This might be why Bills fan's are concerned despite the Bills 5-2 record. There will be math.

[Richard Noggin]

11 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

The Chiefs are playing a tougher schedule though. The worst team they've lost to is the 4-3 Jaguars. Their other losses are to the 6-2 Eagles and the 5-3 Chargers in the 1st 2 Weeks. And they defeated the Lions. The only team we've played with a winning record is the Patriots.

 

Totally get the disparity in quality of wins and losses. Can be indicative of future performances. Even the Bills wins, minus Panthers and Jets, were competitive, frustrating affairs for much of those games. The Bills have not played terribly well overall to date. (Which is all technically in the past, of course.)

 

But also, statistically, winning early (first quarter of season, for example) and often also has an outsized negative influence on those early opponents' records. And, of course, the Bills could reasonably improve and go on to win games against playoff-bound teams despite those early scraps. This is why the cliche "Week 1 is a liar" exists, because the sample size is  small enough to be simply binary: 1 or 0. Can't really tell a meaningful story with that one data point. So this week will add a LOT more to our developing understandings of the 2025 season. And still it's early.  

[DrPJax]

23 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Totally get the disparity in quality of wins and losses. Can be indicative of future performances. Even the Bills wins, minus Panthers and Jets, were competitive, frustrating affairs for much of those games. The Bills have not played terribly well overall to date. (Which is all technically in the past, of course.)

 

But also, statistically, winning early (first quarter of season, for example) and often also has an outsized negative influence on those early opponents' records. And, of course, the Bills could reasonably improve and go on to win games against playoff-bound teams despite those early scraps. This is why the cliche "Week 1 is a liar" exists, because the sample size is  small enough to be simply binary: 1 or 0. Can't really tell a meaningful story with that one data point. So this week will add a LOT more to our developing understandings of the 2025 season. And still it's early.  

      All great points.  Agree with the point made.  However , I’m sure like me there are those on here that have watched the bills or football for 30-40 years. The eye test , your gut feeling, your basic football knowledge, intuition, whatever you call it is a real thing and probably just as valid judging a teams play quality by mathematical analysis or other metrics. You know when the Bills look good and have that swag.  
 

     This year it’s not there , at least yet. Yes we beat the ravens by 1 point , after they just did things to collapse and we did force some lucky turnovers. 9/10 times we lose that game but that night things went our way by ONE POINT after our d gave up 40!  We all know giving up 40 usually is a loss. So in my eyes it’s a win , but that’s about all to say about it. Then we beat poor teams like the jets, saints , panthers. We lose at home where you normally are given a 3 point edge , to a qb just starting his second year , a new head coach just beginning to build his roster , and we looked bad on 0 , scoring what 20, after Beane baby chastised a radio host because we lead the league LAST YEAR SCORING 30 a game.  Where was 30 that game Beane baby. First real evidence that take cook away and WRs can’t get open.  Plus we saw a player Beane had praised be disciplined , fumble in the pats red zone , and drop passes while flailing his arms !  Not the true 50/50  , greatly improved guy we were told about in camp. Beane digging in on his delusion. We proceed to go to Atlanta. Everybody knew we had to stop 2 people , Robinson and the receiver. We gave up an embarrassing 335 yards in the first half and our offense looked terrible as cook was easily shut down. Josh looked confused as did the o line. Terrible game. Since the fins demolished the falcons as did another team and we saw how great the fins were tonight. Two bad losses when many on this lard touted an undefeated season or how it was a given for the 1-seed!  You know who you are ! 
 

     Every football analyst like Orlovsky , the nfl films guy on brownies bills show , even fitzy tonight on prime stayed the bills are not playing as goood as the chiefs or colts and it comes down to 3 things. Like Steve smith said , thus is a wr corp of 3’s and 4’s and Coleman is not that guy now , and is playing lazy snaps and so afraid to be hit he didn’t even look at the db on a slant , just caught the ball with his body and turtled rather than catch w his hands and get yac.  They all state this wr corp is not sb quality. They all also point out Josh’s decrease in performance and no ones sure why tho a terrible receiving corp he lacks confidence in may play a role. Even Josh admitted his fundamentals are off. Finally , but not least , all who are honest know this d has been a mess until last game. But do you trust your analysis playing a terrible team with a horrible perfidy by dalton to say thus d is now good?  I don’t. Dalton is no Mahomes , and Reid wasn’t coaching Dalton. My point is, trust your eye test and your bills knowledge. Reid is 4-0 against McD in playoffs , while we are 4-1 in regular season games. 
 

    This is not a typical regular season game. It’s critical in the standings first both.  If we lose , kiss the 1 seed which Beane and Mcd  stressed so much as the path to the SB all offseason!  Pats will prob take the division based on schedule. We lose and KC , colts, ravens , pats are all suddenly looking to be peaking at the right time , November, and we are fighting for a wild card in all likelihood.  So far we have beaten only poor teams except for the very lucky win against the ravens, and watching them tonight , if we play them again it’s likely we lose. They are getting more healthy , we aren’t and we are filling our roster with guys we previously let go over a year ago ( and they were also let go by other teams ) , and our starters like benford , Milano, our undersized mlb , Coleman , white are not living up to expectations as we wait to see if Hancock and Hairston can catch up.  We even have a ? At kicker now.    Palmer is out and Oliver is out , not good for a game we’re already overmatched talent wise ( an opinion by most analysts , and both sides of the ball). So , yes , we have a record of 5-2. BARELY!   My eyes tell me this roster is not SB quality , and perhaps Josh can do enough if he plays better , to get us a wildcard birth and outside shot  at the division should we lose against KC. I dint have faith in Beane doing anything but protecting his own reputation and pride. While the world calls for a wr addition like olave, I’m betting he does nothing to help Josh w a wr. He will point out Gabriel is on the way!  He was terrible in Jax!   Not all wins are equal. If so , we have the better record , playing at home ( yet we’re home dogs) so we should beat KC , right?  Hey we could get a cowboys like running type win, but spags is no cowboy.  What does your gut , your eye test of bills play say to you?  Mine says if we get behind at any time by more than 1 possession, it’s over. My eyes also tell me it will lead to more losses with a wr corp that like Steve said , is poor and filled with WRs who scare no other team.  Another wasted year of a superstars career that is half over or more.   Quality of opposition, quality of wins is predictive of future play. If you dont believe that , then explain how Vegas sets odds and why they are so successful at attaining wealth ? 
 

     Can the Bills win Sunday ? Yes if they run well and win the turnover battle by 2 imo.  My eyes also  tell me we beat crap teams so far , KC is getting better and they have a larger margin to make mistakes and win.  I think they pound this d , Brady abandons the run , and this wr corp can’t get open to make up any deficit. Bills possibly miss playoffs with a loss, while a win to me means they have embraced being a run team and they make Josh the superstar , a manager as Beane won’t get quality WRs. That’s not great to watch in all honesty but winning is all that matters now.  Prior games have meaning and so far this roster looks below par being lead by a true star whose career is flying by. Beane is nice? I see him as arrogant. Happy Halloween! 
 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

I can't help but laugh at the juxtaposition of the top two posts on this board being this one and "Are Beane and McDermott building a secretly elite offense?"