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Friendly reminder: Turnover differential is King


BADOLBILZ

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3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

As Belichick says.........more games are lost than won.

 

Bills lost this game with mistakes that the Jags capitalized on.

 

Chalk another win in the column of the team that won the turnover battle but the Bills made a lot more mistakes than that.

 

I absolutely hate Jauron Ball....people just noticing that the Bills are nauseating to watch are a bit slow on the uptake..........but they had to play this style because they lacked playmakers in the passing game all season.

 

Not the least bit surprised at the offensive results yesterday.   

 

Tyrod deserves a ton of credit for going from a QB of a high scoring offense that lead the league in big plays for two years in a row......to transitioning into a surprisingly solid, if unorthodox Jauron Ball QB.

 

 He never adapted to the timing of this offense but let's face it,  waiting until late October and early November to get the #2 and #1 WR's on the field.....Thompson and Benjamin respectively.....was a challenge.    Benjamin was still confused about where to line-up yesterday.    If anything you want polished WCO receivers for a first time WCO QB.   

 

Huge waste of the capabilities of Tyrod and Shady......who was turned into a plain ol' 4 ypc RB.......but personnel decisions dictated what you saw yesterday(and most of the year).

 

I always take a QB with that first pick.....and if Tyrod is back........so be it.........I think he would at least improve marginally given reps and time with a WR corps..........but if they actually want to score points in bunches again they need to cater the offense to his skills and get a big play WR for that X or Y position.

 

 

 

 

 

Technically, you are correct. But the number of failed drives was a far more important statistic in yesterday's game. The turnovers were irrelevant for the most part. 

 

 

2016

Scoring: 11th (399 points, 520 led the league & 16th was 365)

Passing: 30th (3036 yards, 5074 led the league)

Passing TDs: 27th (17, 40 led the league)

Rushing: 1st (2630 yards, 1205 was worst in the league)

Rushing TDs: 29 (1st, 6 was worst in the league)

 

Doesn't really look like Taylor really had much to do with that not-quite-top 10 "high scoring" offense. I would imagine having an all-world RB helps. 

 

2015

Scoring: 12th (379, 500 led the league & 16th was 367)

Passing: 28th (3343, 4970 led the league)

Passing TDs: 21st (23, 36 led the league)

Rushing: 1st (2432, 1335 was worst in the league)

Rushing TDs: 1st (19, 4 was the worst in the league)

 

Weird, pretty much the same thing. 

 

"High Scoring" generally doesn't mean "slightly better than the middle of the league, yet nowhere near the top 5". 

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I've been saying the Bills should "treat the draft like a process instead of an event" on TSW for over a decade now.(That was pre-"Saban process" talk even)

 

Because when it all comes down to it long term success is mostly about QB play.

 

I used to point out that the Bills only had 3 or 4 or 5 of their first rounders on their roster to prove how little they had to show for never being all in on a QB on draft day.

 

On Sunday......they only had ONE on the field....2017 pick 3D White.:lol:

 

 And that's STILL not why they didn't go deep into the playoffs.

 

Keep taking the best QB available.

 

57 straight drafts never being all-in on a single QB........I'm WAY PAST being critical of which that QB is........I wasn't very high on Paxton Lynch at all but I was fine with that pick if the Bills felt he was the BQBA......it's as simple as that......my bpa was Myles Jack and yeah he's been a far better pick than Shaq but even if he turns into another Luke Kuechly or Shaq turns into a stud pass rusher they are not worth possibly missing on a franchise QB and 10-15 years of only being a few good moves from SB contention at any time.

 

I supported the EJ Manuel pick even though I thought he was a full-on 3-5 year project with the caveat that it's only wrong if they use it as an excuse not to try agin.

 

I really liked the upside of Mahomes last year but would have been fine with Watson too.   

 

QB evaluation is an inexact science.   The same guys that built a dominant Seahawks defense with shrewd drafting thought Charlie Whitehurst and Matt Flynn were potential franchise QB's and only got lucky with Russ Wilson because they tried even though they had just recently invested picks and a big contract in Whitehurst and Flynn.   The list of great personnel men that picked bust QB's is long for a reason.

 

But it's a lottery ticket in a league of 32 where 2/3 of the field isn't even playing in a given year.

 

By not simply taking that QB they've passed on 4 SB winning QB's and a number of other very good QB's during the drought who may win SB's yet.

 

They aren't in QB Purgatory........they just aren't trying hard enough.

 

 

 

Yes! Yes to all of this!

Edited by twoandfourteen
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23 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Technically, you are correct. But the number of failed drives was a far more important statistic in yesterday's game. The turnovers were irrelevant for the most part. 

 

 

2016

Scoring: 11th (399 points, 520 led the league & 16th was 365)

Passing: 30th (3036 yards, 5074 led the league)

Passing TDs: 27th (17, 40 led the league)

Rushing: 1st (2630 yards, 1205 was worst in the league)

Rushing TDs: 29 (1st, 6 was worst in the league)

 

Doesn't really look like Taylor really had much to do with that not-quite-top 10 "high scoring" offense. I would imagine having an all-world RB helps. 

 

2015

Scoring: 12th (379, 500 led the league & 16th was 367)

Passing: 28th (3343, 4970 led the league)

Passing TDs: 21st (23, 36 led the league)

Rushing: 1st (2432, 1335 was worst in the league)

Rushing TDs: 1st (19, 4 was the worst in the league)

 

Weird, pretty much the same thing. 

 

"High Scoring" generally doesn't mean "slightly better than the middle of the league, yet nowhere near the top 5". 

 

 

Technically correct is to say.......correct.

 

What you miss on the turnover side of the ledger is that had they not turned the ball over at all.........they still would not have WON the turnover battle.

 

They dropped two interception opportunities.

 

They weren't absolute gimmee's.........but to put them in perspective TT threw 6 picks this year.......three were very catchable balls that the TE targeted tipped up into the air for pix.  

 

The others were thrown to defenders.   TMK having watched the entire season of games at least twice.......Tyrod threw no other passes into defenders arms all year.

 

 So 3 in one season........and Bortles threw 2 just yesterday alone.    TT is absolutely remarkable wrt not throwing passes to defenders for a guy who is just so woefully scattershot in the eyes of some.

 

As for your stats.........the 2016 Bills were 7th in the NFL in scoring after week 15.........Tyrod sat out week 16, hence the drop from 7th to 12th.    I don't hold what EJ and Cardale did against him.   That was the best Bills offense in a quarter century.

 

And yes.........they ran a lot.   Running generally is not associate with high scoring offense("points in the passing game" as Jaws would say) but the way Tyrod was used he scored a lot of TD's running as well as throwing.

 

AND SPEAKING OF "Weird, pretty much same thing.":

 

What you don't mention is the big plays that provided most of that scoring............this year the Bills wanted Taylor to make "small" plays........lot's of dink and dunk WCO stuff.  

 

In 2015 and 2016 with Taylor they lead the NFL in big plays each season.........and in 2015 with Watkins mostly healthy and Harvin for a few games they had about 20 more big plays in the passing game than in the run game over their 2016 total sans Sammy and Harvin for most of the year.

 

But......they still had almost the exact same amount of big plays both years.

 

 

 

 

Edited by BADOLBILZ
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7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

As Belichick says.........more games are lost than won.

 

Bills lost this game with mistakes that the Jags capitalized on.

 

Chalk another win in the column of the team that won the turnover battle but the Bills made a lot more mistakes than that.

 

I absolutely hate Jauron Ball....people just noticing that the Bills are nauseating to watch are a bit slow on the uptake..........but they had to play this style because they lacked playmakers in the passing game all season.

 

Not the least bit surprised at the offensive results yesterday.   

 

Tyrod deserves a ton of credit for going from a QB of a high scoring offense that lead the league in big plays for two years in a row......to transitioning into a surprisingly solid, if unorthodox Jauron Ball QB.

 

 He never adapted to the timing of this offense but let's face it,  waiting until late October and early November to get the #2 and #1 WR's on the field.....Thompson and Benjamin respectively.....was a challenge.    Benjamin was still confused about where to line-up yesterday.    If anything you want polished WCO receivers for a first time WCO QB.   

 

Huge waste of the capabilities of Tyrod and Shady......who was turned into a plain ol' 4 ypc RB.......but personnel decisions dictated what you saw yesterday(and most of the year).

 

I always take a QB with that first pick.....and if Tyrod is back........so be it.........I think he would at least improve marginally given reps and time with a WR corps..........but if they actually want to score points in bunches again they need to cater the offense to his skills and get a big play WR for that X or Y position.

 

 

 

 

DeonteThompsonWideOpenOnFlyRoute.gif.

 

Bills have been bottom five in passing big plays for two years in a row.  Unless we bring back Sammy, Woods, Hogan, Goodwin and Harvin, I think it's over for TT and the "high scoring offense that led the league in big plays."  

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Technically correct is to say.......correct.

 

What you miss on the turnover side of the ledger is that had they not turned the ball over at all.........they still would not have WON the turnover battle.

 

They dropped two interception opportunities.

 

They weren't absolute gimmee's.........but to put them in perspective TT threw 6 picks this year.......three were very catchable balls that the TE targeted tipped up into the air for pix.  

 

The others were thrown to defenders.   TMK having watched the entire season of games at least twice.......Tyrod threw no other passes into defenders arms all year.

 

 So 3 in one season........and Bortles threw 2 just yesterday alone.    TT is absolutely remarkable wrt not throwing passes to defenders for a guy who is just so woefully scattershot in the eyes of some.

 

As for your stats.........the 2016 Bills were 7th in the NFL in scoring after week 15.........Tyrod sat out week 16, hence the drop from 7th to 12th.    I don't hold what EJ and Cardale did against him.   That was the best Bills offense in a quarter century.

 

And yes.........they ran a lot.   Running generally is not associate with high scoring offense("points in the passing game" as Jaws would say) but the way Tyrod was used he scored a lot of TD's running as well as throwing.

 

AND SPEAKING OF "Weird, pretty much same thing.":

 

What you don't mention is the big plays that provided most of that scoring............this year the Bills wanted Taylor to make "small" plays........lot's of dink and dunk WCO stuff.  

 

In 2015 and 2016 with Taylor they lead the NFL in big plays each season.........and in 2015 with Watkins mostly healthy and Harvin for a few games they had about 20 more big plays in the passing game than in the run game over their 2016 total sans Sammy and Harvin for most of the year.

 

But......they still had almost the exact same amount of big plays both years.

 

 

 

 

Perhaps that had something to do with LeSean going from 800 yards to 1200 on 30 more carries, with 9 more TD's and almost a full yard more than his career average YPC.  Just something to think about.  Maybe the 400 yard and 63 point difference had nothing to do with it.  

Edited by jmc12290
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