John Adams Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 And there's this mark-to-market issue lurking as well. That has accelerated the plunge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 when I get calls from clients wanting to invest in sectors, that is usually the time to sell out....when clients call to sell out, that is usually the time to buy that sector...never fails So you're a contrarian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taterhill Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 So you're a contrarian? no I know once normal people want to get in on something...it is too late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Yep. Did so a while back. I foresaw this coming. There is alwys a day of reckoning. Blaze your own path... Set your own pace... Don't worry about "getting in." Maybe my funds underachieve... IMO, slow and steady always finishes the race on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 no I know once normal people want to get in on something...it is too late... Which is the definition of a contrarian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Actually, it's JP's fault that the markets are tanking. Would never happen if Edwards was at the Fed. So TRUE! It is all a confidence game anyway... With a name like LOSman, what are people confident about... Now Edwards... That is a strong name! Confidence, man... Confidence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Brady Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Adding fuel to the fire. Panic everyone! But seriously, this looks like its going to be painful. My silver hedge might not have been a bad idea after all. It wasn't. The paper price has drop alot but the physical price is trading much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Brady Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 And there's this mark-to-market issue lurking as well. That has accelerated the plunge. Hedge funds unwinding big time. Check it out. Will last for awhile longer. http://cdn1.libsyn.com/wallstreetexaminer/...e33e50131206ad4 its a pod cast about ten minutes, they know their chit. Craymerica is an idiot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Which is the definition of a contrarian. No, the definition of a contrarian is one who does the opposite of what the market is doing, on the basis that the market is the sum total of a bunch of panicky animals. It is not one who does the opposite of what the market is doing because the public is individually stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 No, the definition of a contrarian is one who does the opposite of what the market is doing, on the basis that the market is the sum total of a bunch of panicky animals. It is not one who does the opposite of what the market is doing because the public is individually stupid. AKA, buy financials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 AKA, buy financials. I prefer "buy airline stocks after 9/11", myself. Doubled my money on that bet. Although right now, if you REALLY wanted to be a contrarian...buy steel. US Steel is down almost 50% in two weeks. Citi, Bank of America, JP Morgan...all are outperforming the steel sector. (The only financials I see that steel is outperforming are ones like Lehman, that no longer exist.) Steel and industry are what's killing the markets right now. Boeing, Alcoa, Du Pont, GE, GM, 3M. Over the past two weeks, financials have barely moved, surprisingly (i.e. if you'd bought and held JP Morgan two weeks ago, you'd actually be up about eight percent as of right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 No, the definition of a contrarian is one who does the opposite of what the market is doing, on the basis that the market is the sum total of a bunch of panicky animals. It is not one who does the opposite of what the market is doing because the public is individually stupid. I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I prefer "buy airline stocks after 9/11", myself. Doubled my money on that bet. Although right now, if you REALLY wanted to be a contrarian...buy steel. US Steel is down almost 50% in two weeks. Citi, Bank of America, JP Morgan...all are outperforming the steel sector. (The only financials I see that steel is outperforming are ones like Lehman, that no longer exist.) Steel and industry are what's killing the markets right now. Boeing, Alcoa, Du Pont, GE, GM, 3M. Over the past two weeks, financials have barely moved, surprisingly (i.e. if you'd bought and held JP Morgan two weeks ago, you'd actually be up about eight percent as of right now). A better example. I wonder what President Obama's anti-free trade policies will do to raw materials and US manufacturing. I'm not sure the answer is simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 To put it in simplest terms, the credit markets are the offensive line, the equity market is the QB. The QB gets all the headlines, but won't do much if the OL is broken. Need to fix the OL first. What??? I don't think we have the cap room for many more $700 billion dollar contracts. Not unless we get Schneider and Jones to buy us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 To put it in simplest terms, the credit markets are the offensive line, the equity market is the QB. The QB gets all the headlines, but won't do much if the OL is broken. Need to fix the OL first. Credit Market = Kris Farris, Bennie Anderson, and Trey Teague Equity Market = RJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erynthered Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 What??? I don't think we have the cap room for many more $700 billion dollar contracts. Not unless we get Schneider and Jones to buy us out. $840 billion. get it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Cramer advises investors to pull out I suggest you wear a condom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Cramer advises investors to pull out I suggest you wear a condom. As an individual... Why would I not stem any bleeding early? My TSP (fed) retirement account has been 100% shifted to Gov't securities that won't lose any money. Sure it is only making about 4%... It sure beats losing. Sure... If I had half a mil in... I would be a little more cavalier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Cramer advises investors to pull out I suggest you wear a condom. Substantial penalty for early withdrawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 As an individual... Why would I not stem any bleeding early? My TSP (fed) retirement account has been 100% shifted to Gov't securities that won't lose any money. Sure it is only making about 4%... It sure beats losing. Sure... If I had half a mil in... I would be a little more cavalier. Because unless you time it right you're typically selling low and buying high. Timing the market is very risky and very hard to do with your own money because of the emotions involved. You got lucky this time but the recovery is usually unexpected and very quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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