The Frankish Reich Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago Not from anyone's social media feed. Not from MSNBC or Fox. From people who actually know what they're talking about. 1. Sean Trende. Writes for Real Clear Politics (somewhat right-leaning overall). No greater wisdom has been spoken about American politics than his guiding principle that coalitions in American politics are constantly shifting and rarely survive long-term. And here he sees that happening: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/11/06/a_bad_night_for_republicans_with_no_bright_spots_153494.html Americans don’t do mandates. Donald Trump’s claim to a sweeping mandate was always dubious. He won by a little less than two points and failed to clear 50% of the vote. But I’ve always been fond of political scientist E.E. Schattschneider’s view of things: “The people are a sovereign whose vocabulary is limited to ‘yes’ or ‘no.’” We read all sorts of things into election results because it’s our job. But “the people” only say “I prefer this candidate” or “I like that one.” They don’t really get to explain why, nor in most elections do they get to rank preferences. 2. G. Elliott Morris is a data journalist, previously with the Economist. He is one of the best at digging into the numbers. And he sees the same thing: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-winning-2024-coalition-has Morris points out that the "new Trump coalition" of working class whites, country club Republicans, and an increasing share of blacks and Hispanics has fallen apart. Again, coalitions are unstable, and this weird "coalition" (if you can even call it that) featured groups that just don't have a lot in common. It is clear now that claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated. The 2024 election is best seen as an anti-incumbent election stemming from economic anxiety, most but not entirely driven by rising inflation during Joe Biden’s presidency. The elections held this week were a continuation of the anti-incumbent sentiment from last year — this time directed toward the new party in charge. The biggest difference between 2024 and 2025 is that Republicans are running the country now, instead of the Democrats. But for the realignment theorists, it’s actually worse than it looks. From 2024 to 2025 Republicans lost the most support — 25 points, on average — among the very voters they theorized would remake the GOP into a vast, multi-racial, working-class coalition. Today’s Chart of The Week looks at subgroup vote choice in 2025. The data suggests Trump’s winning coalition has all but evaporated — if it ever existed at all. Let’s start with the voters who were supposed to cement the GOP’s new coalition: non‑white, working‑class/lower-income, and young Americans. From 2020 to 2024, these three groups moved an average of 12 points toward Trump at the presidential level (on vote margin), according to Pew. In 2025, the same groups snapped back to the left — this time by 25 points on average. In fact, in Virginia’s exit poll (actually “The Voter Poll” by SSRS, but I’m going to call it an “exit poll” colloquially), Republican margins fell across every single subgroup except older voters (this could be due to noise in the exit poll samples). This is exactly what you’d expect from an anti‑incumbent election driven by economic anxiety and frustration at anti-democratic and far-right policy outcomes — and after a supposedly durable ideological realignment immediately falls apart. 3. (From Trende and Morris) Policy emphasis and the beginnings of a new Democratic coalition. The message of Spanberger and Sherrill AND of Mamdani was an economic one. Class politics, not identity politics. "Affordability" is the mantra, and this makes it more difficult to play the "she is for they/them" card for Republicans. Again, shifting coalitions.
Orlando Buffalo Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago Every election was in a state that was razor thin or blue on 2024 and the Dems were much more energized. This election is not a bellwether in anyway but if the 2026 midterms look similar I will be concerned.
SCBills Posted 2 hours ago Posted 2 hours ago Demographics are destiny. If the GOP loses some temporary Latino support due to ICE raids/immigration policy, so be it. They lose either way. The left has shown that migration is THE existential threat to conservatism. Import a government dependent population and they will vote for you in perpetuity. What Latino’s will also vote on is the economy. So fix the economy and you offset some of the above losses. The shutdown, which Dems are gloating over being the reason for now, also hurt the GOP.. especially in VA. In other states, while they’re are trends to examine, the GOP is a low propensity coalition and typically have, and will likely continue to, get rolled in off year elections. 1
TH3 Posted 1 hour ago Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, SCBills said: Demographics are destiny. If the GOP loses some temporary Latino support due to ICE raids/immigration policy, so be it. They lose either way. The left has shown that migration is THE existential threat to conservatism. Import a government dependent population and they will vote for you in perpetuity. What Latino’s will also vote on is the economy. So fix the economy and you offset some of the above losses. The shutdown, which Dems are gloating over being the reason for now, also hurt the GOP.. especially in VA. In other states, while they’re are trends to examine, the GOP is a low propensity coalition and typically have, and will likely continue to, get rolled in off year elections. What does maga do that’s conservative exactly? Is it the Blown up deficit spending or the DT administration inserting itself anywhere and everywhere? Tariffs😝😝😝? Venezuela 😀😀😀? Gerrymandering midterm?👍👍
TH3 Posted 1 hour ago Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Not from anyone's social media feed. Not from MSNBC or Fox. From people who actually know what they're talking about. 1. Sean Trende. Writes for Real Clear Politics (somewhat right-leaning overall). No greater wisdom has been spoken about American politics than his guiding principle that coalitions in American politics are constantly shifting and rarely survive long-term. And here he sees that happening: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/11/06/a_bad_night_for_republicans_with_no_bright_spots_153494.html Americans don’t do mandates. Donald Trump’s claim to a sweeping mandate was always dubious. He won by a little less than two points and failed to clear 50% of the vote. But I’ve always been fond of political scientist E.E. Schattschneider’s view of things: “The people are a sovereign whose vocabulary is limited to ‘yes’ or ‘no.’” We read all sorts of things into election results because it’s our job. But “the people” only say “I prefer this candidate” or “I like that one.” They don’t really get to explain why, nor in most elections do they get to rank preferences. 2. G. Elliott Morris is a data journalist, previously with the Economist. He is one of the best at digging into the numbers. And he sees the same thing: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-winning-2024-coalition-has Morris points out that the "new Trump coalition" of working class whites, country club Republicans, and an increasing share of blacks and Hispanics has fallen apart. Again, coalitions are unstable, and this weird "coalition" (if you can even call it that) featured groups that just don't have a lot in common. It is clear now that claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated. The 2024 election is best seen as an anti-incumbent election stemming from economic anxiety, most but not entirely driven by rising inflation during Joe Biden’s presidency. The elections held this week were a continuation of the anti-incumbent sentiment from last year — this time directed toward the new party in charge. The biggest difference between 2024 and 2025 is that Republicans are running the country now, instead of the Democrats. But for the realignment theorists, it’s actually worse than it looks. From 2024 to 2025 Republicans lost the most support — 25 points, on average — among the very voters they theorized would remake the GOP into a vast, multi-racial, working-class coalition. Today’s Chart of The Week looks at subgroup vote choice in 2025. The data suggests Trump’s winning coalition has all but evaporated — if it ever existed at all. Let’s start with the voters who were supposed to cement the GOP’s new coalition: non‑white, working‑class/lower-income, and young Americans. From 2020 to 2024, these three groups moved an average of 12 points toward Trump at the presidential level (on vote margin), according to Pew. In 2025, the same groups snapped back to the left — this time by 25 points on average. In fact, in Virginia’s exit poll (actually “The Voter Poll” by SSRS, but I’m going to call it an “exit poll” colloquially), Republican margins fell across every single subgroup except older voters (this could be due to noise in the exit poll samples). This is exactly what you’d expect from an anti‑incumbent election driven by economic anxiety and frustration at anti-democratic and far-right policy outcomes — and after a supposedly durable ideological realignment immediately falls apart. 3. (From Trende and Morris) Policy emphasis and the beginnings of a new Democratic coalition. The message of Spanberger and Sherrill AND of Mamdani was an economic one. Class politics, not identity politics. "Affordability" is the mantra, and this makes it more difficult to play the "she is for they/them" card for Republicans. Again, shifting coalitions. The advent of Trump being a liability has started …maga has nothing to run on that’s really appealing …earliest lame duck…ever….
The Frankish Reich Posted 39 minutes ago Author Posted 39 minutes ago 19 minutes ago, TH3 said: The advent of Trump being a liability has started …maga has nothing to run on that’s really appealing …earliest lame duck…ever…. Definitely part of it. We saw what became of the Democratic Party nationally when it could no longer rely on the cult of personality around Obama. Same with the Republicans and Trump.
SCBills Posted 32 minutes ago Posted 32 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Definitely part of it. We saw what became of the Democratic Party nationally when it could no longer rely on the cult of personality around Obama. Same with the Republicans and Trump. JD Vance is likely the next nominee, with Rubio as VP. He needs this Administration to get its act together on the economy, but JD is a pretty strong successor to the absolutely whirlwind of Trump that’s dominated politics for 12 years. In the midterms though.. it really comes down to the economy. R’s still have a favorable map to retain the Senate and potentially hold the House, but Dems f***ing vote. No matter who, no matter when, they vote. And Republicans need to figure out how to mobilize their low propensity scattered base of white working class, married women, MAHA, conservative Latinos etc., to get to the polls when Trump isn’t on the ballot. While I think Newsom is incredibly talented as an Patrick Bateman-esque politician.. I don’t know that he can win in GA/NC/PA/MI etc .. and it doesn’t seem like Shapiro can get out of a Dem Primary.. after those two, the candidate quality drops quite a bit.
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