice squad, and guys on the street to field teams and that just further adds to the equation.
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If we don't fire our DC then I might riot. As I have said before, I feel like a lot has gone wrong this year with injuries and stuff beyond the staffs control. But the D look lost and is DEFINITELY not buying into the system. Yes I know Rex is trying to put his stamp on the D as well, but other DCs have run Rexs system better. With a 5 year deal, Rex most likely is back next year, so bring someone else in to run the scheme better because Thurman makes our D look like there is no talent on it at all.
Fire the ST coach too...have we even had a single game where the ST opened a single hole on any kick return? I mean I am sure its happened, but its so rare that I feel like its never happened.
All I know, is the offense keeps fighting, but the defense looks like it has no fight in it. They simply don't buy in IMO anymore and a change needs to come. Its approaching a point where I am starting to wonder if many of the DL guys have just mailed it in at this point and quit. No push, no penetration, and missing a lot of gaps. We seem to only get penetration when plays drag out or from a DB on the edge. Pathetic for the amount of money we sunk into the DL and at this point I wouldn't be shocked to see us move someone via trade on the DL to get more draft picks and save money to resign Gilmore and probably Taylor soon.
Key areas of needs this offseason: OL help everywhere. Better WR opposite Watkins (Woods is just frustrating IMO and I was high on him). LBs - talk about another disappointing unit. Safeties - no depth, and starters are marginal at best.
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Gee, Lakers AND Warriors....
Lakers always, first and foremost.
I like sacramento Kings and Warriors as a nor cal boy too. Used to have Both Showtime and Run TMC posters on my wall as a kid. So been fun seeing the Warriors do well, but I rock Laker gear only and my dogs name is Kobe lol. I hate Lebron led teams so I loved the championship series last year seeing the Warriors send them home.
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Bills fans only. Have you been to the mountaintop as a fan of another team? Or still waiting?
Lots: Lakers, Warriors, LA Kings
In my younger years and also when I used to like baseball: Atlanta Braves, Oakland A's, Chicago Bears.
Im a Laker fan big time so lots of titles I got to see there, but I grew up in northern Cali and always had a soft spot for the Warriors (going back to Run TMC days) and Sacramento Kings because I used to go to games a lot growing up. But if they played the Lakers, I would cheer for the Lakers...still the same to this day. Although if Warriors and Lakers played right now, I would cheer for the Warriors because I want the Lakers to lose so they can keep their first round pick in next years draft (its only top 3 protected, otherwise it goes to 76ers).
LA Kings - Not a huge hockey follower, but I enjoy going to the games and follow pretty closely once playoffs roll around with my friends around here. So, this one doesn't matter that much to me, but it has been fun rides quite a few times.
Braves and A's. When I was younger, I was an A's fan back in the early McGwire days, Canseco, Dennis, etc. We used to go to the games. But as a kid collecting baseball cards, I also had lots of favorite players like Griffey, Frank Thomas, Maddox etc. Atlanta wound up having several of my favorite players and also some new ones that I became fans of and I wound up being more of a Braves fan as I got a little older as a kid (Justice, Maddox, McGriff, Glavine, Smoltz, etc). So it was painful being a Bills fan and Braves fan at the same time as they were both always the runner up lol, except Atlanta did get one title. But I lost interest in baseball a long time ago with the scandals, long boring seasons, etc. Now, i just enjoy going to games in different stadiums with friends.
Bills/Bears. I was a Bears fan as a little kid as I loved Walter, the fridge, and McMahon. But after he retired (I was like 8) I didn't really care about the Bears and wound up a big Bills fan when I fell in love with the K-Gun offense and such right around the time I started understanding football. So I got a SB win with the Bears when I was a little kid, but other than that, the bulk of my 39 years of life have been very painful in football.
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I agree with you almost 100%.
getting an offseason in , everyone in the building knowing he is the starter should really focus the offense.
He has overcome one heck of a series of challenges and still looks the part,
We have been talking about leaders. I expect him to grow into that role very nicely by the team rolls out next year !
Folks can find faults, but they are all explainable. And i think all can be overcome in time.
I admit, he surprised the hell out of me this year.
Go Bills!
Yeah, he won me over as I really didn't expect him to be a serious contender to win the job, let alone be this effective. And then to do all this while playing through so many challenges as a first year starter, playing through injuries, showing guts and heart on the field...he's really proved to a lot of people wrong, and that includes myself big time.
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so you think he is coming along then?
Yes, I very much think this kid is coming along and has earned the opportunity to continue developing next year. All young QBs have plenty to work on to continue to develop, and he's no exception. But the kid has shown guts, heart, and poise while also putting up some pretty impressive performances. Think about this for a second...if the refs don't blow even one of the TDs they stole from him in the Giants game, or even Hughes doesn't blow that tackle...we win. That alone puts us at 7-6. Now, given EJs struggles and how both his games were winnable, its not unreasonable to think there is a good probability we could have won those 2 games EJ started. That puts us at 9-4. Is anyone questioning this kid as our starter next year had we been 9-4 right now?
And what this kid has done this year has been without consistent weapons due to injury, no time in the preseason to gel with them, playing hurt all year, all his RB's get hurt, a struggling OL with its right side wiped out by injuries...and all the while learning a brand new system that the rest offense is also learning.
I want to see what this kid can do with a full offseason to work on his timing with the core, a year under his belt as a starter and in the offense, and him at full health with all his guys back.
We Need A Real QB
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Wonder when the last time a ProBowl QB was labeled not good enough that was also essentially a rookie, played hurt most that season, lost all his offensive weapons (every single one and many of their backups) for periods of the season, didn't get first team reps on the offseason like an anointed starter would, first year in a new system, first year the whole team was in a new system, lots of OL injuries, and when he did have his weapons, they were often playing hurt and at less than full speed?
Seriously, anyone questioning Taylors potential right now should probably not be allowed to evaluate QBs anymore. And sorry "Dude", but your statistical analysis is a complete joke. We were the top rushing team in the league, we had a young QB, we lost our best receiving weapons frequently, and everyone was learning a new offense...you KNOW this...yet you choose to use Yardage TOTALS to discredit the kid when that has nothing to do with his skill and potential given the offense that was ran and was the offense chosen MONTHS before Tyrod was ever close to being the starter. Not to mention, you carefully ignore his plays with his legs as a QB.
This is just like all the foolish garbage BS people were trying to say about Russell not being Elite...because of his yardage totals in a run heavy offense despite the fact his passing efficiency was outstanding. Im not saying TT is on Russels level yet, but what I am saying is that its absolutely stupid to point to passing yard totals as a barometer on a QBs ability when the QB in question is also a dual threat and not count his rushing yards and also not take into effect the run first offense of a top rushing team in the NFL.