PFT: NFL Teams are Getting Smarter & Better on Fourth Downs

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NFL Teams are Getting Smarter and Better on Fourth Downs

 

One of the hallmarks of last year’s Super Bowl champion Eagles was their aggressiveness on fourth downs: Eagles coach Doug Pederson listened to the analytics experts who have been saying for years that teams should go for it on fourth down more often, and the result was Philadelphia leading the league in fourth-down conversion and winning the title.

 

The NFL is a copycat league, so it’s no surprise that this year, more teams are getting smarter about going for it on fourth down — and better at converting when they do go for it.

 

In 2017, NFL games averaged 1.89 fourth-down attempts per game, and offenses picked up the first down on 46.4 percent of fourth-down attempts. So far this year, NFL games are averaging 2.0 fourth-down attempts per game, and offenses are successful on 62.5 percent of fourth-down attempts.

 

In other words, NFL teams are getting a little more aggressive about going for it — and a lot better at picking up the first down when they do go for it. That indicates that offenses are spending more time installing fourth-down plays, and getting smarter about calling them at the right time.

 

 

[mannc]

Still a long way to go. Most coaches still don’t get it.

 

Maybe next they’ll get smarter and better about going for 2.

[Just Joshin']

You need to see more than 2 numbers to find a trend.  Going from 1.89 to 2 does not seem statistically significant.

 

The increase in success rate does indicate teams are getting better at play selection.  I suspect less runs into the line, more quick hit short passes.

[SoTier]

It's definitely a change.  It used to be that teams only went on fourth down and less than a yard or when they were desperate late in games.  That was a long standing tradition.  Now, it seems that there's at least one fourth down play in every game where it's longer yardage or the team has the lead and wants to keep it/extend it.  

 

How long it lasts and whether it becomes the new normal for the NFL depends upon whether teams that frequently go for first downs on fourth down continue to win games.

[The Frankish Reich]

26 minutes ago, SoTier said:

It's definitely a change.  It used to be that teams only went on fourth down and less than a yard or when they were desperate late in games.  That was a long standing tradition.  Now, it seems that there's at least one fourth down play in every game where it's longer yardage or the team has the lead and wants to keep it/extend it.  

 

How long it lasts and whether it becomes the new normal for the NFL depends upon whether teams that frequently go for first downs on fourth down continue to win games.

True, but it also depends on how quickly the bias in favor of going for it on 4th down becomes accepted among the TV commentator/newspaper/fan forum poster class. I do think we're at a tipping point here, much like a couple things we've seen in baseball over the last few years: the widespread acceptance of "radical" defensive shifts, and the new wisdom of going to your best reliever in the highest leverage situation, whether that pops up in the 6th inning (earlier in the playoffs) or in the 9th inning. Both ideas came from the analytics stat-heads. Both were around for a couple decades or more while gaining minimal traction with actual MLB coaches/managers. But when it happened, it happened fast. I sense the same thing with more aggressive 4th down decisionmaking happening right now, and I think it will be permanent.

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

True, but it also depends on how quickly the bias in favor of going for it on 4th down becomes accepted among the TV commentator/newspaper/fan forum poster class. I do think we're at a tipping point here, much like a couple things we've seen in baseball over the last few years: the widespread acceptance of "radical" defensive shifts, and the new wisdom of going to your best reliever in the highest leverage situation, whether that pops up in the 6th inning (earlier in the playoffs) or in the 9th inning. Both ideas came from the analytics stat-heads. Both were around for a couple decades or more while gaining minimal traction with actual MLB coaches/managers. But when it happened, it happened fast. I sense the same thing with more aggressive 4th down decisionmaking happening right now, and I think it will be permanent.

Interesting point. Until just recently, TV announcers have been completely brain-dead when it comes to going for it on fourth down, as if failing to settle for a 19 yard field goal is completely reckless, even though a failure to convert leaves your opponent on their own 1-yardline.  That finally seems to be changing.   

[The Frankish Reich]

15 minutes ago, mannc said:

Interesting point. Until just recently, TV announcers have been completely brain-dead when it comes to going for it on fourth down, as if failing to settle for a 19 yard field goal is completely reckless, even though a failure to convert leaves your opponent on their own 1-yardline.  That finally seems to be changing.   

Yep. It's actually becoming rare to hear comments like,  "And the Bills are taking a big risk by leaving the offense on the field instead of bringing the punting unit on" when it's 4th and 2 at the opponent's 45. I always found Cris Collinsworth pretty annoying as a color commentator, but he deserves some praise in leading the way in bringing a more analytical approach to standard in-game commentary. He'd probably criticize punting in this situation in most game circumstances now. Coaches no longer need to be scared of media backlash when they go for it and fail, and that's the key turning point.