The Big Cat Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 I love Willis McGahee. Always have. But lately I've been less than impressed. When questioned about improving the run game yesterday, Jauron, as he usually does, responded appropriately saying it's an area that the TEAM will address. But let's face the music folks, Buffalo WILL DRAFT A RB ON DAY ONE IN 2007-I'll wager my unborn child. It's clear that Willis needs competition, and it's clear the Bills need a backup plan for post-2007. My question is: if our soon-to-be-drafted RB proves a worthy replacement, what sort of trade fodder does Willis make and does it make financial/strategic sense to offer him up for a.) a few more players or b.) a few draft picks or c.) a combination of the two? Is it also completlely out of the question that he won't become trade bait even before the 2007 draft? I haven't been following the financial innerworkings of the Bills/NFL for very long so I'm looking for some venerated wisdom here. What is the consensus of this board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Unless some team is crazy enough to give us a 1st round pick, or a player we really need, Willis is here for his last season in 2007. His possible replacement will be drafted in the 2 to 4 round area. If replacement succeeds, Willis is gone via FA. If replacement doesn't work, our 1st round pick or 1st FA signee is a RB-Willis is still gone after 2007. There's no way Ralph pays Willis "Disappointment" McGahee before next year. Keep in mind that extentions for Lee Evans & JP Losman will be priorities next year, not Willis. 2007 is Willis McGahee's last year in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochBillsFan Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 I don;t know, but I love the work you did with Paul Simon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 I don;t know, but I love the work you did with Paul Simon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 I don;t know, but I love the work you did with Paul Simon but have you ever heard my cover of "When a Man Loves a Woman"? It chits all over "Bridge Over Troubled Water" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 Unless some team is crazy enough to give us a 1st round pick, or a player we really need, Willis is here for his last season in 2007. His possible replacement will be drafted in the 2 to 4 round area. If replacement succeeds, Willis is gone via FA. If replacement doesn't work, our 1st round pick or 1st FA signee is a RB-Willis is still gone after 2007. There's no way Ralph pays Willis "Disappointment" McGahee before next year. Keep in mind that extentions for Lee Evans & JP Losman will be priorities next year, not Willis. 2007 is Willis McGahee's last year in Buffalo. Not to be the guy fluffing his own thread but... While I am not in the blame-the-OLine-boat, couldn't a team with an already established running game (Denver perhaps) benefit from a player with McGahee's size and potential skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 I agree, Willis has not been the standout homerun hitter that he was in college. And I also agree, he doesn't deserve top-5 money, as he's not a top-5 running back. However, everyone here seems to discount what he does bring to the table. Everyone seems to think that a 4th round pick can bring what McGahee brings, and maybe more. I concede that it's possible, if you get VERY lucky with your pick, but it's certainly not probable. And the "Look at what A-Train was able to do" crowd? Come on people, get serious. The fact is, Willis will rush for ~1200 yards every year if he plays 16 games. That's not 'elite-back' territory, but it's also not something that any Joe Athlete can come in and do. People seem to forget that in Willis' 14 games this year (13 if you don't count the Packers game where he played one series) he played 9 games against the top-8 rushing defenses in the NFL- (ranking in parenthesis): Minnesota (1), Baltimore (2), Jacksonville (4), New England (5) twice, Chicago (6), San Diego (7), and Miami (8) twice. You'd hope that Willis would be able to raise his game a level when going against the best, but at the same time, nobody in the league was able to run on those teams consistently. I agree, sometimes he appears disinterested, and sometimes he doesn't run the way we 'experts' think he should. No question I'd love to see that ypc jump into the 4.2-4.4 range. But he has been effective in an offense that has only recently discovered a minimal level of comfortability with their QB and offensive line. Not to make excuses for Willis, but I think he will do more next year, because Losman will be able to do more. If he can be extended at a price that is consistent with the #10-#15 RB's in the league, I would be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyrite Gal Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 My sense is that the bottomline on WM is this: He has shown and demonstrated that he can be an outstanding rusher at times and he brings some talents and abilities to the game which are impressive. However, he has simply not realized that outstanding potential all the time nor in all facets of the game. Further, there are certainly a number of legitimate explanations for why he has not realized this potential all the time (such as the devastating injury at the end of his college career he worked back from, such as being part of a troubled Bills team without productive O leadership at QB, having a poor OL, and/or limited attempts to even see if he has consistent pass catching skills from Fairchild. However, the proof is in the pudding and many fans have simply at least grown tired of or given up on him ever being the consistent very good (many ask for or even require greatness) producer at RB for the Bills. This perspective has been intensified by a presentation of himself which strikes some fans as cavalier and he has made comments like his "Baby Momma" effort with Stephen Smith which has driven some Bills fans to want him gone yesterday. Personally, I really couldn't care less if he is an idiot as long as he is productive on the field. However, he does not seem to have the personal make-up to be a team and community leader in terms of his presentation and absent consistent very good (forget great) on field production the absence of real leadership on this offense in terms of a personality or method for successful operation his lack of leadership skills for the community and potentially the team becomes glaringly obvious and an annoyance. My sense is that each person is his own person and as long as he is not a cancer on the team I have no requirement that he be a team leader. However, in the absence of very good personal production and a winning record for the team, the whining from some fans his personality has allowed to fester makes rooting for this team a lot less enjoyable for this fan. I think that particularly since he is under contract for another season, and his inconsistent performances despite his occaisonal showings of great potential puts the Bills in a position to simply play this out and show WM the money if he shows he can be a very good performer as next season rolls on and not give him a big contract if he continues to underperform. However, there is likely to be so much whining about him from some fans on outlets like TSW, I am beginning to hope the Bills somehow move him for value just to shut some people up (though even if he is gone there will still be an ongoing dribble of fan complaints as there were about Bledsoe even after he was not our problem anymore. I think with some good tough consistent leadership from the ownership and GM, this whole thing can be played out to the Bills benefit. However, I do not know if doing this is going to be worth the price of the various extreme or fact-free crusades which are going to surface as his contract moves to its completion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 I agree, Willis has not been the standout homerun hitter that he was in college. And I also agree, he doesn't deserve top-5 money, as he's not a top-5 running back. However, everyone here seems to discount what he does bring to the table. Everyone seems to think that a 4th round pick can bring what McGahee brings, and maybe more. I concede that it's possible, if you get VERY lucky with your pick, but it's certainly not probable. And the "Look at what A-Train was able to do" crowd? Come on people, get serious. The fact is, Willis will rush for ~1200 yards every year if he plays 16 games. That's not 'elite-back' territory, but it's also not something that any Joe Athlete can come in and do. People seem to forget that in Willis' 14 games this year (13 if you don't count the Packers game where he played one series) he played 9 games against the top-8 rushing defenses in the NFL- (ranking in parenthesis): Minnesota (1), Baltimore (2), Jacksonville (4), New England (5) twice, Chicago (6), San Diego (7), and Miami (8) twice. You'd hope that Willis would be able to raise his game a level when going against the best, but at the same time, nobody in the league was able to run on those teams consistently. I agree, sometimes he appears disinterested, and sometimes he doesn't run the way we 'experts' think he should. No question I'd love to see that ypc jump into the 4.2-4.4 range. But he has been effective in an offense that has only recently discovered a minimal level of comfortability with their QB and offensive line. Not to make excuses for Willis, but I think he will do more next year, because Losman will be able to do more. If he can be extended at a price that is consistent with the #10-#15 RB's in the league, I would be very happy. This is a very interesting post and since it's a slow day at the office I decided to compile some info regarding so-called elite backs and how they fared against these same defenses... (FOR THOSE PLAYERS WHO FACED THESE TEAMS TWICE THE NUMBERS ARE AVERAGED) Minnesota: WM: 28 rushes 78 yards and 1 TD Frank Gore: 19 rushes 41 yards 0 TD Stephen Jackson: 25 rushes 142 yards 3 TDs Clinton Portis: 10 rushes 39 yards 1 TD Baltimore: WM: 11 rushes 23 yards 0 TD LT: 27 rushes 98 yards 0 TD Rudi Johnson: 18 rushes 77 yards 1 TD Travis Henry: 27 rushes 107 yards 1 TD Larry Johnson: 23 rushes 120 yards 0 TD Jacksonville: WM: 12 rushes 63 yards 2 TD Julius Jones: 17 rushes 72 yards 1 TD Clinton Portis: 27 rushes 112 yards 1 TD Brian Westbrook: 13 rushes 38 yards 0 TD Larry Johnosn: 33 rushes 138 yards 3 TD New England: (played against no good runners) WM: 20 rushes 64.5 yards 0 TD Rudi Johnson: 14 rushes 65 yards 0 TD M. Jones-Drew: 19 rushes 131 yards 2 TD Chicago: WM: 14 rushes 50 yards 0 TD Frank Gore: 12 rushes 111 yards 0 TD Stephen Jackson: 18 rushes 81 yards 1 TD Tiki Barber: 19 rushes 141 yards 0 TD San Diego: WM: 16 rushes 26 yards 1 TD Frank Gore: 10 rushes 55 yards 0 TD Larry Johnson: 23.5 rushes 108 yards 2 TD Stephen Jackson: 18 rushes 84 yards 1 TD Rudi Johnson: 18 rushes 85 yards 1 TD Miami: (did not face any elite runners and held just about every opponent to similar numbers as WM) WM: 26.5 rushes 85 yards 0 TD Larry Johnson: 18 rushes 75 yards 1 TD These comparisons are made against the players we all hope Willis to be and in some circumstances he's right on par, but on the whole, he's just slightly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shagmago Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 I love Willis McGahee. Always have. But lately I've been less than impressed. When questioned about improving the run game yesterday, Jauron, as he usually does, responded appropriately saying it's an area that the TEAM will address. But let's face the music folks, Buffalo WILL DRAFT A RB ON DAY ONE IN 2007-I'll wager my unborn child. It's clear that Willis needs competition, and it's clear the Bills need a backup plan for post-2007. My question is: if our soon-to-be-drafted RB proves a worthy replacement, what sort of trade fodder does Willis make and does it make financial/strategic sense to offer him up for a.) a few more players or b.) a few draft picks or c.) a combination of the two? Is it also completlely out of the question that he won't become trade bait even before the 2007 draft? I haven't been following the financial innerworkings of the Bills/NFL for very long so I'm looking for some venerated wisdom here. What is the consensus of this board? Tony Hunt from Penn State would be the only exceptable choice at #12....The guys got awesome leg power.He would beat out Mcgahee with little problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tennesseeboy Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 We would be insane to pick a running back at 12. We have to have a Justin Blaylock at offensive guard or one of the two best defensive tackles. PERIOD. And depending on what we get in round one we'll get the other in round two. I wouldn't be expecting a running back in round three or four either. McGahee is a pedestrian running back who can play next year. Given a strong offensive line he could even be a better than average running back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. K Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 I agree, Willis has not been the standout homerun hitter that he was in college. And I also agree, he doesn't deserve top-5 money, as he's not a top-5 running back. However, everyone here seems to discount what he does bring to the table. Everyone seems to think that a 4th round pick can bring what McGahee brings, and maybe more. I concede that it's possible, if you get VERY lucky with your pick, but it's certainly not probable. And the "Look at what A-Train was able to do" crowd? Come on people, get serious. The fact is, Willis will rush for ~1200 yards every year if he plays 16 games. That's not 'elite-back' territory, but it's also not something that any Joe Athlete can come in and do. People seem to forget that in Willis' 14 games this year (13 if you don't count the Packers game where he played one series) he played 9 games against the top-8 rushing defenses in the NFL- (ranking in parenthesis): Minnesota (1), Baltimore (2), Jacksonville (4), New England (5) twice, Chicago (6), San Diego (7), and Miami (8) twice. You'd hope that Willis would be able to raise his game a level when going against the best, but at the same time, nobody in the league was able to run on those teams consistently. I agree, sometimes he appears disinterested, and sometimes he doesn't run the way we 'experts' think he should. No question I'd love to see that ypc jump into the 4.2-4.4 range. But he has been effective in an offense that has only recently discovered a minimal level of comfortability with their QB and offensive line. Not to make excuses for Willis, but I think he will do more next year, because Losman will be able to do more. If he can be extended at a price that is consistent with the #10-#15 RB's in the league, I would be very happy. I agree with you strongly. I think people are too ready to throw a player overboard if he isn't perfect. I have some problems with Willis's play, but replacing him with a player who won't have equivalent problems (if not necessarily the same ones) is by no means guaranteed. This same syndrome of "throw the bum out" was heard with Antowain Smith and Travis Henry. Neither of them is a great back, but both of them were very good backs when we dumped them. I remember us drafting guys like Sammy Morris and Shawn Bryson and expecting them to be Thurman Thomas--well, they weren't. Running back is definitely a position where you can find a gem after the frist two rounds, but coming up with a 1200-1400 year-per-year back is not as easy as people seem to think. I say draft a RB somewhere in the Spring, because Willis may not be here after next season. But don't trade Willis yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan Trapped in Pats Land Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 How can you have 26.5 rushes in a single game? I like ATrain as a backup, and he can block 1000X better than WM. At 12, you have to think seriously about a LB depending on what happens with Fletcher Baker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2003Contenders Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 I agree, Willis has not been the standout homerun hitter that he was in college. And I also agree, he doesn't deserve top-5 money, as he's not a top-5 running back. However, everyone here seems to discount what he does bring to the table. Everyone seems to think that a 4th round pick can bring what McGahee brings, and maybe more. I concede that it's possible, if you get VERY lucky with your pick, but it's certainly not probable. And the "Look at what A-Train was able to do" crowd? Come on people, get serious. The fact is, Willis will rush for ~1200 yards every year if he plays 16 games. That's not 'elite-back' territory, but it's also not something that any Joe Athlete can come in and do. People seem to forget that in Willis' 14 games this year (13 if you don't count the Packers game where he played one series) he played 9 games against the top-8 rushing defenses in the NFL- (ranking in parenthesis): Minnesota (1), Baltimore (2), Jacksonville (4), New England (5) twice, Chicago (6), San Diego (7), and Miami (8) twice. You'd hope that Willis would be able to raise his game a level when going against the best, but at the same time, nobody in the league was able to run on those teams consistently. I agree, sometimes he appears disinterested, and sometimes he doesn't run the way we 'experts' think he should. No question I'd love to see that ypc jump into the 4.2-4.4 range. But he has been effective in an offense that has only recently discovered a minimal level of comfortability with their QB and offensive line. Not to make excuses for Willis, but I think he will do more next year, because Losman will be able to do more. If he can be extended at a price that is consistent with the #10-#15 RB's in the league, I would be very happy. I agree with much of what you have to say here. Note also that Willis played hurt most of the season. I think the guy is pretty tough, despite the perception that he plays with little or no fire. Also, after the Jets debacle, he proved to be pretty good in pass protection, which is something that everyone forgets was always a problem for Travis. To me, the gamble that Marv needs to make is this: Right now Willis is coming off a pretty lousy season stat-wise, yet he and his agent are asking for a contract extension. We know that Rosenhouse is sure to ask for way more than Willis is worth -- but we also know that he and Willis have very little in the way of bargaining chips. Thus, this could be an opportunity for the Bills to buy low. Conversely, 2007 becomes a contract year for Willis -- and he will be highly motivated for a big payday. That could mean a great 2007 season -- and it could also mean that he prices himself out of Buffalo. Maybe I am naive, but part of what made the Kelly/Thurman/Reed trio so great for me was that they were home-grown, so to speak. I'd always advocate re-signing our own, provided that they warrant it. And if nothing else, it sounds like Willis really does want to be here, despite detractors who have suggested that he'd rather be in Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TE2LEEn08 Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 My sense is that the bottomline on WM is this: He has shown and demonstrated that he can be an outstanding rusher at times and he brings some talents and abilities to the game which are impressive. However, he has simply not realized that outstanding potential all the time nor in all facets of the game. Further, there are certainly a number of legitimate explanations for why he has not realized this potential all the time (such as the devastating injury at the end of his college career he worked back from, such as being part of a troubled Bills team without productive O leadership at QB, having a poor OL, and/or limited attempts to even see if he has consistent pass catching skills from Fairchild. However, the proof is in the pudding and many fans have simply at least grown tired of or given up on him ever being the consistent very good (many ask for or even require greatness) producer at RB for the Bills. This perspective has been intensified by a presentation of himself which strikes some fans as cavalier and he has made comments like his "Baby Momma" effort with Stephen Smith which has driven some Bills fans to want him gone yesterday. Personally, I really couldn't care less if he is an idiot as long as he is productive on the field. However, he does not seem to have the personal make-up to be a team and community leader in terms of his presentation and absent consistent very good (forget great) on field production the absence of real leadership on this offense in terms of a personality or method for successful operation his lack of leadership skills for the community and potentially the team becomes glaringly obvious and an annoyance. My sense is that each person is his own person and as long as he is not a cancer on the team I have no requirement that he be a team leader. However, in the absence of very good personal production and a winning record for the team, the whining from some fans his personality has allowed to fester makes rooting for this team a lot less enjoyable for this fan. I think that particularly since he is under contract for another season, and his inconsistent performances despite his occaisonal showings of great potential puts the Bills in a position to simply play this out and show WM the money if he shows he can be a very good performer as next season rolls on and not give him a big contract if he continues to underperform. However, there is likely to be so much whining about him from some fans on outlets like TSW, I am beginning to hope the Bills somehow move him for value just to shut some people up (though even if he is gone there will still be an ongoing dribble of fan complaints as there were about Bledsoe even after he was not our problem anymore. I think with some good tough consistent leadership from the ownership and GM, this whole thing can be played out to the Bills benefit. However, I do not know if doing this is going to be worth the price of the various extreme or fact-free crusades which are going to surface as his contract moves to its completion. I agree whole heartedly with your take on Willis, Pyrite. I'm just wondering if the original poster has ever seen #21 play a game in person. The dude is an animal and unless we are willing to use a #1 Draft pick on a RB next year I think we should resign the guy. Watching him in person for that home game against Miami was amazing. Willis was getting pouded on and just kept coming back and kept coming back. He's definately back for '07 with no contract extension (IMO) and it would be nice to see him in all the OTA's and offseason work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 The fact is, Willis will rush for ~1200 yards every year if he plays 16 games. That's not 'elite-back' territory, but it's also not something that any Joe Athlete can come in and do. People seem to forget that in Willis' 14 games this year (13 if you don't count the Packers game where he played one series) he played 9 games against the top-8 rushing defenses in the NFL- (ranking in parenthesis): Minnesota (1), Baltimore (2), Jacksonville (4), New England (5) twice, Chicago (6), San Diego (7), and Miami (8) twice. You'd hope that Willis would be able to raise his game a level when going against the best, but at the same time, nobody in the league was able to run on those teams consistently. the FACT is: he didnt even hit 1000 yards in 14 - FINE - 13 games this season. that means he averaged less than 75 yards per game. he's 16th in rushing attempts. everyone above him has over 1000, and 7 people under him have over 1000 yards. he dances behind the line and is not a downhill runner. the fact is, we need to stop making excuses for him 13 games is enough for him to have over 1000 yards and WAY MORE than 6 tds 6 tds is unacceptable i am, however, all for keeping him going into this year and telling him to run for his money. then maybe tag him and trade him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Trooth Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 My 2 cents is this... Willis will have to play for a contract, if he plays at all. The Bills must protect themselves from a potential holdout by Willis as well. That stated, it is very unlikely that they would consider themselves protected simply, and only, by drafting a rookie in round 3-4. I don't see them grabbing a back in round 1 or 2. So, I would think they would make a pitch at a RB in free agency...Ladell Betts (if he hasn't signed with skins) or Michael Turner, perhaps. If the Bills wave starting RB money at either of these guys, they win. SD will not match the starter money on Turner to continue as LT's caddy. Betts, as long as Portis is in town, is his caddy... so you've go to believe he would jump at a chance to start elsewhere. The only thing that the Bills have to figure out how to do is sell a FA RB such as the above that, with Willis in the house, that they will go into TC as the #1 back. They'd almost have to move or release Willis fairly soon to sell that. Bottom line... Bills grab a RB in FA, Bills draft a RB to supplement this. Who knows? Anything can happen... and probably will. Maybe a draft day package to get an extra pick or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 im also a big fan of grabbing tony hunt from penn state in the 2nd and DEFINITELY if hes there in the 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 I'm just wondering if the original poster has ever seen #21 play a game in person. The dude is an animal and unless we are willing to use a #1 Draft pick on a RB next year I think we should resign the guy. Watching him in person for that home game against Miami was amazing. Willis was getting pouded on and just kept coming back and kept coming back. He's definately back for '07 with no contract extension (IMO) and it would be nice to see him in all the OTA's and offseason work. The Miami game, the Minnesota game, the Jacksonville game....All games where Willis' numbers were far from fantastic, and yet the Bills continued to pound him in the 4th quarter and he was instrumental in the victories. He has improved in pass protection. He doesn't turn the ball over. He just turned 25 years old. Overall, he has been incredibly durable, but he has proven he is willing to play at less than 100%. He puked and was knocked out in two consecutive games, and came back both times with a vengeance. Shipping this guy out of town because you don't like his baby's momma, or the Miami Hurricanes, or his agent, is just plain rediculous. Thinking you will get equal production by throwing a dart at a 3rd or 4th round running back is rediculous. He is not in the top-8 backs in the NFL, but he's certainly in the top-15. If they can work out a deal that pays him accordingly, why would that be a problem? Additionally, Rosenhaus is doing himself, Willis, and all NFL players a disservice if he doesn't seek the most lucrative deal for his client. Don't blame him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 The Miami game, the Minnesota game, the Jacksonville game....All games where Willis' numbers were far from fantastic, and yet the Bills continued to pound him in the 4th quarter and he was instrumental in the victories. He has improved in pass protection. He doesn't turn the ball over. He just turned 25 years old. Overall, he has been incredibly durable, but he has proven he is willing to play at less than 100%. He puked and was knocked out in two consecutive games, and came back both times with a vengeance. Shipping this guy out of town because you don't like his baby's momma, or the Miami Hurricanes, or his agent, is just plain rediculous. Thinking you will get equal production by throwing a dart at a 3rd or 4th round running back is rediculous. He is not in the top-8 backs in the NFL, but he's certainly in the top-15. If they can work out a deal that pays him accordingly, why would that be a problem? Additionally, Rosenhaus is doing himself, Willis, and all NFL players a disservice if he doesn't seek the most lucrative deal for his client. Don't blame him... this is all well in good, but little has been mentioned regarding Willis' trade value which is where I intended this thread to go... seems though that folks have treated the prospect of dealing Willis as a non-issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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