BOTTOM LINE.......

[Chalkie Gerzowski]

Who says that Green Bay is going to be able to survive the new CBA?  Ticket prices are a small part of the issue.  The Bills have had no trouble competing with their ticket pricing, with the revenue sharing that was put in place.

 

Corporate money is the issue.  Now that skybox, PSL, and naming right revenue is included in the salary cap, small markets are going to have to match that revenue in the larger markets to remain competitive.

 

Ultimately, this deal doesn't mean that the Bills will have to move, but as the salary cap increases with each new deal Jones or Snyder makes, the Bills' payroll will fall farther below the cap.  Signings like Spikes, Fletcher, Milloy, and Bledsoe will be a thing of the past, and they'll lose young guys like McGahee, Losman, and Evans when they play out their rookie contracts.

 

In short, they'll be run a lot like the Sabres, Marlins, and A's are currently being run, which might not be a bad thing.

656562[/snapback]

 

If people in Green Bay can afford an average ticket price of 54 dollars, I don't see how Bills fans can't afford an average ticket price of 50 dollars. Ticket prices though aren't going to determine whether the team stays or not. I think people would pony up to pay more if there was/is tangible evidence the team will remain in Buffalo.

 

The idea of haves and have nots in the league though, that could be the fatal blow to more than just one small market team.

[Kelly the Dog]

The Bills made between 10 mil (according to the News) and 20+ mil (according to Forbes) profit last year. That was BEFORE the new TV contracts added about 20-30 million more per team (which is a LOT more than the salary cap jump). The worth of the team is going up by leaps and bounds on a year basis.

 

I am glad Ralph is doing what he is doing, and he has been fabulous about keeping the team in Buffalo, and he is doing this keep KEEP the team in Buffalo, which is entirely commendable. And while he has to say a lot of the stuff he is saying because telling the truth would lessen his argument, this is not about breaking even. This is about making more millions per year than he is presently making.

[Lori]

If people in Green Bay can afford an average ticket price of 54 dollars, I don't see how Bills fans can't afford an average ticket price of 50 dollars.  Ticket prices though aren't going to determine whether the team stays or not.  I think people would pony up to pay more if there was/is tangible evidence the team will remain in Buffalo.

 

The idea of haves and have nots in the league though, that could be the fatal blow to more than just one small market team.

657061[/snapback]

True on both counts. My seasons aren't that far from $50/game already; I grumble when they raise 'em (especially if they do so after a crappy year like 2005), but I still ante up.

 

And as the details of the revenue-sharing deal continue to leak out, there are at least four teams that should be regretting their 'yes' votes. For example: Jacksonville is covering the upper deck at Alltel so they can actually sell out a game every now and then. How do you think that will affect their compliance with the 'total ticket revenue within 80% of the league average' qualifier, when the Redskins are selling out a 91,000-seat stadium at premium prices every week?

 

Thanks to cheap tix, a small (and shrinking) market, and an elderly owner, the Bills appear to be closest to the chopping block... but they won't be the only ones. And if the Big Boys' Club ever finds a way around Green Bay's unique ownership structure? Don't think for a second they wouldn't pull the plug.

[Chalkie Gerzowski]

I would have thought Wayne Weaver (Jags owner) would have been a bit more vocal. Wonder what was up with that.

[JDG]

The Bills made between 10 mil (according to the News) and 20+ mil (according to Forbes) profit last year. That was BEFORE the new TV contracts added about 20-30 million more per team (which is a LOT more than the salary cap jump). The worth of the team is going up by leaps and bounds on a year basis.

 

I am glad Ralph is doing what he is doing, and he has been fabulous about keeping the team in Buffalo, and he is doing this keep KEEP the team in Buffalo, which is entirely commendable. And while he has to say a lot of the stuff he is saying because telling the truth would lessen his argument, this is not about breaking even. This is about making more millions per year than he is presently making.

657064[/snapback]

 

I think that it is also worth noting that as more and more revenue in the NFL is being shared that the NFL starts to develop a greater and greater interest in the Bills franchise being located in the market where it will make the most money.

 

John D.

[Kelly the Dog]

I think that it is also worth noting that as more and more revenue in the NFL is being shared that the NFL starts to develop a greater and greater interest in the Bills franchise being located in the market where it will make the most money. 

 

John D.

657244[/snapback]

Frankly, everything I know and everything i think makes me believe that the league loves Buffalo and wants to keep the team here. Contrary to popular belief, everything isnt about making the most millions. That is only for a few people. The Bills and their history and their fans and their losing and their following is great for the NFL. Just because the city has lost a lot of people doesnt mean the NFL has lost that number of fans. Quite the opposite. And the NFL doesnt really care if people who watch the Bills are in Buffalo or Phoenix or Virginia or Los Angeles. If you think the NFL doesnt know about Bills fans and Bills backers clubs and the following the team gets outside of Buffalo you're nuts. I guarantee you the league does not want the Bills tp just move to a bigger town, the NFL would lose viewers.

[JDG]

Frankly, everything I know and everything i think makes me believe that the league loves Buffalo and wants to keep the team here. Contrary to popular belief, everything isnt about making the most millions. That is only for a few people. The Bills and their history and their fans and their losing and their following is great for the NFL. Just because the city has lost a lot of people doesnt mean the NFL has lost that number of fans. Quite the opposite. And the NFL doesnt really care if people who watch the Bills are in Buffalo or Phoenix or Virginia or Los Angeles. If you think the NFL doesnt know about Bills fans and Bills backers clubs and the following the team gets outside of Buffalo you're nuts. I guarantee you the league does not want the Bills tp just move to a bigger town, the NFL would lose viewers.

657334[/snapback]

 

Wow, I can't believe that you and I have had such different reactions on this point. Reading articles like this one in the Buffalo News this weekend left me with this deeply sinking feeling that the NFL would like nothing more than to move the Bills once Ralph Wilson dies. I think the writing was on the wall with the very paltry revenue sharing deal that was initially approved by the owners, which provided for what - a max of $5 million of "sharing payments" from the top revenue teams, when the gap between the top and bottom teams is more like $100 million (and growing)? Now, some of these "qualifyers" in the revenue sharing deal look like pure anti-Buffalo poison pills. The bit about denying revenue sharing to "new owners" seems clearly directed at the NFL's oldest (or at least Ralph's one of the oldest) owners. The bit about ticket prices also seems clearly directed at the NFL franchise with the lowest average ticket prices.

 

The NFL is filled with very smart businessmen. I am sure that those businessmen recognize that if consultants were coming in from Mars, and were looking to start a new sports League in the US with 32 franchises that Buffalo would be what, 50th? 75th? on the List?

 

I think you are really underestimating the gap in market size between Buffalo and other cities, as well as the gargantuan gap in corporate presence between Buffalo and other markets. The Bills Backers clubs are nice - but the Bills Backers are comprised of what - mostly 1st Generation WNY expatriates? The size of Bills Backers clubs are probably just a time-lag function of the Buffalo population - and as we well know, Buffalo managed to pull off a decline during one of the most booming decades this country has ever known. Thinking truly long term, the NFL eventually wants to expand oversees - but there is probably a natural mathematical limit on the size of a football League, where human bodies can't take much more than a 20-game season. Its hard to see Buffalo beging a competitive pro sports market in 30 years just within the US, let alone in larger market. Most importantly of all, however, a larger market is going to generate more local home-grown fans, as well as more Backers clubs. As for TV ratings, you need no further disproof of your point than to look at our 2006 schedule with 16 1pm games. Not only are we not scheduled for the "B Showcase" of Monday Night football, but we're not scheduled for the first 10 or so installments of the "A Showcase" on Sunday night, and in fact, we're not even scheduled to be "in the mix" for the "C Showcase" of being the 4pm national game (ratings of which often approached those for MNF in past years.) And if you don't think that is all about market power, look no further than the NY Jets getting scheduled for a late-season MNF game in the "B Showcase." Sorry Kelly, but the simple truth of the matter is that the Jets, Giants, Redskins, Cowboys, and Raiders get viewers (no matter how bad they are), and the Bills simply do not. There just aren't enough of us. And I think that the NFL has shown its true intentions with this new revenue-sharing agreement. I hope that Golisano has a good anti-trust lawyer.....

 

John D.

[Kelly the Dog]

Wow, I can't believe that you and I have had such different reactions on this point.  Reading articles like this one in the Buffalo News this weekend left me with this deeply sinking feeling that the NFL would like nothing more than to move the Bills once Ralph Wilson dies.    I think the writing was on the wall with the very paltry revenue sharing deal that was initially approved by the owners, which provided for what - a max of $5 million of "sharing payments" from the top revenue teams, when the gap between the top and bottom teams is more like $100 million (and growing)?    Now, some of these "qualifyers" in the revenue sharing deal look like pure anti-Buffalo poison pills.  The bit about denying revenue sharing to "new owners" seems clearly directed at the NFL's oldest (or at least Ralph's one of the oldest) owners.    The bit about ticket prices also seems clearly directed at the NFL franchise with the lowest average ticket prices.

 

The NFL is filled with very smart businessmen.  I am sure that those businessmen recognize that if consultants were coming in from Mars, and were looking to start a new sports League in the US with 32 franchises that Buffalo would be what, 50th?  75th?  on the List? 

 

I think you are really underestimating the gap in market size between Buffalo and other cities, as well as the gargantuan gap in corporate presence between Buffalo and other markets.  The Bills Backers clubs are nice - but the Bills Backers are comprised of what - mostly 1st Generation WNY expatriates?    The size of Bills Backers clubs are probably just a time-lag function of the Buffalo population - and as we well know, Buffalo managed to pull off a decline during one of the most booming decades this country has ever known.    Thinking truly long term, the NFL eventually wants to expand oversees - but there is probably a natural mathematical limit on the size of a football League, where human bodies can't take much more than a 20-game season.    Its hard to see Buffalo beging a competitive pro sports market in 30 years just within the US, let alone in larger market.  Most importantly of all, however, a larger market is going to generate more local home-grown fans, as well as more Backers clubs.    As for TV ratings, you need no further disproof of your point than to look at our 2006 schedule with 16 1pm games.  Not only are we not scheduled for the "B Showcase" of Monday Night football, but we're not scheduled for the first 10 or so installments of the "A Showcase" on Sunday night, and in fact, we're not even scheduled to be "in the mix" for the "C Showcase" of being the 4pm national game (ratings of which often approached those for MNF in past years.)  And if you don't think that is all about market power, look no further than the NY Jets getting scheduled for a late-season MNF game in the "B Showcase."  Sorry Kelly, but the simple truth of the matter is that the Jets, Giants, Redskins, Cowboys, and Raiders get viewers (no matter how bad they are), and the Bills simply do not.  There just aren't enough of us.  And I think that the NFL has shown its true intentions with this new revenue-sharing agreement.    I hope that Golisano has a good anti-trust lawyer.....

 

John D.

657348[/snapback]

I thnk you may be under-estimating the Buffalo market size. First of all, very few of the numbers when you see figures ever include Canada. A lot of market share and population and those kinds of numbers are used with a big circle around a place, and then Canada isnt counted. There are a ton if Bills fans in southern Ontario and Toronto and they simply arent counted but the people who really know the numbers count them. Second of all, smart businessmen as you say also know that everything really isnt about numbers. You dont simply take the 32 biggest cities and think those are going to get the 32 largest audiences. That's just dumb. Sure, some NFL owners are all about making as much money as they can but most arent. The league is about making the most of the league and only part of that is how much money they can make. The Bills and their fans are great for the NFL.

 

The Bills when they were winning were all over the prime time because they were winning, and they were exciting and they had stars. The Bills arent on now because they arent winning, they arent expected to win and they have few stars. It is not because of the size of the town.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

What do you think the Bills are doing right now?  The Indians and A's don't hire expensive big-name managers and coaches, and they don't sign big-name free agents.

 

The difference between them and the Pirates and Royals is that they're better at scouting and player development. 

 

It's interesting that you would bring this up, since you've done nothing but B word and moan that the Bills haven't spent wads of money on Parcells junior or blown the bank on a FA guard.

656086[/snapback]

 

Unlike baseball, however, there is no NFL farm system. When you draft a guy, you absorb those first few seasons and then HAVE to break the bank to keep him. See: Nate Clements.

[JDG]

I thnk you may be under-estimating the Buffalo market size. First of all, very few of the numbers when you see figures ever include Canada. A lot of market share and population and those kinds of numbers are used with a big circle around a place, and  then Canada isnt counted. There are a ton if Bills fans in southern Ontario and Toronto and they simply arent counted but the people who really know the numbers count them. Second of all, smart businessmen as you say also know that everything really isnt about numbers. You dont simply take the 32 biggest cities and think those are going to get the 32 largest audiences. That's just dumb. Sure, some NFL owners are all about making as much money as they can but most arent. The league is about making the most of the league and only part of that is how much money they can make. The Bills and their fans are great for the NFL.

 

The Bills when they were winning were all over the prime time because they were winning, and they were exciting and they had stars. The Bills arent on now because they arent winning, they arent expected to win and they have few stars. It is not because of the size of the town.

657370[/snapback]

 

Kelly,

 

For one thing, I think that a substantial majority of the NFL Owners view the League as being principally a business in which they should try and make every dollar they can. To the extent that good football allows them to make more money, they support good football. I think the fact that an expansion team in Los Angeles, which would completely wreck competitive balance in the League, is even being *considered* is pure evidence of that.

 

If the Bills were a winner they would have at least a few prime time appearances, that's for sure - or at least a 4pm game or two. The NFL, however, I think would prefer to have a team that would merit primtime appearances even when the team is *not* winning. A team in Los Angeles, without question, would fit that criteria. Again, look at the Jets, a team whose prospects for the upcoming year is nearly identical to ours. Even better, look at Oakland - which is hardly a winner, and they have a whopping FOUR prime-time appearances... the Bills and their "Bills Backers" aren't even close to being in that league. Heck, even *Detroit* at least got one 4pm game this year (well, two if you count one 4pm game being played on the West Coast - but then again, Detroit is twice the size of Buffalo-Rochester)

 

As for Canada, Niagara County in Ontario has only 410,000 people. If you include Hamilton, you get another half million to be sure - but does Hamilton even have a Bills beat reporter? Are the Bills games being regularly televised in Hamilton? I could be wrong, but I don't think so - and so I find it hard to believe that you can give much weight to Hamilton in the "Bills Market." I think the Bills' Canadian fan base can largely be accounted for by Niagara metro area would bes a mere 1/5th the size of the Los Angeles metro area.) So, taking the combined Buffalo-Rochester-Niagara,ON metro area, Buffalo still ends up being smaller than San Antonio-Austin, and not terribly far ahead of Sacramento-Stockton or Portland-Salem. Stock up the corporate presence in Buffalo-Rochester-Niagara, and Buffalo may even fall behind these markets.

 

JDG

[dave mcbride]

It would be nice, but somehow I don't see the Bills as ever having a season ticket waiting list that's a mile long like the Packers do.  For whatever reason, it just hasn't happened.    Moreover, there is more separating the Bills from the Packers than just "institution status".....

Milwaukee Metro Area: 1.7 million people

Buffalo Metro Area: 1.2 million people

 

1990-2000 Population Growth Rate

Milwaukee: +5.1%

Buffalo:  -1.6%

 

Fortune 500 Companies:

Milwaukee Metro Area: 8 (+1 in Green Bay, +1 in Madison)

Buffalo Metro Area: ZERO  (+1 in Rochester)

 

O.k., Milwaukee may be closer in size to Buffalo than to Los Angeles, but in terms of growth, and particularly in terms of money, Buffalo lags well behind even Milwaukee.

 

JDG

657011[/snapback]

one of buffalo's biggest problems since the shift away from industrialism in america is that it's never been a corporate headquarters city - it's always been a regional hq city instead. detroit may be in bad shape, but the fact that that many major companies remain based there helps out the metro region greatly. regional headquarters are always shut down before central headquarters, of course ...

[Sisyphean Bills]

one of buffalo's biggest problems since the shift away from industrialism in america is that it's never been a corporate headquarters city - it's always been a regional hq city instead. detroit may be in bad shape, but the fact that that many major companies remain based there helps out the metro region greatly.  regional headquarters are always shut down before central headquarters, of course ...

657531[/snapback]

 

But Buffalo has the Falls!

[apuszczalowski]

I thnk you may be under-estimating the Buffalo market size. First of all, very few of the numbers when you see figures ever include Canada. A lot of market share and population and those kinds of numbers are used with a big circle around a place, and  then Canada isnt counted. There are a ton if Bills fans in southern Ontario and Toronto and they simply arent counted but the people who really know the numbers count them.

657370[/snapback]

 

Theres a bunch of fans in Southern Ontario but the closer you ge to Toronto, the fan support really goes down (for some reason they really like the CFL and could care less about the NFL) Also there are not too many fans who are willing ot make the 2+ hour drive from Toronto to RWS in the winter and have to cross the Border for a Bills game.

 

If the stadium was in Downtown Buffalo you would probably see alot more Canadian Bills fans (like you see Leafs fans at Sabres games)

[Kelly the Dog]

Theres a bunch of fans in Southern Ontario but the closer you ge to Toronto, the fan support really goes down (for some reason they really like the CFL and could care less about the NFL) Also there are not too many fans who are willing ot make the 2+ hour drive from Toronto to RWS in the winter and have to cross the Border for a Bills game.

 

If the stadium was in Downtown Buffalo you would probably see alot more Canadian Bills fans (like you see Leafs fans at Sabres games)

657546[/snapback]

Getting fans to games is one of the least problems. Unless the Bills suck for several years in a row with no hope to win and few good players, there will be no problem getting fans to fill the stadium. Ooops, that's what just happened and they still filled the stadium. Ralph could even raise ticket prices and still fill the stadium. The city loves the Bills. When we're talking about impoverished cities, there are few others worse than Buffalo, but guess what, people are not starving. They spend incredible amounts of money on booze. 50$ for a whole Sunday of football is a bargain when it's 50$ to take your wife to lunch and a movie. The area can easily support this team and does.

[sven233]

Well, it is becoming more and more obvious to see that the real problem may not be Ralph Wilson at all. It is what happens after it is not his team anymore. If there really is something in the new CBA that states that no new owner can use revenue sharing, then that will probably be it for the Bills in Buffalo after Ralph passes away.

 

If there is such a rule in there, then it is quite obvious that the NFL wants all small market teams out of the league. It is impossible for a small market team to survive and be competetive without revenue sharing. Why this rule even exists is beyond me. But, it is certainly looking pretty bad for the Bills unless they can work somehting out with a new owner.

 

I will just be devistated if they leave. I breathe the red, white, and blue. It would just completely turn everything upside down. Let's just hope and pray hey get this worked out.