Cson76 Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I went through the nfl.com top 100 players of 2013 and looked up their draft round. My goal here is with the trade up scenario about giving away draft picks. 61% of the players on this list were taken in the first round and 1st round picks consist of 24 if the top 30. Second round picks are 16% of the list. It gets interesting from here. Both 3rd, 4th and undrafted players are all tied at 6-7%. Now the value of the mid round guys are with depth and injuries are a huge part of football. However, my take is if Watkins is that generational player, give up a second and move up and get him. Don’t give up a future first. The common argument I hear from most people is that this is such a deep draft, don’t give up picks. You could take that statement with this data and say don’t give up a high second as that is close to a first round talent in other years. My thought is, if he is AJ Green/ Julio Jones good, get him, and since this draft is so deep, the player pool for UDFA’s will be deeper than normal and you can make up for it on the back end. I’ve attached the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I don't understand the premise of your post. Are you saying that nfl.com's list represented true value and that 6 of their top 30 fell outside the first round that some teams got first round value in round 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I went through the nfl.com top 100 players of 2013 and looked up their draft round. My goal here is with the trade up scenario about giving away draft picks. 61% of the players on this list were taken in the first round and 1st round picks consist of 24 if the top 30. Second round picks are 16% of the list. It gets interesting from here. Both 3rd, 4th and undrafted players are all tied at 6-7%. Now the value of the mid round guys are with depth and injuries are a huge part of football. However, my take is if Watkins is that generational player, give up a second and move up and get him. Don’t give up a future first. The common argument I hear from most people is that this is such a deep draft, don’t give up picks. You could take that statement with this data and say don’t give up a high second as that is close to a first round talent in other years. My thought is, if he is AJ Green/ Julio Jones good, get him, and since this draft is so deep, the player pool for UDFA’s will be deeper than normal and you can make up for it on the back end. I’ve attached the data So...You're assuming that Watkins is going to be a top 100 NFL player? Even so, I'm guessing the Bills last four 2nd round picks A. Williams, Glenn, Robert Woods, and Kiko were not on that list...But they are all very good pivotal young players the Bills have recently Drafted in the 2nd round...That's what you are likely giving up with that 2nd round pick...You're giving up on getting that kind of talent for a team that finished 6-10 last year... And I like Sammie Watkins as much as the next guy...But assuming he's going to be a "generational talent" is a bit much for me...I think he's going to be good...I certainly think he could become a Julio Jones-type in time...But we'll see...He's not Megatron...So I'm not OK whatsoever with giving up #41...It's too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I went through the nfl.com top 100 players of 2013 and looked up their draft round. My goal here is with the trade up scenario about giving away draft picks. 61% of the players on this list were taken in the first round and 1st round picks consist of 24 if the top 30. Second round picks are 16% of the list. It gets interesting from here. Both 3rd, 4th and undrafted players are all tied at 6-7%. Now the value of the mid round guys are with depth and injuries are a huge part of football. However, my take is if Watkins is that generational player, give up a second and move up and get him. Don’t give up a future first. The common argument I hear from most people is that this is such a deep draft, don’t give up picks. You could take that statement with this data and say don’t give up a high second as that is close to a first round talent in other years. My thought is, if he is AJ Green/ Julio Jones good, get him, and since this draft is so deep, the player pool for UDFA’s will be deeper than normal and you can make up for it on the back end. I’ve attached the data I like your thought process and would be fine trading up to secure Watkins. I don't want to give up next year's first pick though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 The common argument I hear from most people is that this is such a deep draft, don’t give up picks. You could take that statement with this data and say don’t give up a high second as that is close to a first round talent in other years. That's a smart argument...Here's another...Good teams stockpile picks and rarely trade them away unless they already have a decent pile of picks saved up...Seattle and San Fran are the two best teams in the NFL...Over the past 4 Drafts the Seahawks have had 39 picks...The 49ers have had 36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 That's a smart argument...Here's another...Good teams stockpile picks and rarely trade them away unless they already have a decent pile of picks saved up...Seattle and San Fran are the two best teams in the NFL...Over the past 4 Drafts the Seahawks have had 39 picks...The 49ers have had 36... Interesting fact. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formerly Allan in MD Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 History has shown that we don't need draft picks anywhere near as much as we need brains making the picks we have. We apparently finally have some intelligence in the front office. Go for it - smartly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmo Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I agree with the logic about how trading for Watkins wouldn't be that big of a blow when you consider the strength of the upcoming UDFA class. But I think trading up for Mike Evans would be a much better move since we wouldn't have to give up as much, maybe not even a 2nd rounder if we're only trading up to #5 or #6. Plus Evans is exactly the type of player that we've been wanting for seemingly forever - a big, tall stud WR who's open even when he's covered. The team could certainly use more depth at a lot of different positions but I'd say our only real "needs" are a big WR or TE and a RT. If we could grab legit day-1 starters at both those spots we could very well be heading to the playoffs, so if it takes trading away a few picks to get them I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I agree with the logic about how trading for Watkins wouldn't be that big of a blow when you consider the strength of the upcoming UDFA class. But I think trading up for Mike Evans would be a much better move since we wouldn't have to give up as much, maybe not even a 2nd rounder if we're only trading up to #5 or #6. Plus Evans is exactly the type of player that we've been wanting for seemingly forever - a big, tall stud WR who's open even when he's covered. The team could certainly use more depth at a lot of different positions but I'd say our only real "needs" are a big WR or TE and a RT. If we could grab legit day-1 starters at both those spots we could very well be heading to the playoffs, so if it takes trading away a few picks to get them I'm all for it. So...Let me see if I understand this... It's not as big a deal giving up #41 overall...which...in a deep Draft should carry the value of what you can normally get from a mid-late 1st Round pick?...Not to mention the fact that the 2nd Round has netted the Bills talent like Cordy Glenn, Aaron Williams, Kiko Alonso, and Robert Woods in only the past three Drafts...But it's OK giving up that pick because of the depth of a UDFA class?...A UDFA class which, regardless of Draft depth, has a near-zero-percent chance of producing a multi-year starter historically...The UDFA's make giving up a 2nd round pick OK? I just don't get that logic... Sure there's always the Nikell Robey's that come along and contribute...But even guys like that who end up being nickle and dime DB's are hard to find among the average UDFA class...It's a statistical rarity...I read a study that said only 28 UDFA's became starters in their Rookie years from 2001-2010 out of a total of at least 5000 UDFA's signed in that span...That's something like a .0056 chance...All in all UDFA's have an extremely high fail rate after 3 years...It's not a place to be looking to replace the talent you lost from giving up a premium Draft pick...It is however a way for a team to explain a risky move like this to anyone who really don't know any better... The only way giving up #41 overall is understandable for a 6-10 football team is if the player you trade up for does not only project to be, but becomes an perennial All-Pro caliber player...And we wont know that for a few years minimum...But I don't really need to tell anyone what the probability of that happening is...Do I?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts