Why Draft a DT at #8 and Pay Him Franchise $$

[Ozymandius]

DT is a great need but the Bills have other great needs as well on the OL and at safety, TE, and I'd even argue at LDE.

 

It's about risk management and evaluating past trends, something I hope a well-educated man like Marv can understand. It's really my only hope with him. Ngata is a bigger risk than Vernon Davis, who by all accounts has a tremendous work ethic in place.

[krazykat]

Ngata or Bunkley wouldn't play every D snap. Not in this D. A 3 or 4 man rotation has been mentioned by the Bills in this Cover 2.

 

So you'd pay a guy top 10 money to stand on the sidelines for 30-40 % of the Defensive snaps ?   

650213[/snapback]

Any DT that can't make our starting DL and that's drafted at 8th isn't worth the pick.

[obie_wan]

This is a very good point.  Another aspect of Ngata is that there are very few scouting reports on him that don't mention that he tends to take plays off and obviously he carries more than ideal weight (although he is very strong as well).  Even his own defensive coach at Oregon has made comments to the effect that IF he turns it on, IF he doesn't get fat, then he can be great.  Well, you know what?  For a player with those kinds of question marks, you do not fork over a multi-million dollar contract.

 

Think about all the Bills fans you know who are somewhat lazy and overweight (and there should be many).  Would you trust any of them to continue to work hard if they win the lottery?

 

To put it another way, name me ONE past player that fits Ngata's talents and body type that ended up dominating for the team that drafted him.  Ted Washington was drafted by SF but dominated for Buffalo.  Grady Jackson did most of his domination after he left Oakland and joined the Packers.  Who else?  Not Dan Wilkinson.

 

Don't forget Ngata hasn't always been healthy as well.  It's just not worth the risk.

650505[/snapback]

 

 

Mike Williams had the same rap on him when he came out and look how he turned out!

 

oh wait- nevermind

[The Jokeman]

Ngata is the best Defensive Tackle available.  Our biggest hole is defensive tackle. In fact, if we don't fill that hole, either through free agency (and so far we haven't) or through the draft we will have a top five choice in next year's draft. He can play NOW in whichever defense the powers that be are pushing (hell he could plug the middle in a 3-4 if we ever deemed it important to go that way).  Talent at the position will go down in the second (two or three DT's taken) the third (five or six taken) or the fourth (bottom of the barrel.) I like Huff, I like Davis...hell...I even like Young.  However I think we should go with the best player in the draft at the position we need most.  Ngata.

650553[/snapback]

I made my mock before TSN draft guide ever came out. Yet will use their guide as a point of reference.

 

Huff got a grade of an 8.3, Colledge a grade of 6.2 and Harris a grade of 7.8. In comparison Ngata got a grade of 8.3 Colledge a grade of 6.2 and looking at their rankings for a S candidate in Round 3, the first is Pat Watkins ranks a 6.9. Add the numbers up and my mock gives us a greater overall value (22.3 vs 21.4) which to me more important than individual.

 

Now to be fair they do rank Harris a 2nd Round talent (the 3rd best DT in the draft- which is rather high by most accounts) but let's use a scenario where a similar ranked S falls to us in Round 3 as I have Harris falling to us instead. Then we have Ngata 8.3, Colledge a 6.2 and finally Ko Simpson (their 3rd best S and 2nd round talent) as a 7.8. Which would then be equal to my mock (22.3 vs 22.3).

 

The only difference is Huff's versatility in playing CB might makes him a better prospect then Simpson and to me a little more valuable further proving we'd probably be better off with Huff. I'm sure you could come up with a combination that might be better # than my mock to combat me if get the guide which you're free to do but as others have said we have many needs and we might be able to get a good enough DT later in the draft if needed. Not to mention Harris at 300 lbs meets the leaner type DT we seem to want more than Ngata.

[Rico]

Huff got a grade of an 8.3, Colledge a grade of 6.2 and Harris a grade of 7.8. In comparison Ngata got a grade of 8.3 Colledge a grade of 6.2 and looking at their rankings for a S candidate in Round 3, the first is Pat Watkins ranks a 6.9. Add the numbers up and my mock gives us a greater overall value (22.3 vs 21.4) which to me more important than individual.

651011[/snapback]

Any chance that Colledge might still be there in the 3rd for us? I like what I've read about him much more than a lot of the other OT's, but would rather go OG like Joseph in the 2nd (want someone definitely ready to start there)... Best impact player available at #8, Huff would be great.

[The Jokeman]

Any chance that Colledge might still be there in the 3rd for us? I like what I've read about him much more than a lot of the other OT's, but would rather go OG like Joseph in the 2nd.... Best impact player available at #8, Huff would be great.

651014[/snapback]

There's always a chance, Joseph is probably a better player but to me it's so much harder finding a quality LT than a quality LG hence my taking Colledge. I admit I really do like Joseph too so could see using our 2nd on him and use our 3rd on a DT (Harris be my choice if he's still there) and then possibly use our second 3rd on an OT prospect, if Colledge and of Jonathan Scott were there it be great. As to me the only sure fire LT type prospects in the draft are Ferguson, E. Winston, Colledge and Scott. Everyone else is either a RT or a developmental guy. Plus my mock is a bit outdated in it was before we signed Craig Nall so the Croyle isn't as much of a need now.

 

Also, incase your wondering Joseph graded as a 7.5. Of course my thinking in taking Colledge we could shift Gandy to LG.

[BB2004]

Ngata or Bunkley wouldn't play every D snap. Not in this D. A 3 or 4 man rotation has been mentioned by the Bills in this Cover 2.

 

So you'd pay a guy top 10 money to stand on the sidelines for 30-40 % of the Defensive snaps ?   

650213[/snapback]

 

You have a good point, unless the Bills organization thinks that Ngata could be the really good. I am hoping we go after him with our #8.

[socalfan]

Ngata or Bunkley wouldn't play every D snap. Not in this D. A 3 or 4 man rotation has been mentioned by the Bills in this Cover 2.

 

So you'd pay a guy top 10 money to stand on the sidelines for 30-40 % of the Defensive snaps ?   

650213[/snapback]

 

How about these 5 reasons -

 

 

93 Sape, Lauvale DT 6-1 296 25 3 Utah

75 Tripplett, Larry DT 6-2 295 27 5 Washington

99 Jefferson, Jason DT 6-1 310 24 2 Wisconsin

77 Anderson, Tim DT 6-3 304 25 3 Ohio State

68 Brown, LaWaylon DT 6-5 305 25 1 Oklahoma State

 

These are our DT going into next season. And Sape is coming off IR from a leg injury. You don't even have a rotation with these guys.

[BillsGuyInMalta]

How about these 5 reasons -

93 Sape, Lauvale DT 6-1 296 25 3 Utah

75 Tripplett, Larry DT 6-2 295 27 5 Washington

99 Jefferson, Jason DT 6-1 310 24 2 Wisconsin

77 Anderson, Tim DT 6-3 304 25 3 Ohio State

68 Brown, LaWaylon DT 6-5 305 25 1 Oklahoma State

 

These are our DT going into next season.  And Sape is coming off IR from a leg injury.  You don't even have a rotation with these guys.

651119[/snapback]

I dont think ANYONE is advocating not taking a DT at all in this draft. In fact, I'm willing to bet 99% of the board wants the Bills to draft a DT on Day One.

 

I think whats being said is that the DT pool is very deep this year, so reaching on a guy like Ngata who seems to be only slightly ahead of the pack doesnt make much sense when we could take a player like Huff or Davis who are downright dominant at their position and have no close peers.

 

We can still grab a starting DT in the 2nd or 3rd round with this class.

[Mark VI]

I dont think ANYONE is advocating not taking a DT at all in this draft.  In fact, I'm willing to bet 99% of the board wants the Bills to draft a DT on Day One.

 

I think whats being said is that the DT pool is very deep this year, so reaching on a guy like Ngata who seems to be only slightly ahead of the pack doesnt make much sense when we could take a player like Huff or Davis who are downright dominant at their position and have no close peers.

 

We can still grab a starting DT in the 2nd or 3rd round with this class.

651182[/snapback]

 

Ding,ding,ding !

 

We have a winner !

[Rico]

We can still grab a starting DT in the 2nd or 3rd round with this class.

651182[/snapback]

IMO if you don't go DT in the 1st round, you'd better do so in the 2nd if you want to get a good one on day 1... everyone & his brother wants DT's, & they'll go off the board faster than the best comparable OL will. Don't know if you can find someone who can start this year over Tim Anderson in the 3rd.

[tennesseeboy]

You need a starting Defensive Tackle more than you need anything else. The best defensive tackle will be available at 8 (almost certainly). Pick the best defensive tackle. This isn't brain surgery.

[Bill from NYC]

You need a starting Defensive Tackle more than you need anything else.  The best defensive tackle will be available at 8 (almost certainly). Pick the best defensive tackle.  This isn't brain surgery.

651378[/snapback]

 

I don't know TB. Years ago, the Bills had a great defense, with the likes of Smith, Washington, Paup, Hansen, Speilaman, Cowart, and other very good players.

It wasn't enough, because at the same time, we had the likes of Spriggs, Ostroski, Fina, etc. who were unable to keep them off the field. In fact, the 04 version of Villarial was the only RG the Bills lined up in more than a decade that wasn't painfully bad, although sadly, CV too made this list in 05.

 

Please don't misunderstand....I see the need for help at DT just as clearly as do you, but the Bills need a ton of talent on the OL. Let's not shed a tear if they take a blocker in the first round, OK?

[stuckincincy]

... everyone & his brother wants DT's, & they'll go off the board faster than the best comparable OL will. Don't know if you can find someone who can start this year over Tim Anderson in the 3rd.

651371[/snapback]

 

The B'gals at pick #24, certainly need one, despite the Adams signing.

[tennesseeboy]

I don't know TB. Years ago, the Bills had a great defense, with the likes of Smith, Washington, Paup, Hansen, Speilaman, Cowart, and other very good players.

It wasn't enough, because at the same time, we had the likes of Spriggs, Ostroski, Fina, etc. who were unable to keep them off the field. In fact, the 04 version of Villarial was the only RG the Bills lined up in more than a decade that wasn't painfully bad, although sadly, CV too made this list in 05.

 

Please don't misunderstand....I see the need for help at DT just as clearly as do you, but the Bills need a ton of talent on the OL. Let's not shed a tear if they take a blocker in the first round, OK?   

651391[/snapback]

Unfortunately...you are right! The offensive line does need help and I like the idea of a trade down to get Winston Justice or another first rate offensive lineman and get an extra second or even third draft choice. In such a case we would be able to get a fair to middling second tier defensive tackle (Mahelona sounds like one who might fit into the so called "cover two" (or "let the other team run right into your fast but weak middle of the defensive line" defense. I think Ngata is the way to go, but wouldn't even complain too much if we drafted Davis at tight end at eight. I could see us getting Leonard Pope (a much better blocker and excellent, EXCELLENT pass receiver) in the second. Lots of good choices out there.

[Ozymandius]

You can argue that DT is our biggest need but I don't see why we necessarily need to address it in the first round. At some point, risk management has to come into play. In the past 15 years or so, top 10 DT busts include Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims, Gerard Warren, Darrell Russell, Dan Wilkinson, Steve Emtman, and Sean Gilbert. Ngata is just too big of a risk given the reasons I've outlined in this thread.

[dave mcbride]

To put it another way, name me ONE past player that fits Ngata's talents and body type that ended up dominating for the team that drafted him.  Ted Washington was drafted by SF but dominated for Buffalo.  Grady Jackson did most of his domination after he left Oakland and joined the Packers.  Who else?  Not Dan Wilkinson.

 

650505[/snapback]

 

you want stout guys with low centers of gravity who have performed at an all-nfl level for the teams that drafted them? here are some: warren sapp, cortez kennedy, tim bowens, jerry ball, shaun rogers, michael dean perry, joe klecko, chester mcglockton, and kris jenkins.

[dave mcbride]

You can argue that DT is our biggest need but I don't see why we necessarily need to address it in the first round.  At some point, risk management has to come into play.  In the past 15 years or so, top 10 DT busts include Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims, Gerard Warren, Darrell Russell, Dan Wilkinson, Steve Emtman, and Sean Gilbert.  Ngata is just too big of a risk given the reasons I've outlined in this thread.

651549[/snapback]

darrell russell was most definitely not a bust - in fact, he played in a couple of pro bowls early on. what he was was a criminal miscreant who eventually got caught. he was a helluva player though.

[dave mcbride]

You can argue that DT is our biggest need but I don't see why we necessarily need to address it in the first round.  At some point, risk management has to come into play.  In the past 15 years or so, top 10 DT busts include Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims, Gerard Warren, Darrell Russell, Dan Wilkinson, Steve Emtman, and Sean Gilbert.  Ngata is just too big of a risk given the reasons I've outlined in this thread.

651549[/snapback]

sean gilbert a bust?? he was all-world when he played for the rams, one of the 2 or 3 best dts in the league. steve emtman (a defensive end, not tackle, by the way) looked dominant in his rookie season before injury, by the way. guys who tear up both knees aren't busts -- they're guys whose careers who have been shortened by injury, which is entirely unpredictable and could literally happen to anyone. nothing more, nothing less.

[dave mcbride]

Unfortunately...you are right!  The offensive line does need help and I like the idea of a trade down to get Winston Justice or another first rate offensive lineman and get an extra second or even third draft choice.  In such a case we would be able to get a fair to middling second tier defensive tackle (Mahelona sounds like one who might fit into the so called "cover two"  (or "let the other team run right into your fast but weak middle of the defensive line" defense. I think Ngata is the way to go, but wouldn't even complain too much if we drafted Davis at tight end at eight.  I could see us getting Leonard Pope (a much better blocker and excellent, EXCELLENT pass receiver) in the second.  Lots of good choices out there.

651407[/snapback]

OT is not the problem with this team -- guard and especially center is. gandy is actually pretty decent and peters should turn out to be a star barring injury. DT is a much greater area of need.