coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, BillsEnthusiast said: But if Biden takes even 10-20% of those NPA votes, he's right back in the lead comfortably. Plus, we don't know if all GOP voters actually voted for Trump or if they were Lincoln Project-style republicans. Again, the only way you can get there is if you assume massive numbers of Rs are going to vote D. That's not how it works. Not when he was breaking records for primary turnout for an incumbent. And Is are not breaking for Biden. You've been had. 1 minute ago, Backintheday544 said: you must have missed the counties that aren’t counted. A bunch of small ones of and Miami that Clinton won by 290,000 votes. Keep dreaming. Florida was gone on Saturday for your team. Texas was gone last month. Georgia was never in play, nor was Iowa. They conned you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, coltrane34 said: Again, the only way you can get there is if you assume massive numbers of Rs are going to vote D. That's not how it works. Not when he was breaking records for primary turnout for an incumbent. And Is are not breaking for Biden. You've been had. Keep dreaming. Florida was gone on Saturday for your team. Texas was gone last month. Georgia was never in play, nor was Iowa. They conned you all. No, we are looking at the NPA independent voter numbers. Polls indicate that independent voters have a 3-1 lead for Biden. Here's a trend in Nevada that is a good example of what I am talking about: Edited November 3, 2020 by BillsEnthusiast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, BillsEnthusiast said: No, we are looking at the NPA independent voter numbers. Polls indicate that independent voters have a 3-1 lead for Biden. Polls are wrong. They're lies. Independents are breaking 3:1 for Trump in PA. If they're doing that in PA there's no way they're not doing that in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, coltrane34 said: Polls are wrong. They're lies. Independents are breaking 3:1 for Trump in PA. If they're doing that in PA there's no way they're not doing that in FL. "Polls are wrong unless they are right for Trump in which case they're right" You can't just cherry pick what stats you want to listen to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, BillsEnthusiast said: "Polls are wrong unless they are right for Trump in which case they're right" You can't just cherry pick what stats you want to listen to. It's not cherry picking. There are more of these than the inverse: Black and brown men are voting for Trump in historic numbers for a GOP candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, coltrane34 said: It's not cherry picking. I mean of course someone like Ned will say that. He's a hardcore MAGA type. This guy has a good take, and he's fairly conservative: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, BillsEnthusiast said: I mean of course someone like Ned will say that. He's a hardcore MAGA type. This guy has a good take, and he's fairly conservative: Baris is the one who's saying 3:1 breaks for Is in PA. He's the best in the business and he says Trump's going to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, coltrane34 said: Baris is the one who's saying 3:1 breaks for Is in PA. He's the best in the business and he says Trump's going to win. So NOW polls are accurate? Even Rasmussen had Biden up in Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Bye AZ. They're not turning out in these numbers for Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, coltrane34 said: Bye AZ. They're not turning out in these numbers for Joe. Neither of these results are unexpected. Everyone predicted a high GOP turnout early in the day on in-person voting. It's not some kind of "gotcha" that you think it is. By the way, if Colorado goes red I'll eat my shoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, BillsEnthusiast said: Neither of these results are unexpected. Everyone predicted a high GOP turnout early in the day on in-person voting. It's not some kind of "gotcha" that you think it is. By the way, if Colorado goes red I'll eat my shoe. CO won't go red. It'll just be closer than expected. Same with NY and CA. Add those "closer than expected" blue states together and you'll see Trump take a serious run at the popular vote. And it is a gotcha, because Nate Silver has AZ being blue. He's wrong. Without AZ and FL, Biden has to sweep the rust belt to have a path to 270. Joe's pathway just narrowed to one. Trump's just expanded. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, coltrane34 said: CO won't go red. It'll just be closer than expected. Same with NY and CA. Add those "closer than expected" blue states together and you'll see Trump take a serious run at the popular vote. And it is a gotcha, because Nate Silver has AZ being blue. He's wrong. Without AZ and FL, Biden has to sweep the rust belt to have a path to 270. Joe's pathway just narrowed to one. Trump's just expanded. Again, you're extrapolating results from demographic data. We don't know who voted for who, so you're just spitballing here. If you must do it, here are some different results: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, BillsEnthusiast said: Again, you're extrapolating results from demographic data. We don't know who voted for who, so you're just spitballing here. If you must do it, here are some different results: You have to assume every R votes R and every D votes D and split Is. That's the only honest way to do it. Predicting crossover is folly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, coltrane34 said: You have to assume every R votes R and every D votes D and split Is. That's the only honest way to do it. Predicting crossover is folly. Can you give me any twitter accounts that aren't from MAGA land? And that's right which is why we look at NPA demographics and the polls from there. PS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said: Can you give me any twitter accounts that aren't from MAGA land? And that's right which is why we look at NPA demographics and the polls from there. It's election day. The whole country is MAGA land today, sorry. I'm just giving you the chance to be a few hours ahead of the curve so you can spare yourself some shock and surprise. The media and national polling industry has been gaslighting you for over a year now. They're the ones you will be mad at later tonight or tomorrow. Again, Wasserman is lying through his teeth. He's not a good analyst, he's a fraud: Edited November 3, 2020 by coltrane34 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, coltrane34 said: It's election day. The whole country is MAGA land today, sorry. I'm just giving you the chance to be a few hours ahead of the curve so you can spare yourself some shock and surprise. The media and national polling industry has been gaslighting you for over a year now. They're the ones you will be mad at later tonight or tomorrow. Not in Miami-Dade apparently. Their numbers just came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, BillsEnthusiast said: Not in Miami-Dade apparently. Their numbers just came out. Miami Dade Hispanic vote is going for Trump. That's what these numbers aren't showing. Just watch... This isn't what someone who's winning says... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 @BillsEnthusiast told you It's only going to become more evident Florida is gone. It was gone awhile ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, coltrane34 said: @BillsEnthusiast told you It's only going to become more evident Florida is gone. It was gone awhile ago. Give me a reputable national figure saying this and I'll believe you. Until the actual results come out at 7 p.m., we will have no idea. 9 minutes ago, coltrane34 said: This isn't what someone who's winning says... Funny how you ignored Trump saying "it was an honor" earlier but this somehow is a gotcha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, BillsEnthusiast said: Give me a reputable national figure saying this and I'll believe you. Until the actual results come out at 7 p.m., we will have no idea. Reputable by whose definition? The media? Who got all of 2016 wrong? Nate Silver who's a proven fraud? Just plug your ears and wait for your media masters to tell you what to think I guess... that's one way to go about today Dems still got tricks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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