Teams drafting top 15 WRs or CBs since 2000

[boomerjamhead]

Let's hope our front office is able to recognize the trend here. Impact in premium picks comes far more frequently from quality Defensive players versus the other side of the ball. We have an opportunity in this draft to adopt the model the winners use- or we can follow the Lion's management playbook and end up acting excited whenever we get to .500 during the season.

 

This is exactly why I think Rivers is the pick. What scares me though is that I think we have to get in front of New Orleans to get him. I like the top-15 cutoff that you are using here because it seems that of the posts I've read, the consensus of posters wants the Bill's Brass to trade down... just not too far down so we can still grab the consensus WR of our choosing. Yeah... OK, take another toke...

 

The way I see it going down is that they draft defense in the first round, trade up in the second (swap seconds and throw in the fifth or something) and grab the highest rated WR they have on their board.

[AKC]

One of your points was relating to money, and thats all I was commenting on.

 

Just looking at the money side, there is a major difference between a FA and a top 15 draft pick. That top 15 pick will tie up a good chuck of money against the cap for the next 5 seasons, whereas the FA contract on average will impact the cap for a lesser time period. There's a natural tendency for fans to look at the game from the player side- like "we need a running back"- without considering how the better teams look to bracket a running back for the money required.

[Chilly]

Just looking at the money side, there is a major difference between a FA and a top 15 draft pick. That top 15 pick will tie up a good chuck of money against the cap for the next 5 seasons, whereas the FA contract on average will impact the cap for a lesser time period. There's a natural tendency for fans to look at the game from the player side- like "we need a running back"- without considering how the better teams look to bracket a running back for the money required.

 

Right, but my point was that there are several successful teams who have that kind of cash tied up in two WRs.

[Coach Tuesday]

If Ryan Clady falls to 11, they'll have a serious decision to make. If not, and if Ellis and Dorsey are also gone (virtual certainties), even though I agree with your premise I'm not sure what the Bills are supposed to do. Drafting Balmer at 11 to prove a point would be foolish if they have Devin Thomas much higher on their Board. And trading down is easier said than done. Just saying - I agree with you in principle, but their hands may be tied.

[AKC]

If Ryan Clady falls to 11, they'll have a serious decision to make. If not, and if Ellis and Dorsey are also gone (virtual certainties), even though I agree with your premise I'm not sure what the Bills are supposed to do. Drafting Balmer at 11 to prove a point would be foolish if they have Devin Thomas much higher on their Board. And trading down is easier said than done. Just saying - I agree with you in principle, but their hands may be tied.

 

Following the current draft predictions, that's how it will play out. The wild card will be someone moving up for another position and kicking the Chiefs or Bengals behind us. Considering the Chiefs OL needs, this might not be out of the question. With our offseason moves, teams with bad front offices won't see us as much threat to go DT at 11. Our best scenario may just include another team's error on letting someone with a different need move up.

[obie_wan]

If Ryan Clady falls to 11, they'll have a serious decision to make. If not, and if Ellis and Dorsey are also gone (virtual certainties), even though I agree with your premise I'm not sure what the Bills are supposed to do. Drafting Balmer at 11 to prove a point would be foolish if they have Devin Thomas much higher on their Board. And trading down is easier said than done. Just saying - I agree with you in principle, but their hands may be tied.

 

Dorsey may drop to the Bills now that he is rumored to have had secret off season surgery on his leg

[Dibs]

Here's the list of NFL teams who used a top 15 pick on a WR or CB since the 2001 draft........

Though I generally don't disagree with the importance of DTs(DL) I don't think one can make a reasonable assessment of importance based upon the data you have chosen.

 

The basis of what you want your analysis to say is......"Successful teams often spend their major draft resources on DL." Though this may well be true, there are a lot of factors which need to be considered when determining this concept. What is the reasoning of limiting things to the top 15? Surely a good team in need of position upgrade would not say....."Hmmmm, lets wait until we have a top 15 pick to get the needed position and select something different this year."

 

Though I believe that Philly generally follows the DL/OL model.....most teams seem to be far more flexible.....or even draft against the theory.

Over the last 10 years.....selected in 1st round

Ravens

DL 1

OL 1

WR/DB/TE 6

other D 1

other O 1

 

Philly

DL 4

OL 2

WR/DB/TE 2

other D 0

other O 1

 

Pats

DL 3

OL 2

WR/DB/TE 4

other D 1

other O 2

 

Colts

DL 1

OL 0

WR/DB/TE 4

other D 1

other O 3

 

Green Bay

DL 3

OL 0

WR/DB/TE 4

other D 2

other O 1

 

It is clear to me that teams select mainly for areas of need.....or perceived future need. If they have a good QB they will not spend 1st round draft picks on the position for many, many years......similar goes for most areas on a team. WR/DB/TE selections in the 1st round seems to be higher amongst the successful teams over the lesser teams. Is this due to their importance? I tend to think not.......perhaps it's an indication that the successful teams have had success in selecting good QBs, Linemen & coaches therefore enabling them the luxury of drafting WR/DB/TE more often.

[Fingon]

What a load of garbage. If the WR has talent, is likely to go around that spot, and your team needs a WR like there is no tomorrow; why not take one? The same logic was applied last year with RBs, that they would be around in later rounds; how did that end up?

[AKC]

What is the reasoning of limiting things to the top 15?

We'll be selecting in the top 15 this year.

 

perhaps it's an indication that the successful teams have had success in selecting good QBs, Linemen & coaches therefore enabling them the luxury of drafting WR/DB/TE more often.

You will want to go back and check where these QB's you are calling "great" were actually drafted- guys you've identified like Brady or Favre. I can't see how your premise is supported when you factor that reality into it.

 

What a load of garbage. If the WR has talent, is likely to go around that spot, and your team needs a WR like there is no tomorrow; why not take one? The same logic was applied last year with RBs, that they would be around in later rounds; how did that end up?

Garbage is the inability to recognize that the best teams in football have some positions thay are far less likely to draft with a pick carrying the financial ramifications of a top 15 selection. Garbage is what Detroit, Arizona and unfortunately our Bills have become on draft day, approaching it all like a Fantasy Football draft and leaving the better teams to vie over the best DLinemen without the bad teams messing up their party.

[Steely Dan]

I don't think this argument advocates for taking a DT with #11 regardless of the situation. I think the point is that teams that prioritize defensive playmakers over WRs in the first round tend to be more consistent over the long haul... and I think AKC is absolutely correct in that assertion.

 

As I pointed out in previous posts, we had Wilfork and Tommie Harris staring at us in the face and we took Lee Evans -- a good player in his own right -- but let's not kid ourselves... that was a mistake. Let's not repeat it

 

Evans was a mistake?! Wilfork doesn't have the character Buffalo wants in a player.

 

You can't look at past drafts and draw too many conclusions from them. Players vary from year to year. If Limas Sweed is available I think he will help the Bills more than any DT that will probably be left on the board at that time. As far as CB's go the same applies. Donte Whitner was taken early and is working out pretty well for Buffalo.

[ax4782]

I think it is very easy to point to teams that have had a lot of success and say here's what they did, this is what we should do. Maybe that's true, but they also don't have as many needs. The Patriots have had ten or more draft picks every year for the last six years. They build depth through the draft and have gotten their top offensive players, sans Tom Brady, mostly through free agency. The same goes for the Ravens.

 

Looking historically, the last few years have not produced many top receivers who have done well statistically and it's easy to point to Detroit. However, I live in Detroit, and read the papers every day. The problem with Charles Roger and Mike Williams, wasn't that they didn't pan out. It had more to do with the fact that they weren't nearly as good as people thought they were. Mike Williams left college too early, had a year off and wasn't in shape. Rogers had no work ethic and once he had his big contract with its incentives he quit. Not to mention, there was no other players on that team who could do anything. Harrington was absolutely terrible and Kevin Jones was just cut because he wasn't really a number one back in the NFL. The Lions are not the best example to look to when evaluating whether or not receivers picked in the top-10 are actually going to pan out. That being said, Charles Johnson has the makings of a super star.

 

Since we're looking at history, however, I think looking at the history of the Bills in picking first round receiver talent is perhaps the best indicator of how a receiver drafted by the Bills in the first round might pan out. Buffalo has drafted a number of receivers in the first round of the NFL draft. Jerry Butler was, I believe a first round pick and he played very well for the Bills during the Ferguson years. Buffalo also drafted Eric Moulds in the first round. He turned out to be pretty darn good. Peerless Price was also a first round selection. He had shown signs of being exceptional, but then fizzled. Not such a stellar pick. Technically, Roscoe Parrish was our "first" selection a few years ago, when we took him in the second round. He hasn't really played enough to judge whether he will be good or not, though he did start to show some flashes last year. I think the jury is still out on Parrish. We also drafted Andre Reed, though I don't believe he was our first round pick. I believe he was taken in the second round of the 86 draft after Buffalo had taken Bruce Smith. That choice turned out rather well I think.

 

Overall, Buffalo has had a mixed result with first round receivers. I think this year's crop is a bit overrated in a number of ways talent wise, but there are a few steals. I believe James Hardy or Devin Thomas, or both, are a bit underrated and are perhaps the best receivers in the draft. Manningham is also very good, though I don't think the Bills will take him due to the fact that he is basically a Lee Evans clone and is under 6 feet tall. Buffalo NEEDS another wide receiver. We would like to have more depth and talent at a number of position, but there are now two desperate positions of need. WR and TE. One might also include C in that classification of need. As a result, I believe the Bills will draft as follows.

 

Trade Down with Dallas who will desperately want Mendenhall at number 11 for their two first rounders at 22 and 28.

 

1a. Devin Thomas WR

1b. Fred Davis TE

2. James Hardy WR

3. Mike Pollack C

4. Owen Schmidt FB

5. D-Line

6. CB

7a. Matt Spanos C

7b. O-Line

 

It is possible that Buffalo could take another CB in round 2 and draft Jordy Nelson WR from KSU in the fifth round. I wouldn't be shocked, but Buffalo IS going to draft two WRs during the draft. If they take Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly in the first round, the offense will become instantly better. Evans will have pressure taken off of him by mid-season when the new rookie is making an impact on offense and helping us move the chains. It also allows Reed to play his natural and best position in the slot and gives us a strong fourth option in Parrish who could become Buffalo's Wes Welker. This just makes sense. Adding a TE will only make the O that much better with a fifth passing threat who can open the middle and draw safties out of double coverage on Evans. Taking D-Line, doesn't provide us with nearly the benefit of a WR or a TE. Sorry, but I think you're just wrong on this one.

[Huuuge Bills]

So let me get this straight, teams that pick early in the draft suck. ALERT THE PRESSES!!!!!

[Dibs]

We'll be selecting in the top 15 this year.

Your point therefore seems to be......We have a top 15 pick, what do good teams do when they have a top 15 pick?

Unless you are saying that good teams alter their draft strategy when they have a top 15 pick to when they don't and say....."Hmmmm, lets wait until we have a top 15 pick to get the needed position and select something different this year." I cannot see any relevance to having a top 15 cutoff point. When any team has a position of need they will either try and fill that with their highest draft pick or via FA.......they won't delay the situation because their pick isn't high enough.....nor will they overpay for the position in a weak FA year(at that position).

[Dibs]

You will want to go back and check where these QB's you are calling "great" were actually drafted- guys you've identified like Brady or Favre. I can't see how your premise is supported when you factor that reality into it.

This has nothing to do with drafting them......I never said anything about spending 1st round picks on QBs.

I pointed out that when a team ends up with a top QB they have the luxury of not having to continually spend resources on trying to obtain a top QB......those resources can then be spent on other areas.

If you read the last paragraph of my post(#27) you will see that I actually back your premise......I just don't think that the method you have used(basically looking at top 15 selections) holds much weight.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Just looking at the money side, there is a major difference between a FA and a top 15 draft pick. That top 15 pick will tie up a good chuck of money against the cap for the next 5 seasons, whereas the FA contract on average will impact the cap for a lesser time period. There's a natural tendency for fans to look at the game from the player side- like "we need a running back"- without considering how the better teams look to bracket a running back for the money required.

Some of the biggest problems with these threads have nothing to do with your arguments.

 

 

You tried to make a point that good teams don't tie up big money on WRs. Yes, the original premise of the thread was not using high draft picks on WRs...but then you said this:

 

We already have a top WR making first round money- adding a second WR getting the money the 11 spot will require just looks to me to be the kind of thing that the better managed teams don't do.

 

At this point, you went beyond the thread's original intention...this sentence is purely about the money tied up in the WR position.

 

Even if we do draft a WR at #11, you can't make the claim we'd be paying our WRs as a group significantly more than last year's Pats* with Moss/Stallworth/Welker, or the Colts with Harrison/Wayne/Gonzales. BlueFire pointed this out, and you chose to go back and claim that sentence was about not wasting high picks on recieivers, when it was actually about not wasting big money on recievers.

 

You would have been better served simply admitting you took the concept too far, and that the statement was wrong.

 

The arrogant tone you take turns people off to your theories as much as, and maybe more than, your arguments do. Its okay to admit you're not infallible. None of us are.

[Bill from NYC]

Since we're looking at history, however, I think looking at the history of the Bills in picking first round receiver talent is perhaps the best indicator of how a receiver drafted by the Bills in the first round might pan out. Buffalo has drafted a number of receivers in the first round of the NFL draft. Jerry Butler was, I believe a first round pick and he played very well for the Bills during the Ferguson years. Buffalo also drafted Eric Moulds in the first round. He turned out to be pretty darn good. Peerless Price was also a first round selection. He had shown signs of being exceptional, but then fizzled. Not such a stellar pick. Technically, Roscoe Parrish was our "first" selection a few years ago, when we took him in the second round. He hasn't really played enough to judge whether he will be good or not, though he did start to show some flashes last year. I think the jury is still out on Parrish. We also drafted Andre Reed, though I don't believe he was our first round pick. I believe he was taken in the second round of the 86 draft after Buffalo had taken Bruce Smith. That choice turned out rather well I think.

 

Perless Price was the 22nd pick of round 2 in 1999. We took a first round corner that year (Antwoine Winfield).

Also, I don't agree with Parrish "technically" being a 1st rounder for the sake of this discussion.

 

That said, there is much to like about your post. We are clearly in a crisis situation at WR and TE. Honestly, I would be OK taking either in round 1, especially because I don't really expect Evans to stay in Buffalo. Just a hunch.

But, AKC is right. The draft is generally the best place to get DTs (and for that matter DEs) and the only place to get a LT. The Bills can block these days. On paper, I think their OL is better than average, but they are 1 injury away from having the dreaded Duke Preston take the field, and he compares unfavorably to Kyle Williams in terms of ability at their positions. Also, put me in the camp that isn't high at all on Fowler, who looks like a good OC, but at the end of the day he is tossed around all too much.

 

In summary, Bills Management has to make a choice in the early rounds between pure need (WR and TE) and building a team properly (DT and OL). I guess this means that we find ourselves once again needing some luck.

[Coach Tuesday]

Perless Price was the 22nd pick of round 2 in 1999. We took a first round corner that year (Antwoine Winfield).

Also, I don't agree with Parrish "technically" being a 1st rounder for the sake of this discussion.

 

That said, there is much to like about your post. We are clearly in a crisis situation at WR and TE. Honestly, I would be OK taking either in round 1, especially because I don't really expect Evans to stay in Buffalo. Just a hunch.

But, AKC is right. The draft is generally the best place to get DTs (and for that matter DEs) and the only place to get a LT. The Bills can block these days. On paper, I think their OL is better than average, but they are 1 injury away from having the dreaded Duke Preston take the field, and he compares unfavorably to Kyle Williams in terms of ability at their positions. Also, put me in the camp that isn't high at all on Fowler, who looks like a good OC, but at the end of the day he is tossed around all too much.

 

In summary, Bills Management has to make a choice in the early rounds between pure need (WR and TE) and building a team properly (DT and OL). I guess this means that we find ourselves once again needing some luck.

 

If Clady falls to us, do we take him, put him at RG for a year or two (until we cut Walker) and move Butler to center?

[obie_wan]

If Clady falls to us, do we take him, put him at RG for a year or two (until we cut Walker) and move Butler to center?

 

without a doubt you take Clady and you play your best players.

 

Since Butler is taking classes at Ivy league colleges, he is obviously smart enough to learn to play C. He may be too tall however.

 

Worst case he backs up at multiple line positons, incluidng LT that he played in college.

 

They probably alos need an experienced C (not the DUKE) until a real legitimate C emerges as ready to start.

[Bill from NYC]

If Clady falls to us, do we take him, put him at RG for a year or two (until we cut Walker) and move Butler to center?

 

I haven't seen Clady play but if he is good, that is an idea that is hard to find fault with.

 

Normally I have strong feelings about who the Bills should take on draft day. This year is different. Our receivers are just awful. Evans simply cannot carry the load. Royal seems as liely to drop a pass than to catch one. We need a ton of young help.

Yet, you and AKC make great points. The draft is the best place to go for DTs and blockers.

 

The good news is that we signed a corner as a ufa!

[Sisyphean Bills]

It seems obvious that a bad team that tries to build from the outside in is going to have some issues, especially, if their interior is filled with the soft and creamy Oreo cookie filling. On offense, if the QB has no time to throw or is getting injured, it doesn't matter if Holt and Bruce are on the outside. On defense, it doesn't matter if you got Deion and Deion Jr. if other teams can gash you up the gut for 8 yards a carry.

 

The good news is that the Bills have actually woken up in the last year and spent some attention and money on their lines. I don't think their work is complete, myself. But, at least it is a step in the right direction and better than playing ostrich and using draft day as a publicity stunt.