bbb Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 A problem I have as analytics: In the last 10 seasons, teams have attempted to convert a fourth down with between 8 and 12 yards to go in the fourth quarter or overtime 559 times. They got the first down or touchdown on 214 of those plays, a success rate of 38.3 percent. This doesn't take into account the specific team. Orton was having a bad day and Sammy's injury was making him a shell of himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Orton was not throwing accurately at the end, and I think the mistake was putting the game in his hands at that moment. I agree there was no reason not to try a couple of shorter routes or runs, at least to get the first down. But the larger question is, what kind of clock management was that? Four passes, if you're successful you get 3 point lead and leave over 3 minutes of the 4th quarter for Smith to work with. If the idea is to get a TD or bust on that drive, use up the clock! The largest question is, FG or pass on 4th down. I think the FG is the smart play. Carpenter is lights out, the wind was at his back. If all they needed was another FG, all the Bills needed to do was get to the Chiefs 40, or maybe not that far, and Carpenter could do the rest. Even starting with only 25 seconds or whatever they had, they could have made that work. Yes and yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 (edited) Completely agree, cant believe anyone thought kicking the FG was the right call there the mistake was going for the TD on all 4 plays, why not run and continue to move the ball...they acted like there was 20 seconds left in the game I think they either a)committed to taking 4 shots at the end zone or b) chefs took away the underneath stuff (hard to tell watching on TV). Not kicking FG as you say was unquestionably the right call no matter Edited November 11, 2014 by JTSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Fourth and 10 at the KC 15, we're down 4 points, 2:32 left in the game, Buffalo has all of its timeouts remaining. Go for it? Are you kidding? If you take the FG and get a stop, you only need to get to the 35 or so for a chance at a game-winning FG with the wind at your back. I haven't seen anything on this in the news coverage, but that may have been the worst game management decision since we punted from the 32 against the Patriots a few years back. throwing into the endzone 4 times in a row from there was even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Could not agree more, OP. Play the percentages and take the 3 points, pin the Chiefs at the 20 and put your D on the field with 3 TOs + the 2 minute warning. Get the ball back and then kick another 3 and win. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 throwing into the endzone 4 times in a row from there was even worse. that is your rational? Orton shouldn't have been allowed to change a play if he reads a defense strong against the pass? What happened to Mr 4th QRT that the super Orton fans bragged about? 4 passes that were nearly uncatchable. Maybe if Orton could scramble he might have been able to rush in for a TD. So YES the immobile Orton lost the game at the 2 minute mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbmu1977 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 This action all occurred right in front of where we were sitting. It looked to me like ortyon thought he was going to get pressured, but the line held up strong. The line protected him all day, but from the spread formation he looked nervous and hurried. We were scatching our heads after that series was over. Why not pick up the 1st down, they had the ball with 2:30 left at the 15. The whope thing looked rushed. Why not calla time out and get your bearings, Marrone acts like timeouts are made of gold. The Charles run on 4th down should have been after a Bills timeout. Jesus, people were running on and off the field...not set. Every game there are at least two plays like that with this team. Other coaches do it as well, the good ones don't. Now off to play 18, retired life is grand. Beat Miami...........Go Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dog Named Kelso Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Here was an out of the box idea ... not that I think anyone would have done it, but on first down(on the 15) kick the field goal,knowing they were unable to score in the red zone all day, to save time and then have your defense get the ball back and go get another field goal to win. That could have been a novel concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://espn.go.com/b...e-game-strategy I was really tired today when I was listening to S&B in the car, but I swore Joe B. had crazy analytics that were way different. He said something like we had a 30+% chance to win even if we didn't make the fourth and 10, and only a 15% chance if we made the field goal................That does not compute!!! But, of course, No Punt Mike lapped it up. Saying that kicking the field goal would be the stupidest thing ever. His whole campaign Monday was about how conservative Marrone is (due to not going on Flinchgate). But, this 4th and 10 was NOT conservative, and I think it was stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 throwing into the endzone 4 times in a row from there was even worse. Go to 1:06 of this video. The 4th down from 15. Sammy beats his guy early and is open in the end zone. Why does Orton throw a worm burner short? http://www.nfl.com/v...er-one-receiver The play was there. QB failed to execute a pass he'd been making all season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC2002 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Orton was not throwing accurately at the end, and I think the mistake was putting the game in his hands at that moment. I agree there was no reason not to try a couple of shorter routes or runs, at least to get the first down. But the larger question is, what kind of clock management was that? Four passes, if you're successful you get 3 point lead and leave over 3 minutes of the 4th quarter for Smith to work with. If the idea is to get a TD or bust on that drive, use up the clock! The largest question is, FG or pass on 4th down. I think the FG is the smart play. Carpenter is lights out, the wind was at his back. If all they needed was another FG, all the Bills needed to do was get to the Chiefs 40, or maybe not that far, and Carpenter could do the rest. Even starting with only 25 seconds or whatever they had, they could have made that work. I agree its like because of the past success we have had the OC decided to play hero ball instead of playing the percentages . We also were not running a no huddle which is what we were in at the end of those previous games . if we take the fg well now the pressure is on KC instead they have the ball and momentum of knowing they stopped us on the previous drive . I still cant believe we threw it 40+ times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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