(ot)Derby Fever

[plenzmd1]

I think you'll do quite well with Bellamy Road if you think he will be 4-5. I am predicting he will go off at 7-2 or so. There are too many other legitimate horses running. It's a whole new ballgame when there is competition up front for the lead, and waves of horses come at you. He didn't face that test in the Wood, although he should be a deserving favorite off that race.

 

I'm using Noble Causeway and High Fly. They both ran at Gulfstream all winter. The one thing most of these other horses have in common, Bellamy Road, Bandini, Silver Coin....is that they ran their huge race after shipping from Gulfstream. Noble Causeway needs to improve, but he is built like a freight train and should love the distance. High Fly is a consistant horse with tactical speed.

 

My guess on odds:

Bellamy Road 7-2

Afleet Alex 5-1

High Fly 6-1

Bandini 6-1

High Limit 10-1

Noble Causeway 12-1

Coin Silver 12-1

Greely's Galaxy 15-1

Sun King 15-1

Wilko 20-1

 

All the rest should be also rans.

328088[/snapback]

 

 

Right now at the offshore books, he is around 6--to--5.. Dam, he goes to 7--to--2 i may just unload the bank account. I do not think you will even get even money on him, but like I said more like 4---to---5

[Albany,n.y.]

Here are my selections

 

The Contenders:

 

15 Bandini

Pletcher/Velasquez duo is set to win the Derby by sitting slightly off a hot pace up front and firing as he did in the Blue Grass. The Blue Grass is a hidden good race as both Ragozin and Thorograph sheet #s are higher relative to the Beyers than other races. Bandini’s Blue Grass got a 1.1 lower Thorograph than Afleet Alex’s Arkansas Derby #. While some feel he will bounce, since he had a 6.4 forward move from a prior top of 3.3, he has never regressed in any of his 5 starts. Even though the Blue Grass looks slow, it not only was fast, but it was the race that drew the toughest field of the final preps, 4 of the 6 horses that Bandini beat were winners of graded stakes in their race prior to the Blue Grass. Also, he is one of only one of 3 horses in this race with 3 1 1/8th races-a solid foundation leading up to this race. As solid a horse as one can find in this field of 20, and my top selection.

 

11 High Fly

5 for 6 lifetime, including a victory over my top choice. Bailey rides in what might be his last Derby. He’s the best of the Zito horses, although he doesn’t have the lofty figures of Bellamy Road. Should sit a good trip with a running style similar to Bandini’s. Another with a good foundation of 3 straight 1 1/8th races.

 

12 Afleet Alex

At one point he was my first choice until I found out Bandini had a higher sheet #. Looked impressive in the Arkansas Derby, but who did he beat? The 2nd and 3rd horses are 20/1 & 50/1 ML here. He has a solid foundation with a 6 race 2yo season and 3 preps this year. However, his 1st prep was only a 6f sprint and his 2nd prep was a poor race when he had a lung infection. Biggest negative is his jockey, Jeremy Rose, who was responsible for his Breeder’s Cup defeat by Wilko last year and almost blew the Hopeful with a bad ride last summer. There’s no room for error in the Derby, where Afleet Alex will have to negotiate a come from behind trip. You can expect Rose to cost this horse at least a length or 2 somewhere in this race. Any comparison to last year’s winning rider, Stew Elliott, is unfounded, since Rose has had at least 2 bad rides on this horse already. Still, he’s one of the best horses in the race and if Rose rides the race of his life, he could make it to the top.

 

4 Noble Causeway

Another Zito horse who ran 2nd to stablemate High Fly in the Florida Derby. Only horses to beat him this year are Bandini & High Fly. Nothing to really knock him. He’s the 3rd horse with the last 3 races at 1 1/8th. He has a decent shot to run in the superfecta and might even run 2nd or 3rd. It’s tough to see him winning this but he could be a Travers horse.

 

16 Bellamy Road

He’s the favorite off his Wood Memorial blowout, earning a lofty 120 Beyer and a negative 5 on the Thorograph Sheets. I’m not concerned about a bounce-his –0.1 going into the Wood shows he has developed into a fast horse since Zito took over, but his running style is why I can’t put him any better than 4th. With the exception of his 1st race, a 6f sprint, he has always gone right to the lead. This year he’s gotten loose on the lead in both his races and ran like a wild horse. Well this time he will be getting pressured every step of the way, and I doubt he can handle it. If he doesn’t go for the lead, he may get totally discouraged running behind horses in a huge field. His two distance races as a 2 yo send the alarms ringing on this one. In the MGD Cradle he lost 3 ¼ lengths in the stretch of a 1 1/16th race. Worse was his Breeder’s Futurity at Keenland last October, where he went for the lead, weakened, and finished 7th, 12 lengths behind. After that race George Steinbrenner fired Michael Dickenson and replaced him with Nick Zito, who is 2/2 with him-both blow out victories. Another negative is he only has 2 races this year, something that hasn’t worked well for past Derby entrants.

 

9 Greeley’s Galaxy

Tomlinson indicates he’s bred for it, waiting for a OTB Channel Breeding # on Saturday. Jumped up from a prior top of 4.3 to a –2 Thorograph sheet # in blowout win in the Illinois Derby. Another one who hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence, but he’s one of only 4 with a negative sheet #. He might be the toughest horse in this race for me to figure.

 

Best of the rest, could be in the superfecta:

 

7 Flower Alley

Tomlinson breeding figure is really different than OTB Channel Breeding here. Finished way behind Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby, and really hasn’t beaten anything of quality. If you trust the OTB Channel Breeding #, he could make it up for 4th.

 

14 Wilko

Tomlinson & doseage say no, OTB Channel Breeding says he has the best distance pedigree in the race. Here’s a horse who, off his Beyers looks like he’s failed to progress as a 3yo. Has only 2 races this year & may still not be ready to fire his best race. He’s a total unknown on the surface, since he has trained at Hollywood for this. Could finish as high as 3rd, could finish last.

 

2 Andromeda’s Hero

If the front runners all collapse, he could suck up for 3rd or 4th. More likely to finish 9th, where I have him.

 

Forget about them (in no particular order):

 

13 Spanish Chestnut Best pick for last place. He’ll be 1st early, last late.

1 Sort It Out Too slow & outclassed

17 Don’t Get Mad no comment .

19 Going Wild–recent form bad

2 Closing Argument Too slow.

10 Giacomo–Breeding says no, eligible for nw1 other than

5 Coin Silver Probably the 2nd best of this no chance bunch.

8 Greater Good Beyers say he’s way too slow.

6 High Limit–Pace says no, better than most of these losers

20 Buzzards Bay– Worst post, bad 1 ¼ breeding. 2nd last to SC

3 Sun King– Best form of this bunch, OTB Channel Breeding # says no way.

[Greg de'Ville]

...Afleet Alex has trained well leading up to the Derby, seems fit and ready to go. Just hope this jockey Rose gives him a good "run."

[rastabillz]

Here are my selections

 

The Contenders:

 

15 Bandini

Pletcher/Velasquez duo is set to win the Derby by sitting slightly off a hot pace up front and firing as he did in the Blue Grass.  The Blue Grass is a hidden good race as both Ragozin and Thorograph sheet #s are higher relative to the Beyers than other races.  Bandini’s Blue Grass got a 1.1 lower Thorograph than Afleet Alex’s  Arkansas Derby #.  While some feel he will bounce, since he had a 6.4 forward move from a prior top of 3.3, he has never regressed in any of his 5 starts. Even though the Blue Grass looks slow, it not only was fast, but it was the race that drew the toughest field of the final preps, 4 of the 6 horses that Bandini beat were winners of graded stakes in their race prior to the Blue Grass.  Also, he is one of only one of 3 horses in this race with 3 1 1/8th  races-a solid foundation leading up to this race.  As solid a horse as one can find in this field of 20, and my top selection.

 

11 High Fly 

5 for 6 lifetime, including a victory over my top choice.  Bailey rides in what might be his last Derby.  He’s the best of the Zito horses, although he doesn’t have the lofty figures of Bellamy Road.  Should sit a good trip with a running style similar to Bandini’s.  Another with a good foundation of 3 straight 1 1/8th races. 

 

12 Afleet Alex 

At one point he was my first choice until I found out Bandini had a higher sheet #.  Looked impressive in the Arkansas Derby, but who did he beat?  The 2nd and 3rd horses are 20/1 & 50/1 ML here.  He has a solid foundation with a 6 race 2yo season and 3 preps this year.  However, his 1st prep was only a 6f sprint and his 2nd prep was a poor race when he had a lung infection.  Biggest negative is his jockey, Jeremy Rose, who was responsible for his Breeder’s Cup defeat by Wilko last year and almost blew the Hopeful with a bad ride last summer.  There’s no room for error in the Derby, where Afleet Alex will have to negotiate a come from behind trip. You can expect Rose to cost this horse at least a length or 2 somewhere in this race.  Any comparison to last year’s winning rider, Stew Elliott, is unfounded, since Rose has had at least 2 bad rides on this horse already.  Still, he’s one of the best horses in the race and if Rose rides the race of his life, he could make it to the top. 

 

4 Noble Causeway

Another Zito horse who ran 2nd to stablemate High Fly in the Florida Derby.  Only horses to beat him this year are Bandini & High Fly.  Nothing to really knock him.  He’s the 3rd horse with the last 3 races at 1 1/8th.  He has a decent shot to run in the superfecta and might even run 2nd or 3rd.  It’s tough to see him winning this but he could be a Travers horse. 

 

16 Bellamy Road 

He’s the favorite off his Wood Memorial blowout, earning a lofty 120 Beyer and a negative 5 on the Thorograph Sheets.  I’m not concerned about a bounce-his –0.1 going into the Wood shows he has developed into a fast horse since Zito took over, but his running style is why I can’t put him any better than 4th.  With the exception of his 1st race, a 6f sprint, he has always gone right to the lead.  This year he’s gotten loose on the lead in both his races and ran like a wild horse.  Well this time he will be getting pressured every step of the way, and I doubt he can handle it.  If he doesn’t go for the lead, he may get totally discouraged running behind horses in a huge field.  His two distance races as a 2 yo send the alarms ringing on this one.  In the MGD Cradle he lost 3 ¼ lengths in the stretch of a 1 1/16th race.  Worse was his Breeder’s Futurity at Keenland last October, where he went for the lead, weakened, and finished 7th, 12 lengths behind.  After that race George Steinbrenner fired Michael Dickenson and replaced him with Nick Zito, who is 2/2 with him-both blow out victories.  Another negative is he only has 2 races this year, something that hasn’t worked well for past  Derby entrants. 

 

9 Greeley’s Galaxy

Tomlinson indicates he’s bred for it, waiting for a OTB Channel Breeding # on Saturday.  Jumped up from a prior top of 4.3 to a –2 Thorograph sheet # in blowout win in the Illinois Derby.  Another one who hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence, but he’s one of only 4 with a negative sheet #.  He might be the toughest horse in this race for me to figure. 

 

Best of the rest, could be in the superfecta:

 

7 Flower Alley

Tomlinson breeding figure is really different than OTB Channel Breeding here.  Finished way behind Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby, and really hasn’t beaten anything of quality.  If you trust the OTB Channel Breeding #, he could make it up for 4th.   

 

14 Wilko

Tomlinson & doseage say no, OTB Channel Breeding says he has the best distance pedigree in the race.  Here’s a horse who, off his Beyers looks like he’s failed to progress as a 3yo.  Has only 2 races this year & may still not be ready to fire his best race.  He’s a total unknown on the surface, since he has trained at Hollywood for this. Could finish as high as 3rd, could finish last. 

 

2 Andromeda’s Hero

If the front runners all collapse, he could suck up for 3rd or 4th.  More likely to finish 9th, where I have him. 

 

 

Albany I enjoyed reading your analysis. I am not that familar with the Torograph #'s. The most surprising thing to me in your analysis is how low you have Bellamy Road rated. The Wood performance was nothing short of sensational. None of the other horses in that race improved their figures and his speed figure of 120 is nothing short of brilliant. His derby post position should allow him to track the early speed. I doubt he will be part of the initial pace scenario with speedballs like Spainish Chestnut and High Limit.

 

A horse I think can surprise at a nice price is Sun King. Before Bellamy's Wood, Zito considered him the #1 of his 5 entrants. He wouldn't be the first horse to regress in the Blue Grass and return to run a huge race in the Derby.

 

Bandini is a tough call for me. I loved his Blue Grass effort, he beat a good field but also had a perfect trip and his speed figure was nice, but I keep getting this nagging feeling that he may have peaked and is due to regress a bit. Ya gotta respect Pletcher/Johnny V but I am just not feelin it.

 

I think Afleet Alex is a dangerous horse. While he has not beaten anyone major, his form looks outstanding and he has the strongest foundation of any horse in the field. If Jerry Baily or even Pat Day was aboard he might be the horse to beat. Your right J. Rose already has 2 suspect rides on this horse and in a 20 horse field at 11/4 miles there is not much margin for error.

 

My picks:

Bellamy Road

Afleet Alex

Sun King

[Albany,n.y.]

Two reasons I have Bellamy Road so low are 1) That race at Keenland last October really makes me wonder what he can do with horses near him. 2) The Wood produced not one Derby horse other than him. The major preps including the winner produced the following # of Derby horses: Blue Grass 5, Arkansas 4, Santa Anita 4, Florida 2, Illinois 1, Wood 1.

On all figures, Bellamy Road ran the fastest of all these, he also has a top trainer, but he is not battle tested and will either win by the length of the stretch or not hit the board. I'm guessing the latter-we'll know on Saturday.

[Mark VI]

Two reasons I have Bellamy Road so low are 1) That race at Keenland last October really makes me wonder what he can do with horses near him.  2) The Wood produced not one Derby horse other than him. The  major preps including the winner produced the following # of Derby horses: Blue Grass 5, Arkansas 4, Santa Anita 4, Florida 2, Illinois 1, Wood 1.

On all figures, Bellamy Road ran the fastest of all these, he also has a top trainer, but he is not battle tested and will either win by the length of the stretch or not hit the board.  I'm guessing the latter-we'll know on Saturday.

328880[/snapback]

 

 

As they stated during the Derby post draw show yesterday on ESPN, Bellamy Road has never shown he could pass horses. He's always on the lead and trying to throttle his speed early. That will be impossible Saturday, plus he drew post 16 and must use some positional speed early.

I always cringe when I see a front running runaway winner going into the Triple Crown races or the Breeders Cup. Thats usually a losing style.

 

I'm just throwing darts with Greeleys Galaxy but I was working in Maryland in the 1980's, living 5 minutes from Laurel Race Cource. I saw Kent Desormeaux during his appreticeship and early years. The guy could bring 20-1 shots, with no previous form, flying in the stretch. He will be patient and have his horse in position for the stretch run. After stalking and destroying the field at the Illinois Derby at Hawthore, he breezed 4 fur. in 47 just a few days later. Talk about dead fit.

 

I'll go with the 15-1 shot and enjoy the ride.

[Albany,n.y.]

OJ is good friends with the owner of Greeley's Galaxy. He's in Kentucky already.

 

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.d...RTS08/505050464

[Mark VI]

OJ is good friends with the owner of Greeley's Galaxy.  He's in Kentucky already.

 

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.d...RTS08/505050464

328949[/snapback]

 

Thanks for the Buzzkill. I'm still playing him to win and place.

[tmk-nj]

I'm leaning towrds Bandini as well.....

 

Although come Sat I could change my mind!

 

You horse racing fans here ever do some racing games? Im in this one now called "Showdown". It's run by the NYRA and starts when a new meet starts. So one just started on Wed but if interested, watch out for future meets.\

 

Site: www.nyra.com

 

 

 

Here are my selections

 

The Contenders:

 

15 Bandini

Pletcher/Velasquez duo is set to win the Derby by sitting slightly off a hot pace up front and firing as he did in the Blue Grass.  The Blue Grass is a hidden good race as both Ragozin and Thorograph sheet #s are higher relative to the Beyers than other races.  Bandini’s Blue Grass got a 1.1 lower Thorograph than Afleet Alex’s  Arkansas Derby #.  While some feel he will bounce, since he had a 6.4 forward move from a prior top of 3.3, he has never regressed in any of his 5 starts. Even though the Blue Grass looks slow, it not only was fast, but it was the race that drew the toughest field of the final preps, 4 of the 6 horses that Bandini beat were winners of graded stakes in their race prior to the Blue Grass.  Also, he is one of only one of 3 horses in this race with 3 1 1/8th  races-a solid foundation leading up to this race.  As solid a horse as one can find in this field of 20, and my top selection.

 

11 High Fly 

5 for 6 lifetime, including a victory over my top choice.  Bailey rides in what might be his last Derby.  He’s the best of the Zito horses, although he doesn’t have the lofty figures of Bellamy Road.  Should sit a good trip with a running style similar to Bandini’s.  Another with a good foundation of 3 straight 1 1/8th races. 

 

12 Afleet Alex 

At one point he was my first choice until I found out Bandini had a higher sheet #.  Looked impressive in the Arkansas Derby, but who did he beat?  The 2nd and 3rd horses are 20/1 & 50/1 ML here.  He has a solid foundation with a 6 race 2yo season and 3 preps this year.  However, his 1st prep was only a 6f sprint and his 2nd prep was a poor race when he had a lung infection.  Biggest negative is his jockey, Jeremy Rose, who was responsible for his Breeder’s Cup defeat by Wilko last year and almost blew the Hopeful with a bad ride last summer.  There’s no room for error in the Derby, where Afleet Alex will have to negotiate a come from behind trip. You can expect Rose to cost this horse at least a length or 2 somewhere in this race.  Any comparison to last year’s winning rider, Stew Elliott, is unfounded, since Rose has had at least 2 bad rides on this horse already.  Still, he’s one of the best horses in the race and if Rose rides the race of his life, he could make it to the top. 

 

4 Noble Causeway

Another Zito horse who ran 2nd to stablemate High Fly in the Florida Derby.  Only horses to beat him this year are Bandini & High Fly.  Nothing to really knock him.  He’s the 3rd horse with the last 3 races at 1 1/8th.  He has a decent shot to run in the superfecta and might even run 2nd or 3rd.  It’s tough to see him winning this but he could be a Travers horse. 

 

16 Bellamy Road 

He’s the favorite off his Wood Memorial blowout, earning a lofty 120 Beyer and a negative 5 on the Thorograph Sheets.  I’m not concerned about a bounce-his –0.1 going into the Wood shows he has developed into a fast horse since Zito took over, but his running style is why I can’t put him any better than 4th.  With the exception of his 1st race, a 6f sprint, he has always gone right to the lead.  This year he’s gotten loose on the lead in both his races and ran like a wild horse.  Well this time he will be getting pressured every step of the way, and I doubt he can handle it.  If he doesn’t go for the lead, he may get totally discouraged running behind horses in a huge field.  His two distance races as a 2 yo send the alarms ringing on this one.  In the MGD Cradle he lost 3 ¼ lengths in the stretch of a 1 1/16th race.  Worse was his Breeder’s Futurity at Keenland last October, where he went for the lead, weakened, and finished 7th, 12 lengths behind.  After that race George Steinbrenner fired Michael Dickenson and replaced him with Nick Zito, who is 2/2 with him-both blow out victories.  Another negative is he only has 2 races this year, something that hasn’t worked well for past  Derby entrants. 

 

9 Greeley’s Galaxy

Tomlinson indicates he’s bred for it, waiting for a OTB Channel Breeding # on Saturday.  Jumped up from a prior top of 4.3 to a –2 Thorograph sheet # in blowout win in the Illinois Derby.  Another one who hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence, but he’s one of only 4 with a negative sheet #.  He might be the toughest horse in this race for me to figure. 

 

Best of the rest, could be in the superfecta:

 

7 Flower Alley

Tomlinson breeding figure is really different than OTB Channel Breeding here.  Finished way behind Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby, and really hasn’t beaten anything of quality.  If you trust the OTB Channel Breeding #, he could make it up for 4th.   

 

14 Wilko

Tomlinson & doseage say no, OTB Channel Breeding says he has the best distance pedigree in the race.  Here’s a horse who, off his Beyers looks like he’s failed to progress as a 3yo.  Has only 2 races this year & may still not be ready to fire his best race.  He’s a total unknown on the surface, since he has trained at Hollywood for this. Could finish as high as 3rd, could finish last. 

 

2 Andromeda’s Hero

If the front runners all collapse, he could suck up for 3rd or 4th.  More likely to finish 9th, where I have him. 

 

Forget about them (in no particular order):

 

13 Spanish Chestnut  Best pick for last place. He’ll be 1st early, last late.

1 Sort It Out Too slow & outclassed

17 Don’t Get Mad no comment . 

19 Going Wild–recent form bad

2 Closing Argument Too slow.

10 Giacomo–Breeding says no, eligible for nw1 other than

5 Coin Silver  Probably the 2nd best of this no chance bunch. 

8 Greater Good  Beyers say he’s way too slow.

6 High Limit–Pace says no, better than most of these losers

20 Buzzards Bay– Worst post, bad 1 ¼ breeding.  2nd last to SC

3 Sun King– Best form of this bunch, OTB Channel Breeding # says no way.

328716[/snapback]

[plenzmd1]

Two reasons I have Bellamy Road so low are 1) That race at Keenland last October really makes me wonder what he can do with horses near him.  2) The Wood produced not one Derby horse other than him. The  major preps including the winner produced the following # of Derby horses: Blue Grass 5, Arkansas 4, Santa Anita 4, Florida 2, Illinois 1, Wood 1.

On all figures, Bellamy Road ran the fastest of all these, he also has a top trainer, but he is not battle tested and will either win by the length of the stretch or not hit the board.  I'm guessing the latter-we'll know on Saturday.

328880[/snapback]

 

Excellant analysis, and I thank you for your posts.

 

I think you are dead on about the part of winning big, or being out of it. I still just have a gut this horse is going to be something special. Visually, he looks like one of the most impressive horses I have seen. I will say I am the type of better(usually kills me) that is laways looking for reasons why the chalk will lose. I just do not see it here. I like the 16 hole with his speed. I am going to bet a derby favorite for the first time in my life!!!!!!

 

In trems of afleet , I too have my reservations about Rose. But being as how I consider MD my home track(really Laurel) I think i will also do a small exacta box of#3 Sun King(Edgar Parado), #6 High Limit(Ramon Dominquez), #9 Greeley Galaxy(Kent Desomeax), and #12 Afleet Alex( Afleet Alex), as they all have cut their teeth as riders at the MD tracks.

 

As`an aside, if you like or liked MD `racing, be prepared to say goodbye soon. They just cannot compete with all the slot parlours around them. Out of state handle was off over 30% last meet. Truly a shame for those of us who remember with fondness old man DeFrancis . Man knew how to run a track and most impotantly how to treat his customers.

[plenzmd1]

Okay, off to the OTB for me. Bellamy looks like he is 5-2 right now. Looks like easy pickings to me . Another beyer article for you Beyer fans.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...5050501663.html

[Wacka]

Has stevestojan already registered www.(insert horse's name here)winsthe triplecrown.com ?

[stuckincincy]

Has stevestojan already registered www.(insert horse's name here)winsthe triplecrown.com ?

330659[/snapback]

 

Not to my knowledge. I can't say for sure, but it's looking like he's getting an eyeful of the economic world as it is, and youthful capriciousness is falling away. Good stuff. As well as seemingly not having unlimited net access.

 

Steve is an ok fellow - hope it works out well for him.

 

YMMV.

[ATBNG]

OJ is good friends with the owner of Greeley's Galaxy.  He's in Kentucky already.

 

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.d...RTS08/505050464

328949[/snapback]

 

Albany - great stuff. Thanks for the well analyzed post (the long one).

 

I'm absolutely fascinated by this race. I also can't wait to see how Bellamy handles the early pace. It seems like most handicappers that I respect are going elsewhere figuring the public is going to pound Bellamy down way too far. I don't think he's going to be able to handle the adversity either.

 

I'm on the High Fly bandwagon myself. Horse just flat out gets the job done, and his price is looking like it will be very attractive come tomorrow. I didn't think High Fly had to do too much to beat Bandini in the FOY. The horse seems to have versatile speed, and he has the best jockey around to take advantage of that. If High Fly has longer odds than Bandini, then I think the bettors are making a mistake just because of Bandini's breeding + connections.

[Albany,n.y.]

Here's my final order of finish for the top 6 after mulling things over the past 2 days:

 

Bandini

Afleet Alex

Wilko

High Fly

Bellamy Road

Noble Causeway

 

I moved Afleet Alex up because his speed #s are so much more consistent than the rest & Wilko because he ran back to his top 2 year old # in his last & horses like this can have an explosive forward move.

[rastabillz]

My picks are:

 

Bellamy Road

Afleet Alex

Sun King

Wilco

 

Looks like I'm King of chalk this race.

 

Albany and Mark you raise a a good point about Bellamy being a front runner who has not faced adversity. However, a speed figure of 120 is simply astronomical and to me indicates this horese is something special. I usually loath betting such a heavy favorite.

 

Mark, I hope Greely Gallaxy drops to 30-1 and if Bellamy can't do it, I will be rooting for horse to pull out the upset. BTW no unraced 2 year old horse has won the Derby since 1882!

[gmac17]

You guys ever been to the Derby? It's a great time, the whole city waits the entire year for derby week.

 

I hit OTB in NYC this PM to place my TRI. Might be one of the most depressing places on earth.....

[OGTEleven]

As a general rule I shy away from the favorite because of the nature of the Derby. It is still early in the year and not all of the cards are on the table yet. Some horses have great preps coming in but can't follow through. This years favorite, Bellamy Roaad, had an unreal Wood Memorial. If he wins tomorrow I won't be surprised but I'm going against him in search of odds and on worries that his running style/breeding aren't a perfect match for 1-1/4.

 

The horses I strongly considered after reviewing the race were:

 

Noble Causeway 12-1

High Fly 8-1

Afleet Alex 9/2

Bandini 6-1

Bellamy Road 5/2

Don't Get Mad 30-1

High Limit 12-1

 

There were others that I couldn't totally throw out like Andromeda's Hero, Wilko and Sun King. You can't have them all though.

 

From that batch of horses I compared running styles, how they are coming up to the race and breeding.

 

I'm going with High Limit. I like how he is coming up to the race. He did not leave it all on the track against Bandini last time and is trainig well at Churchill. I like his breeding a lot, but I don't really love it at 1-1/4. I think he will go off at better than 12-1.

 

For my second tier (exacta horses) I've got Bellamy Road and Don't Get Mad. Bellamy Road might not even be a value underneath but I think I need to use him. I would almost never even consider a horse coming out of the Derby Trial but Don't Get Mad really needed the race and ran big. He is a dead closer so he could have traffic problems but the race sets up as one in which there will be many horses easily passed in the lane. Even though it isn't common opinion, I think he's bred to run all day.

 

Afleet Alex could run some/all of them down but has questionable breeding and connections

 

High Fly ran a big race in the Fla derby and looks like he has quality but needs lot to break his way

 

Noble Causeway is improving and dangerous

 

Bandini is tough to criticize but has been rank at times and this is usually not the place for horses with those tendencies.

 

All just my opinion of course.

[Mark VI]

Mark, I hope Greely Gallaxy drops to 30-1 and if Bellamy can't do it, I will be rooting for horse to pull out the upset. BTW no unraced 2 year old horse has won the Derby since 1882! 

330828[/snapback]

 

Actually, it's 1918. He has 4 lifetime races with 3 wins. His Illinois Derby win was so impressive and hunch bets have always been my biggest winners. Rarely ever bet chalks. I haven't bet a horse in many months but I'll indulge today.

I'll be driving the extra 10 minutes to Buffalo Raceway this morning to make my bet. They pay track odds and I avoid the massive OTB takeout,if my miracle bet comes in ( betting to win and place ) . Greeleys Galaxys' current odds are 25-1. I'd much rather lose betting a longshot ( and I probably will )

 

Good luck to all .

[rastabillz]

I'd much rather lose betting a longshot ( and I probably will ) 

 

Good luck to all .

330919[/snapback]

 

 

Good luck Mark. I might ask my dad to place a $2 exacta box of Sun King and Greely just for the hell of it!