PAuline: agreement in principle with giants

[Tyrod's friend]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Foles isn't a quibble. He's no franchise QB. Not even close. Dalton may be a franchise guy but he's no top ten or twelve guy at least so far, and that's what you need, a consistent top ten or twelve guy to give yourself a consistent shot at titles.

 

And your way of fighting recency bias is to look only at the last six years? That does not fully address the problem.

 

This is what you get when you look at 2011 - 2016.

 

2011 - 2016 Pick 1 - 10 Goff, Wentz, Jameis Winston, Mariota, Bortles. Luck, Griffin III, Tannehill, Newton, Locker, Gabbert (with Winston, Mariota, Bortles and maybe Tannehill still having a shot)

 

2011 - 2016 Pick 11 - 32: Paxton Lynch, Manziel, Bridgewater, Manuel, Weeden, Ponder (Bridgewater still has a shot, and maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Lynch)

 

2011 - 2016 2nd rounders: Hackenberg, Carr, Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Osweiler, Dalton, Kaepernick (Garroppolo and Carr have really great chances. Very likely. Dalton, too, maybe)

 

2011 - 2016 3rd rounders: Brissett, Kessler, Grayson, Mannion, Glennon, Wilson, Foles, Mallett

 

What does this tell you? It tells you all but nothing, because it's way too small a sample, with many of these guys early enough in their careers that we don't know for sure yet). You need to have many more years to look at. The only real trend is that out of five rock solid top QBs, four of them were picked in the top ten.

 

Get yourself a larger sample, though, and what you find changes radically .....

 

1990 - 2016 Pick 1 - 10 Goff, Wentz, Jameis Winston, Mariota, Bortles. Luck, Griffin III, Tannehill, Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Bradford, Stafford, Sanchez, Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Mike Vick, Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf, Steve McNair, Kerry Collins, Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer, David Klingler, Jeff George, Andre Ware ........................... (with Winston, Mariota, Bortles and maybe Tannehill still having a shot)

 

1990 - 2016 Pick 11 - 32: Paxton Lynch, Manziel, Bridgewater, Manuel, Weeden, Ponder, Tebow, Freeman, Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Roethlisberger, Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, Chad Pennington before the shoulder injuries, Giovanni Carmazzi, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown, Jim Druckenmiller, Tommy Maddox, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich .......................(Bridgewater still has a shot, and maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Lynch. IMO Flacco was a franchise guy but not a rock solid long-term franchise guy and Culpepper might've made it without the injuries but doesn't)

 

1990 - 2016 2nd rounders: Hackenberg, Carr, Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Osweiler, Dalton, Kaepernick, Clausen, Pat White, Brohm, Henne, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Shaun King, Charlie Batch, Jake Plummer, Tony Banks, Todd Collins, Kordell Stewart, Matt Blundin, Tony Sacca, Brett Favre, Browning Nagle ............................. (Garroppolo and Carr have really great chances. Very likely. Dalton, too, maybe)

 

1990 - 2016 3rd rounders: Brissett, Kessler, Grayson, Mannion, Glennon, Wilson, Foles, Mallett, Colt McCoy, Kevin O'Connell, Trent Edwards, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Matt Schaub, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Josh McCown, Chris Redman, Brock Huard, Jonathan Quinn, Brian Griese, Bobby Hoying, Stoney Case, Eric Zeier, Billy Joe Hobert, Tom Hodson, Peter Tom Willis, Neil O'Donnell

 

 

 

There are some reasonable disagreements to be made with who I counted as undoubted franchise successes. But the overall trend is inarguable. And while I didn't go any further back, I'd bet the trend would be much the same further back.

I based the response on Bandit's reasonable limitations of on the salary capped years. 

Second, the main point in my post was that Bandit's sample itself had 38 QBs drafted in after the 3rd round. I will stand on that being a reasonable basis for making a conclusion. 

Finally, at the end of the day neither you nor Bandit account for the fact that using a top pick on a QB doesn't come without a cost. Between 2011 and 2016, All-Pro appearances by non-QB drafted in the top round far outpace QBs. In point of fact, there are very likely at least two (reasonably enough, three) Hall of Fame players drafted in the first round in that time period and I highly doubt you'll see one QB. 

You don't get to use that first round designation for free. All players drafted in the first round are more likely to be successful than players later. A failure to use that pick wisely on a QB doesn't only stagnate the offense - you likely ruined your chances in other ways.

Cheers.

[Tyrod's friend]

Because I don't want to put this some other place ... 

A recent "mock" suggested something I think most of us would welcome: the Bills being able to move #12 and #22 to get Josh Rosen at #4. (No mention of 2nd round picks also going, which I would believe would be necessary but doesn't impact this question).

The resulting draft sent Daniels at 21 to Cincinnati and McGlinchey at 22 to the Browns. Understanding in advance the lunacy of the 100% accuracy of the rear view, would you prefer Josh Rosen behind our current line or 

Glenn
Groy (Miller?)
Daniels
Dawkins
McGlinchey

I would tend to think that offensive line could be one of the most dominant in football, stocked nearly from end to end with players that are 28 or younger and under control for some time at a reasonable price. I would think that this offensive line makeup is probably an annual savings of over $40,000,000 or more on replacement costs. 

It is reasonable to say that this offensive line would provide you with the financial flexibility to acquire a Tier 1 WR and possibly a Tier 1 LB. 

[Thurman#1]

15 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

I based the response on Bandit's reasonable limitations of on the salary capped years. 

Second, the main point in my post was that Bandit's sample itself had 38 QBs drafted in after the 3rd round. I will stand on that being a reasonable basis for making a conclusion. 

Finally, at the end of the day neither you nor Bandit account for the fact that using a top pick on a QB doesn't come without a cost. Between 2011 and 2016, All-Pro appearances by non-QB drafted in the top round far outpace QBs. In point of fact, there are very likely at least two (reasonably enough, three) Hall of Fame players drafted in the first round in that time period and I highly doubt you'll see one QB. 

You don't get to use that first round designation for free. All players drafted in the first round are more likely to be successful than players later. A failure to use that pick wisely on a QB doesn't only stagnate the offense - you likely ruined your chances in other ways.

Cheers.

 

 

 

What you based it on don't matter, dude. What you did matters. And what you did was to make an extremely shaky comparison. 

 

From 1990 to 2016, in the second round 29 QBs were picked. Two became real franchise guys. Around 7%.

 

From 1990 to 2016, in the third round, 31 QBs were picked. One became a real franchise guy. Around 3%.

 

Maximizing your chances in the only move that makes sense.

 

 

[HiddenInLight]

37 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

I based the response on Bandit's reasonable limitations of on the salary capped years. 

Second, the main point in my post was that Bandit's sample itself had 38 QBs drafted in after the 3rd round. I will stand on that being a reasonable basis for making a conclusion. 

Finally, at the end of the day neither you nor Bandit account for the fact that using a top pick on a QB doesn't come without a cost. Between 2011 and 2016, All-Pro appearances by non-QB drafted in the top round far outpace QBs. In point of fact, there are very likely at least two (reasonably enough, three) Hall of Fame players drafted in the first round in that time period and I highly doubt you'll see one QB. 

You don't get to use that first round designation for free. All players drafted in the first round are more likely to be successful than players later. A failure to use that pick wisely on a QB doesn't only stagnate the offense - you likely ruined your chances in other ways.

Cheers.

 

How many of those players were on teams that already had franchise quarterbacks, or played on the team with one for the majority of their careers?  My bet is a lot.  H.O.F. guys and pro-bowlers usually play for good teams.  Good teams have franchise quarterbacks.

[greeneblitz]

19 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

 

Doesn't matter if a QB falls, it should be the QB Beane wants. I would hope the 6 top QBs in this draft are not considered interchangeable.

Smart analysis, I wish more people got this, each scouting department is gonna have their own guy that they believe will be the best, we need to figure out any way possible to get THAT guy. If not you end up with JP Losmans or EJ Manuels.

[Tyrod's friend]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

What you based it on don't matter, dude. What you did matters. And what you did was to make an extremely shaky comparison. 

 

From 1990 to 2016, in the second round 29 QBs were picked. Two became real franchise guys. Around 7%.

 

From 1990 to 2016, in the third round, 31 QBs were picked. One became a real franchise guy. Around 3%.

 

Maximizing your chances in the only move that makes sense.

 

 

And what you quoted was ancient history which I could care less about. Circumstances changed drastically in 2010, making analysis relevant through that time period. If you can't understand the dollar investment and how that would change decision making, then forget about it. 

I stand on what I posted. There's a stack of **** you aren't even close to talking about (like normalizing returns on a decision) which makes the entirety of your argument about as flawed as could be. 

[Tyrod's friend]

4 minutes ago, HiddenInLight said:

 

How many of those players were on teams that already had franchise quarterbacks, or played on the team with one for the majority of their careers?  My bet is a lot.  H.O.F. guys and pro-bowlers usually play for good teams.  Good teams have franchise quarterbacks.

Three guys I would identify as potential HOF from 2011 to 2016. JJ Watt, Luke Keuchley and possibly Aaron Donald. There are NO QBs I would say are HOF in that time period. 

Watt makes his team good. I think Keuchley does as well; basically Cam Newton is a one year wonder but I'll grant you that's a tossup. Aaron Donald is too soon to tell. 

Does the QB make the team or the other way around? I give you Jared Goff, 2016 and Jared Goff, 2017. Two important changes in coaching, some WRs, and an OT does wonders for a guy, doesn't it? Let's put this another way: if the team doesn't make the QB, how can you explain the lack of success of some college QBs that make it in the pros? I'm constantly reminded here about how this guy or that guy suddenly got better in the pros. Why wasn't that immensely talented guy able to lift his team? How could anyone possibly consider Josh Allen as a #1 pick? How is it that the very best season you've seen by a QB not get replicated someplace else immediately - and have people tell me that Nick Foles is not a franchise QB?  

You can't have it both ways.