Buftex Posted July 7, 2005 Share Posted July 7, 2005 Because trade value is determined by the market you are trading in and not the market when the player was selected. Add to that a player is traded or selected based on an estimation of what he can or can't do and that estimation changes from person to person and in reality as the college game is not the pro game and as players get mileage, it is perfectly reasonable that a player commands more or less today than was spent to acquire him earlier. I see little logic in people feeling that there is some static immutable value a player has which can be expressed in the round of a particular draft pick. Rven with the simple discounting due to time which compares one year's draft pick to another year's pick level, A 5th roung pick in one year at one position may have no relationship in terms of value to a 5th round pick in another year, or a 5th round pick at a different position in the same year. 376979[/snapback] I don't disagree, at all, but all I am saying is, if there is no market for what you are trying to sell, you have to consider what would be better for you. Taking less than what you paid for something, or sticking with what you have, in case you find yourself suddenly in the market for what you are trying to sell...football is as much a "win now" sport as any. Wouldn't you hate to see a season derailed by an injury to McGahee, and find out that all of your unproven back-ups are not so great? Personally, I think this season, more than any since the OJ Simpson era, will be very reliant on the run. Having two proven vets would not be the worst thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 Here's what I think would be fair for both parties, the Bills and the other team: Trade Henry for a 4th next year, which can conditionally escalate to either a 3rd (if Henry leads his team in rushing) or a 2nd (if Henry rushes for over 1,000 yds) or a 1st (if Henry makes the Pro Bowl). I'm especially interested to see what VABills and Bill from NYC have to say on such a trade. If Henry is as bad as they say, and if all other 31 GM's agree with these two, one still has to admit that losing a 4th rounder in next year's draft (a draft pick that couldn't contribute to THIS season) is a perfectly acceptable risk for a team that may be very desperate to replace an injured starting RB in August/September (and that may not be able to afford more expensive RB's like James or Alexander). 376819[/snapback] First of all, thanks for even caring at all wrt my opinion on this matter. The trade proposal is GREAT. I would pull the trigger right now. The problem is, the 31 GMs determined on draft day that TH was not even worth a first day pick in a notoriously weak draft. I am asking you to consider the possibility that it is the off season, and there is little to discuss, both on TBD and in the football media. Trade rumors set people off; you can clearly see it on this board. At this rate, the "Gallery or Jason Taylor for Henry" posts will soon reappear, wouldn't you say? Travis WAS a second round pick. Since then, he has had a problem with fumbles, missed a team flight to Miami, missed blocks, suffered injurues, went bankrupt, had an off field issue, slid on his dumb ass in front of truck sized holes, sulked, and even packed his bags, ststing that he was through with the Bills. Not enough? His record in games that he started is dismal enough to make Bledsoe resemble Montana. Please find an incorrect statement above. I do NOT want TD to merely give him away. If a team is stupid and/or desperate enough to give us a pick for this idiotic miscreant, I am all for it. That said, rumors and dreams notwithstanding, if we look at this with the rose colored glasses off, an early pick does not seem like a reality. Jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cåblelady Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 I do NOT want TD to merely give him away. 377072[/snapback] You want him to send TH to NYC so he'll be closer to you. I'm sorry. I'm sorry -------------> slowly backing away from my computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 You want him to send TH to NYC so he'll be closer to you. I'm sorry. I'm sorry -------------> slowly backing away from my computer. 377076[/snapback] You could never offend me CL. You are just WAY too cool. I will now back away from the anger that will soon come from BiB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted July 8, 2005 Author Share Posted July 8, 2005 First of all, thanks for even caring at all wrt my opinion on this matter. The trade proposal is GREAT. I would pull the trigger right now. The problem is, the 31 GMs determined on draft day that TH was not even worth a first day pick in a notoriously weak draft. I am asking you to consider the possibility that it is the off season, and there is little to discuss, both on TBD and in the football media. Trade rumors set people off; you can clearly see it on this board. At this rate, the "Gallery or Jason Taylor for Henry" posts will soon reappear, wouldn't you say? Travis WAS a second round pick. Since then, he has had a problem with fumbles, missed a team flight to Miami, missed blocks, suffered injurues, went bankrupt, had an off field issue, slid on his dumb ass in front of truck sized holes, sulked, and even packed his bags, ststing that he was through with the Bills. Not enough? His record in games that he started is dismal enough to make Bledsoe resemble Montana. Please find an incorrect statement above. I do NOT want TD to merely give him away. If a team is stupid and/or desperate enough to give us a pick for this idiotic miscreant, I am all for it. That said, rumors and dreams notwithstanding, if we look at this with the rose colored glasses off, an early pick does not seem like a reality. Jmo. Uh, Bill, did you read my original post in this thread?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 Uh, Bill, did you read my original post in this thread?! 377098[/snapback] Yes my friend, but I was responding to KH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted July 8, 2005 Author Share Posted July 8, 2005 Yes my friend, but I was responding to KH. I know. But your last statement that "an early pick doesn't seem likely" is refuted by what I quoted in my post. Unless you don't consider a 3rd rounder and "early pick." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 I know. But your last statement that "an early pick doesn't seem likely" is refuted by what I quoted in my post. Unless you don't consider a 3rd rounder and "early pick." 377110[/snapback] I would be fine with a 3rd. The truth is, I view it as quite unlikely, but I want YOU to be correct, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cåblelady Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 I would be fine with a 3rd. The truth is, I view it as quite unlikely, but I want YOU to be correct, not me. 377113[/snapback] I want some chocolate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 I want some chocolate. 377114[/snapback] 10/16. Lot 1/Pole 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coywire27 Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 As far as Travis Henry is concerned, my information is that the Bills want the compensation in a trade for him to be conditional. My information is they want the compensation to be upgraded to a second-round pick if Henry achieves a designated level of production. I think that's the stumbling block in a trade to Jacksonville. A second-round pick starts to get a little pricey. I have no problem with a third-round pick. As far as I'm concerned, if the price is a third-round pick, pull the trigger. --Jaguars.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted July 8, 2005 Author Share Posted July 8, 2005 See: http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=26191 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typical TBD Guy Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 377072[/snapback] I respect your opinion, Bill, but I REALLY think you're underestimating the number of injuries that will likely happen to RB's throughout pre-season. It's all about supply and demand; once the NFL supply of RB's starts dwindling, suddenly those same GM's that frowned upon Henry's fumbling in 2002, his poor 2004 season, his pouting after McGahee's arrival, his learning disability, and his various youthful off-the-field discretions will start to focus less on these and more on Henry's two 1000+ yard, Pro Bowl alternate performances in '02 and '03. It happens every pre-season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 First of all, thanks for even caring at all wrt my opinion on this matter. The trade proposal is GREAT. I would pull the trigger right now. The problem is, the 31 GMs determined on draft day that TH was not even worth a first day pick in a notoriously weak draft. I am asking you to consider the possibility that it is the off season, and there is little to discuss, both on TBD and in the football media. Trade rumors set people off; you can clearly see it on this board. At this rate, the "Gallery or Jason Taylor for Henry" posts will soon reappear, wouldn't you say? Travis WAS a second round pick. Since then, he has had a problem with fumbles, missed a team flight to Miami, missed blocks, suffered injurues, went bankrupt, had an off field issue, slid on his dumb ass in front of truck sized holes, sulked, and even packed his bags, ststing that he was through with the Bills. Not enough? His record in games that he started is dismal enough to make Bledsoe resemble Montana. Please find an incorrect statement above. I do NOT want TD to merely give him away. If a team is stupid and/or desperate enough to give us a pick for this idiotic miscreant, I am all for it. That said, rumors and dreams notwithstanding, if we look at this with the rose colored glasses off, an early pick does not seem like a reality. Jmo. 377072[/snapback] Its just great to see you abandoning an earlier position you stated at least a couple of times that the Bills should cut TH because you assess him as stinking pretty completely and assess 31 other GMs as having little or no interest in him. True he had significant fumble issuesin 2002, but the good news for the Bills was that he improved signficantly in this regard and the game result from any fumbles in 2003 and though the facts are what the facts were, the more recent facts make this a relative non-issue in terms of a team weighing whether to trade for him (by relative non-issue I mean that past reality good or bad is a real factor it just is not a lead factor). In fact, to a minor very small extent this is a factor there is a small plus for him regarding this that despite his "interesting" intellectual deficits he proved trainable in solving this problem. I assume it is true he also missed a team flight (I don't remember this episode at all it was so minor (if he missed a game it would be major or if in disciplining him the HC saw fit to bench him for a quarter or more then it would be major. My sense to the extent this is a trade factor it would have to be in conjunction with a team feeling like this example in conjunction with other events add up into something real. Otherwise rather than impacting his trade value I suspect that most teams would deal with this by buying him a watch. The major missed block I remember TH failing to do was when he failed to pick up a blitz as a rookie and even Flutie got sacked. Like most rookies he struggled learning blitz pick-up but like many rookies he did and this was not mentioned as a major TH problem in 2002 or 2003 and re-emerged as a complaint when folks were looking for reasons to find fault in TH's game. I've never seen blitz pick-up as a strength for Henry (as it was for example for Thurman or Centers) but it is not an issue with him eitheras best as I can tell. It seems particularly odd for me to focus on this issue as sme key difference in quality between WM and TH when the bigger real difference between the two is that TH's outside speed and stiff arm does not compare to WM's and like most 1st year players there was not much greatness to be seen in WM blitz pick-up work either. The focus on missed blocks by TH simply strikes me as bizarre. The issue of TH failing to hit some obvious holes because he fell strikes me as really happening a couple of times, but not strike me as some trend in his game. For those couple of times their are also myriad examples of Henry failing to go down on the first hit and him keeping his legs moving and showing good balance as part of his picking up 1300+ yds teo years in a row (unless you want to insist the Bills blocking was so good in 02 and 03 Th was usually untouched by tacklers behind the line or until he went downfield. The issue that he sulked sriles me as more in the eye of the beholder than any demonstration on his part. He sat and did not cheerlead last year and no one would mistake him for Darryl Talley. However, it is funny how some folks tried to translate this into him being a cancer when actually he did all I wanted last year once WM asserted himself by shutting up and not being a distraction. As far as packing his bags, yep he did but as long as he will move them to a new town we trade him to that is fine with me. Again the crusade against Henry really seems to consist of you and other folks diregarding the good things he has done while finding fault with folks disregarding his record with the Bills. I do not disregard either and will be happy to see him taded but recognize that he has trade value because of his play and production. I compliment TD for sticking to his guns on this one and things look good short of the deal actually getting done because he recognizes thar TH is not all pluses and also not all minuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarthur31 Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 I think a 2nd rounder might be posturing. I hope it's at least a 3rd rounder. Peerless only had 1 great year and yet we were able to screw the Falcons out of a 1st! Hehehehehehe Travis has done alot more in less time and a 2nd round pick would be worth it if teams would sit and think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 I'm especially interested to see what VABills and Bill from NYC have to say on such a trade. 376819[/snapback] Who the heck cares what they think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABills Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 Who the heck cares what they think? 377810[/snapback] I agree. Who cares what they think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted July 9, 2005 Author Share Posted July 9, 2005 The latest rumor is that the deal for a 3rd that conditionally becomes a 2nd is all but done and ready to be finalized mid-week. Again that's rumor, so it will be interesting to see if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 The latest rumor is that the deal for a 3rd that conditionally becomes a 2nd is all but done and ready to be finalized mid-week. Again that's rumor, so it will be interesting to see if it happens. 377815[/snapback] Any links to the rumor ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted July 9, 2005 Author Share Posted July 9, 2005 Any links to the rumor ? The only link I have is to the Buffalo Bills message board, where 2 people heard it on radio in WNY, and one heard it on the radio in Jax. That's why it's a rumor at this point. But is has some legs, since my original post in this thread talks about the same trade parameters, but the conditional 2nd having been the sticking point. Maybe the Jags finally realized that Taylor isn't going to be able to carry the load this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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