clumping platelets Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 I know this is a new thread about the cap stuff.....but I will find it easier to explain and make sure most of y'all actually see it 1) Cap Adjustment: If you read my cap analysis article, you will see I predicted a cap debit of $1.5 million. If you also notice, my recent numbers were how much under an "unadjusted" salary cap cap of $85.5 million. I had not included this in my recent numbers. Therefore, my last update of about $5.28 million would read $3.78 million with my cap debit estimate. Clayton's numbers obviously include this cap debit. This is info that I usually have by now, but don't. It's very possible that the cap debit is greater than $1.5 million 2) How many salary escalators have been revealed in the past couple of weeks? Mike Williams, Nate Clements, and Coy Wire. These 3 have eaten up $6,208,125 from the cap space. 3) Buffalo News highlighted the largest cap numbers last week and I believe their interpretation of Mike Williams' is incorrect. His bonus is listed as a roster bonus NOT option, thus it should count $3 million not be amortized. That's why his number should continue to be at least $9.17 million. However, he also has a number of NLTBE incentives in his deal (cap adjustment), but once a NLTBE is earned and if the player has the same NLTBE for the following year, it then becomes LTBE and counts on cap. MW has a NLTBE of $1.5 million in 2005 but a portion of that likely counts as LTBE. Buffalo News also stated that Sam Adams cap number is slightly more than $4 million while my number is less than $3 million. I have yet to determine where this discrepancy lies. It's likely that Adams had a bonus tied to making the Pro Bowl and/or playing time (Ruben Brown had a roster bonus tied to PB and playing time) 4) McGahee's NLTBE's from 2004 most likely are now considered as LTBE in 2005. Eric Moulds may still have his $175,000 Pro Bowl bonus and it would be LTBE. Both are not in my numbers 5) Supposedly, the Bills created $1.6 million of cap space Friday morning in order to make the deal with OL Mike Gandy and QB Kelly Holcomb. Most likely, as outlined in my analysis article, they guaranteed Schobel's $2 million roster bonus (i.e. converted it to signing bonus and spread it out over 5 yrs, 2005-2009 at $400,000/yr....cap savings of $1.6 million) 6) It's also possible that Gandy's deal is already included in the numbers. (Probability 50%) 7) I will repeat YET AGAIN....I do not pretend that my numbers are 100% accurate. I can only go by mostly public information reported by the various media outlets. I do have access to some other info thru a group of "cyberspace capologists" but again, i'm at the mercy of what info is available thru that resource. The cap adjustment is one such piece of info. 8) LATE EDIT: Bills also recently tendered RFAs & EFAs. That used up about $780,000, but these were already included in my most recent estimate NOTE: This is separate because it MUST BE EMPHASIZED.......Bills have many ways of creating cap space. Obviously, the Bills did not have the cap space available to re-sign either JJ or PW, but they may have decided weeks ago to move in another direction. PW was from the previous regime and most of them are gone. The OT market was the reason JJ is not back. Average OT's should not be given $10+ million signing bonuses. I do not begrudge TD for not bringing JJ back, but I do question not bringing PW back. The number took me by surprise and the discrepancies are directly linked to the cap adjustment AND bonuses now considered LTBE. It appears my numbers for my Miami cap page are much closer. However, it's a matter of information availability. Miami has 3-4 newspapers covering the Fins and contract details are much more attainable, while the Bills basically have 2 (Buffalo Snooze and D&C). But that being said, look how far off the estimates of the media outlets were and mine. My numbers still were/are more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 I understood about 10% of that - just enough to know that you're still The Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownBillsFan Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 Thanks for the info, always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeleelop Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 thanks for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsGuyInMalta Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 But that being said, look how far off the estimates of the media outlets were and mine. My numbers still were/are more accurate 263571[/snapback] Oooooooo was that a diss towards John Clayton and his "sources"? I say we organize a street fight between the two of you for training camp activities this summer. Great work as always Clumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsGuyInMalta Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 By the way Clump, any idea yet how much money we'd free up by releasing Wire under his new contract? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clumping platelets Posted March 5, 2005 Author Share Posted March 5, 2005 Oooooooo was that a diss towards John Clayton and his "sources"? I say we organize a street fight between the two of you for training camp activities this summer. Great work as always Clumpy. 263582[/snapback] Not Clayton, local media sources. Remember the brouha when I posted that the cap situation wasn't as rosy as it was being portrayed? I had the Bills $7.4 million under an estimated $86 million salary cap. Now the it's $85.5 million, so there's $500,000 gone. Local (and national) media sources were reporting $12-17 million under when I had $7.4 million. So, you can see where I can claim to be more accurate. Even recently, local sources had $7-9 million, I had my number down to $5.28 million. Unfortunately, Bills do not get the same coverage as does the Skins, etc when it comes to contract details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachChuckDickerson Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 Clump, can you do my taxes for me? I would feel bad for any poor IRS fella who audits you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clumping platelets Posted March 5, 2005 Author Share Posted March 5, 2005 Clump, can you do my taxes for me? I would feel bad for any poor IRS fella who audits you. 263602[/snapback] Stay with a tax guy, my taxes take 30 minutes on TurboTax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gross Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 Clump, every time you post here, our cap room shrinks. I'm sorry son, but you'll have to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clumping platelets Posted March 5, 2005 Author Share Posted March 5, 2005 Clump, every time you post here, our cap room shrinks. I'm sorry son, but you'll have to go.... 263688[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffBills#1 Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 I still don't understand anything about our cap anymore. We were at one point 15 million under because of releasing Bledsoe and restructuring Moulds. Then we went down to 8. 5 million because of the escaltors to Mike Williams, Clements, and Wire. The next week I see we're down to 6 million. Now we're at 600,000?? I don't understand any of it anymore. How can the Vikings be 31 million under with all the over paying they've been doing. How can the Colts have more cap room then us with the money they've spent lately?? Does this make any sense to anyone anymore?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clumping platelets Posted March 5, 2005 Author Share Posted March 5, 2005 By the way Clump, any idea yet how much money we'd free up by releasing Wire under his new contract? 263586[/snapback] Basically, his salary just went from $455,000 to $1.43 million. His cap hit is now $1.55 million Cap hit - remaining amortization - adjustment for top 51 = cap savings $1,550,000 - $120,000 - $305,000 = $1.125 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brihs2005 Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 Hey Clump - I know you don't have access to the fine print in most contracts, but do you know how the pro-bowl escalators work? Is it if they are invited to play in the game, or is it if they are named as an alternate? Conspiracy Theorists of the World Unite because i think Surtain backed out of the pro-bowl just to screw the Bills out of 2 Million in cap room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clumping platelets Posted March 5, 2005 Author Share Posted March 5, 2005 I think being named an alternate was enough to trigger Moulds' PB bonus. It depends on how the escalator is written. Clements' may been simply a playing time incentive that many rookie contracts have for the last year. Clements is in his last yr of his original rookie deal. Coy Wire's escalator is a similiar thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JP-era Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 Not Clayton, local media sources. Remember the brouha when I posted that the cap situation wasn't as rosy as it was being portrayed? I had the Bills $7.4 million under an estimated $86 million salary cap. Now the it's $85.5 million, so there's $500,000 gone. Local (and national) media sources were reporting $12-17 million under when I had $7.4 million. So, you can see where I can claim to be more accurate. Even recently, local sources had $7-9 million, I had my number down to $5.28 million. Unfortunately, Bills do not get the same coverage as does the Skins, etc when it comes to contract details 263592[/snapback] I think, with no proof, you are about 2-3 mil under on how much cap room we have. Thats a hypothesis (educated guess), kind of like your cap numbers are a hypothesis. I am reading into your posts a bit, and please correct me if Im wrong, it seems you tend to lean under on your cap estimates and over on your FA deal projections. That is a nice way to say your a cap conservative who shys away from big FA deals. Im the opposite and want afew studs, at the end of the offseason, lets review what happened. If your right, and we went the conservative route, I will be a believer. If Im right and the Bills make big moves that your numbers dont support (your cap numbers dont cover the moves). Please admit you were wrong. I admire your passion and respect anyone who does this much work for the good of the board, I just disagree with the cheaper by the dozen mentality and feel we need to sign a few studs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsGuyInMalta Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 Basically, his salary just went from $455,000 to $1.43 million. His cap hit is now $1.55 million Cap hit - remaining amortization - adjustment for top 51 = cap savings $1,550,000 - $120,000 - $305,000 = $1.125 million 263749[/snapback] Bye-Bye Coy! Bye-Bye Pierson! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Days Lois & Clark Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 I don't understand If the Bills have no cap room, then why would they bring in ty law for a visit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 6, 2005 Share Posted March 6, 2005 Clump..... I have absolutely no problem believing your numbers.... I gotta ask your opinion though....it is OBVIOUS that the biggest hit on the Bills this year is Mike WIlliams contract.... They guy isn't going anywhere....he was a friggen 4th overall pick....he is playing well....(Dominant when in shape) Why aren't they doing something with his contract...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted March 6, 2005 Share Posted March 6, 2005 Thank you CP. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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