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100 yard rusher vs 300 yard passer winning percentage - interesting


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12 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

300 yard games in today's NFL don't mean much.  "It's a passing league" after all.   

 

Matt Ryan and Eli Manning are #8 & #9 all time in passing yards. 

 

And yet as dollars 2 donuts points out, only 1 out of every 5 QB performances last year (112-544) resulted in a 300 yard game.

 

That's probably fewer than most people would think. 

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This is not the least bit surprising since teams run more when ahead. People tend to forget that the best option for winning is to exercise your greatest advantages over your opponent, assuming game conditions favor that approach. The rules were changed to open up offenses, so more passing, but if you have D Henry at RB and your offense isn't centered around Henry, you're an idiot. Besides, I think the game has lost a good balance between run and pass and is slightly less interesting because of it.

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5 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

And yet as dollars 2 donuts points out, only 1 out of every 5 QB performances last year (112-544) resulted in a 300 yard game.

 

That's probably fewer than most people would think. 

 

I look at it from this standpoint.  A 4500 yard season for a QB used to average out to 281 yards per game.  (16 game season) 

 

That's still a monster season as far as yardage.  

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15 hours ago, BuffaloBills1998 said:

I disagree, Josh needs a running game to rely on so he doesn’t get killed trying to constantly run the ball himself. Also I’m sure his INTS would go down if he has a consistent running game to rely on

 

 

No, you can't be sure about something like that, that's a guess.

 

Might be correct. Might not.

 

But we know that our run game was better in 2021 than in 2020, in YPA and in total yards. Yet Allen's passing was slightly better in 2020, and a signficantly higher INT percentage in 2021 despite the run game being quite a bit worse in total.

 

Certainly there were other reasons for this it's not a great correlation. But that's the point. You can't assume that your imaginary alternate reality correlation will be true or even if they happened would be true through cause and effect.

 

15 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

9 rushes vs something like 45 pass attempts.  

 

 

Um, no. 9 rushes by running backs, not 9 rushes. And numbers introduced by phrases like, "something like" are right out there as guesses.

 

Guessed numbers wouldn't show anything anyway. What if they were higher? Lower? We have no idea what would have happened. All we really know is that the whole offense played awful, that the line was overwhelmed, and that when they did run, the backs the results sucked. Thinking those numbers showed they should run more makes no sense. They can't run and they can't pass and that means they should have run more and things would have been better? There's no logic there.

Edited by Thurman#1
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14 hours ago, prissythecat said:

5.6 ypa passing so the passing game was pretty darn bad on its own yet they kept trying.   

 

 

Yeah, hard to figure out why they kept trying using the strategy that got them 5.6 ypa versus the strategy that got them 2.4 ypc.

 

Clearly a logician would tell you that we can see from those numbers that if they'd run more they have done much better.

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13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

To what?  That Carson Wentz is terrible?

 

Without Taylor they probably win 3 games last year.  

 

Using "made the playoffs" or "winning the Super Bowl" as the only barometer is ridiculous 

 

 

Um, OK. So, why did you say:

 

On 9/5/2022 at 9:38 PM, Big Blitz said:

 

The stats still support running and stopping the run are vital in putting together a SB team

 

 

When you say stuff like this, of course people are going to tell you about the actual facts about SB teams.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

To what?  That Carson Wentz is terrible?

 

Without Taylor they probably win 3 games last year.  

 

Using "made the playoffs" or "winning the Super Bowl" as the only barometer is ridiculous 

 

I don't disagree on the Colts. They have the best running back in football and last year had the worst starting QB in football. Given that the run game mattered to them. But I suggest if you switched it around.... gave them the best QB and the worst starting RB they would have won more games and made the post season. In fact if you go back to the last period in which they regularly made the playoffs in the early Andrew Luck years they were doing so with Vick Ballard and Trent Richardson averaging less then 4 yards a carry as among the worst backs in the league.

 

Moral of the story - if your QB is Carson Wentz you better have a run game. If youe QB is Josh Allen you want to throw it. A lot. 

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13 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:


Literally the opposite is true.

Sorry, wrong. When a pass catching rb enters game and never runs the ball, it helps the d. Change of pace backs are also easy prey for Def coordinators. 

Even Thurmans successful back ups were similar styles. 

If you do not have a dominate back who gets you 100 yards, you really have no running game to be feared. It is the fear to Def coordinators that changes a game plan.

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4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, hard to figure out why they kept trying using the strategy that got them 5.6 ypa versus the strategy that got them 2.4 ypc.

 

Clearly a logician would tell you that we can see from those numbers that if they'd run more they have done much better.

 

Kind of an ignorant statement since run and pass output is typically quite different.  A good passing game usually is one that is over 7.0 ypa while a good running game is usually over 4.5 ypc.  The two numbers are not comparable.    Keep trying though

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4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Um, no. 9 rushes by running backs, not 9 rushes. And numbers introduced by phrases like, "something like" are right out there as guesses.

 

 

I remember looking at the box score to see the breakdown months ago  and just recalled that they had over 40 pass attempts .  So it wasn't a guess.   As an fyi ,  the exact figure from the box score was 47 pass attempts.   

On the running side ,  if we include Josh's scrambles,  the run attempts goes up to 14.  Not a material increase.   But curiously enough,  the ypc number goes up to 5.1 (which is pretty darn good).  So one could actually argue that we should have had Josh scramble more and pass less 😛

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On 9/6/2022 at 6:35 AM, Matt_In_NH said:

And do you take out your starting RB with the big lead?

Um, no?  Just saying there is an actual reason why 100 yard rushing games are co-related strongly with wins.  They often happen BECAUSE you are winning.

The Bills are likely to have both, or more 300y passing wins, because that is how we build big leads.

 

Also, as in the last 2 Pats games, its how we run out the clock 😁 

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