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The Risky Obama Strategy


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Does that mean you think american politics are easier to analyse, predict, explain than the french ones? and so that american political "scientists" are more accurate than their french colleagues? ... I really doubt it. Different beasts or not, i don't think one is less complex than the other...

 

In American politics, Party ID is largely the determining factor in individual voting behavior. In addition, because of using a Single Member Simple Plurality setup, only two parties are players. These two facts are the main basis of how you can narrow down large-scale questions to smaller factors: looking at the groups of people and areas that have a tendency to be sporadic, largely because they have a weak or no association with any party, or because they tend to not vote.

 

From what I've read about French politics, the results are heavily mixed on trying to determine what the baseline determinant factor of individual political behavior is. Two studies by Budge, Crewe, and Farlie (1976) and Converse and Price (1986) found that Party Identification works the same way for French voters as it does American. However, studies by Fleury and Lewis-Beck (1993), Percheron (1977), and Inglehart and Klingemann (1976) found that it is Ideological Identification that is the baseline for the French determining votes. Complicating the matters is that the French system isn't a two-party system, so finding out what the Party Identification of the voters are is much more difficult and inexact than in American politics. Converse and Pierce, for example, had 21 different political parties coded in their survey.

 

Since political science has yet to have a decent model of individual French voting behavior, its much harder to narrow down than American politics.

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Finally after about ten years on this forum and hundreds of "surrender" and "coward" french jokes, i see "french" linked with the word "combative"! I did not think i'd see that day ! :lol:

 

"Sarcasm and Disagreement" should be on our Public buildings instead of "Liberté Egalité Fraternité"!!

 

:wallbash: Hey, if we're arrogant and shallow, at least you can admit to being elitist and pretentious.

 

 

I was reading about The Terror and the Vendee this weekend. Frankly...you Frenchmen were a little sick back then. :P

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In American politics, Party ID is largely the determining factor in individual voting behavior. In addition, because of using a Single Member Simple Plurality setup, only two parties are players. These two facts are the main basis of how you can narrow down large-scale questions to smaller factors: looking at the groups of people and areas that have a tendency to be sporadic, largely because they have a weak or no association with any party, or because they tend to not vote.

 

From what I've read about French politics, the results are heavily mixed on trying to determine what the baseline determinant factor of individual political behavior is. Two studies by Budge, Crewe, and Farlie (1976) and Converse and Price (1986) found that Party Identification works the same way for French voters as it does American. However, studies by Fleury and Lewis-Beck (1993), Percheron (1977), and Inglehart and Klingemann (1976) found that it is Ideological Identification that is the baseline for the French determining votes. Complicating the matters is that the French system isn't a two-party system, so finding out what the Party Identification of the voters are is much more difficult and inexact than in American politics. Converse and Pierce, for example, had 21 different political parties coded in their survey.

 

Since political science has yet to have a decent model of individual French voting behavior, its much harder to narrow down than American politics.

 

 

yeah but you underestimate the local, state, racial and community complexity of the US voters compared to the simpler "identity" of the french voter ... The political spectrum is more complex in France that's sure but the nature of the voters is much more complex in the US

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:P Hey, if we're arrogant and shallow, at least you can admit to being elitist and pretentious.

 

 

I was reading about The Terror and the Vendee this weekend. Frankly...you Frenchmen were a little sick back then. :lol:

 

i've never said i was not elitist or pretentious!!

 

and well i'm not sure we're not as sick today...

 

(i'm just back from vacation in Britanny i've learned incredible stuff about the Vendee wars...)

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This is going to be another McGovern. Big Republican win. Obama is the most radical candidate EVER.

 

He already said today that he will basically heal the sick, fix the planet, put everybody to work.

Rev Wright, the wacky priest, Ayers, and his Wife (Whitey speech?), he surrounds himself with kooks.

 

These alone have alienated a lot of people. What other skeletons are in his closet- Resko is coming up.

 

If, god forbid he gets elected, he will make Carter's term look good.

 

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yeah but you underestimate the local, state, racial and community complexity of the US voters compared to the simpler "identity" of the french voter ... The political spectrum is more complex in France that's sure but the nature of the voters is much more complex in the US

 

All of which is trumped by Party ID of someone who identifies with a party (you're looking at roughly a 95% voting rate for people who consider themselves part of one of the parties, and around an 89% voting rate for leaners).

 

This heavily reduces the actual battleground and picture to smaller groups of people. Not that its all that easy to predict how those people will act, but you have a much clearer picture in American politics of what will make the difference.

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Looks like freedom in France is on the way out. Bridgette Bardot got fined about $25K for dissing Muslims. Basically said they are ruining France.

 

 

Brigitte bardot is one of the most stupid people on earth. A PETA loony that think animals are better than men and a racist and fascist ... i'm not gonna be the one defending her right to insult people as it's all she does for about two decades... it's the 5th time she's fined for "incitation to racial hatred" all because the muslims kill sheep for their big holliday (sorry i don't know the correct spelling of that holy muslim feast) and that she finds its cruel for the poor animals... and two weeks ago she was asking for economic sanctions toward Canada because of the seal hunting...

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I agree she is a loonie, but getting fined for expressing a non PC opinion? Is that what we are headed for here if Obama wins?

 

Racist and xenophobic talk is not legal and considered a crime in France for more than 2 decades. You may think it's against freedom of speech but you will not find many frenchmen to agree with you.

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Racist and xenophobic talk is not legal and considered a crime in France for more than 2 decades. You may think it's against freedom of speech but you will not find many frenchmen to agree with you.

 

And the ones that do probably emigrated to another country

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And the ones that do probably emigrated to another country

 

well if you think that not being able to insult publicly people because of their race is a good and enough reason to emigrate to an other country you have some curious values... i could easily find a thousand better reasons to emigrate from here...

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well if you think that not being able to insult publicly people because of their race is a good and enough reason to emigrate to an other country you have some curious values... i could easily find a thousand better reasons to emigrate from here...

 

So could I...like abridging the freedom of speech

 

Just because you don't like what somebody is saying is no reason to prohibit them from saying it

 

A Frenchman named Voltaire once said I may detest what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it

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So could I, like abridging the freedom of speech

 

 

Other than racism i don't know any other limits to freedom of speech in France ... And don't tell me there is no limitation of freedom of speech in the US, for everything that is even softly linked to sex you have the greatest censors of the free World! Each country put its limts where it wants to... 99% of Frenchmen me included will never understand how in the US it's perfectly legal to insult a race on TV and a national scandal to show half a breast...

 

is that post "combative" and "pretentious" enough??!! Because i can do even "frencher"!

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A Frenchman named Voltaire once said I may detest what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it

 

 

In the Voltaire "best of" i prefer this one : "lot of errors are born from the abuse of a truth" and your citation has been abused a lot to cover things i do not find acceptable.

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Other than racism i don't know any other limits to freedom of speech in France ... And don't tell me there is no limitation of freedom of speech in the US, for everything that is even softly linked to sex you have the greatest censors of the free World! Each country put its limts where it wants to... 99% of Frenchmen me included will never understand how in the US it's perfectly legal to insult a race on TV and a national scandal to show half a breast...

 

is that post "combative" and "pretentious" enough??!! Because i can do even "frencher"!

 

Prove it. Compare our censors to the middle east or other such countries.

 

Hell, I'll make it even easier for you, compare our censors to Australia and France.

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Prove it. Compare our censors to the middle east or other such countries.

 

Hell, I'll make it even easier for you, compare our censors to Australia and France.

 

 

did not know the middle east was in the "free world"!

 

well you want to compare? If you want to find american music without "bips" in half the songs i can give you internet adresses of french based sites that will be proud to supply you with uncensored recordings...

 

oh and i got news for you: live shows on French TV are actually shown LIVE not delayed a few seconds to protect sensitive ears with more "bips" like in an other country i know...

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In the Voltaire "best of" i prefer this one : "lot of errors are born from the abuse of a truth" and your citation has been abused a lot to cover things i do not find acceptable.

 

:rolleyes: what "truth" did I abuse with that Voltaire quote

 

btw just because you and i both may find some speech unacceptable is no reason to deny somebody their right to say it. If you don't like what somebody is saying, just don't listen to them

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