OT = Al-Qaida's #3 Man Arrested in Pakistan

[Pete]

 

I would not be shocked if publicity about this very good get is more prompted by sagging Bush poll numbers than winning the war on terrorism

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You are quite the cynic. The dude has been number one on Pakistans list for awhile and top 6 in Pakistan for a couple years. There was a $10 million reward for him. Al-Zawahiri is the number 2 man and really the number 1 man. He is the brain behind al quaeda and he is not in Iraq. I have suspected that he and bin laden are in Iran but thats just my theory. You seem to underestimate al quaeda capabilities. With internet programs in code it is plausible that al-Zawahiri is the planner. No doubt his capibilites are diminished thanks to our troops. As for the cell member 3 not knowing where #1 is this is true. But cell 3 knows how he is getting instructions and who is giving them to him. Enter Pakistan interrogation techniques. Bush is not gonna run again so your bitter attitude that this is for ratings is pure paranoia

[Pete]

http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtm...9/19/walq19.xml

 

Here is an article a year old stating Abu Faraj al Libbi was third in command and high on our capture list-

 

Al Qa'eda third in command 'is running terror cells in the UK'

By Massoud Ansari in Karachi

(Filed: 19/09/2004)

 

A Libyan hunted by Pakistan because of his senior role in the al Qa'eda terrorist network has taken charge of its sleeper cells in Britain and the United States, Pakistani intelligence officials believe.

 

Abu Faraj al Libbi, said to have taken over as third in command of al Qa'eda when his mentor, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, was captured last year, has sent coded messages to "several" Islamic militants in Britain over the past 10 months, according to Pakistani officials.

[KD in CA]

I would not be shocked if publicity about this very good get is more prompted by sagging Bush poll numbers than winning the war on terrorism

328859[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

One guy doesn't win or lose the war. Bush has made that pretty clear since day one. Any publicity is going to be generated by the media who need to sensationalize everything and anything to get attention and boost ratings/sales.

[Pete]

seems to me Bush is doing well with his hunt-

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2780525.stm

[Ghost of BiB]

Tools>Options>Other>General>Advanced Options>Reminder Options>Uncheck Reminder Sound.

 

Anything else?

328725[/snapback]

 

your just so fu**ing dreamy...you know everything.

 

Do you wrestle?

[Tux of Borg]

I don't seem to remember her looking this good in "Tomb Raider!"  

328726[/snapback]

 

And for those who don't think Angelina Jolie is hot...

 

another pic

[jarthur31]

The nuts factor makes her stock go up for a night or two.  I mean Angelie would be a crazy lay!

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She's into incest.

[beausox]

'One less' would probably have worked..... and don't throw crap with the monkeys!  You can't beat them at their own game.

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Au cotraire, mon frere. THE one thing the pitiful pack of peccaries who throw crap fear is someone who ignores the crap thrown. Many of those who are members of the "axel of bullies" rely upon the idea that most people will tire of their vitriol. They are very good at being annoying and they work well in concert. You have doubtless noted that peccaries run willy-nilly over the forest floor and by dint of their furious and coordinated attempt at chaos hope to give the appearance of a pack of fearless hyena. There is nothing more pathetic than a " bully-coward" when exposed. They are not feared but they are loathed.

 

Also "one less" would have worked for you and most but I wished to convey with economy that there were more remaining to be lessened.

[Britbillsfan]

I think the numbering has more to do with American media promotion of what is certainly a great capture of an enemy of ours than it has to do with a theoretical pie chart of Al Quada organization.

 

1. Given US intelligence monitoring of electronic communications there is clearly little opportunity for the static command and control methods of having a ranks and western organizational structure for al Quada.  The entity seems more like  mercury in a thermometer. There was a traditional command and control system when they had the state of Afghanistan, but when they got stomped there they broke apart into separately operating and controlled cells.  Perhaps through couriers and pre-arranged public communications in newspaper using codewords, bin Laden knows much of what is going on and exercises some general control over it, but specific decisions within a broad framework seem left to inidividual leaders all over the place.

 

2. The cell method of operational secrecy works only when the left hand and the right hand operate under the same general orders but specifically do not know what each other is doing or where they  are.  I doubt that this #3 even know were #1 or #5 are right now.

 

3. al Zawahiri is cited in these articles as #2, but he only recently (in the past year pledged his fealty to bin Laden and seems to be operating in Iraq where I'm sure his hands are full killing people and avoiding capture. The idea that he is somehow 2nd in command running things in al Quaeda is far fetched.

 

4. This guy wasn't even on the FBI list of most wanted terror suspects.

 

I would not be shocked if publicity about this very good get is more prompted by sagging Bush poll numbers than winning the war on terrorism

328859[/snapback]

Think of Libbi and his predecessors in the no. 3 role as generals and it becomes clearer why they are the ones getting caught and killed. As an operations man he has to plan and coordinate (as much as it is possible with such a dispersed command structure) major terrorist operations, and as such these individuals when caught provide vast amounts of data.

 

bin Laden is effectively the organisation's 'head of state', in that he decides broad policy but his 'generals' are the ones that implement the detailed planning to follow in line with that policy.

 

Ayman al Zawahiri has been the no. 2 in al Qaeda for a very long time and can mostly be found beside OBL as they as very close (family ties by marriage as well as their alliance).

 

al Zarqawi is the nasty piece of work operating in Iraq, and is building up his own power base there with a different group that has pledged allegiance to OBL. He MIGHT take over al Qaeda some day or he might go his own way (assuming the scum does not get a bullet in the head at some point) as a seperate terrorist leader.

 

al Qaeda is a somewhat lazy catch-all for a whole slew of Islamic extremist groups, Zarqiri heads one of those groups and others operate in just about every muslim country, but many have very little contact or in common with OBL's organisation except a very similar ideology. al-Libbi was a al Qauda man, though.

 

As for the most wanted list - most of those guys are wanted for previous attacks on US targets (Cole, embassies, 9/11) and a fair few are no more than low ranied foot soldiers who did a lot of the grunt work in setting up those attacks (especially the embassy attacks). al Libbi was not high enough in the organisation even a few years ago to be in on these atrocities and was not directly involved, hence his absense - however he would be someone who needed to be caught and who is very important to AQ.

[KRC]

Think of Libbi and his predecessors in the no. 3 role as generals and it becomes clearer why they are the ones getting caught and killed. As an operations man he has to plan and coordinate (as much as it is possible with such a dispersed command structure) major terrorist operations, and as such these individuals when caught provide vast amounts of data.

 

bin Laden is effectively the organisation's 'head of state', in that he decides broad policy but his 'generals' are the ones that implement the detailed planning to follow in line with that policy.

 

Ayman al Zawahiri has been the no. 2 in al Qaeda for a very long time and can mostly be found beside OBL as they as very close (family ties by marriage as well as their alliance).

 

al Zarqawi is the nasty piece of work operating in Iraq, and is building up his own power base there with a different group that has pledged allegiance to OBL. He MIGHT take over al Qaeda some day or he might go his own way (assuming the scum does not get a bullet in the head at some point) as a seperate terrorist leader.

 

al Qaeda is a somewhat lazy catch-all for a whole slew of Islamic extremist groups, Zarqiri heads one of those groups and others operate in just about every muslim country, but many have very little contact or in common with OBL's organisation except a very similar ideology. al-Libbi was a al Qauda man, though.

 

As for the most wanted list - most of those guys are wanted for previous attacks on US targets (Cole, embassies, 9/11) and a fair few are no more than low ranied foot soldiers who did a lot of the grunt work in setting up those attacks (especially  the embassy attacks). al Libbi was not high enough in the organisation even a few years ago to be in on these atrocities and was not directly involved, hence his absense - however he would be someone who needed to be caught and who is very important to AQ.

329056[/snapback]

 

 

You always provide good analysis of AQ and other terrorist organizations. Thank you.

 

The problem some people are having, as you mentioned, is that they use AQ as an all-encompassing entity to define terrorism. While AQ may provide funding or training to other Islamic terrorist organizations, they are not all one organization. Also, capturing OBL is not going to stop the attacks because, as was mentioned, AQ is not the only organization doing the attacking.

 

We have had this discussion before. With OBL gone, there will be a power vacuum. al-Zawahri may or may not take control of AQ. al-Zarqawi may make a move to control the organization and al-Zawahri may let him. al-Zawahri seems to be comfortable in his #2 role and may want to continue in that capacity. al-Zarqawi wants to be "the man." I predict that if al-Zawahri wants to be the number one guy, that he will be taken out by al-Zarqawi so that there is nothing standing in his way to become OBL's replacement.

[Crap Throwing Monkey]

Annoying you is so easy it is almost no fun. The capture of Libbi reduces the number of Islamic and associated terrorists by exactly one. It could not be said: "one more more" or "one less less". It did not have to be said "one more less"and i was trying to keep the counting on one hand so you could follow the count without getting confused.

328841[/snapback]

 

Nice explanation. "One more less" made more sense...

[ch19079]

Good… now give him to our friends in Sudan for a friendly interrogation. 

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yeah, anyone who can commit genocide can probubly "interogate" someone, and get lots of info.....

 

i dont know if thats sarcastic or true....

[Ghost of BiB]

Some good analysis, Brit and others...

 

I may have skipped over it, but US Intell was very aware of this guy. He's not on the "list" because he is not under indictment in the US, as he hasn't been connected legally enough with US activities. He is the product of increased signals intelligence and was often mentioned within the files of hardrives confiscated from other sources.

 

And it's very true that AQ is not an organization in regular terms. It's at this point an affiliation more than anything else.

[Pete]

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/print?id=735566

 

sounds promising! oh yeah FFS says Al-Libbi is a noboby who was only announced his caputure to boost Bush ratings

[Campy]

oh yeah FFS says Al-Libbi is a noboby who was only announced his caputure to boost Bush ratings

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There seems to be more than just FFS who questions the real importance of this capture.

 

Bush called him a “top general” and “a major facilitator and chief planner for the Al- Qaeda network”. Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, said he was “a very important figure”. Yet the backslapping in Washington and Islamabad has astonished European terrorism experts, who point out that the Libyan was neither on the FBI’s most wanted list, nor on that of the State Department “rewards for justice” programme.

 

Another Libyan is on the FBI list — Anas al-Liby, who is wanted over the 1998 East African embassy bombings — and some believe the Americans may have initially confused the two. When The Sunday Times contacted a senior FBI counter-terrorism official for information about the importance of the detained man, he sent material on al-Liby, the wrong man.

 

“Al-Libbi is just a ‘middle-level’ leader,” said Jean-Charles Brisard, a French intelligence investigator and leading expert on terrorism finance. “Pakistan and US authorities have completely overestimated his role and importance. He was never more than a regional facilitator between Al-Qaeda and local Pakistani Islamic groups.”

 

According to Brisard, the arrested man lacks the global reach of Al-Qaeda leaders such as Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden’s number two, Khalid Shaikh Mohammad, the mastermind of the September 11 attacks, or Anas al-Liby.

 

Although British intelligence has evidence of telephone calls between al-Libbi and operatives in the UK, he is not believed to be Al-Qaeda’s commander of operations in Europe, as reported.

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1602568,00.html

[Britbillsfan]

There seems to be more than just FFS who questions the real importance of this capture. 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1602568,00.html

331613[/snapback]

Ruddy terrorists causing confusion by having nearidentical names.......even so the guy is relatively important compared to the low level trash that is more often swept up.