Recycled Head Coach Analysis

[JDG]

I'm given this its own thread, but it is really inspired by SDS's post:

 

I doubt that is the case.  If a thorough analysis was done, I bet you will see that for the most part - losers are losers and every now and then someone starts slow and turns it on. BB is the exception.

 

It reminds me of the Winfield argument when everyone pointed to Darryl Green as justification for drafting a 5'6" CB.

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Unable to resist a suggestion for analysis, I decided to take a look at Recycled Head Coaches of the past decade or so. I've divided them into a number of groups.

 

Scott is definitely right to the extent that the group of coaches who have been consistently successful is a long one: Parcells, Jimmy Johnson (his years in Miami were a success by any normal measure), Schottenheimer (a success by objective standards), Holmgren, Dungy, Coughlin, Jim Mora vs. 1.0, Bobby Ross, and Dan Reeves (had a rough stint in New York with the Giants, that was maybe too short bsed on his success in Denver and Atlanta).

 

After this group, there is a small group of recycled coaches of short tenure that are a mixed bag of results - Wade Phillips and Ray Rhodes. Phillips and Rhodes fall into this group because neither their 1st stint nor their 2nd stint can readily be described as a clear success nor as a clear failure. I also include Dick Vermeil in this group, who couldn't really produce clear-cut success in the killer AFC West with the Chiefs, and who probably would have been an utter failure with the Rams had he not caught lightning in a bottle with Kurt Warner.

 

The third group is the complete and utter failures both times around. There's five of these: Norv Turner, Dennis Erickson, Lindy Infante, Bruce Coslet, and Joe Bugel.

 

The fourth group, however, the "Cinderella" success stories, is similarly small. I can find only four of these: Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan rose from mediocrity to sterling heights. Pete Caroll had a rough year and went on to success in New England, before being dumped once New England had a shot at Bill Belichick. And perhaps surprisingly, Dave Wannstedt, who actually had a solid run with the Dolphins. It is interesting that of these four, two had only very short stints in their first gig. Only Belichick and Wannstedt had extended stints of mediocrity before reaching success.

 

Finally, there are the successful coaches that went on to failure. There are some spectacular collapses in here: George Seifert, Mike Ditka, and Steve Mariucci. Other failures include Dennis Green (so far), Buddy Ryan, Rich Kotite (surprise!), and Dom Capers.

 

Not Rated: Ted Marchibroda, Tom Flores, Sam Wyche, perhaps a few others I'm missing (but all would fall into "failures" category if rated.)

 

So, what does all of this mean? Leaving completely aside the "unrateds" and "mixed bags", I've rated 16 "recycled coaches" as having had success in their first stint. Of these, 9 went on to further success, and 7 went on to failure. Toss in Marchibroda, Flores, and Wyche and that goes to 9-10. Meanwhile, I've rated only 9 recycled coaches as having failed in their first stint. Of these, 5 went on to further failure and four went on to further success. The data on this latter group, however, is definitely hampered by the fact that only Belichick and Wannstedt have recently gotten chances after a multiple-year stretch of mediocrity. Overall, however, I do not find strong historical evidence that in a comparison of two fired first-time head coaches that the one who had previous success is the one most likely to be successful in his second HC'ing stint. The evidence is that a first-time recycled successful HC is only a .500 proposition for future success, while there isn't much data on recycling a mediocre HC (but that data does sit at about .500 for what it is worth.)

 

I'll close with the raw data I used for this analaysis, including Jauron's and Sherman's numbers for reference:

 

Dick Jauron

Chicago - 5 Seasons, Avg 7 wins, 1 Playoff Berth with 13-3 year

 

Mike Sherman

Green Bay - 6 Seasons, Avg 9.5 wins, 3 Playoff Berths

 

 

First, those recycled Coaches who have been consistently successful:

 

Bill Parcells:

NY Giants - 8 Seasons, Avg 9.6 wins, 2 Super Bowl Wins, 3 Playoff Berths

New England - 4 Seasons, Avg 8 wins, Lost Super Bowl, 1 Playoff Berth

NY Jets - 3 Seasons, Avg 9.7 wins, 1 Final Four

Dallas - 3 Seasons, Avg 8.3 wins, 1 playoff berth

 

Jimmy Johnson:

Dallas - 5 seaons, Avg 8.8 wins, was 1-15 in first season, Avg is 10.75 otherwise, 2 Super Bowl wins and one other playoff berth

Miami - 4 seasons, Avg 9 wins, 3 playoff berths

 

Mike Holmgren

Green Bay - 7 Seasons, Avg 10.5 wins, 1-1 in 2 Super Bowls, 1 Final Four, 3 Playoffs, 6 Total Playoffs in 7 Seasons

Seattle - 6 Seasons, Avg 9 wins, 1 Super Bowl ?, 3 Playoff Berths

 

Marty Schottenheimer:

Cleveland - 4 Seaons, Avg 10 wins, 4 playoff berths, 2 Final 4s

Kansas City - 10 Seasons, Avg 10.1 wins, 1 Final Four and 6 Playoff berths

Washington - 1 Season, 8 wins

San Diego - 4 Seasons, Avg 8.25 wins, 1 Playoff Berth

 

Tony Dungy

Tampa - 6 Seasons, Avg 9 wins, 1 Final Four, 3 Playoff Berths

Indy - 4 Seaons, Avg 12 wins, 1 Final Four, 3 Playoff Berths

 

Tom Coughlin

Jax - 8 Seaons, Avg 8.5 wins, 2 Final Fours - including one 14 win seaons, 2 Playoff berths, finished with three straight sub-500 records

NY Giants - 2 Seasons, Avg 8.2 wins, 1 Playoff Berth

 

Jim Mora

New Orleans - 11 Seasons, Avg 8.5 wins, 4 playoff berths, finished 8-8, 7-9, 7-9, and 3-13

Indy - 4 Seaons, Avg 8 wins, 2 Playoff Berths

 

Bobby Ross

San Diego - 5 Seasons, Avg 9.4 wins, Lost Super Bowl, 2 Playoff Berths

Detroit - 4 Seasons, Avg 7.75 wins, 2 Playoff Berths

 

Dan Reeves:

Denver - 12 Seasons, Avg 9.5 wins, 3 Super Bowls, 1 Final Four, 2 Playoff Berths

NY Giants - 4 Seasons, Avg 7.75 wins, 1 Playoff Berth

Atlanta - 7 Seasons, Avg 7.3 wins, 2 winning seasons, 1 14-win season with Super Bowl berth, and one first-round playoff loss on a 9-6-1 year

 

 

Next comes a small second group of "mixed-bag" records:

 

Wade Phillips:

Denver - 2 Seaons, Avg 8 wins, 1 playoff berth at 9-7

Buffalo - 3 Seasons, Avg 9.7 wins, 2 playoff berths

 

Ray Rhodes

Ray Rhodes - 4 Seasons, Avg 7.25 wins, 2 playoff berths with 10 win seasons, finished with 6-10 and 3-13 years

Green Bay - 1 Season, 8 wins

 

Dick Vermeil

Philadelphia (ancient history) - 6 Seasons, Avg 8.5 wins, 1 Super Bowl Loss, 3 Playoff Berths

St. Louis - 3 Seasons, Avg 7.3 wins, 1 Super Bowl Win

KC - 5 Seaons, Avg 8.8 wins, 1 playoff berth with a 13-3 record

 

 

Third group are the complete failures:

 

Norv Turner

Washington - 7 Seasons, Avg 7.3 wins, 1 Playoff Berth

Oakland - 2 Seasons, Avg 4.5 wins

 

Dennis Erickson

Seattle - 4 Seasons, Avg 8 wins and 1 playoff berth (had the infamous Vinny Testaverde helmet play been called correctly)

San Francisco - 2 Seasons, Avg 4.5 wins

 

Lindy Infante

Green Bay - 4 Seasons, Avg 6 wins, Once 10 win season without playoff berth

Indy - 2 Seaons, Avg 6 wins, 9-7 and 3-13 with 1 playoff berth

 

Bruce Coslet:

NY Jets - 4 seasons, Avg 6.5 wins, 1 Playoff Berth with an 8-8 record

Cincinnati - 4 seasons, Avg 4.4 wins

 

Joe Bugel:

Arizona - 4 Seasons, Avg. 5 wins

Oakland - 1 Season, 4 wins

 

 

The fourth group are the success stories:

 

Bill Belichick:

Cleveland - First 4 seaons, Avg 7.75 wins, one 11 win season with playoff berth. Was 4-4 in 5th season when Modell announced Browns were moving

New England - 6 Seasons, Avg 10.5 2ins, 3 Super Bowl Wins and a playoff berth

 

Mike Shanahan:

Oakland - 2 Seasons, Avg 7.5 wins

Denver - 11 Seaons, Avg 10.4 wins, 2 Super Bowl Wins, 1 Final Four, 4 Playoff Berths, 7 total playoffs in 11 Seasons

 

Pete Caroll

NY Jets - 1 Season, 6 wins

New England - 3 Seasons, Avg 9 wins, 2 Playoff Berths

 

Dave Wannstedt:

Chicago - 6 Season, Avg 6.7 wins, two best years were 9-7, 1 playoff berth, fired after successive 4-12 years

Miami - 5 Seaons, Avg 9 wins, 2 playoff berths, a 9-win and 10-win season without playoff berths, followed by a 4-12 season in which he was fired

 

 

 

The fifth group are the success stories who went on to failures:

 

George Seifert:

San Francisco - 8 Seasons, Avg 12.25 wins, 2 Super Bowl Wins, 3 Final Fours, 2 Playoff Berths, and a Partridge in a Pear Tree (only playoff miss was a 10-6 season)

Carolina - 3 Seasons, Avg 5.3 wins, finished 1-15 with 15 straight losses

 

Mike Ditka:

Chicago - 11 Seasons, Avg 9.6 wins, won Super Bowl, 2 other Final 4's, 4 other playoff appearances, 7 total playoffs in 11 seasons

New Orleans - 3 Seasons, Avg 5 wins

 

Steve Mariucci

San Francisco - 6 Seasons, Avg 9.5 Wins, 1 Final Four, 3 Playoff Berths

Detroit - 3 Seasons, Avg 5.3 wins

 

Dennis Green:

Minnesota - 10 Seasons, Avg 9.7 wins, 2 Final Fours - including a 15-1 season, 6 playoff berths, total 8 playoff berths in 10 seasons

Arizona - 2 Seasons, Avg. 5.5 wins

 

Buddy Ryan:

Philadelphia - 5 Seasons, Avg 8.6 wins, 3 Playoff Berths

Arizona - 2 Seasons, Avg. 6 wins (8 and 4)

 

Rich Kotite

Philadelphia - 4 Seasons, Avg 9 wins, 1 Playoff Berth

NY Jets - 2 Seasons, Avg 2 Wins

 

Dom Capers:

Carolina - 4 Seaons, Avg 7.5 wins, 7-9 as expansion team, Final 4 appearance in second year of expansion, last two seaons were 7 and 4 wins, respectively

Houston - 4 Seasons, Avg 4.5 wins

 

JDG

[SDS]

One slight caveat I would put in there is some sort of figure of merit for their performance as a coordinator. Shanahan and Belichek were lights out coordinators and to me - that skews things a little.

 

Great write up though!

[JoeF]

That is some awesome work JDG.....DJ be a group four please..

[Lori]

That is some awesome work JDG.....DJ be a group four please..

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Ditto.. and amen to your second thought...

[Olaf Fub]

Excellent post. Thanks for you hard work.

[Campy]

Someone needs a hobby...

 

Just kiddin' - nice work on that. But Vermeil's success with the Eagles is "ancient history"? Dang man, I'm starting to feel old!

[JDG]

One slight caveat I would put in there is some sort of figure of merit for their performance as a coordinator. Shanahan and Belichek were lights out coordinators and to me - that skews things a little.

 

Great write up though!

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A very fair point. Although Wannstedt might be a really good coordinator - he certainly had a great run in Dallas, and his Miami defenses as a coordinator were pretty good too. But it certainly is worth pointing out that Jauron did not make a case for himself as a "standout coordinator" during the last two years in Detroit, during which the Lions' defense was sub-par. I think we can pretty comfortably say that he has not shown evidence of being a Belichick or Shanahan scale "genius." So, what else can be said from this?

 

This was an interesting analysis, especially since I didn't know how it would turn out once I started. For example, by pure numbers alone, Parcells isn't the most standout of the "Group 1" candidates until you realize *where* he did what he did - and certainly I had a new appreciation for Marty Schottenheimer's accomplishments. And it is amazing to remember that George Seifiert went from probably being a *lock* for Canton to probably no chance of getting in after three short seasons in Carolina.

 

Anyhow, I've tried to look for some other trends. Among "Group 1" Coaches, all of them, except Dan Reeves and with a very borderline case in Schottenheimer, were coming into "cupboard is bare"-type situations. Well, the pre-Holmgren Packers were at least excitingly mediocre - but no playoff berths to speak of - and Bill Parcells came in after the 1981 strike, the year before which the Giants had (barely) made their first playoff berth in aeons. Still, Johnson, Mora, Dungy, Ross, and Coughlin, however, were all true "saviours." So, that's a minimum of 5 out of 9, and arguably as many as 8 out of 9. In other words, if a first-time Head Coach turns around a flailing team, there is a vert strong indication that they might be really good.

 

Among "Group 5" coaches, 3 out of 7 were clear heirs to a previous "Golden Age" of the franchise - Seifert, Mariucci, and Kotite. Dennis Green also came into a franchise that was hardly "down on its luck", having just come off two mediocre years following three straight playoff appearances. Meanwhile, Mike Ditka came into a team that was comfortably mediocre. Only Dom Capers and Buddy Ryan were true "saviors" in this group - and some might quibble with my assessment of the pre-Ryan Eagles.

 

So, to twist the analysis around, at least 5 out of 7 and arguably as many as 8 out of 9 or 10 "savior" first-time head coaches went on to be really, really, good. 3 out of 3 first-time coaches who found success as inheritors to a "Golden Age" went on to become failures - which doesn't bode well for Mike Sherman's future success, as he is a clear "Golden Age" inheritor. Toss Reeves and Green into that mix, and it becomes 4 out of 5. Still pretty disheartening for Sherman's prospects.

 

So, what about the "Group 4" coaches? Belichick started off with a bad year, but then was trudging along in mediocrity, finally pulling an 11-5 with a playoff win in his fourth season. The next year, the rug was pulled out from under him with the move to Baltimore, and the city change almost demanded a head coaching change. Shanahan, meanwhile, got less than two years, remaining firmly mired in mediocrity for those two years, before the mercurial Al Davis dumped him. Pete Carroll only got a year, after which I believe that new ownership of the Jets forced him out. Finally, the most mysterious of the group is Dave Wannstedt. The best thing he had going for him were two 9-7 years, one of which produced a playoff win. He somehow went on to future success in Miami - but that may have been a product of inheriting the oustanding franchise of Don Shula and Jimmy Johnson. Still, that means 2, and arguably 3 of the four "Group 4" coaches were forced out of their positions due to external factors, management changes/conflicts.

 

As for Jauron, as I see the case for him, after two sub-mediocre years he pulled the "miracle" 13-3 year. As someone else pointed out - when Mularkey got a great schedule, the best he was able to do was 9-7... with arguably much more talent.... Jauron after all was coaching a team that blew high draft picks on Curtis Enis, Cade McNown and David Terrell In the middle of this, a new GM comes in who wants to hire his own guy, but politically is unable to do so after Jauron goes 13-3 with Jim Miller and Anthony Thomas. The next year, the Bears had to play all of their games in Champaign, and the wheels came off, producing Jauron's worst record as a HC. Once again, however, the new GM can't fire Jauron just one year removed from being Coach of the Year and coaching under such circumstances. The next year, Jauron starts turning the ship back around, but only gets up to 7-9, and the GM has the opening he needs to get rid of him and bring in Lovie Smith.

 

I'll admit that its not a *strong* case. His "resume capsule" I wrote up, and his average of 7 wins, for example, are most comparable in the below list to Dom Capers and Norv Turner. That's hardly inspiring. Take out the Champaign year, though, and his average wins rises to a much more respectable 7.75. Meanwhile I do feel, however, that there is at least a chance that he could be good in Buffalo (at least enough to put him into "Group 2" if not "Group 4") - and I believe that there is a higher chance of him being good in Buffalo than Mike Sherman, based on the analysis above. Moreover, I do think that he's the right "fit" for Marv Levy, and as long as we are stuck with Marv as GM (a decision I do not and did not endorse), I think that the Bills, as an organization, at least make the best of the situation by picking a HC who is a good fit for the GM team in place.

 

I just hope they make something of it.

 

JDG

Edited January 24, 2006 by JDG

[JDG]

Someone needs a hobby...

 

Just kiddin' - nice work on that.  But Vermeil's success with the Eagles is "ancient history"?  Dang man, I'm starting to feel old!

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Eh, actually apparently I have one..... ;-)

 

And its only ancient history in the NFL, where the game has evolved a lot since then.....

 

JDG

[MD BillsFan]

Eh, actually apparently I have one..... ;-)

 

And its only ancient history in the NFL, where the game has evolved a lot since then.....

 

JDG

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Nice job, JDG, but though it's "ancient history" your list ignores the most successful coach in Bills history, and a hall of famer, who was a complete failure in his first head coaching gig in Kansas City - Marv Levy. The Bills were a laughing stock then for selecting an obvious failure as their head coach. I am not suggesting that DJ will achieve the same results - the situations are different in many ways - but any list of recycled coaches who achieve success the second time around certainly should have Levy at its head.

[Kultarr]

There is another way to look at some of this data. Some of these coaches might be considered solid "caretaker" head coaches. If the team is already stocked with some talent, then those sort of coaches can maintain the legacy and keep the old Buick running. Seifert is certainly the standard bearer of this type of coach. I think Wannstedt probably goes there as well as Barry Switzer. Mariucci seems to go in that group. Wade Phillips might belong in that group -- he followed two hall of fame coaches with not bad results. The point is that this may be the right class to put Sherman in.

 

There are other coaches that are good "bootstrap" coaches. Guys that come into organizations that are a disaster zone and breath life into the team. Tony Dungy did that in Tampa. Jim Mora did it in New Orleans and Indianapolis. Bill Parcells has done it with 4 different teams. Jimmy Johnson did it in Dallas and, because of cap issues, rebuilt the Dolphins. Marv Levy did it in Buffalo.

 

Quite frankly, the Bills are in a bad way right now. What they desperately need is leadership and teamwork -- everyone pulling on the oars in the same direction. The fact that some people see Dick Jauron as a "Levy, Mora, Dungy" sort of high-character, no-nonsense, team-first coach is a good thing. Let's hope that it is all true. The Bills positively need a coach that can bootstrap things and turn the ship around.

 

One thing that will be different in Buffalo than his stint in Chicago, I hope, is that Jauron will get the full support of the rest of the Bills brain trust rather than having a GM actively working against him.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I also commend you on some great and detailed work. I plan to come back to it when I have a bit more time (my lovely wife has let me know I exhausted my TSW time on my own too lengthy work, but she is downstairs watching Friends which gives me a little time to play).

 

My initial reaction is that one thing from them that will readjust some of my thinking likely is that some coaches I considered losers in their second time aroud were actually better statistically than I gave them credit for.

 

Jimmy Johnson is a good example as if one asked me off hand I would declare his Miami stint a disaster. However, looking at the #s you collected, he actually had some success. It probably felt like a disaster because I allowed my standards for success to be set incredibly high for him due to his success in Dallas.

 

This being said, I think I and we would profit from some definition of success by you.

 

I will stick with what I have said up until now that I define a successful NFL season as one where a team makes it to the Final Four. Getting a winning record as MM HC'ed the Bills too last year was pretty good, but I would not call last year a successful season.

 

Making the playoffs at all is also pretty good, but enough .500 or near .500 teams slime in there and with Pitts winning this year for the first time a #6 seed made it this far. In addition, I don't think anyone connected with Indy considers this a successful season for them so I am pretty confortable giving appropriate kudos for making the playoffs but for me success means going deep in the playoffs and making the Final Four seems to be a good standard. I'll take a look at this but if you have a sense off hand from working with these numbers what effect it would have on the population of your categories I'd be curious.

[Pass the Pipe]

Great stuff. They should hire you with this kind of attention to detail. There are some interesting patterns in your data.

[Ozymandius]

Thanks for the research and post, JDG. Much appreciated.

[Fan in San Diego]

There is another way to look at some of this data.  Some of these coaches might be considered solid "caretaker" head coaches.  If the team is already stocked with some talent, then those sort of coaches can maintain the legacy and keep the old Buick running.  Seifert is certainly the standard bearer of this type of coach.  I think Wannstedt probably goes there as well as Barry Switzer.  Mariucci seems to go in that group.  Wade Phillips might belong in that group -- he followed two hall of fame coaches with not bad results.  The point is that this may be the right class to put Sherman in.

 

There are other coaches that are good "bootstrap" coaches.  Guys that come into organizations that are a disaster zone and breath life into the team.  Tony Dungy did that in Tampa.  Jim Mora did it in New Orleans and Indianapolis.  Bill Parcells has done it with 4 different teams.  Jimmy Johnson did it in Dallas and, because of cap issues, rebuilt the Dolphins.  Marv Levy did it in Buffalo.

 

Quite frankly, the Bills are in a bad way right now.  What they desperately need is leadership and teamwork -- everyone pulling on the oars in the same direction.  The fact that some people see Dick Jauron as a "Levy, Mora, Dungy" sort of high-character, no-nonsense, team-first coach is a good thing.  Let's hope that it is all true.  The Bills positively need a coach that can bootstrap things and turn the ship around.

 

One thing that will be different in Buffalo than his stint in Chicago, I hope, is that Jauron will get the full support of the rest of the Bills brain trust rather than having a GM actively working against him.

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Ding Ding we have a winner !

[JDG]

I also commend you on some great and detailed work. I plan to come back to it when I have a bit more time (my lovely wife has let me know I exhausted my TSW time on my own too lengthy work, but she is downstairs watching Friends which gives me a little time to play).

 

My initial reaction is that one thing from them that will readjust some of my thinking likely is that some coaches I considered losers in their second time aroud were actually better statistically than I gave them credit for.

 

Jimmy Johnson is a good example as if one asked me off hand I would declare his Miami stint a disaster.  However, looking at the #s you collected, he actually had some success.  It probably felt like a disaster because I allowed my standards for success to be set incredibly high for him due to his success in Dallas.

 

For sure, though in fairness, JJ set those own expectations for himself. Dave Wannstedt is another one, who off hand we would probably consider a failure in Miami, but in reality had a very strong overall record. Both JJ and Wannstedt's perceptions are probably affected by their perceived tendency for late-season collapses, which of course does not come out in this data.

 

This being said, I think I and we would profit from some definition of success by you.

 

I will stick with what I have said up until now that I define a successful NFL season as one where a team makes it to the Final Four.  Getting a winning record as MM HC'ed the Bills too last year was pretty good, but I would not call last year a successful season.

 

Making the playoffs at all is also pretty good, but enough .500 or near .500 teams slime in there and with Pitts winning this year for the first time a #6 seed made it this far.  In addition, I don't think anyone connected with Indy considers this a successful season for them so I am pretty confortable giving appropriate kudos for making the playoffs but for me success means going deep in the playoffs and making the Final Four seems to be a good standard. I'll take a look at this but if you have a sense off hand from working with these numbers what effect it would have on the population of your categories I'd be curious.

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I actully was curious as to what definition of "success" I would use, and was a bit surprised to see that success darn near defined itself. Leaving aside my "Group 2", a successful coaching stint was generally an average of 8, and usually 9, or more wins with playoff berth in 50% of seasons. Unsuccessful coaching stints involved less than 8, often much less than 8, average wins, with only one playoff berth, if any. There were very few borderline cases.

 

I have to disagree with your proposal that a Final Four appearance is required for a successful season. For one, that sets the bar for success too high - only 4 out of 32 teams. And it would completely skew the data, turning Bill Parcells into a near-failure in Dallas, and making others harder to judge. Moreover, I don't think that corresponds to reality - yes Indy fans are hungry for a Super Bowl - but how many fans of other teams wouldn't get on their knees and beg for a run like Indy's current one? Finally, I think it fails to control for strength of competition compared to other measures. For example, if you get to 10 wins and miss out on the playoffs because its a very tough year, I'm not going to hold that against you. (But in the converse, if you do make the playoffs with a weak record, I do count that in your favor, because just playing in the postseason tournament can take the sting off of a lot of other shortcomings.) So, while there is no doubt some disappointment in Indy, I think that overtime they will appreciate being the first team to clinch the #1 seed undefeated since 1972 (I think) and recognize that they still had a great run. Four months of ecstasy, followed by one month of disappointment is still superior to the four months of disappointment that Bills, Lions, and Cardinals fans are suffering through. Indy is just the victim of an extraordinarily unbalanced League, one in which 6 (Colts, Pats, Steelers, Broncos, Bengals, Chargers) of the Top 6-8 teams (Seahwaks and Panthers) were all in the AFC. If the Colts were in the NFC, they would have cruised to the Final Four - ditto if the Colts were playing in the early 90's AFC our Bills played in. So, I keep that in perspective.

 

JDG

[JDG]

Great stuff. They should hire you with this kind of attention to detail. There are some interesting patterns in your data.

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Thanks. Its a shame that Leo Roth didn't hire me to do this before writing his column this morning, such as when he wrote:

"History shows that head coaches given a second chance generally do better their second time around. "

 

Actually, history shows no such thing.

 

JDG

[JDG]

Nice job, JDG, but though it's "ancient history" your list ignores the most successful coach in Bills history, and a hall of famer, who was a complete failure in his first head coaching gig in Kansas City - Marv Levy.  The Bills were a laughing stock then for selecting an obvious failure as their head coach.  I am not suggesting that DJ will achieve the same results - the situations are different in many ways - but any list of recycled coaches who achieve success the second time around certainly should have Levy at its head.

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True. But I started off my analysis by only including "recycled head coaches" who were hired for the second time in the modern era of the 12-team playoffs for consistency. And going further, I decided that I really needed to exclude those "recycled head coaches" whose first stint occurred back in the 1970's, also in order to preserve the fairness of the comparison. Thus, while the list does exclude Levy, it also excludes Jack Pardee, so I hope that it more-or-less balances out.

 

JDG

[dave mcbride]

great work, jdg.

[SDS]

True.  But I started off my analysis by only including "recycled head coaches" who were hired for the second time in the modern  era of the 12-team playoffs for consistency.  And going further, I decided that I really needed to exclude those "recycled head coaches" whose first stint occurred back in the 1970's, also in order to preserve the fairness of the comparison.  Thus, while the list does exclude Levy, it also excludes Jack Pardee, so I hope that it more-or-less balances out.

 

JDG

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one may also want to take into account season "1" for each new hire. There is something to be said for a team that needs a new coach and may be in a bit of disarray when the new guy comes in.

[Nervous Guy]

One slight caveat I would put in there is some sort of figure of merit for their performance as a coordinator. Shanahan and Belichek were lights out coordinators and to me - that skews things a little.

 

Great write up though!

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So I was right after all!!

 

Thanks JDG! You da man!