Who thinks drafting a CB in 1st is pass D priority?

[Pyrite Gal]

I do not think so and will say so again since I still see folks insisting on this:

 

1. We run a Cover 2 as our base D (25% of the time by Fewell estimate) and actually similar variations of it (like the Tampa 2 which is not a formal Cover 2 but the CBs play the same role) over half the time. The way we run this D, the CB only has limited pass pro responsibility as he covers the WRs in the short zone and then turns them over to the safeties for deep cover (or the MLB in the deep middle in a Tampa 2).

 

Yes, the CB does have some deep duty on the WRs from time to time when we do standard coverage as a change up. However, when you subtract the just over half the plays where the CB has no pass duty on the WR all over the field, AND also subttract out the plays where the down and distance do not mandate a standard D (such as short yardage when we stack the line or or very long yardage where we run the prevent) and also subtract plays when the opponent in in our redzone and there are no fly patterns, it is relatively unusual for us to use a standard D.

 

Even if we are concerned that the CB will have trouble covering the fly when we run a more standard D we still have the ability to have a safety play centerfield for him and the need to have someone who can cover the WR all over the field is simply not a reason to draft a CB at the cost of getting a more critical player.

 

2. A big problem for our pass protection last year was not simply the CB quality it was the lack of a pass rush. The number of sacks this team produced last year was pitiful with Schobel leading with about 6 and I think no one else even getting more than 3. Again as we saw with the Gints pinning the Pats ear back in the SB by pressuring Brady and putting him on his butt as much as possible, the big reason why NE ripped us a new one in scoring passing TDs last year was not so much poor CB play, it was the lack of a pass rush and pressure. There really is nothing better we can do for our pass pro than make pick-ups like Stroud and if folks really are concerned about pass protection drafting another sackmaster.

 

3. The other big problem for our pass pro last year was that the LB play was poor enough that opponents had run and pass options when they needed a 1st down. The pick-up of Mitchell should help alot since he has shown himself to be a good and active tackler and even better he gets a few key sacks. Pos also gives me some hope as he was diligent about sticking with the team and watching a lot of games from the bench. His tackle numbers were very good last year but folks should not be fooled as he looked like a poor man's London Fletcher out there as he did make tackles but often IMHO initiated hits late as this rookie could easily be fooled into taking a step forward on pass plays or a step back on run plays. I expect he will improve a lot this year even though he did not get PT he saw a bit of NFL offenses and he is a smart player.

 

4. Don't get me wrong, getting better CB play is important to this team as we actually are pretty thin here as both Webster and Thomas are gone (James looks like a nice pick-up but we will see), but the biggest responsibility of the CBs are run support as they have containment on outside rushes and press coverage in the short zone and handfighting on fade routes in the redzone. However, if folks are interested in coverage all over the field and in the mid and deep zones then the pass coverage improvement will come not from the CBs but actually from the safeties who have this duty in the Cover 2 and its variations we use,

 

5. Finally, if one wants to see better productivity by us in defending against giving up passing yardage, before we go out shopping for a CB we actually would make a better investment in getting a TE and a possession WR who will help us move the sticks and avoid three and outs so the opposing offense gets even less of a chance to throw on us.

 

I know some folks are really worried about facing Moss/Welker and other WRs in this pass-happy league. Yet, this is one of the worse rationales for drafting a CB in the first because folks need to stop drinking the Kool-Aid if they really think that almost any rookie is going to put a serious damper on these vets who likely will laugh and clap their hands if they see the Bills take a CB in the first round.

 

Believe me, if correctly you are worried about our pass defense then CB is actually one of the last positions you want to see us invest in in Rd. 1.

[richNjoisy]

I hesitate to respond so briefly after you put so much thought into your post, but it still seems to me this draft comes down to two factors:

 

1.) The Bills biggest need is at WR but no WR is worthy of the #11 pick. Same goes for TE.

2.) If the Bills can find a willing trade partner who wil give value for the 11th pick, the Bills must trade down OR they must draft the best player on the board at that time.

 

If they go for best player available, that will be a a DT, DE, OT or a CB. Right? Most likely an OT or a CB. I can live with more depth at either position.

 

I prefer the trade down which means the Bills can draft WR's and hopefully hit on one who can help us THIS year. Several posters have shown how many flops at the WR position there have been over the years.

 

Overall, I expect this to be a boring draft since you can't be sure if you have a "hit" for quite awhile.

 

-RnJ

[ans4e64]

Don't you give up? I'm so sick of arguing this with you lol.

[Beerball]

I hesitate to respond so briefly after you put so much thought into your post, but it still seems to me this draft comes down to two factors:

 

1.) The Bills biggest need is at WR but no WR is worthy of the #11 pick. Same goes for TE.

2.) If the Bills can find a willing trade partner who wil give value for the 11th pick, the Bills must trade down OR they must draft the best player on the board at that time.

 

If they go for best player available, that will be a a DT, DE, OT or a CB. Right? Most likely an OT or a CB. I can live with more depth at either position.

 

I prefer the trade down which means the Bills can draft WR's and hopefully hit on one who can help us THIS year. Several posters have shown how many flops at the WR position there have been over the years.

 

Overall, I expect this to be a boring draft since you can't be sure if you have a "hit" for quite awhile.

 

-RnJ

Well said. I might throw LB into your best player mix as well. Most likely choice if they stay at 11 is DE or CB.

[richNjoisy]

Well said. I might throw LB into your best player mix as well. Most likely choice if they stay at 11 is DE or CB.

 

 

LB - that is true. I should have included that position. We are talking, here, about one player: Keith Rivers. He is slotted for between 10-15 or so.

At CB - there are McKelvin, Jenkins, Cromartie (who is skyrocketing up team draft boards).

 

The "Longs" (OT and DE) will be gone. As will Dorsey & Ellis (DT's) and Ghoston (DE). Also gone will be QB Ryan and RB McFadden. I EXPECT McKelvin to be gone (Patsies) but they may go with a DT.

If McKelvin is there, the drooling will begin. Good situation to trade down OR pick.

 

-RnJ

[DreamOnDan]

I hesitate to respond so briefly after you put so much thought into your post, but it still seems to me this draft comes down to two factors:

 

1.) The Bills biggest need is at WR but no WR is worthy of the #11 pick. Same goes for TE.

2.) If the Bills can find a willing trade partner who wil give value for the 11th pick, the Bills must trade down OR they must draft the best player on the board at that time.

 

If they go for best player available, that will be a a DT, DE, OT or a CB. Right? Most likely an OT or a CB. I can live with more depth at either position.

 

I prefer the trade down which means the Bills can draft WR's and hopefully hit on one who can help us THIS year. Several posters have shown how many flops at the WR position there have been over the years.

 

Overall, I expect this to be a boring draft since you can't be sure if you have a "hit" for quite awhile.

 

-RnJ

I disagree with some of this. I for one think that the "big" boards that you are looking at are mainly put together by gurus that understand each teams needs. If any one of the top 10 drafting teams needed a WR more than anything else, they would be ranking whoever they thought would be getting drafted there a top 10 talent. Its just the way it goes outside of the top 3-5 players. What you should start to look at is these guys body of work. Answer this: Why don't you think that there is a wr worth the 11th pick? It certainly isn't because there isn't a guy with talent. Limus Sweed and James Hardy each have uber talent. So the answer is most likely because some draft chart has 4 cb ranked ahead of any wr. Mainly because they evaluated what they think the team needs are, and then ranked players based on these opinions. Mainly, what I'm saying is that the Bills board and the "big" board are completely different. Probably not even close.

[BuffaloBilliever]

You pick the best player at the position of your need. That is why you have a high draft pick.

 

What's our biggest need? WR. We will take WR at 11 if we don't trade down. If we trade down? Then... Our first pick will be WR.

[Sisyphean Bills]

LB - that is true. I should have included that position. We are talking, here, about one player: Keith Rivers. He is slotted for between 10-15 or so.

At CB - there are McKelvin, Jenkins, Cromartie (who is skyrocketing up team draft boards).

 

The "Longs" (OT and DE) will be gone. As will Dorsey & Ellis (DT's) and Ghoston (DE). Also gone will be QB Ryan and RB McFadden. I EXPECT McKelvin to be gone (Patsies) but they may go with a DT.

If McKelvin is there, the drooling will begin. Good situation to trade down OR pick.

 

-RnJ

Rivers would be a serious upgrade in the LB corps.

 

And, the original post forgot that to be a playoff team in the NFL requires that a team is more than 1 deep with average CBs. The Bills don't have a nickel CB at this point; I'm not holding my breath that Youboty is going to get his sh-- wired down tight any second now and I'm not excited about seeing Whitner playing slot corner and trotting out converted WRs that can't fill a hole, can't run, and don't know the first thing about pursuit, to fill space in deep zones. (Or perhaps James is the answer. Yep. )

[richNjoisy]

I disagree with some of this. I for one think that the "big" boards that you are looking at are mainly put together by gurus that understand each teams needs. If any one of the top 10 drafting teams needed a WR more than anything else, they would be ranking whoever they thought would be getting drafted there a top 10 talent. Its just the way it goes outside of the top 3-5 players. What you should start to look at is these guys body of work. Answer this: Why don't you think that there is a wr worth the 11th pick? It certainly isn't because there isn't a guy with talent. Limus Sweed and James Hardy each have uber talent. So the answer is most likely because some draft chart has 4 cb ranked ahead of any wr. Mainly because they evaluated what they think the team needs are, and then ranked players based on these opinions. Mainly, what I'm saying is that the Bills board and the "big" board are completely different. Probably not even close.

 

I see what you are saying but are not the other team needs relevant when a team evaluates the "value" of a player? In other words, I am sure you will agree that what a team pays a player is largely based on position and where they are drafted. Thus, a number 11 pick is worth X and the position they play makes their contract worth X + Y. If the Bills value a player higher than other teams but know that other teams do not value that player the same way then they will slide that player down since other team's "value" boards impact where a player will be drafted. There is always opinion, need, and guesswork involved (and hence risk of losing a player to another team) but this does play a part. Now you are saying the Bills may likely rank a WR or two higher than other teams will - not only due to need but based on their own evaluation of a player's talent. I agree this is quite possible. But if they are pretty certain (relatively) that player will be there, say, 10 picks later, due to other teams' needs, then they HAVE to weight that in their decision. Does this mean they might draft a player that they have ranked LOWER in the hopes of trading up later to nab the "higher value" player (on the Bills charts)? Why not?. It is part of the draft process - knowing not only how good each player is but also how other teams value each player.

 

it is funny, but this is how I run my fantasy drafts - knowing not only which players are good but also how other owners value players.

 

-RnJ

[Pete]

You pick the best player at the position of your need. That is why you have a high draft pick.

 

What's our biggest need? WR. We will take WR at 11 if we don't trade down. If we trade down? Then... Our first pick will be WR.

Like drafting Mike Williams over Albert Haysneworth, John Henderson, Roy Williams, and Ed Reed? You always take the best player on the board- unless a need player grades out close

[Sisyphean Bills]

Like drafting Mike Williams over Albert Haysneworth, John Henderson, Roy Williams, and Ed Reed? You always take the best player on the board- unless a need player grades out close

But Mort said it was a good pick! And the Bills really needed a RT who took ballet when he was 8 years old and was coated in baby fat and had bad knees!

[BuffaloBilliever]

Crap. We have two of the highest paid DE's in the league... but we should get that Harvey guy so we can have another!

Hmm... Mendenhall is still on the board, we should pick him up to prevent him slipping...

Langston Walker and Jason Peters? Might want to snag that Jeff Otah character

Donte Whitner... buuuuuuut... since he has value... Kenny Philips.

Kawika Mitchell, Paul Posluszny, Angelo Crowell... Nah. Let's bolster the Special Teams with Keith Rivers.

 

No thanks, I'd rather have a halfway decent offense this year rather than build up an already solid defense that has 1 mediocre need at a rotational corner.

 

What I'M saying is at 11, you're not in the Top Ten (god I sound like John Madden), where top value is IMO verified. Who's to say that a CB isn't a reach at 11 either? I don't think there's such thing as a reach. If you need a WR, and they won't be there in the second where you are, then you get the best you can, and since we already have a solid CB group, there's no need grabbing one in the first round and letting solid #2 recievers fall.

 

I hate arguing this, but there's nothing better to do in the offseason.

[JStranger76]

With the James signing I wouldn't mind putting CB off for a year unless a guy we really like is there in the 3rd. We gotta go for firepower at WR and TE in this draft but also keep our options open for a top pass rusher should Harvey be there at 11.

[ndirish1978]

I hesitate to respond so briefly after you put so much thought into your post, but it still seems to me this draft comes down to two factors:

 

1.) The Bills biggest need is at WR but no WR is worthy of the #11 pick. Same goes for TE.

2.) If the Bills can find a willing trade partner who wil give value for the 11th pick, the Bills must trade down OR they must draft the best player on the board at that time.

 

If they go for best player available, that will be a a DT, DE, OT or a CB. Right? Most likely an OT or a CB. I can live with more depth at either position.

 

I prefer the trade down which means the Bills can draft WR's and hopefully hit on one who can help us THIS year. Several posters have shown how many flops at the WR position there have been over the years.

 

Overall, I expect this to be a boring draft since you can't be sure if you have a "hit" for quite awhile.

 

-RnJ

 

Most likely an OT? Gotta disagree with you there. We take any linemen in the 1st it will be on D

[LynchMob23]

I think that a corner that is like Reggie Smith out of Oklahoma that is GOOD at playing Safety or Corner and not just a corner that might play safety or vice versa, then we pick one up - but round two would be my target. I think if you get a guy like that you open your Defense (Cover 2, Tampa 2 or whatever you want to run) to as many packages as the offense will throw out at you, without sacrificing a linebacker or being fundamentally sound.

[richNjoisy]

Most likely an OT? Gotta disagree with you there. We take any linemen in the 1st it will be on D

 

Ryan Clady

OT | (6'6", 317, 5.15) | BOISE STATE

 

could be sitting there at pick 11. don't pop a gasket if the Bills pick him. I won't. IMO, you can never have too many big bodies on EITHER side of the ball.

[BuffaloBilliever]

:blink:

 

Why isn't the freaking draft tomorrow... why!?

[JStranger76]

I know you are probably just as anxious as I am BuffaloBilliever but it is a good question. Why is the draft so far away? Once pro days are over you would figure teams would want their draft picks participating in their offseason training programs ASAP once they sign their contract of course. If that isn't a good enough reason to move the draft up than how about because I WANT IT MOVED UP DAMNIT!!!

[LevysEraII]

Cromartie is my choice.

[Pyrite Gal]

Rivers would be a serious upgrade in the LB corps.

 

And, the original post forgot that to be a playoff team in the NFL requires that a team is more than 1 deep with average CBs. The Bills don't have a nickel CB at this point; I'm not holding my breath that Youboty is going to get his sh-- wired down tight any second now and I'm not excited about seeing Whitner playing slot corner and trotting out converted WRs that can't fill a hole, can't run, and don't know the first thing about pursuit, to fill space in deep zones. (Or perhaps James is the answer. Yep. )

The original post did not claim that the Bills did not need CB depth (in fact it specifically says we need more depth at CB). The original post merely made the point that we should spend our first rounder at a position other than using it to get a depth player at CB. It makes the point in torturous detail (again since I still see posts and hear pundits that just do not seem to get it and claim that CB is a first round need for us) that the main reasons folks offer up for the need for a CB is to improve our lousy pass D stats when actually DL, LB, S and even O improvements do more for the pass D than picking a CB early.

 

In fact the only thing sillier than the notion that better CB play is the key to us doing better against the pass is the notion that somehow or other a rookie CB is going to be the key to us stopping vets like Moss and Welker. It simply does not work that way in the game of football the way we play it.