Jon Ledyard/NDT Scouting: 19 first round grades, with 2 of the top 4 QBs left out

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

People talk about Allen like having a bad team around him counts as a positive. It's an important part of the evaluation but it doesn't help you scout him unless you're just looking at stats. He also faced horrible defenses most of the year but still threw a distressingly high rate of interceptable balls.

 

So even if your argument is that he was pressured more than other QBs, you can still determine how he performed when under pressure relative to the other QBs. And again the numbers here are terrible. According to that NDT scouting report he threw an interceptable ball 20% of the time when he was under pressure. That's against lower college level talent. At the NFL level when everything is much faster that habit won't go away. His ball placement when under pressure was the worst out of 13 QBs evaluated. Similarly for throws beyond his first read he had some of the worst ball placement and a 20% interceptable rate.

 

He will face plenty of pressure in the NFL and he'll have to move beyond his first read all the time. And he'll have to do it faster than he ever had to at Wyoming. When people say he has poor mental processing this is what they mean. Not his wonderlic score but his ability to make quick decisions on the field based on what he sees.

What you have when you over scrutinize a college players tape when said player only has played two years of football all you get is "part" of the analysis. The kid started college as this scrawny 198 lb weakling who grew into his bigger frame. The same can be said about developing as you go and more times than not players improve their play the more they play. You can watch two years of tape forever and it won't tell you the entire story.

 

Josh Allen's first year of college he played with a somewhat veteran team and in his second year, everyone that had touched the ball in his first year was gone. Allen had to deal with an entire rookie class that was learning as they went. Hence the reason he was running for his life nearly every offensive play and when he did throw his receivers had difficulty getting separation and catching the ball. Most QB's when under this kind of duress usually don't win many games and yet this young man managed to carry his team when needed. 

 

 

In the senior bowl, Allen faced some top competition and he did well going 9 of 13 for 158 yards, 2 TDs with a 12.8 avg. He also showed accuracy and touch with his throws in the game. 

 

From what has happened since the senior bowl, combine, and pro day is a significant improvement in his footwork, accuracy, and touch. There is a REAL reason as to why so many scouts, draft analysts have this kid as a top-five pick and some the first overall pick. 

 

P.S. Where are you getting this poor mental processing stuff? Allen can read the full field and is capable of getting through his progressions at a reasonable pace. He doesn’t anticipate players coming open, but will deliver the ball when he sees a player moving into space. This kid needs some time to on the bench to develop no question and like I said if developed properly he could be another Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers. 

 

 

[Nihilarian]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I thought for a long time it was Rosen.  I am increasingly thinking it might be Josh Allen.  I hope I am wrong because to me Rosen's tape is miles better.  

Rosen's tape is miles better. But then so was the team he played on with better players, better coaching. His star receiver Lasley had over 1264 yards receiving with 9 TDs. Rosen also played in a pro-style WCO offense with shorter passes...and yet UCLA finished the 2017 season at 5-6.

 

I can't help but think that Rosen is another Sam Bradford who looks and plays brilliantly and yet only managed to play in half of his career games because of injuries. While he can move around in the pocket and set his feet very quickly. He also isn't very good at escaping a pass rush and when he does get hit he tends to get injured. 

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Rosen's tape is miles better. But then so was the team he played on with better players, better coaching. His star receiver Lasley had over 1264 yards receiving with 9 TDs. Rosen also played in a pro-style WCO offense with shorter passes...and yet UCLA finished the 2017 season at 5-6.

 

I can't help but think that Rosen is another Sam Bradford who looks and plays brilliantly and yet only managed to play in half of his career games because of injuries. While he can move around in the pocket and set his feet very quickly. He also isn't very good at escaping a pass rush and when he does get hit he tends to get injured. 

The bolded is highly questionable.  I don't believe there was a worse coach than Jim Mora in Division 1 college football. 

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve been thinking that the Allen buzz is largely being created by his agent to try to boost his stock.  This lends credence to that.  

 

God I hope so.

 

The Allen hype is just baffling the hell outta me.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Tyrod's friend]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

God I hope so.

 

The Allen hype is just baffling the hell outta me.

Don't you understand?

He throws the ball very fast. 

[thebandit27]

7 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Don't you understand?

He throws the ball very fast. 

 

And he's a good athlete 

And he's got great escapability

And he has shown the ability to manipulate the defense with his eyes and with PA

And he's played in a pro style offense

And he's a smart, high character kid that loves the game 

 

But again, I realize that it's very difficult for folks to be intellectually honest with regard to Allen; it's far easier to use hyperbole.

 

I haven't figured out why that's the case though; doubt I ever will 

[Tyrod's friend]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

And he's a good athlete 

And he's got great escapability

And he has shown the ability to manipulate the defense with his eyes and with PA

And he's played in a pro style offense

And he's a smart, high character kid that loves the game 

 

But again, I realize that it's very difficult for folks to be intellectually honest with regard to Allen; it's far easier to use hyperbole.

 

I haven't figured out why that's the case though; doubt I ever will 

I haven't used hyperbole to describe Josh Allen once, so perhaps you'll excuse an attempt at humor.

You forgot to say 
And he's big.

 

I understand your commitment to the study you've done. From what I see around here you do a lot of film work, I'll honor that and admit my opinions are direvative. The very obvious things that stand out to me is that 

* excuses about talent surrounding him don't hold up. He wasn't that good a year ago. 

* talk about his playing in what amount to a scrimmage at an all-star game really doesn't hold up in my mind. 

* often his escapeability - according to people that have done some pretty good analysis - is because he failed in pre-snap reads. I think that will likely only get worse when really good players and DCs start to truly disguise what is coming.

I believe pretty strongly in muscle memory. The things a player does and has committed to his body to do, is what he will do at the least for the next four years after being a professional athlete - especially at QB. And to that ends, I do believe playing in a pro-style offense is an argument that has merit - but he wasn't particularly good at it nor did he show improvement the more he was exposed to it.

But if offensive style is a dominant theme, shouldn't we weight more heavily Lamar Jackson - who can spin it, improved himself year over year, led his team to great records, overcame poor WRs, was the singularly MOST escapable QB and analysts suggest is more accurate, and whom we won't have to move an inch to get?

Increases in completion percentage when moving to the pros ends when you start getting paid. Period. The arc of improvement stops. Any leap is temporary and more than likely reflective of the countless other variables that go into success as a pro. Matty Ryan didn't go from 57 to 61 and then up and up and up. 

Finally, there's this: I have a natural aversion to QBs with big arms. Their confidence gets them into problems and they tend to be turnover machines. They have problems with completions because frankly they don't throw a catchable ball and that is the singular, and I mean SINGULAR thing a QB must do. Does that apply to Josh Allen? I don't know I've never sat in a cold, NW stadium in November. 

I sure as heck don't want the Buffalo Bills to roll the dice on a guy that couldn't complete 60% of his passes against Western Goldminer State. Regardless of the many reasons he didn't complete the passes (like, because Brett Favre said "Touchdowns first" so he wouldn't hit the safety valve even though that was the design of the play), I know he didn't. 

Hope you get to stay warm.

Alex 

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

I haven't used hyperbole to describe Josh Allen once, so perhaps you'll excuse an attempt at humor.

You forgot to say 
And he's big.

 

I understand your commitment to the study you've done. From what I see around here you do a lot of film work, I'll honor that and admit my opinions are direvative. The very obvious things that stand out to me is that 

* excuses about talent surrounding him don't hold up. He wasn't that good a year ago. 

* talk about his playing in what amount to a scrimmage at an all-star game really doesn't hold up in my mind. 

* often his escapeability - according to people that have done some pretty good analysis - is because he failed in pre-snap reads. I think that will likely only get worse when really good players and DCs start to truly disguise what is coming.

I believe pretty strongly in muscle memory. The things a player does and has committed to his body to do, is what he will do at the least for the next four years after being a professional athlete - especially at QB. And to that ends, I do believe playing in a pro-style offense is an argument that has merit - but he wasn't particularly good at it nor did he show improvement the more he was exposed to it.

But if offensive style is a dominant theme, shouldn't we weight more heavily Lamar Jackson - who can spin it, improved himself year over year, led his team to great records, overcame poor WRs, was the singularly MOST escapable QB and analysts suggest is more accurate, and whom we won't have to move an inch to get?

Increases in completion percentage when moving to the pros ends when you start getting paid. Period. The arc of improvement stops. Any leap is temporary and more than likely reflective of the countless other variables that go into success as a pro. Matty Ryan didn't go from 57 to 61 and then up and up and up. 

Finally, there's this: I have a natural aversion to QBs with big arms. Their confidence gets them into problems and they tend to be turnover machines. They have problems with completions because frankly they don't throw a catchable ball and that is the singular, and I mean SINGULAR thing a QB must do. Does that apply to Josh Allen? I don't know I've never sat in a cold, NW stadium in November. 

I sure as heck don't want the Buffalo Bills to roll the dice on a guy that couldn't complete 60% of his passes against Western Goldminer State. Regardless of the many reasons he didn't complete the passes (like, because Brett Favre said "Touchdowns first" so he wouldn't hit the safety valve even though that was the design of the play), I know he didn't. 

Hope you get to stay warm.

Alex 

 

My apologies if the "intellectual honesty" comment appeared to be directed at you; that was not my intention...it was more of a statement about the general theme surrounding Josh Allen dialogue on this board.

 

It's not as though you don't make fair points.  I myself have reservations about Allen, even though I may be his most outspoken supporter on the board.

 

Where we definitely agree is regarding Allen's overconfidence in himself.  My #1 issue with him can be boiled down to "he tries to do way too much".  He tries to make throws that aren't there because he has an arm unlike any other--that he manages to do so from time to time doesn't help.  He tries to extend plays too far when he should take the throw-away.  He tries to carry his team on his arm when it's not possible to do so.

 

Appreciate the well-wishes; while Mrs. Bandit and I aren't huge fans of the April snow, my kids are ecstatic about it

Edited April 6, 2018 by thebandit27