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A tale of two quarterbacks


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Below is a quote from here

 

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Jason Campbell was selected with the 25th pick [of the 2005 draft], a round earlier than almost everyone expected. . . .

 

Kyle Orton was another player expected to be taken in the 2nd or 3rd round, but dropped rapidly on draft day, falling to the 4th round . . .

 

Scouts who looked at Orton saw some quality strengths:

 

- Intelligent and instinctive signal caller

- Good athlete with solid arm strength

- Incredibly tough

 

Weaknesses were enough though to hold GM's back from drafting him. Lacks impressive arm strength, impatient under pressure and isn't a physical specimen.

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A pre-draft scouting report had this to say about Orton:

 

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He has the field-reading skills of a 10 year NFL vet and can diagnose a blitz instantly, and is happy to sit in against it and make his reads. Good timing is a huge part of his play. . . .

 

Watching him throw a long ball is just plain painful. . . . Another warning sign has to be his benching towards the end of his senior season.

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The two things I most value in a QB are accuracy and rapid information processing ability. A guy who demonstrates good information processing ability in college ball may take a while to develop it in the NFL. But a guy who doesn't demonstrate good information processing ability in college will almost never develop it in the pros, no matter how much development time he is given.

 

Orton's initial stats in Chicago were mediocre at best, despite his having "the field-reading skills of a 10 year vet" when coming out of college. But he's improved since then. From 2009 - the present, Orton's stats have been significantly better than Fitz's.

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why are you trying so hard to prop up Kyle Orton?

He's a decent veteran QB. Sometimes those types of guys flourish in the right situation. Hopefully this is that situation for him. It is far too early to tell and none of us, no matter how hard we try or how much we want it to happen, can do anything about it. Let's just sit back and see what happens. If we are lucky, Kyle will have a good season and the Bills will make it to the post-season. GO BILLS.

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The one thing I noticed about Orton in his first start in Detroit is that he got the ball out very quickly, which negated much of the rush against him. He was only sacked 2x, and those were mostly coverage sacks. Then considering how bad that Bills O line is, I'd say that was a huge accomplishment. So, his ability to read the defense, set protections, and process the play as it develops is as good as Fitz's so far. However, his down field accuracy seems to be far superior.

 

I did notice that Orton was able to change the play at the line, and usually for the better as he saw what defense they were in and countered it. Orton was able to run the 2 min drill well enough to get the Bills in position to win the game. Something that Fitz struggled with his last year under Gailey.

 

 

Now for the bad. In 2010 Orton had 13 game starts with Denver, and went 3-10. 580 attempts passing vs 398 attempts rushing for the Bronco's that year under HC Josh McDaniel's & OC Mike McCoy. That's some decent offensive coaching, and way, way to much passing.

 

This leads me to think that the Detroit game might just be an aberration in that Orton was undefeated against that team his entire career, and time while he was with Chicago, and he just might have their number. This sort of stuff happens as even Fitz showed in 2010 that he knew how to play against the AFC north from his time at Cincy. Fitz played very well against Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore.

 

I'm kinda wondering what QB we will see against the Patriots. While at Denver, the guy who went 8-7 in 2009 and threw for 3,800 yards, 21 TD's, 12 INT's or the guy who went 3-10 in 2010, 0-4 in 2011.

 

 

What I do know is that no QB can make a living throwing 40+ times with virtually no run game. That is the way the Bills offense went the last two games.If given a competent run game that can take pressure away from Orton I think he could do very well. If the trend continues in forcing the QB to shoulder the entire offense...well then, I'm not so sure. All we can do is hope he plays well.

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The one thing I noticed about Orton in his first start in Detroit is that he got the ball out very quickly, which negated much of the rush against him. He was only sacked 2x, and those were mostly coverage sacks. Then considering how bad that Bills O line is, I'd say that was a huge accomplishment. So, his ability to read the defense, set protections, and process the play as it develops is as good as Fitz's so far. However, his down field accuracy seems to be far superior.

 

I did notice that Orton was able to change the play at the line, and usually for the better as he saw what defense they were in and countered it. Orton was able to run the 2 min drill well enough to get the Bills in position to win the game. Something that Fitz struggled with his last year under Gailey.

 

 

Now for the bad. In 2010 Orton had 13 game starts with Denver, and went 3-10. 580 attempts passing vs 398 attempts rushing for the Bronco's that year under HC Josh McDaniel's & OC Mike McCoy. That's some decent offensive coaching, and way, way to much passing.

 

This leads me to think that the Detroit game might just be an aberration in that Orton was undefeated against that team his entire career, and time while he was with Chicago, and he just might have their number. This sort of stuff happens as even Fitz showed in 2010 that he knew how to play against the AFC north from his time at Cincy. Fitz played very well against Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore.

 

I'm kinda wondering what QB we will see against the Patriots. While at Denver, the guy who went 8-7 in 2009 and threw for 3,800 yards, 21 TD's, 12 INT's or the guy who went 3-10 in 2010, 0-4 in 2011.

 

 

What I do know is that no QB can make a living throwing 40+ times with virtually no run game. That is the way the Bills offense went the last two games.If given a competent run game that can take pressure away from Orton I think he could do very well. If the trend continues in forcing the QB to shoulder the entire offense...well then, I'm not so sure. All we can do is hope he plays well.

Good post.

 

My observations about Orton in the Detroit game are similar to yours.

 

Personally, I'm not a big fan of evaluating a QB by "his" W/L record. The theory behind that method is that most teams are fairly similar in terms of non-QB positions; and that QB play makes the difference between winning and losing. The problem with that theory is that teams often aren't similar in terms of non-QB talent. It's possible for a team to win despite mediocre QB play, or lose despite good QB play. Elway's Broncos would sometimes go 7-9.

 

From 2009 to the present, Orton has done better than Fitz in terms of yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, and interception percentage. The two QBs are similar in terms of QBR. Orton looked like a better QB than Fitz against Detroit; and that eyeball test was borne out by three of the four statistical measures I value the most.

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