Future Talk - Living in a COVID world once it dies down

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 hours ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I want to pontificate about the future.  I was going to drop this in the COVID thread, but I think it needs to breathe on it's own. 

 

The current happenings in the US are pretty much set to course, and there isn't much that will change now.  We know how CA, TX, and FL will go.  Bad, but not as bad as NYC in March/April.

 

What most people are not discussing right now is a world where covid is everywhere and a vaccine never appears.  Or it takes 2 years for the vaccine to appear (end of 2021).  These are highly probable outcomes.  I really want to hear what everyone thinks we should do in this scenario, once most/all of the nation gets to a low level like NY is currently running at?  I would guess that should take the rest of this calendar year for most "hot" states to cool down.

 

Here is what I can gather the lawmakers will mandate:

• Facemasks for everyone where you can't social distance.  See, masks worked (when it may be herd immunity doing all the work?)
• Restaurants at 50% indoors.  Less, if any, dining during wintertime.
• Bars are probably going to get shut down permanently, soon.  Obvious super spreader locations.
• No in-person school instruction.  Too dangerous.
• No large gatherings.  Way too dangerous.
• No playing of "contact" sports for most age groups - HS's, Colleges, and recreational.  Too dangerous.

Basically where we've been treading water for the past month or so in NY.  I just don't see how you can justify changing anything above.  Only a vaccine changes the playing field, and only after multiple years of vaccine administration to adequately distribute and study it's effects.

 

Leaving the politics out of it (big ask for you PPP'ers), what say you?

the upside is that we’ve evolved about 5-10 years of virtualization in a few months.   Hopefully a number of these new conveniences are here to stay!

 

[Azalin]

3 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  It boils down if AI will improve the bottomline of a business then that business will acquire it.  I don't see a barrier.  Business people are about profit and if they can improve profit then they will implement whatever is needed.  If factory robots were available such as what automobile manufacturers use today in the 19th Century then the Captains of Industry such as Carnegie, McCormick, etc. would have used them to replace human labor.  I doubt that most of the business world ever sweat the loss of human labor when automation pushed it out the door.

 

I'm not attempting to discuss the merits or application of AI into our society. My initial question (to Unforgiven) remains unanswered; he said "I also think this is the big moment where they slip in AI and replace a humongous amount of workers while no one is looking."

 

I'm asking for clarification of that statement. 

[123719bwiqrb]

8 hours ago, Azalin said:

 

I'm not attempting to discuss the merits or application of AI into our society. My initial question (to Unforgiven) remains unanswered; he said "I also think this is the big moment where they slip in AI and replace a humongous amount of workers while no one is looking."

 

I'm asking for clarification of that statement. 

I'd expect the AI to appear first in industries that never shut down, but are experiencing pain due to remote workers, sick workers, etc.  A meat packing plant would be a good example - if they lost a bunch of productivity this year due to the virus, and they continue to get ~3 month reinfections for the foreseeable future, then I would expect a machine to carve up the quarters of a cow/pig would appear real soon.  If they lose $1MM a quarter, the 6-sigma productivity engineers could justify that AI robot pet project they've been sitting on but could never cost justify before.

 

I suspect there are many industries out that have been looking to do this, and now can justify the cost.

[fansince88]

12 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  Law, medicine, engineering, etc..  Why pay an employee a six figure salary for decades on end when most likely you will be able to purchase AI for considerably less.  I don't see one company holding patents to the point where they can hold the world hostage price-wise and patents are not a forever thing.  For a dated show Buck Rodgers in the 25th Century (1979) pointed to the possibility of AI holding important positions in society.

I liked Duck Dodgers of the 24th and a half century better. 

[Gary M]

16 hours ago, shoshin said:

. Maybe some more hand-washing.

 

Never a bad thing

13 hours ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

  That doesn't make sense to me.  Is TDS that strong?

 

Yes

[Azalin]

5 hours ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I'd expect the AI to appear first in industries that never shut down, but are experiencing pain due to remote workers, sick workers, etc.  A meat packing plant would be a good example - if they lost a bunch of productivity this year due to the virus, and they continue to get ~3 month reinfections for the foreseeable future, then I would expect a machine to carve up the quarters of a cow/pig would appear real soon.  If they lose $1MM a quarter, the 6-sigma productivity engineers could justify that AI robot pet project they've been sitting on but could never cost justify before.

 

I suspect there are many industries out that have been looking to do this, and now can justify the cost.

 

I should probably start an AI thread (or find and resurrect the old thread) because I don't mean to derail this one. That said, what you describe is already happening , and I honestly do not see how COVID will influence it significantly either way. 

[Reality Check]

 

The global economy is wrecked.

 

I won't miss it.

[123719bwiqrb]

I'm starting to freak out about mandatory vaccines.  Where does everyone see this going?

 

I doubt the voluntary vaccine angle will work because of the rules as constructed today around the coronabug.  Today you can be a carrier but be asymptomatic (who knows if this is actually true).  So you get the vaccine and now are immune to suffering a bad illness/death.  But what if you can still can be an asymptomatic carrier, like the (guesstimate) 40-60% of the population today?  The only way the vaccine approach works is if everyone gets the vaccine.  100% compliance.

 

Now what happens if you refuse the vaccine?  Make life tough for those people that don't want to risk future autoimmune diseases?  No entry into stores, businesses, or airports unless you have your vaccine mark?  Round them up and make them all live in Florida?  I kid.

 

I am not going to be in the first round of vaccinated humans.  Front line workers and the elderly will get it first.  But how do you see this going down once they all get it?

[Koko78]

56 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I'm starting to freak out about mandatory vaccines.  Where does everyone see this going?

 

I doubt the voluntary vaccine angle will work because of the rules as constructed today around the coronabug.  Today you can be a carrier but be asymptomatic (who knows if this is actually true).  So you get the vaccine and now are immune to suffering a bad illness/death.  But what if you can still can be an asymptomatic carrier, like the (guesstimate) 40-60% of the population today?  The only way the vaccine approach works is if everyone gets the vaccine.  100% compliance.

 

Now what happens if you refuse the vaccine?  Make life tough for those people that don't want to risk future autoimmune diseases?  No entry into stores, businesses, or airports unless you have your vaccine mark?  Round them up and make them all live in Florida?  I kid.

 

I am not going to be in the first round of vaccinated humans.  Front line workers and the elderly will get it first.  But how do you see this going down once they all get it?

 

I'm sure they'll just make the unvaccinated sew yellow stars into their clothing, so that everyone knows to avoid them.

[3rdnlng]

7 hours ago, Koko78 said:

 

I'm sure they'll just make the unvaccinated sew yellow stars into their clothing, so that everyone knows to avoid them.

I thought the mark of the beast was going to be a little more permanent than a piece of cloth. 

[Westside]

If biden wins, the "pandemic" will be over by the end of the year. If Trump wins, it will last at least four more years.