Sturgis COVID-19 Superspreader Event

[SectionC3]

This is breathtaking if true.  There is no bound to the selfishness of the anti-mask crowd. 

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/did-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-really-infect-250000-people?ref=home

[WEATHER DOT COM]

This is the type of data Rule #2 requires. Great post.

 

The data regarding Sturgis showed that the number of pings by people from outside the community increased by 92.5 percent compared to a two-week period prior to the rally. The crowd there happened to peak on Aug. 8, the night Smash Mouth played and lead singer Steve Harwell imparted from the stage the same “f*ck COVID” message offered by T-shirts a number of  people in the crowd were wearing. 

The study’s subsequent data indicates that the rally increased COVID-19 infection in Meade County by 6.3 to 6.9 cases per 1,000 of the population. Infections in South Dakota were calculated to have risen by up to 3.9 cases per 1,000 as a result of the rally. 

“This represents an increase of over 35 percent relative to the 9.7 cases per 1,000 population in South Dakota on July 31, 2020,” the study noted.

 The study further found that the rally caused COVID-19 infections to rise by 10.7 percent in counties with the highest number of Sturgis attendees.  The counties with few attendees were also factored in. The final tally was astonishing, but deemed plausible by the experts: 266,796 coronavirus infections.

“Or 19 percent of 1.4 million new cases,” the study says.

However accurate the number of COVID-19 infections caused by the rally may or may not be, nobody should contest the team’s ultimate goal concerning those of us who still shun masks and ignore social distancing.

[GG]

7 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

This is breathtaking if true.  There is no bound to the selfishness of the anti-mask crowd. 

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/did-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-really-infect-250000-people?ref=home

 

It's not breathtaking, because it's not true.

 

Boy, you must love to see your name starting random thread on topics already discussed.  And you think you're not part of the problem?

[WEATHER DOT COM]

1 minute ago, GG said:

 

It's not breathtaking, because it's not true.

 

Boy, you must love to see your name starting random thread on topics already discussed.  And you think you're not part of the problem?

 

It's a study. Do you have a (Rule #2) link or statistic to dispute it?

 

The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19” from the Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies at San Diego State University

[GG]

Just now, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

It's a study. Do you have a (Rule #2) link or statistic to dispute it?

 

The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19” from the Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies at San Diego State University

 

I could have sworn that you said you were leaving?

 

How about reading the the Covid thread for the response?

[WEATHER DOT COM]

https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13670/the-contagion-externality-of-a-superspreading-event-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-and-covid-19

 

Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the "highest risk" for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 "super-spreader." This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that (i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and (ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell. Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates). We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion.

[SectionC3]

36 minutes ago, GG said:

 

It's not breathtaking, because it's not true.

 

Boy, you must love to see your name starting random thread on topics already discussed.  And you think you're not part of the problem?

 

I also invoke Rule #2 here.  Please show your work.  Otherwise, your claim of hoax will be considered just another hoax.  Thank you. 

[Unforgiven]

blm covid 19 is mostly peaceful

[Big Blitz]

The only thing breathtaking about this fake story is that Smash Mouth performed at Sturgis. 

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by Big Blitz

[GG]

5 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

I also invoke Rule #2 here.  Please show your work.  Otherwise, your claim of hoax will be considered just another hoax.  Thank you. 

 

Do your own homework.  It's in the Covid thread.  I'm done indulging your Lamps.

[SectionC3]

5 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Do your own homework.  It's in the Covid thread.  I'm done indulging your Lamps.

 

Sorry, my friend.   This is a Rule #2 situation.  I’ll have to assume that if you have time to post your hoaxy nonsense in this thread, you also have time to post your relevant Rule #2 information here.  The fact that you haven’t posted your Rule #2 information, in spite of the fact that you responded in the thread after the Rule #2 request was made, leads me to believe that you tried to perpetrate another hoax and simply cannot satisfy Rule #2.  

 

Also, on the Rule #2 front, when I derisively call you the intellectual standard bearer of the alt-wrong, please refer to this post as my Rule #2 evidence.  Thank you. 

6 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

The only thing breathtaking about this fake story is that Smash Mouth performed at Sturgis. 

 

I wouldn’t have paid $1 to hear Smash Mouth play.  But $12.2 billion in taxpayer funds to hear All Star for the umpteenth time?  Not worth it at all.  

Edited September 9, 2020 by SectionC3

[GG]

1 minute ago, SectionC3 said:

 

Sorry, my friend.   This is a Rule #2 situation.  I’ll have to assume that if you have time to post your hoaxy nonsense in this thread, you also have time to post your relevant Rule #2 information here.  The fact that you haven’t posted your Rule #2 information, in spite of the fact that you responded in the thread after the Rule #2 request was made, leads me to believe that you tried to perpetrate another hoax and simply cannot satisfy Rule #2.  

 

Also, on the Rule #2 front, when I derisively call you the intellectual standard bearer of the alt-wrong, please refer to this post as my Rule #2 evidence.  Thank you. 

I wouldn’t have paid $1 to hear Smash Mouth play.  But $12.2 billion in taxpayer funds to hear All Star for the umpteenth time?  Not worth it at all.  

 

***** off with your rules.  Not your site.  Speaking of, there are rules here that frown upon LAMPs on topics that are already being discussed.

 

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

***** off with your rules.  Not your site.  Speaking of, there are rules here that frown upon LAMPs on topics that are already being discussed.

 

This is an automated response.  Please stop feeding the trolls.  

[SectionC3]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

***** off with your rules.  Not your site.  Speaking of, there are rules here that frown upon LAMPs on topics that are already being discussed.

 

 

Got it.  You can’t satisfy Rule #2.  We know. 

 

Also, I’m putting in a rule #2 request with respect to your contention that there are “rules” that frown upon the discussion of this topic.  Last I checked, the spread of Sturgis-related COVID-19 cases to the extent indicated in the article is breaking news.  I believe this event, unique for both its size and the depth of its selfishness, deserves its own spotlight.  Hence my exercise of discretion in creating a new thread to address this new and important topic.  

 

But let’s keep our eyes on the prize.  You have two outstanding Rule #2 requests that you should satisfy.  Time to get to work, sir!

[GG]

1 minute ago, SectionC3 said:

 

Got it.  You can’t satisfy Rule #2.  We know. 

 

Also, I’m putting in a rule #2 request with respect to your contention that there are “rules” that frown upon the discussion of this topic.  Last I checked, the spread of Sturgis-related COVID-19 cases to the extent indicated in the article is breaking news.  I believe this event, unique for both its size and the depth of its selfishness, deserves its own spotlight.  Hence my exercise of discretion in creating a new thread to address this new and important topic.  

 

But let’s keep our eyes on the prize.  You have two outstanding Rule #2 requests that you should satisfy.  Time to get to work, sir!

 

Lazy and dishonest.  The analysis was done.

 

I feel bad for your clients.

[SectionC3]

Just now, GG said:

 

Lazy and dishonest.  The analysis was done.

 

I feel bad for your clients.

I’m gonna Rule #2 that analysis.  Now it’s three Rule #2 requests.  Thank you in advance for your anticipated cooperation. 

[meazza]

Just now, GG said:

 

Lazy and dishonest.  The analysis was done.

 

I feel bad for your clients.

This is an automated response. Please don’t feed the trolls.

[US Egg]

1 hour ago, SectionC3 said:

This is breathtaking if true.  There is no bound to the selfishness of the anti-mask crowd. 

[Doc]

Hoax.

[WEATHER DOT COM]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Because the abstract ignored the totality of the cases in the US and hypothetically extrapolated their modeled numbers, which do not correlate to the actual reported case trends.   Sturgis probably contributed to 7k-10k additional cases, which is nowhere near 250k or $12.5 billion in costs, since the vast majority of infected people are asymptomatic who do not require any medical intervention.  

 

If you are right, which I'll never know because you probably won't show your math, 7k-10k additional cases in order to show off one's hog and throw devil horns at Smash Mouth is still stupid.

 

And that's the point

[ziltoid]

So motorcycles are worse than boats, right? It’s been a busy week of shaming, I can’t keep up.

[GG]

Just now, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

If you are right, which I'll never know because you probably won't show your math, 7k-10k additional cases in order to show off one's hog and throw devil horns at Smash Mouth is still stupid.

 

And that's the point

 

I discussed the math with the changes in the trendlines.  The two case plateaus add up to those numbers.  The additional cases did not lead to a spike in hospitalizations and deaths, so in the end, it was a positive development to get closer to herd immunity, without getting a lot of people sick or die.   A normal person would be celebrating this outcome.  But not the grave dance brigade .