Doc Brown Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 45 minutes ago, Mark80 said: The difference is that you have no recourse if you are not successful getting it down 1. You just lose the game. If you go for it down 8 and are not successful, then you have another opportunity to try again after the next score to tie it up and send it into overtime. First example: Team is down 24-23, miss the 2 point attempt at end of game, game is over. Second example: Team is down 24-16, they go for 2 and are not successful. They score again and are now down 24-22 and can now try another 2-pt conversion to tie it up. Yeah. That's why I was for it. Although, you have to look at your personnel and if you're a team that struggles in the red zone then you kick the extra point. If I was the Bills, I'd never go for two unless absolutely necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 33 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: The math is the same in my mind. You still need to complete a 2 pt conversion to win the game outright. If it's a 50% conversion rate when you're down 8 it's still a 50% conversion rate when you're down by 1. There's no added benefit to be gained from when you decide to go for the win. Besides, you HAVE increased your odds of winning in OT (and thus the game overall, obviously) by kicking the PAT down 8 because you retain the option of playing for overtime with another PAT if you so choose. That's a smaller % because it's W=%PAT*%OT(WIN) but it's not insignificant. You don't have 'no recourse', you still have the option of taking the higher % PAT instead of trying to win outright by 2pt conversion. You are comparing two different events as if they are the same, they are not. Let's agree the win % to go PAT on both and then go to OT is 50%. We know it's not, as you agree, but its close enough. Option A Going for a PAT on TD1 yields the following: Go for PAT on TD2 go to OT, 50% chance to win. OR go for 2PT conversion and the win now, again roughly 50% for arguments sake. Either way, you have a 50/50 shot at winning give or take if you to for PAT on TD1. Only possible outcome with 2TDs, no other points by other team, and 100% PAT conversion rate (even though we know that isn't the case). Also, discounting a potential tie. Option B Now, going for 2PT on TD1 still gives you that 50% chance that you got above to win. But it ALSO (not "or" as in above, but also) gives you the bonus opportunity to win when you miss that initial 2pt conversion that is not present in the previous scenario, option A. Here, on TD2 you can go for it again and have a 50% chance of sending it to overtime where you will have another 50% chance to win. By going for the 2pt only on TD2, you are not giving yourself that "second chance" that you could get if you missed it in this current scenario. This ends up yielding a 62.5% chance to win with our assumed numbers, not the 50% outlined above in A. I don't think I could explain it any further my man, you either get it or you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, Mark80 said: You are comparing two different events as if they are the same, they are not. Let's agree the win % to go PAT on both and then go to OT is 50%. We know it's not, as you agree, but its close enough. Option A Going for a PAT on TD1 yields the following: Go for PAT on TD2 go to OT, 50% chance to win. OR go for 2PT conversion and the win now, again roughly 50% for arguments sake. Either way, you have a 50/50 shot at winning give or take if you to for PAT on TD1. Only possible outcome with 2TDs, no other points by other team, and 100% PAT conversion rate (even though we know that isn't the case). Also, discounting a potential tie. Option B Now, going for 2PT on TD1 still gives you that 50% chance that you got above to win. But it ALSO (not "or" as in above, but also) gives you the bonus opportunity to win when you miss that initial 2pt conversion that is not present in the previous scenario, option A. Here, on TD2 you can go for it again and have a 50% chance of sending it to overtime where you will have another 50% chance to win. By going for the 2pt only on TD2, you are not giving yourself that "second chance" that you could get if you missed it in this current scenario. This ends up yielding a 62.5% chance to win with our assumed numbers, not the 50% outlined above in A. I don't think I could explain it any further my man, you either get it or you don't. OK correct me if I'm wrong, but you only get to add the extra 12.5% to your win percentage if you've ALREADY DECIDED that, down by 8, you are going to go for 2-2pt conversions regardless of the outcome of the first. If you still are unsure about your second attempt being EITHER a 2pt attempt OR a PAT, you haven't captured those additional odds because the decision regarding the second option is dependent upon the outcome of the first: thus, it actually does make sense to look at the first two options down 8 (2pt vs PAT) as equivalent with respect to the 2 point conversion down 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: OK correct me if I'm wrong, but you only get to add the extra 12.5% to your win percentage if you've ALREADY DECIDED that, down by 8, you are going to go for 2-2pt conversions regardless of the outcome of the first. If you still are unsure about your second attempt being EITHER a 2pt attempt OR a PAT, you haven't captured those additional odds because the decision regarding the second option is dependent upon the outcome of the first: thus, it actually does make sense to look at the first two options down 8 (2pt vs PAT) as equivalent with respect to the 2 point conversion down 1. Dude, you are wrong. Sorry. I cannot explain it another time. The event starts at the first extra point attempt. There are two choices to start with. One has a 50% chance of giving you the win if you can score again (kick the PAT, option A) the other has a 62.5% chance of giving you the win if you can score again (go for 2pt conversion, option B). All the scenarios that follow that one choice are already accounted for in those two percentages. Comparing outcomes at different starting points (first TD and second TD) are not the same thing as you seem to be thinking. The choice has to start from the common event (the first TD scored). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Mark80 said: Dude, you are wrong. Sorry. I cannot explain it another time. The event starts at the first extra point attempt. There are two choices to start with. One has a 50% chance of giving you the win if you can score again (kick the PAT, option A) the other has a 62.5% chance of giving you the win if you can score again (go for 2pt conversion, option B). All the scenarios that follow that one choice are already accounted for in those two percentages. Comparing outcomes at different starting points (first TD and second TD) are not the same thing as you seem to be thinking. The choice has to start from the common event (the first TD scored). How are you not still capturing the extra 12.5% by electing to kick PAT on the first TD? Kicking PAT first allows you to retain win equity if we assume 100%PAT because you have the option of going for 2 on second TD OR playing for OT. Edited October 23, 2018 by GoBills808 I’m not being obtuse. I’m legitimately confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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