BuffaloBillsForever Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Perhaps one reason why Kelly would part ways with what seems like a top 5 back. http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27 As a predictor basically we acquire McCoy right at the start of the downward sloping portion of the curve. Sorry if this has been posted before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 He is turning 27 in July. He is not on the down slope. Fred Jackson is what? 33? and he still has it CBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) He is turning 27 in July. He is not on the down slope. Fred Jackson is what? 33? and he still has it CBF Fred Jackson is certainly in decline but he has never had the workload ever in his career that McCoy has had. Edited March 5, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodbuster Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yet he held onto a 31 year old Darren Sproles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) Yet he held onto a 31 year old Darren Sproles. "Most decision-makers -- whether their background was in scouting, accounting or anything in between -- saw that trend as a bad investment. As with any business, they reserve premium contracts for projected growth in production, not a decline." (Seifert, 2014) This is what I would like to highlight in what might be one of the thought processes other than him not getting along with McCoy. It makes sense in both analytics as a predictor and salary in this instance. Edited March 5, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jletha Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 At least we will get one year with him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Perhaps one reason why Kelly would part ways with what seems like a top 5 back. http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27 As a predictor basically we acquire McCoy right at the start of the downward sloping portion of the curve. Sorry if this has been posted before. We've seen it before and it's worth bringing up, but look at the fine print. It's a graph of every running back who has played 4 NFL seasons with >75 carries per season since 2001. Every...running...back. The partiers, the workout warriors. The injured, the healthy. It's a useful tool to show that hits add up and take a toll, but I question it's value to predict the curve of a specific subset of running backs, the stars who take care of their bodies. It may also be biased in other ways, such as the subset of RBs who aren't stars but stick in the league and fit the 75 carries per season (that would be <5 carries per game). Who are that subset? The guys who can block, can play special teams, and perhaps can truck it in short yardage. So yeah, it's a useful graph but like most statistics, be careful that what it's telling you might not be what you think it's telling you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm sure the Bills will restructure his deal that will pay him the average rate during his later years with us CBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) Perhaps one reason why Kelly would part ways with what seems like a top 5 back. http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27 As a predictor basically we acquire McCoy right at the start of the downward sloping portion of the curve. Sorry if this has been posted before. No the only reasons Kelly is dumping all these players is b.c he doesn't value RBs like Rex does, he also doesn't want anyone that isn't 100% into his system. Edited March 5, 2015 by Beef Jerky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 No the only reasons Kelly is dumping all these players is b.c he doesn't value RBs like Rex does, he also doesn't want anyone that isn't 100% into his system. Kelly is clearly dumping players to free up salary cap. It remains to be seen what he plans to do with all that salary cap. What's his plan? Can't tell you, but I'm thinking after FA we'll be able to tell, and judge. It isn't "draft players 100% into my system", that doesn't need cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Kelly is clearly dumping players to free up salary cap. It remains to be seen what he plans to do with all that salary cap. What's his plan? Can't tell you, but I'm thinking after FA we'll be able to tell, and judge. It isn't "draft players 100% into my system", that doesn't need cap. He will sign players he thinks will be 100%. Mostly defense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moshermw Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 If one goes by the posted graphic, Sammy's production goes down 25 % this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) If one goes by the posted graphic, Sammy's production goes down 25 % this season. That's not how you interpret it. You look at the trend on both graphs. A predictor. What it tells you are that RB's decline much faster with age than Wr's and the trend/decline starts at age 27 with both positions. Edited March 5, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's not how you interpret it. You look at the trend on both graphs. A predictor. What it tells you are that RB's decline much faster with age than Wr's and the trend/decline starts at age 27 with both positions. You interpret it as you would any actuarial statistics, as a predictor of the overall group performance. It is meaningless as a predictor of individual performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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