Trading Down

[Billsfanfourlife]

As an avid Bills fan I have like thousands of others have scoured the net in search of every mock draft created by pros or one that some kid made during his study hall...nonetheless I have not seen I don't think anyway, one that had the Bills trading down later in the first round? The way I see it if the Bills don't take a WR at the #11 position then one isn't taken until around the 22-27 pick range? So why don't the Bills find a potential suitor that wants to move up and take their first rd pick and possibly their second round pick also? I mean why make the same mistake twice as they did with Donte Whitner? We took him way early than anyone else had him going? We could have traded down and got Whitner later in the round, and to tell me someone wouldn't want to move up to the 8th pick in that draft would be insane. If we're going to take a reach on a Kelly or Thomas and it doesnt pan out again, our friend Mel Kiper and his enormous hair is going to have a field day on us. This is my ideal (kind of realistic) draft situation:

 

At Pick 11 Derrick Harvey if still available.

 

Then trade away a few of our hundred picks we have available and get into the late 1st early second round and take a Limas Sweed, Malcom Kelly, etc... I mean if Malcom Kelly's pro day doesn't pan out for him, he could easily slip to us in the 2nd round also...So you never know. Lets all hope for a successful draft, mirroring the one we had last year (arguably one of the best in NFL)

[RayFinkle]

Your post makes sense, but what is with the " "?

[BuffaloBilliever]

... Donte Whitner was a mistake?

 

Interesting

[Steely Dan]

As an avid Bills fan I have like thousands of others have scoured the net in search of every mock draft created by pros or one that some kid made during his study hall...nonetheless I have not seen I don't think anyway, one that had the Bills trading down later in the first round? The way I see it if the Bills don't take a WR at the #11 position then one isn't taken until around the 22-27 pick range? So why don't the Bills find a potential suitor that wants to move up and take their first rd pick and possibly their second round pick also? I mean why make the same mistake twice as they did with Donte Whitner? We took him way early than anyone else had him going? We could have traded down and got Whitner later in the round, and to tell me someone wouldn't want to move up to the 8th pick in that draft would be insane. If we're going to take a reach on a Kelly or Thomas and it doesnt pan out again, our friend Mel Kiper and his enormous hair is going to have a field day on us. This is my ideal (kind of realistic) draft situation:

 

At Pick 11 Derrick Harvey if still available.

 

Then trade away a few of our hundred picks we have available and get into the late 1st early second round and take a Limas Sweed, Malcom Kelly, etc... I mean if Malcom Kelly's pro day doesn't pan out for him, he could easily slip to us in the 2nd round also...So you never know. Lets all hope for a successful draft, mirroring the one we had last year (arguably one of the best in NFL)

 

How do you know that Donte Whitner would have been sitting there later in the round? Detroit picked right after Buffalo and took a Safety in the second round. I think it's quite possible Detroit would have taken him.

 

Why do I give a crap what Kiper has to say?! Big deal if he goes off on the Bills. BFD. If the Bills draft based upon Kiper's criticism's then they are enormously stupid.

[deep2evans]

Donte Whitner was not a mistake, not even close.

[Dan]

How do you know that Donte Whitner would have been sitting there later in the round? Detroit picked right after Buffalo and took a Safety in the second round. I think it's quite possible Detroit would have taken him.

 

Why do I give a crap what Kiper has to say?! Big deal if he goes off on the Bills. BFD. If the Bills draft based upon Kiper's criticism's then they are enormously stupid.

[apuszczalowski]

Do any mock drafts ever have trade downs?

 

They don't do it usually because they have no idea who is going to trade down and who wants to trade up, or what compensation would be.

 

As for Buffalo, what in their past would ever indicate that they would trade down because they don't want to "reach" for a player? if anything, they are more likely to "reach" because they want to make sure they get the player they want. Unlike all of us here who would be just as happy with one guy or the other, the Bills know what they want and who would fill it best, and have players they covet, and won't take a chance on losing them and be happy going with whomever is next. If anything, they are more likely to give up picks to move up to get someone else, then trade down for someone.

 

They have 10 picks this year, I don't think they are worried about accumulating more at the expense of losing a player they really like, just because the guys on ESPN might criticize and call it a reach

[Billsfanfourlife]

... Donte Whitner was a mistake?

 

Interesting

 

 

I'm not saying that Whitner was a mistake by any means, he's a solid player, but who can honestly say he's done all that we have hoped that he would through 2 seasons??

 

Here's a quick look at 4 SS's that were taken in the 1st two rds of the 2006 draft. (2007 stats, two years in the league)

 

7. Michael Huff (OAK) 89 tckl 0 sck 1 FF 1 INT

8. Donte Whitner 85 tckl 1 sck 1 FF 1 INT

40. Daniel Bullocks (DET) 0 0 0 0

43. Roman Harper (NO) 90 tckl 4 sck 2 FF 3 INT

 

Is it just me or is there one player on this list who has far and away out performed all the others??

 

Yes Detroit might have taken Whitner at 9, but (hindsight is 20/20) a man by the name of Roman Harper would have been available in the 2nd had we not traded that pick away for McCargo.

 

I like Whitner, I do, but the point I'm trying to make is that why reach for a player when realistically there are other, potentially better options out there?

 

Also just a side note, Whitner out of the 3 SS's that played had the least amount of tackles, and when we all know how poor our run defense was and how RB's were getting past our D-line and linebackers one would think he would be leading in at least this category...

 

And as for the smiley, I'm new to this board, and I wanted to put it at the end of my post but for some reason it put it there, lets just say its for the good weather we've been having...idk? lol

[ndirish1978]

I didnt realize Harper had been that productive

[Steely Dan]

Dan, did you have a comment on my post?

 

Do any mock drafts ever have trade downs?

 

They don't do it usually because they have no idea who is going to trade down and who wants to trade up, or what compensation would be.

 

As for Buffalo, what in their past would ever indicate that they would trade down because they don't want to "reach" for a player? if anything, they are more likely to "reach" because they want to make sure they get the player they want. Unlike all of us here who would be just as happy with one guy or the other, the Bills know what they want and who would fill it best, and have players they covet, and won't take a chance on losing them and be happy going with whomever is next. If anything, they are more likely to give up picks to move up to get someone else, then trade down for someone.

 

They have 10 picks this year, I don't think they are worried about accumulating more at the expense of losing a player they really like, just because the guys on ESPN might criticize and call it a reach

 

 

Like I said I hope not. If any of the Bills staff came out and said; "We wanted to take player A but we knew Kiper would be all over us so we took guy B because we knew Kiper would approve." I might have to start looking for another team.

[KRT88]

As an avid Bills fan I have like thousands of others have scoured the net in search of every mock draft created by pros or one that some kid made during his study hall...nonetheless I have not seen I don't think anyway, one that had the Bills trading down later in the first round? The way I see it if the Bills don't take a WR at the #11 position then one isn't taken until around the 22-27 pick range? So why don't the Bills find a potential suitor that wants to move up and take their first rd pick and possibly their second round pick also? I mean why make the same mistake twice as they did with Donte Whitner? We took him way early than anyone else had him going? We could have traded down and got Whitner later in the round, and to tell me someone wouldn't want to move up to the 8th pick in that draft would be insane. If we're going to take a reach on a Kelly or Thomas and it doesnt pan out again, our friend Mel Kiper and his enormous hair is going to have a field day on us. This is my ideal (kind of realistic) draft situation:

 

At Pick 11 Derrick Harvey if still available.

 

Then trade away a few of our hundred picks we have available and get into the late 1st early second round and take a Limas Sweed, Malcom Kelly, etc... I mean if Malcom Kelly's pro day doesn't pan out for him, he could easily slip to us in the 2nd round also...So you never know. Lets all hope for a successful draft, mirroring the one we had last year (arguably one of the best in NFL)

 

I'd love to see Buffalo and Dallas hook up on a trade:

 

Buffalo sends:

1st (11) 1250pts

3rd (72) 230 pts

7th (224) 2 pts

----------------------

1482 pts

 

Dallas sends

1st (22) 780

1st (28) 660

5th (163) 26.2 pts

-----------------------

1466.2 pts

 

Buffalo would still have a strong choice at both CD and WR with this move plus we'd still have 10 overall picks.

 

Not sure if Dallas has anyone targeted at around 11. Certainly they reports say they love McFadden but no way he's around at #11. If so, I'm sure a deal like this would go down.

[BuffaloBilliever]

I'd love to see Buffalo and Dallas hook up on a trade:

 

Buffalo sends:

1st (11) 1250pts

3rd (72) 230 pts

7th (224) 2 pts

----------------------

1482 pts

 

Dallas sends

1st (22) 780

1st (28) 660

5th (163) 26.2 pts

-----------------------

1466.2 pts

 

Buffalo would still have a strong choice at both CD and WR with this move plus we'd still have 10 overall picks.

 

Not sure if Dallas has anyone targeted at around 11. Certainly they reports say they love McFadden but no way he's around at #11. If so, I'm sure a deal like this would go down.

 

If anything, they'll move up to get Felix Jones.

[Steely Dan]

I'd love to see Buffalo and Dallas hook up on a trade:

 

Buffalo sends:

1st (11) 1250pts

3rd (72) 230 pts

7th (224) 2 pts

----------------------

1482 pts

 

Dallas sends

1st (22) 780

1st (28) 660

5th (163) 26.2 pts

-----------------------

1466.2 pts

 

Buffalo would still have a strong choice at both CD and WR with this move plus we'd still have 10 overall picks.

 

Not sure if Dallas has anyone targeted at around 11. Certainly they reports say they love McFadden but no way he's around at #11. If so, I'm sure a deal like this would go down.

 

I'd love that because Buffalo would then get to draft Mr. Irrelevant!

 

 

If anything, they'll move up to get Felix Jones.

 

I think Jones will be the better pro. McFadden, IMO, has bust written all over him.

[KRT88]

I'd love that because Buffalo would then get to draft Mr. Irrelevant!

 

I don't see how. The compensation picks can't be traded and the Bills pick second to last.

 

the last pick is # 252 ST. Louis. Buffalo picks 251.

[apuszczalowski]

I'd love that because Buffalo would then get to draft Mr. Irrelevant!

They already have that, he is suggesting sending it to Dallas

[berndogg]

I'd love to see Buffalo and Dallas hook up on a trade:

 

Buffalo sends:

1st (11) 1250pts

3rd (72) 230 pts

7th (224) 2 pts

----------------------

1482 pts

 

Dallas sends

1st (22) 780

1st (28) 660

5th (163) 26.2 pts

-----------------------

1466.2 pts

 

Buffalo would still have a strong choice at both CD and WR with this move plus we'd still have 10 overall picks.

 

Not sure if Dallas has anyone targeted at around 11. Certainly they reports say they love McFadden but no way he's around at #11. If so, I'm sure a deal like this would go down.

 

It could all be games, as no one wants to show their hand, but Jerry Jones said he has no interest in trading up. He also said that a top 10 pick can "financially cripple a franchise" and unless there's a superstar qb available there's no reason to trade into the top 10 and take that risk. I know we're at 11, but if he really feels this way I don't think he'd want to trade with us.

[Steely Dan]

I don't see how. The compensation picks can't be traded and the Bills pick second to last.

 

Is Dallas' last pick a compensation pick? I didn't know.

[KRT88]

They already have that, he is suggesting sending it to Dallas

 

no they don't!

St. Louis has the last pick in the draft.

[KRT88]

complete draft order:

1st round

1 (1) Miami Dolphins

2 (2) St. Louis Rams

3 (3) Atlanta Falcons

4 (4) Oakland Raiders

5 (5) Kansas City Chiefs

6 (6) New York Jets

7 (7) New England Patriots (From 49ers)

8 (8) Baltimore Ravens

9 (9) Cincinnati Bengals

10 (10) New Orleans Saints

11 (11) Buffalo Bills

12 (12) Denver Broncos

13 (13) Carolina Panthers

14 (14) Chicago Bears

15 (15) Detroit Lions

16 (16) Arizona Cardinals

17 (17) Minnesota Vikings

18 (18) Houston Texans

19 (19) Philadelphia Eagles

20 (20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

21 (21) Washington Redskins

22 (22) Dallas Cowboys (From Browns)

23 (23) Pittsburgh Steelers

24 (24) Tennessee Titans

25 (25) Seattle Seahawks

26 (26) Jacksonville Jaguars

27 (27) San Diego Chargers

28 (28) Dallas Cowboys

29 (29) San Francisco 49ers (From Colts)

30 (30) Green Bay Packers

31 (31) New York Giants

 

2nd round

1 (32) Miami Dolphins

2 (33) St. Louis Rams

3 (34) Atlanta Falcons (From Raiders)

4 (35) Kansas City Chiefs

5 (36) New York Jets

6 (37) Atlanta Falcons

7 (38) Baltimore Ravens

8 (39) San Francisco 49ers

9 (40) New Orleans Saints

10 (41) Buffalo Bills

11 (42) Denver Broncos

12 (43) Carolina Panthers

13 (44) Chicago Bears

14 (45) Detroit Lions

15 (46) Cincinnati Bengals

16 (47) Minnesota Vikings

17 (48) Atlanta Falcons (From Texans)

18 (49) Philadelphia Eagles

19 (50) Arizona Cardinals

20 (51) Washington Redskins

21 (52) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

22 (53) Pittsburgh Steelers

23 (54) Tennessee Titans

24 (55) Seattle Seahawks

25 (56) Green Bay Packers (From Browns)

26 (57) Miami Dolphins (From Chargers)

27 (58) Jacksonville Jaguars

28 (59) Indianapolis Colts

29 (60) Green Bay Packers

30 (61) Dallas Cowboys

31 (62) New England Patriots

32 (63) New York Giants

 

3rd round

1 (64) Miami Dolphins

2 (65) St. Louis Rams

3 (66) Kansas City Chiefs

4 (67) Carolina Panthers (From Jets)

5 (68) Atlanta Falcons

6 (69) New England Patriots (From Raiders)

7 (70) Chicago Bears (From 49ers)

8 (71) Jacksonville Jaguars (From Ravens through Bills)

9 (72) Buffalo Bills

10 (73) Minnesota Vikings (From Broncos)

11 (74) Carolina Panthers

12 (75) San Francisco 49ers (From Bears)

13 (76) Detroit Lions

14 (77) Cincinnati Bengals

15 (78) New Orleans Saints

16 (79) Houston Texans

17 (80) Philadelphia Eagles

18 (81) Arizona Cardinals

19 (82) Minnesota Vikings

20 (83) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

21 (84) Washington Redskins

22 (85) Tennessee Titans

23 (86) Seattle Seahawks

24 (87) Detroit Lions (From Browns)

25 (88) Pittsburgh Steelers

26 (89) Jacksonville Jaguars

27 (90) Chicago Bears (From Chargers)

28 (91) Green Bay Packers

29 (92) Dallas Cowboys

30 (93) Indianapolis Colts

31 (94) New England Patriots

32 (95) New York Giants

33 (96) Washington Redskins (Compensatory selection)

34 (97) Cincinnati Bengals (Compensatory selection)

35 (98) Atlanta Falcons (Compensatory selection)

36 (99) Baltimore Ravens (Compensatory selection)

 

4th round

1 (100) Miami Dolphins

2 (101) St. Louis Rams

3 (102) New York Jets

4 (103) Atlanta Falcons

5 (104) Oakland Raiders

6 (105) Kansas City Chiefs

7 (106) Baltimore Ravens

8 (107) San Francisco 49ers

9 (108) Denver Broncos

10 (109) Carolina Panthers

11 (110) Chicago Bears

12 (111) Detroit Lions

13 (112) Cincinnati Bengals

14 (113) New York Jets (From Saints)

15 (114) Buffalo Bills

16 (115) Philadelphia Eagles

17 (116) Arizona Cardinals

18 (117) Minnesota Vikings

19 (118) Houston Texans

20 (119) Denver Broncos (From Redskins)

21 (120) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

22 (121) Seattle Seahawks

23 (122) Cleveland Browns

24 (123) Pittsburgh Steelers

25 (124) Tennessee Titans

26 (125) Jacksonville Jaguars

27 (126) Dallas Cowboys

28 (127) Indianapolis Colts

29 (128) Green Bay Packers

30 (129) New England Patriots

31 (130) New York Giants

32 (131) Philadelphia Eagles (Compensatory selection)

33 (132) Buffalo Bills (Compensatory selection)

34 (133) Baltimore Ravens (Compensatory selection)

35 (134) Tennessee Titans (Compensatory selection)

36 (135) Green Bay Packers (Compensatory selection)

 

5th round

1 (136) Kansas City Chiefs (From Dolphins)

2 (137) St. Louis Rams

3 (138) Atlanta Falcons

4 (139) Denver Broncos (From Raiders)

5 (140) Kansas City Chiefs

6 (141) Carolina Panthers (From Jets)

7 (142) Chicago Bears (From Panthers)

8 (143) Jacksonville Jaguars (From Bears through Bills)

9 (144) Detroit Lions

10 (145) Cincinnati Bengals

11 (146) New Orleans Saints

12 (147) Buffalo Bills

13 (148) Denver Broncos

14 (149) Arizona Cardinals

15 (150) Minnesota Vikings

16 (151) Houston Texans

17 (152) Philadelphia Eagles

18 (153) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

19 (154) Washington Redskins

20 (155) Cleveland Browns

21 (156) Pittsburgh Steelers

22 (157) Tennessee Titans

23 (158) Jacksonville Jaguars (From Seahawks)

24 (159) Jacksonville Jaguars

25 (160) San Diego Chargers

26 (161) Indianapolis Colts

27 (162) Green Bay Packers

28 (163) Dallas Cowboys

29 (164) New England Patriots

30 (165) New York Giants

31 (166) San Diego Chargers (Compensatory selection)

 

6th round

1 (167) Dallas Cowboys (From Dolphins)

2 (168) St. Louis Rams

3 (169) Oakland Raiders

4 (170) Kansas City Chiefs

5 (171) New York Jets

6 (172) Atlanta Falcons

7 (173) Baltimore Ravens

8 (174) San Francisco 49ers

9 (175) Chicago Bears

10 (176) Detroit Lions

11 (177) Cincinnati Bengals

12 (178) New Orleans Saints

13 (179) Buffalo Bills

14 (180) St. Louis Rams (From Broncos)

15 (181) Carolina Panthers

16 (182) Minnesota Vikings

17 (183) Denver Broncos (From Texans)

18 (184) Philadelphia Eagles

19 (185) Arizona Cardinals

20 (186) Washington Redskins

21 (187) Kansas City Chiefs (From Buccaneers)

22 (188) Pittsburgh Steelers

23 (189) Seattle Seahawks (From Titans)

24 (190) Cleveland Browns (From Seahawks)

25 (191) Philadelphia Eagles (From Browns)

26 (192) San Diego Chargers

27 (193) Minnesota Vikings (From Jaguars)

28 (194) New York Giants (From Packers)

29 (195) Miami Dolphins (From Cowboys)

30 (196) Indianapolis Colts

31 (197) New England Patriots

32 (198) New York Giants

33 (199) New York Giants (Compensatory selection)

34 (200) Philadelphia Eagles (Compensatory selection)

35 (201) Indianapolis Colts (Compensatory selection)

36 (202) Indianapolis Colts (Compensatory selection)

37 (203) Philadelphia Eagles (Compensatory selection)

38 (204) Miami Dolphins (Compensatory selection)

39 (205) Indianapolis Colts (Compensatory selection)

40 (206) Baltimore Ravens (Compensatory selection)

41 (207) Cincinnati Bengals (Compensatory selection)

 

7th round

1 (208) Miami Dolphins

2 (209) Minnesota Vikings (From Rams)

3 (210) Kansas City Chiefs

4 (211) New York Jets

5 (212) Atlanta Falcons

6 (213) Oakland Raiders

7 (214) San Francisco 49ers

8 (215) Baltimore Ravens

9 (216) Detroit Lions

10 (217) St. Louis Rams (From Bengals)

11 (218) New Orleans Saints

12 (219) Buffalo Bills

13 (220) Denver Broncos

14 (221) Carolina Panthers

15 (222) Chicago Bears

16 (223) Houston Texans

17 (224) Buffalo Bills (From Eagles)

18 (225) Arizona Cardinals

19 (226) Oakland Raiders (From Vikings through Jets)

20 (227) Denver Broncos (From Buccaneers)

21 (228) Washington Redskins

22 (229) Tennessee Titans

23 (230) Philadelphia Eagles (From Seahawks)

24 (231) Cleveland Browns

25 (232) Atlanta Falcons (From Steelers)

26 (233) Seattle Seahawks (From Jaguars)

27 (234) San Diego Chargers

28 (235) Dallas Cowboys

29 (236) Indianapolis Colts

30 (237) Green Bay Packers

31 (238) New England Patriots

32 (239) Kansas City Chiefs (From Giants)

33 (240) Baltimore Ravens (Compensatory selection)

34 (241) Carolina Panthers (Compensatory selection)

35 (242) Washington Redskins (Compensatory selection)

36 (243) Chicago Bears (Compensatory selection)

37 (244) Cincinnati Bengals (Compensatory selection)

38 (245) Miami Dolphins (Compensatory selection)

39 (246) Cincinnati Bengals (Compensatory selection)

40 (247) Chicago Bears (Compensatory selection)

41 (248) Chicago Bears (Compensatory selection)

42 (249) Washington Redskins (Compensatory selection)

43 (250) Carolina Panthers (Compensatory selection)

44 (251) Buffalo Bills (Compensatory selection)

45 (252) St. Louis Rams (Compensatory selection)

[Brandon]

Do any mock drafts ever have trade downs?

 

They don't do it usually because they have no idea who is going to trade down and who wants to trade up, or what compensation would be.

 

As for Buffalo, what in their past would ever indicate that they would trade down because they don't want to "reach" for a player? if anything, they are more likely to "reach" because they want to make sure they get the player they want. Unlike all of us here who would be just as happy with one guy or the other, the Bills know what they want and who would fill it best, and have players they covet, and won't take a chance on losing them and be happy going with whomever is next. If anything, they are more likely to give up picks to move up to get someone else, then trade down for someone.

 

They have 10 picks this year, I don't think they are worried about accumulating more at the expense of losing a player they really like, just because the guys on ESPN might criticize and call it a reach

 

I agree with you.

 

The trade down scenario, IMO, is a real risk for the Bills. As I argued last year, when it was Lynch going 'too high', if you like the guy, just take him and be done with it. If you trade down, you're basically telegraphing your pick and giving all of the WR-needy teams still picking after you an incentive to jump ahead of you in the draft order. Just make your pick and be happy that you got the player you wanted. The only time I'd do it is if I had several WRs that graded out equally on my board and brought the same skills to the table. I'm not sure that's the case here.

 

On the other hand, if your plan involves trading down and then fishing through the scraps at WR, then it seems to me that you're not entirely sure what you're looking for. Better bet? Skip the WR altogether in R1 and just draft another position that you're more sure about.