PFF's QB Annual Report on Allen

[BigBillsFan]

On 1/28/2020 at 7:10 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's my understanding, although it would depend maybe on just where it is - closer to the knees might be a drop I guess? 

 

They score a drop as something that should be catchable with "ordinary effort" not by leaping, dropping to the turf, or laying out.  I was just looking to see if I could find the criteria quickly and I didn't, but it's something like it it hits (or could hit) both hands in a rectangle roughly between just over the receiver's head to his thighs or knees, and a bit wider than his body. 

 

If the receiver jumps two feet in the air and it hits both fully extended hands, it's a catchable ball, but it's not a drop.

 

I've read that too. I'm curious to know if it's a static area they consider catchable. I saw a few passes the board was screaming DROP that very few WRs could catch, and even then not consistently. Knox and Singletary are the only blatantly violators throughout the season.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a minor correction here, Frankish:  The drop percentage goes off the targets, not after the adjustment for "catchable balls".

 

Pro-football-reference, which uses the NFL next gen stats as far as I know, credits Knox with 10 drops, 20% of his 50 targets.

So if we posit he had about 37-38 catchable balls, there's some "good news/bad news":

-the good news is that he's getting his hands on pretty much everything catchable that comes his way, and could be on track to become that 75-80% catch % TE we need

-the bad news is it means the actual % of catchable balls he dropped could be more like 25%.

 

Beasley had almost as much in YAC (4.9 vs 5.1).  McKenzie had more, but I believe that's attributable to the shovel-passes on the successful jet sweeps.

Thanks. PFF’s methodology is kind of a mystery to me since I’m not a subscriber. As for YAC, I’m probably over-interpreting that one beast mode (and it was only one) play. So maybe it’s better to say “has more YAC potential than Allen’s other WR/TE targets.”  Bottom line: I say he had a promising rookie season, and he’s bought himself at least a year to show the the drops can be corrected. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Thanks. PFF’s methodology is kind of a mystery to me since I’m not a subscriber. As for YAC, I’m probably over-interpreting that one beast mode (and it was only one) play. So maybe it’s better to say “has more YAC potential than Allen’s other WR/TE targets.”  Bottom line: I say he had a promising rookie season, and he’s bought himself at least a year to show the the drops can be corrected. 

 

Oh, for sure he gets time to show what he can do.  I think the question is just how much rent money do we bet that he'll take a big step?  Do we count on it?  Is Kroft enough of a backup plan?  Do we make a push for a FA?

 

The topic here is PFF, but to be clear, I'm talking pro-football-reference, which is free, and has nothing to do with PFF as far as I know.