ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 well, by your logic, Tiger Woods' chances of winning another tournament are greatly diminished ... likely close to nil by now, eh? jw Tiger Woods has more skill than his competitors. He also has more dedication and preparation. I doubt he stops winning. A 4th and two situaion is not a competitor. It is a statistical situation. It is math. It may not seem like a coin flip, but over time it becomes one. P.S. By OR i meant Operating Room, not Oregon but I think you knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odon59 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Look, it's ok to be intimidated by advanced concepts like regressing to the mean. It is hard for some people to understand. To sum it up, statistical flukes even out over time. The stoppages the Bills have had are lopsided on a percentage basis. If they are better than the other teams at 4th down then they might beat the norm by a little but not a lot. Right now they are beating it by a lot. Look at it this way, Tiger Woods is the best golfer. He has arguably the biggest current advantage over his competitors in all of sports. Over time this proves out to be true as he wins a lot of tournaments. But he does not exactly get a hole in one on every par 3 he plays. He can't beat the par 3s every time just because he is the best. This might not be the perfect example but I think you get it. Right? I doubt you're calling the Bills defense the Tiger Woods of football so you'd probably agree now that they will start giving up a lot of 4th downs. I understad what regressing to the mean is, buddy. You're still not providing evidence that shows the Bills d will regress to the NFL mean and not some other asymtope point. The NFL has a mean for 4th down stops, but some teams are above and some are below it. We're above it right now and may or may not stay there. But to say there WILL end of at the league mean is just ludicrous. Your logic is wrong, your statistical model is wrong, and your overall demeanor just sucks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delete This Account Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Tiger Woods has more skill than his competitors. He also has more dedication and preparation. I doubt he stops winning. A 4th and two situaion is not a competitor. It is a statistical situation. It is math. It may not seem like a coin flip, but over time it becomes one. P.S. By OR i meant Operating Room, not Oregon but I think you knew that. maybe the bills have more skills than their competitors on fourth-down, thus their success. by your logic, the bills third-down offense is among the worst in the NFL, which means things will soon be looking up, because they're now bound to rise up to the average, right? jw PS: yes, portland's a nice town. i do enjoy the drive along the coast, though. very pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 maybe the bills have more skills than their competitors on fourth-down, thus their success. by your logic, the bills third-down offense is among the worst in the NFL, which means things will soon be looking up, because they're now bound to rise up to the average, right? jw PS: yes, portland's a nice town. i do enjoy the drive along the coast, though. very pretty. You are making my point for me. How do the Bills suddenly get good on 4th down when they sucked on 3rd down? It is the same skill set. That is why the stats will even out. These are just numbers so please do not be offended. I am not trying to have a sucky demeanor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I understad what regressing to the mean is, buddy. You're still not providing evidence that shows the Bills d will regress to the NFL mean and not some other asymtope point. The NFL has a mean for 4th down stops, but some teams are above and some are below it. We're above it right now and may or may not stay there. But to say there WILL end of at the league mean is just ludicrous. Your logic is wrong, your statistical model is wrong, and your overall demeanor just sucks as well. Say the league average on 4th down conversions is 1 in 3, which I believe is close to the actual rate. Let's imagine the Bills, for whatever reason, are much better. Their mean is 1 in 6 let's say for 2009. That's the mean they are going to regress to, not the league average. The league average has nothing to do with individual team cases. Know I'm preaching to the choir here but I can't stand the other guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lothar Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 oh will you people stop jumping into these crayonz threads like he makes sense or something. This is Hogboy's latest, albeit not nearly as interesting, creation. Or at least a Hogboy disciple. Kudos for stringing the bait, you've pulled in some big fish today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delete This Account Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 oh will you people stop jumping into these crayonz threads like he makes sense or something. This is Hogboy's latest, albeit not nearly as interesting, creation. Or at least a Hogboy disciple. Kudos for stringing the bait, you've pulled in some big fish today. including you. i've been joking all along. thus the OR reference. have you, Lothar, been "the OR" as crayonz puts it. wonderful area of the continent. jw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 edit: nevermind. not getting into a statistics argument. not at the bills forum lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeF Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I want to regress toward the mean in playoff appearances please...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
True Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I want to regress toward the mean in playoff appearances please...... JoeF FTW! B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toddgurley Posted October 27, 2009 Share Posted October 27, 2009 The Bills seem to have stopped a ton of 4th and shorts this year. They stopped another one yesterday. It is certainly good and yesterday's was important, but at this point the odds are not in our favor. We are WAY above the norm in stopping these and the law of averages is bound to catch up with us. It seems to me that it is almost impossible mathematically for us to stop another one for the rest of the season. Maybe one but that would be it. if the law of averages worked in football, dont you think we would have made the playoffs by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted October 27, 2009 Share Posted October 27, 2009 this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted October 27, 2009 Share Posted October 27, 2009 if the law of averages worked in football, dont you think we would have made the playoffs by now? Exactly the point......we made the playoffs a bunch of times, years ago and we used them all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 Exactly the point......we made the playoffs a bunch of times, years ago and we used them all up. Holy Crap! You're right. Crayonz, you should turn this theory of yours into a book. You may re-define statistical analysis in sports. (sorry, this thread was too entertaining to let die...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadDad Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 The Bills seem to have stopped a ton of 4th and shorts this year. They stopped another one yesterday. It is certainly good and yesterday's was important, but at this point the odds are not in our favor. We are WAY above the norm in stopping these and the law of averages is bound to catch up with us. It seems to me that it is almost impossible mathematically for us to stop another one for the rest of the season. Maybe one but that would be it. Oink, Oink!!! Another good one I enjoyed the laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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