Screw the Run

[Mickey]

I for one am more than tired of the "smash mouth football" philosophy that is so worshipped hereabouts as a self evident truth when it comes to winning football games.

 

Scoring points wins games. The Bills of the '90's weren't worried about how many times they ran or threw or what the time of possession stat was, they did whatever they had to do to score points.

 

Fast forward to this team and with guys like Moulds and Evans and a young QB who can extend plays, pass plays anyway, we spend the entire year trying to inch the ball forward by running predictably often and despite the fact of having a crappy line. Shock of shocks, our offense accordingly sucks.

 

Forget the smash mouth machismo crap. Rushing TDs: 6, Passing TDs: 16. I know it is absolute heresy around here but it looks to me like maybe the problem isn't that we didn't run enough but that we didn't throw enough.

 

If you take a QB with the raw skills of a young Brett Favre and then demand that he play an offense designed for Trent Dilfer, don't be surprised when your stud ends up being Trent Dilfer.

[Fezmid]

Losman is getting sacked every 10 times he drops back.... And that's with the defense thinking we might run from time to time. Imagine how bad it'd be if they could pin their ears back and go for the sack on EVERY play.

 

CW

[Adam]

Actually- those 1990's teams led the league in rushing....ooops

[Kelly the Dog]

The Bills have not been a running team in over 5 years whatsoever. Last year, they came out passing in virtually every single game, especially once Willis came in. This year is no different. We never, ever run and run and run again to establish it. Mularkey has never had a smashmouth philosophy. TD came out three years ago after dumping Larry Centers for Sam Gash, JR for Mark Campbell, and said we're going to be a smashmouth running team. And then Killdrive immediately started throwing and throwing.

[Adam]

Smashmouth football is good football. Trent Dilfer also is a very good quarterback- didn't do too bad in Baltimore....and don't give me the BS about their defense- he's not the only QB to play there that year

[Mickey]

Losman is getting sacked every 10 times he drops back....  And that's with the defense thinking we might run from time to time.  Imagine how bad it'd be if they could pin their ears back and go for the sack on EVERY play.

 

CW

545626[/snapback]

Despite that, the only offense we have generated has been in the air. If McGahee makes a play to avoid getting tackled in the backfield, he turns a 2 yard loss into a 3 yard gain. If JP avoids the rush, he can turn a 10 yard loss into a TD. You have to play with the team you have, not the team you wish you had. Downfield is the only place to go for a team that can't do anything else.

 

Ever think that the reason he gets sacked so much, even though we run a lot, is because we only throw when, predictably, we have to? If you always wait until 3rd and 12 to throw, no surprise you get sacked. The fact that we "might run" was no threat because we weren't running on 3rd and long. All those runs were on 1st and 2nd down and it was predictable as hell, thus that much easier to stop.

 

The Bills of the '90's had about 6 basic plays they ran to death and yet they were far more unpredictable than this team.

[Mickey]

Smashmouth football is good football. Trent Dilfer also is a very good quarterback- didn't do too bad in Baltimore....and don't give me the BS about their defense- he's not the only QB to play there that year

545636[/snapback]

So is offensive football. For every Trent Dilfer, I can name for you several Joe Montana's, Steve Young's, Joe Namath's, Brett Favre's, Johnny Unitas', Sonny Jurgensen's and plenty more where they came from. But yeah, there once was a Trent Dilfer who won a SB. Lets spend a lifetime trying to prove that you can win a SB with mediocre QB.

 

It is all about being unpredictable, defense goes pass, you run. Defense goes run, you pass. They double the wideouts, you send 'em deep and hit the TE underneath. They play zone, you flood the zone. Rare is the offense so good it can announce what it is going to do, ie, run, run and run somemore, and still be successful. Defenses are just not that bad, not at this level. Sure there are some that are that bad, ours for instance. Most however are going to stop you if they have a good idea what you are going to do.

 

Besides, you play with the team you have, not the fantasy team in your head you wish you had. We don't have a powerful, overpowering offensive line. We didn't use our draft picks on those guys. We used them on Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed. If all you are going to do is inch the ball forward and punt, all you need is a guy like Moorman which we have, and a Trent Dilfer, plenty of those around. You could have saved all those other picks and used them on some blockers.

 

In the end, we have been playing this "smash mouth football" song for how many years now? Where has it taken us? Loserville. Yet we stick to that cliche like someone crazy glued our asses to it.

 

Throw the damn thing, we could hardly do any worse.

[Adam]

 

Besides, you play with the team you have, not the fantasy team in your head you wish you had.  We don't have a powerful, overpowering offensive line.  We didn't use our draft picks on those guys.  We used them on Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed.  If all you are going to do is inch the ball forward and punt, all you need is a guy like Moorman which we have, and a Trent Dilfer, plenty of those around.  You could have saved all those other picks and used them on some blockers.

 

In the end, we have been playing this "smash mouth football" song for how many years now?  Where has it taken us?  Loserville.  Yet we stick to that cliche like someone crazy glued our asses to it.

 

Throw the damn thing, we could hardly do any worse.

545648[/snapback]

You make some valid points- but one that is not valid is that there are a lot of Trent Dilfers out there- ESPN likes to call the skill "Managing the game", and they make that out to be easy. Like most of the things ESPN says- thats ridiculous- its one of the most difficult skills for any QB to master.

[MDH]

In the end, we have been playing this "smash mouth football" song for how many years now?

545648[/snapback]

 

Zero.

[tennesseeboy]

This all begs the real "smash mouth" football idea. Smash mouth football is the existence of a very effective trench game on defense and offense. Kelly had time to pass (he also had Thurman running, by the way). McGahee may not be a good runner and Losman may not be a good passer, but we'll never know until we have a quality offensive line. We won't have a good pass defense until we have a good run defense. Its all about the trenches...passing game or running game. The plain fact is that the running game eats the clock. With the offense on the field, it doesn't matter if you have Jim Brown, Gale Sayers, Otto Graham, Joe Namath or Peyton Manning on the sidelines. They aren't doing anything on the sidelines. See our first Superbowl experience for the Parcells/Belichick lecture on clock control through the running game.

[Mickey]

Zero.

545653[/snapback]

Umm...the fans have sung that song without interruption.

 

I do agree however that the team has not been able to play that kind of football, not for lack of trying though. They just suck at it which is kind of my point.

[MDH]

Umm...the fans have sung that song without interruption.

 

I do agree however that the team has not been able to play that kind of football, not for lack of trying though.  They just suck at it which is kind of my point.

545662[/snapback]

 

 

Smash mouth football means commitment to the run. If you call 8 and 12 rushes in games "commitment" then I guess we run a smash mouth offense. The Bills have ran the ball 398 times this year, good for 21st in the league. Compare that to real smash mouth teams like the Steelers and Broncos which have each run the ball over 500 times.

[MDH]

Also, let's take a look at the top 15 teams in the league in rushing attempts this year.

 

1. Falcons

2. Steelers

3. Broncos

4. Cowboys

5. Seahawks

6. Redskins

7. Chiefs

8. Jags

9. Bears

10. Colts

11. Panthers

12. Chargers

13. Bengals

14. Giants

15. Bucs

 

 

11 of those 15 teams are going to make the playoffs. That leaves only ONE team not in the top 15 in rushing attempts in the playoffs (the Pats).

 

 

Let’s look at the leaders in passing attempts

 

1. Cardinals

2. Packers

3. Eagles

4. Rams

5. Titans

6. Raiders

7. Patriots

8. Giants

9. Ravens

10. Dolphins

11. Saints

12. Bengals

13. Chargers

14. Lions

15. Colts

 

Only 4 teams are in the playoffs that are in the top half of the league in passing attempts (and 3 of those are in the top half of the league in rushing attempts)

 

Yeah, screw the run!

[Mickey]

This all begs the real "smash mouth" football idea.  Smash mouth football is the existence of a very effective trench game on defense and offense.  Kelly had time to pass (he also had Thurman running, by the way).  McGahee may not be a good runner and Losman may not be a good passer, but we'll never know until we have a quality offensive line.  We won't have a good pass defense until we have a good run defense.  Its all about the trenches...passing game or running game.  The plain fact is that the running game eats the clock.  With the offense on the field, it doesn't matter if you have Jim Brown, Gale Sayers, Otto Graham, Joe Namath or Peyton Manning on the sidelines.  They aren't doing anything on the sidelines.  See our first Superbowl experience for the Parcells/Belichick lecture on clock control through the running game.

545659[/snapback]

A good offense doesn't need time to score. How many games have we lost this year to offenses that were able to score on their last possession? Miami for instance. I think TOP is one of the most overhyped stats in the book. One turnover giving your team an extra possession is enough to swing that. Besides, it really is kind of self fulfilling. If you don't get first downs, your TOP sucks whether you went three an out running or throwing.

 

I agree that no offensive scheme is bound to succeed without decent play in the trenches. However, we don't have that and that was pretty obvious last year, in camp this year and in the first 3 games this year. From that point, you have to adjust to what you have. What we have is a QB with a rifle, quick feet but not much sense. What we have is blinding speed and great hands at one wideout and a pro-bowler at the other given to making circus catches in tight coverage able to outleap most DB's.

[Kelly the Dog]

Umm...the fans have sung that song without interruption.

 

I do agree however that the team has not been able to play that kind of football, not for lack of trying though.  They just suck at it which is kind of my point.

545662[/snapback]

I think it is a combination of total lack of trying to establish an identity of a running team, as in the game planning and play calling, as well as the injuries and therefore lack of production of the best run blockers, mostly Mike Williams.

[Mickey]

Also, let's take a look at the top 15 teams in the league in rushing attempts this year.

 

1. Falcons

2. Steelers

3. Broncos

4. Cowboys

5. Seahawks

6. Redskins

7. Chiefs

8. Jags

9. Bears

10. Colts

11. Panthers

12. Chargers

13. Bengals

14. Giants

15. Bucs

11 of those 15 teams are going to make the playoffs.  That leaves only ONE team not in the top 15 in rushing attempts in the playoffs (the Pats).

Let’s look at the leaders in passing attempts

 

1. Cardinals

2. Packers

3. Eagles

4. Rams

5. Titans

6. Raiders

7. Patriots

8. Giants

9. Ravens

10. Dolphins

11. Saints

12. Bengals

13. Chargers

14. Lions

15. Colts

 

Only 4 teams are in the playoffs that are in the top half of the league in passing attempts (and 3 of those are in the top half of the league in rushing attempts)

 

Yeah, screw the run!

545669[/snapback]

Cart before the horse. You score points, you get a lead, you run clock by running thus your stats are weighted to the run. You don't score points, you get behind, you have to throw because you need to make up ground in a hurry.

 

The Pats, Colts and Bengals are third, fourth and fifth in the league in passing and all are division winners. The Niners, Texans and Bills are the worst, third worst and fourth worst passing teams in the NFL, where are they headed? The Colts are 15th in rushing offense. It isn't as simple as measuring attempts.

 

Running the ball (=attempts) isn't the same as gaining yards (=points, wins). Running and running the ball effectively is not the same thing. I know, a radical concept but try to get your hands around it.

[Mickey]

I think it is a combination of total lack of trying to establish an identity of a running team, as in the game planning and play calling, as well as the injuries and therefore lack of production of the best run blockers, mostly Mike Williams.

545673[/snapback]

I was just looking at the Tampa game and the stats. We went three and out the first three series. We ran on first each time gaining a total of 9 yards and a holding penalty. Thats three plays out of nine netting -1 yard. That meant we had second and long every time, a great recipe for a team yearning to go three an out as often as possible.

 

I think MM loves to run and would run to death if we could do so effectively. If you look at the games where we did run well, he ran Willis to death. However, when it was clear by the end of the 1stQ that our line wasn't going to hold up, he did the only thing you can do, mix it up and hope for the best.

[MDH]

Cart before the horse.  You score points, you get a lead, you run clock by running thus your stats are weighted to the run.  You don't score points, you get behind, you have to throw because you need to make up ground in a hurry.

 

The Pats, Colts and Bengals are third, fourth and fifth in the league in passing and all are division winners.  The Niners, Texans and Bills are the worst, third worst and fourth worst passing teams in the NFL, where are they headed?  The Colts are 15th in rushing offense.  It isn't as simple as measuring attempts.

 

Running the ball (=attempts) isn't the same as gaining yards (=points, wins).  Running and running the ball effectively is not the same thing.  I know, a radical concept but try to get your hands around it.

545681[/snapback]

 

I love the idea that people have that teams throw the ball to get ahead and then run the ball with the lead, as if teams suddenly go into a shell with a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter. Games in the NFL are generally close and teams that rack up lots of rushing attemps don't do so by simply trying to control the clock once they have a lead. They do so because they show a commitment to the run both early and late.

[Mickey]

I love the idea that people have that teams throw the ball to get ahead and then run the ball with the lead, as if teams suddenly go into a shell with a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter.  Games in the NFL are generally close and teams that rack up lots of rushing attemps don't do so by simply trying to control the clock once they have a lead.  They do so because they show a commitment to the run both early and late.

545700[/snapback]

Right, because all you need for successful running is to run a lot. Actually gaining yards and getting first downs isn't meaningful, its just attempts. Willis would have a lot more runs if we had more first downs, hence more plays, hence more opportunities to run.

 

I was not suggesting that teams sit on 7 point leads at all. Fact is though, teams with a big enough lead, especially in the 4thQ, start to run more.

 

For example: Wk 4, SD beats NE 41-14, runs the ball 25 times in the second half, 17 times in the fourth quarter alone.

[Kelly the Dog]

I was just looking at the Tampa game and the stats.  We went three and out the first three series.  We ran on first each time gaining a total of 9 yards and a holding penalty.  Thats three plays out of nine netting -1 yard.  That meant we had second and long every time, a great recipe for a team yearning to go three an out as often as possible.

 

I think MM loves to run and would run to death if we could do so effectively.  If you look at the games where we did run well, he ran Willis to death.  However, when it was clear by the end of the 1stQ that our line wasn't going to hold up, he did the only thing you can do, mix it up and hope for the best.

545690[/snapback]

I just think that's a terrible example, Mick. Establishing a run does not mean throwing on 2nd down and 3rd down three straight series. Establishing the run means running on 2nd and 7 or 8 or 9, and then mixing it up with play-action. The example you gave is a better example of totally giving up on the run immediately, which is my complaint.