Mickey Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Using the LA Times interactive map which is based on the latest poll irrespective of sources, if you gave each candidate the states they currently lead in by more than 1%, you are left with ties or virtual ties in NH, Minn., Fla and, of all placed, Arkansas. Kerry would lead 253-238. Kerry takes Pa, NM and Ohio but Bush takes Wisconsin (based on the most recent poll which is a republican sponsored onw but who cares? this is just for fun anyway). Fla. would give Kerry the win but losing it would not be enough for Bush to win. Kerry could still win if he took Ark, Minn and NH. He has been leading in most polls in both Minn and NH but he only recently came from behind to knot things up in Arkansas. The entire election could hinge on Arkansas. There is a scenario that leads to a dead tie, 269-269 in the EC. Kerry takes Arkansas and Minnesota but loses NH and Florida. That would throw the election to the House of Representatives with each state's contingent having one vote. Bush would likely win that as 50 congressman from California could get out voted by 2 from Kansas and Wyoming. However, the VP is then selected by the Senate. There is certainly an outside chance that the Senate could be in the control of the democrats and so it is not impossible for there to be a President Bush and a Vice President Edwards. Complicating matters further, a single "faithless elector" could decide the entire election and from a standpoint of megalomania, I wouldn't be shocked to see one do just that. Who could resist the opportunity for such fame/infamy? In any event, there are certainly some scenarios that are more likely at least than they usually would be that would make this a more painful post election experience than 2000. This election could turn out to be a National Root Canal, sans novocaine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_BiB_ Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 I'd prefer the root canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Boy, and we thought Democrats whined over losing the EC last time! Can you imagine what would happen if Bush was re-elected based on a House vote? I think certain people here might kill themselves. It is fun to speculate though. So what would happen if the Senate ended up 50-50 after the election? Does that mean that DC would get to cast the tie breaking vote for HIMSELF over Edwards? That'd be a hoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Um, I suggest you broaden your horizons a bit: Real Clear Politics.com has bush LEADING by nearly 3% in New Mexico and now leading in HAWAII fo all places. If he takes those two states, as well as Minnesota (which has been trending in Bush's direction for a couple weeks now), he could survive losing Ohio because He'll liekly win Wisconsin and Iowa. All that would remain his victory in Florida to put the nail in Kerry. Use RCP. Love RCP. Live for RCP, because they use AVERAGES of multiple polls in any given state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRC Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Um, I suggest you broaden your horizons a bit: Real Clear Politics.com has bush LEADING by nearly 3% in New Mexico and now leading in HAWAII fo all places. If he takes those two states, as well as Minnesota (which has been trending in Bush's direction for a couple weeks now), he could survive losing Ohio because He'll liekly win Wisconsin and Iowa. All that would remain his victory in Florida to put the nail in Kerry. Use RCP. Love RCP. Live for RCP, because they use AVERAGES of multiple polls in any given state. 84683[/snapback] Well, if we use your site for poll data, Kerry wins PA. I thought that you said that Kerry would lose PA? It seems to contradict your theories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 A WV elector has stated he will vote for ANOTHER GOP for president. That would be interesting if Bush gets 268, Kerry 269 and guliani 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnTheRocks Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Well, if we use your site for poll data, Kerry wins PA. I thought that you said that Kerry would lose PA? It seems to contradict your theories. 84689[/snapback] RETIRED MODERATOR? What kind of benefits did you get?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Well, if we use your site for poll data, Kerry wins PA. I thought that you said that Kerry would lose PA? It seems to contradict your theories. 84689[/snapback] *blushes a bit* I just haven't published my retraction as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRC Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 RETIRED MODERATOR?What kind of benefits did you get?? 84724[/snapback] Remnants of the headaches from my moderating days. That, and an all-expenses paid trip to the Sanitarium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blzrul Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 In 2000 Jesse Ventura stated in an interview that he'd like to see the presidential election come out a tie. In 2004 he's endorsed Kerry. Just a little trivia to start your week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRC Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 *blushes a bit* I just haven't published my retraction as of yet. 84739[/snapback] He must think that he still has some chance, since he will be in Bucks County on Thursday. I have tix to see him that day. What do you think his reaction will be when I ask him: "So, when should my transition team come down and start meeting with your staff?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich in Ohio Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Using the LA Times interactive map which is based on the latest poll irrespective of sources, if you gave each candidate the states they currently lead in by more than 1%, you are left with ties or virtual ties in NH, Minn., Fla and, of all placed, Arkansas. Kerry would lead 253-238. Kerry takes Pa, NM and Ohio but Bush takes Wisconsin (based on the most recent poll which is a republican sponsored onw but who cares? this is just for fun anyway). Fla. would give Kerry the win but losing it would not be enough for Bush to win. Kerry could still win if he took Ark, Minn and NH. He has been leading in most polls in both Minn and NH but he only recently came from behind to knot things up in Arkansas. The entire election could hinge on Arkansas. There is a scenario that leads to a dead tie, 269-269 in the EC. Kerry takes Arkansas and Minnesota but loses NH and Florida. That would throw the election to the House of Representatives with each state's contingent having one vote. Bush would likely win that as 50 congressman from California could get out voted by 2 from Kansas and Wyoming. However, the VP is then selected by the Senate. There is certainly an outside chance that the Senate could be in the control of the democrats and so it is not impossible for there to be a President Bush and a Vice President Edwards. Complicating matters further, a single "faithless elector" could decide the entire election and from a standpoint of megalomania, I wouldn't be shocked to see one do just that. Who could resist the opportunity for such fame/infamy? In any event, there are certainly some scenarios that are more likely at least than they usually would be that would make this a more painful post election experience than 2000. This election could turn out to be a National Root Canal, sans novocaine. 84639[/snapback] Well, useing the LA Times as a reference for anything is an excercise in stupidity. At this point polls mean little, it is all about getting out the vote. hers the way I see it: A) If GWB and friends are succesful getting out the religious vote (which appears to be the case) and they continue to get the base energized then he will be in decent shape. Of course it will help tremendously if the Gov of PA will actually allow the military absentee votes to count. This could be the difference and currently he is continueing his illegal type activities. B) if kerry and the left can get out the college school kids vote (by scaring them), the crack whore/whino vote (if tey have enough crack and wine), and if they can explain the the stupider element of their base just how to get to the polls, then he should do pretty well. The funny thing is, the black vote seems to be rebelling against kerry and the left. Current polling shows GWB getting and estimated 18% of the black vote. This is double what he pulled in the last election. Hmm, I wonder if these are black people who improved their situation oiver the past four years and found that they are not really dependent on the left to sustain their life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wham Rocks Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Don't worry about a tie. Bush has it in the bag by 4% of the popular vote nationwide and he'll nail Florida and Ohio putting him ahead comfortably in the electoral college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Remnants of the headaches from my moderating days. That, and an all-expenses paid trip to the Sanitarium. 84746[/snapback] Oh sure, soak the taxpayers for your free mental health care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted October 25, 2004 Author Share Posted October 25, 2004 Um, I suggest you broaden your horizons a bit: Real Clear Politics.com has bush LEADING by nearly 3% in New Mexico and now leading in HAWAII fo all places. If he takes those two states, as well as Minnesota (which has been trending in Bush's direction for a couple weeks now), he could survive losing Ohio because He'll liekly win Wisconsin and Iowa. All that would remain his victory in Florida to put the nail in Kerry. Use RCP. Love RCP. Live for RCP, because they use AVERAGES of multiple polls in any given state. 84683[/snapback] The LA times uses every poll, even partisan ones with the map reflecting the latest, not necessarily the greatest. Slate has a pretty good analysis of poll data where they look at various aspects of polls identifying arbitrary ones, partisan ones, etc. Certainly there is plenty of subjectivity to go around. I am not using any of this as gospel, just as a tool for discussion. The nice thing about the LA Times is the interactive nature of the map so you can experiment with different outcomes. These numbers change like crazy. There was a Michigan poll that had Bush ahead so the Times gave that state to Bush but it was a blip, all polls since and after go way the other way. If I did this Friday, I would have a different scenario to discuss than today. Ho-ho-ho, just like a yo-yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 A tie might very well be the best outcome for the country. That ensures they'll pass almost no new legislation over the next 4 years. Tough to find a downside in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 It is fun to speculate though. So what would happen if the Senate ended up 50-50 after the election? Does that mean that DC would get to cast the tie breaking vote for HIMSELF over Edwards? That'd be a hoot. 84650[/snapback] i think if it came out a tie, the current senate (which is controlled by republicans) would be the one voting another thing to consider with ties is that oklahoma and maine (i think) split their electoral votes by district. i doubt kerry will win any in oklahoma, but bush may eek out a win in one or two of maine's four Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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