BigBuff423 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 19 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: The point is, historically, most teams do not in fact succumb to that "draw" that is "harder to pass up". But posts here abound positing that they will automagically succumb. The second point is, professionals who do this for a living clearly don't agree with you because they pass on QB all the time, presumably because they aren't enamored of the choices. The ancillary question is: how do you define "in need of a QB"? Did Jax "blow" it by taking Fournette instead of Mahomes or Watson when they had Bortles on the roster? They had a QB...you may question whether he's really "all that" but he's still there. Did Dallas blow it by taking Zeke Elliot when they had a much-injured Romo as QB and could have drafted, oh, say, Paxton Lynch? They seem to think they found a QB later on in that same draft. This example, as with other years, is why I don't want the Bills to trade UP....I'd prefer they trade back but at the least stay put. People are looking at this QB class in the same view as the 1983 or 2004 QB class....and it might well be. But, history is littered with good to great QBs in the 2nd / 3rd round who developed well and lead a franchise. I won't even consider the rare exceptions in Brady, Romo, and Warner but there again, good to great QBs (1 HOFer, one guaranteed HOFer, and a great QB) were all discovered very late. It takes a good scouting department and bit of fortune but almost every year, there is a QB who emerges from the depths and becomes a good to great QB. Will Dak continue to be good? Who knows...but the arrow is pointing in the right direction. Even Aaron Rodgers was taken late 1st when everyone assumed he would go top 5....again the point is, just trading UP does not guarantee you a great QB - and that's assuming you CAN trade up as Hapless laid out in the post. I for one would rather sit at 21, see what comes to the Bills, trade a couple players for more picks and to free up some FA money, and look at ways to complete the team. This includes a QB, but it doesn't have to be at 2 or 3 or 4, it can be late 1st round or 2nd round depending on who is there and how the Draft goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just draft a Quarterback. Get off the pot. The Bills have been on it so long even the pot is sick of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 (edited) 21 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This is my entry for "TBD post themes I'm a bit aged on seeing": writing from the viewpoint that any team who doesn't intend to draft a QB is a partner to trade back. We need a QB, so we have the natural tendency to view the draft from a QB-centric lens, and to believe that everyone who doesn't need a QB might take one high "just because" or else will be happy to trade out of their top-5 pick. But let's take a deep breath and insert some facts into the discussion, 'kay? Since 2011 (when the CBA was implemented and signing a top-5 rookie QB would no longer cost a King's Ransom and kill the cap if they bust), teams have become more willing to take a shot at a QB high. But.... ....19 out of the 28 top 5 picks since 2011 have been used on positions OTHER than QB. Here's how it breaks down: 8 picks on defense: DE 5 DT 1 LB 2 20 picks on offense: QB 9 OT 5 WR 3 RB 3 So you see, despite the common conviction that if a team doesn't want to draft a QB with their top 5 pick they will automagically become a willing partner to swap out of that pick resulting in 6 QB drafted with the top 4 picks this year, it actually doesn't happen that way IRL. 2/3 of the time teams hold onto their picks and draft someone they believe will be a franchise-changer for them at another position, most commonly DE or OT but also RB - and it has to be pointed out that in the last 2 years, Fournette and Elliot have been franchise-changers for their team. I was going to tuck this into another thread, but I think it's worth seeing on its own. Bottom line: just because a team does not wish to draft a QB in the top 5, does NOT mean they will want to trade it. They might, or depending upon their viewpoint of the other top players in the draft and their team's needs, they may choose to stand pat and pull the trigger at another position. I don't disagree with your post, but 28 isn't divisible by 5, do your math of 28 total is only top4 picks, since 2011, so it should be 35, but you might have used top5 for the number 19. That means it's only 9 out of 35, which proves your point even more I might be missing something, so if I'm incorrect sorry, I just woke up. Adding in: While it seems most teams might not be willing to trade, it also might be the package offered. We have two first round picks (although not high picks) Might entice a team to trade knowing they can get two firsts immediately, instead of waiting to next year to get an extra first. Edited March 9, 2018 by SouthNYfan Added 35 math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 29 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said: This example, as with other years, is why I don't want the Bills to trade UP....I'd prefer they trade back but at the least stay put. People are looking at this QB class in the same view as the 1983 or 2004 QB class....and it might well be. But, history is littered with good to great QBs in the 2nd / 3rd round who developed well and lead a franchise. I won't even consider the rare exceptions in Brady, Romo, and Warner but there again, good to great QBs (1 HOFer, one guaranteed HOFer, and a great QB) were all discovered very late. It takes a good scouting department and bit of fortune but almost every year, there is a QB who emerges from the depths and becomes a good to great QB. Will Dak continue to be good? Who knows...but the arrow is pointing in the right direction. Even Aaron Rodgers was taken late 1st when everyone assumed he would go top 5....again the point is, just trading UP does not guarantee you a great QB - and that's assuming you CAN trade up as Hapless laid out in the post. I for one would rather sit at 21, see what comes to the Bills, trade a couple players for more picks and to free up some FA money, and look at ways to complete the team. This includes a QB, but it doesn't have to be at 2 or 3 or 4, it can be late 1st round or 2nd round depending on who is there and how the Draft goes. I've made no bones about it: in this draft, I like Rosen and Mayfield (order depending on medical details, football knowledge, and interview intangibles I have no access to). I would dearly like to see the Bills move up, if there is one of the top QB they are sold on. Maybe two. But not for "one of the four top QB". For one or two specific guys. I want them to take a shot at drafting a QB in the top rounds, but it has to be recognized that teams with top picks in the draft will tend their interests first, and may want to stay higher than we are, or not trade at all - not drafting a QB does not mean "wants to trade to 21". If there's a QB they like and think will fall to them, or even go in the 2nd or 3rd I'm OK with that, just recognize that the "litter pile" of late 1st, 2nd and 3rd round QB who don't make it is much higher than the QB littering those rounds who do. Finding a QB may be a process. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBuff423 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I've made no bones about it: in this draft, I like Rosen and Mayfield (order depending on medical details, football knowledge, and interview intangibles I have no access to). I would dearly like to see the Bills move up, if there is one of the top QB they are sold on. Maybe two. But not for "one of the four top QB". For one or two specific guys. I want them to take a shot at drafting a QB in the top rounds, but it has to be recognized that teams with top picks in the draft will tend their interests first, and may want to stay higher than we are, or not trade at all - not drafting a QB does not mean "wants to trade to 21". If there's a QB they like and think will fall to them, or even go in the 2nd or 3rd I'm OK with that, just recognize that the "litter pile" of late 1st, 2nd and 3rd round QB who don't make it is much higher than the QB littering those rounds who do. Finding a QB may be a process. And understandably, history favors taking a QB high in the 1st round....but that could also be that those QBs get the most time to develop? In other words, when a guy like Peterman is Drafted, he gets a few games or in some cases a season, but rarely does he get 3 full years to show he can develop into a good QB. AJ McCarron is the talk of Cleveland right now with Hue trying to trade for him (and failing, ugh) and possibly the Browns signing him once FA starts. AJ McCarron was a winning QB at 'Bama, but he wasn't highly regarded as an elite passer yet now, he comes from the shadows as a guy about to make some coin and be considered a "good QB" because he had a decent handful of games. Look at Alex Smith...if he wasn't Drafted 1st overall, I'm not sure he'd be where he is today. People, not saying you, forget how bad he was the first several years he was in the league. It wasn't until Harbaugh came along, that he became a good to great QB. What Harbaugh did was take the pressure of his shoulders by utilizing a great ground game, solid Defense, and simply asked Alex to make the throws without giving it back to the other team, and he did that quite well. Andy Reid has a penchant for maximizing a QBs talent, Doug Pederson is showing to be the same, and there are others but my point being, I think this Draft will reveal one or two QBs Drafted 2nd to 4th round that end up being very good NFL QBs while two to three teams are going to swing and miss on the top 5 QBs in this Draft. Just in recent years, R. Wilson, Andy Dalton, Dak Prescott, Jimmy G., Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr show this can be done. That's not to mention what's occurred in the years prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The indications are that the Giants are going to be passing on a QB. The question is, how likely are they to trade out of the second overall pick. I imagine it will be hard for the Browns to not pick a QB with one of their top 5 picks - maybe more likely with #4 overall. Obviously, the Colts aren't drafting a QB. Let's say the first QB goes at #4 overall. Denver and the Jets are certainly possibilities to pick a QB. I think the next spot where a QB could go might be Arizona. (I believe the Dolphins are going to stand pat with Tannehill for the time being.) Of course, free agency could affect any of those teams that I see as possible landing spots for a first round QB. Thus, I figure at most 4 QBs could be reasonably thought to go before the Bills pick, but that number could be reduced by free agent signings. For the Bills, it all depends on what they're looking for. If they thing they absolutely have to have a particular QB from among those who are more or less likely to be drafted before #21, they trade up. I think the most likely scenario is they stand pat at #21 and #22. Whether or not they draft a QB at that point depends on what they do in free agency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NastyNateSoldiers Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 20 hours ago, KelsaysLunchbox said: It's almost like other teams have free will and put their teams needs above what would help the Bills out. Who knew. It's the funniest thing to read on here. "Just move to 2, Just sign XXX player, Just trade for XXX.". There are 31 other teams and none are standing still. Maybe Gettleman doesn't feel the picks we would give would outweigh the impact of Barkley. Maybe the huge contract we would offer Paul Richardson wouldn't matter because he wants to play near family, or for his boyhood favorite team, or for a contender more. As always it takes 2 sides to make a deal. Well that's what happens on these fan boards . Why are u even here? Don't read it . Do yourself a favor and go to another site your wasting your time. Maybe u can go to YouTube and watching cats run around that seems to be popular these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 (edited) I will reply even though it kind of sounds like you are talking down to everybody. Obviously we all know that you need a trade partner in order to trade up. Guys may not do it. People do curious things all of the time. But that doesn't necessarily mean they will not do it because it isn't the right thing to do. It might mean a guy is worried he will be fired next year if the team doesn't rebound. A harvest of picks spanning two years doesn't help this person. Take a look at the Cleveland guy. Cleveland owns this years draft but the guy who planted that harvest got fired. Simplified because everything is always nuanced in the NFL, look at what the last two big deal trade down teams got. The Titans went from the #1 to #15 pick. They got the 2016 #15 1st round pick, two 2nd round picks (2016), a 3rd round pick (2016), a 1st round pick (2017) and a 3rd round pick (2017). (Goff taken by Rams at #1) They also gave up a 2016 4th and 6th. They got: Two 1sts, two 2nds, two 3rds. Close to an an entire extra draft for trading down 14 spots. The Browns went from the #2 pick to the #8 pick. They got the 2016 #8 1st round pick, 3rd and 4th round picks in 2016, 1st Round pick n 2017, 2nd Round pick in 2018. They also gave a conditional late round pick. 2 1sts, a 2nd a 3rd and a 4th round pick. Basically an entire extra draft for trading down 7 spots. I say if your scouting department is so good that you are dead certain a defensive tackle or whatever in the draft, is worth an entire draft worth of picks, then they should be good enough to get a lot of value out of an entire drafts worth of picks also. I say if people didn't get fired, if GMs and coaching staffs didn't get fired in the interval between when they make these trades and when they pay off, every analytical team would do it. Because there nearly never has been a player at any other spot besides QB who is worth an entire draft. If that makes me a simple simon who needs to be patiently explained to and tolerated, then so be it. Because I am not going to be able to understand it any other way any time soon. In closing I say to you and to Mr Gettleman, - Reggie Bush - #2 Overall Pick. Ponder that Mr Gettleman. Gettleman just got the job he should be able to survive a year or two more to reap what he sows and I stick my guns that the man will trade. I just hope it is with us. Edited March 9, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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