Kirby Jackson Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Because on Sunday that oblong spheroid can bounce any which way and good teams lose to bad teams every week. Bills fans simply don't trust this year's team to be motivated enough to beat a bad team. Heck, they could have lost to the Jags if not for the Jags defense and special teams blowing up on a few select plays...but that's what makes them bad. The Browns took the 7-4 Dolphins to overtime and only lost to a few teams by 2-3 points. On any given Sunday! Stats says it's extremely difficult for a team to lose all sixteen games in a season and chances are they will win one game. Giants, Bengals, Bills, Chargers, Steelers. which will it be... To answer the last part the ELO simulations give them an 11.3% chance of winning at Buffalo, the lowest win probability of any team left on their schedule. The Browns have squandered their opportunity to win a game IMO. If, by some miracle they DO win a game it wound be the Bills. The Bills are a nightmare matchup for them. The Browns aren't an "any given Sunday" opponent. A weird bounce or a bad turnover isn't going to impact anything because they will be down 30. They are 31st against the run, playing on the road against the top rushing offense in the league. The Bills have the most brushing TDs in the league, the Browns have given up the 2nd most rushing TDs. They are going to run all over them. There is not a logical argument that supports the Browns being able to compete. The only reason that people are projecting the Browns is "because it could happen." That's not a good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I believe that the odds (before the Jax game) had the Bills at 81% to make the playoffs at 10-6. It isn't a done deal but statistically it IS likely to get in at 10-6 not the other way around. It's getting to 10 wins that's the hard part. If they had to lose a game I suppose this would be the one. The next 2 weeks will tell the story IMO. FWIW, 10-6 historically got you in at 87% of the time. The Bills were a little less with their conference record. I don't remember the site but it's the one that WGR uses for all of their analytical data. Wow, Kirby, where are you seeing this? I have said since mid-season, they need to go 7-1 in the second half to make the playoffs. After Seattle...they needed to run the table. Although the NYT calculator says 10-6 gets you in 50% of the time I just can't reasonably believe that 10-6, 7-5 in the AFC, gets you in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 ...is this week the week? A post in the postgame thread got me thinking... Most everyone here agrees that 10-6 is what we need to possibly make the playoffs. So, we can lose one game and still have a shot. If that's the case, isn't it best if we lose the game this week against Oakland? We need to beat PIT and MIA, to help us jump ahead of them in the playoff chase. Losing to the Jets hurts us in the first tiebreaker - division record. Losing to the Browns would be ...well embarrassing and demoralizing. So... would it really be so bad if we lose to the Raiders this week? Is this really the game that will define our playoff run? Or is it the following couple of weeks? I do believe that if we can afford to lose 1 game, this is it. The Steelers and Dolphins are must win games due to potential tiebreaker scenarios and the Browns and Jets are must win games due to the level of the competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Wow, Kirby, where are you seeing this? I have said since mid-season, they need to go 7-1 in the second half to make the playoffs. After Seattle...they needed to run the table. Although the NYT calculator says 10-6 gets you in 50% of the time I just can't reasonably believe that 10-6, 7-5 in the AFC, gets you in. It was the analytics site that WGR uses and always references. It might have been 79% I don't fully remember. Normally a 10-6 team is 87% but the Bills were a little lower because of the conference losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26TrapDraw Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 If the Bills win out. That would be the biggest statement. Make the playoffs or not it says everything we need to know about this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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