NoSaint Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 absent the written sworn testimony some need before they believe what the press was told, we do know what the bills offered (Top 5 money). we also know that his agent wants Top 1 money. what does that top 5 contract look like to you? give your guess on the dollars and years? is it top 5 average? top 5 total dollars? does it have top 5 guarantees? does it qualify as top 5 across all safeties, or just free safeties? how fast does the cash hit his hands? is top 5 3rd? 4th? 5th? likewise, tell me about his agents top 1 demands across those questions? does that include TPs short extension, for instance? the gap could be from mid 6s to nearly 10m, depending on how (un)reasonable/(dis)honest you want to believe either side was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 what does that top 5 contract look like to you? give your guess on the dollars and years? is it top 5 average? top 5 total dollars? does it have top 5 guarantees? does it qualify as top 5 across all safeties, or just free safeties? how fast does the cash hit his hands? is top 5 3rd? 4th? 5th? likewise, tell me about his agents top 1 demands across those questions? does that include TPs short extension, for instance? the gap could be from mid 6s to nearly 10m, depending on how (un)reasonable/(dis)honest you want to believe either side was. Top 5 money is 5 years $8.25 mil/yr with $20 mil Guaranteed. (Dashon Goldson money) Top 1 money is 5 years $9-10 mil/yr with $27-30 mil Guaranteed. (Eric Berry & Troy Polamalu money) (essentially a 3 yr deal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Top 5 money is 5 years $8.25 mil/yr with $20 mil Guaranteed. (Dashon Goldson money) Top 1 money is 5 years $9-10 mil/yr with $27-30 mil Guaranteed. (Eric Berry & Troy Polamalu money) (essentially a 3 yr deal) i have nothing to point to to say you are wrong, but at no point in this offseason did i get the impression our offers cleared goldson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle flap Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 i have nothing to point to to say you are wrong, but at no point in this offseason did i get the impression our offers cleared goldson. IIRC, Chris Brown, Mark Kelso, and Tim Graham all alluded to the Bills offering around $7M/per and Byrd/Parker asking for around$9M/per Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 that might be a stretch with an "or" and you used an "and" now we cant resign 3 players because we are paying byrd? Tough to say. I think AW, dareus, and Hughes may all get top-10 money. Maybe you take those three guys plus Byrd, and try to keep 2 of the 4. Tough to know which 2 to keep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 (edited) Tough to say. I think AW, dareus, and Hughes may all get top-10 money. Maybe you take those three guys plus Byrd, and try to keep 2 of the 4. Tough to know which 2 to keep... Plus Spiller(who by the half way point next season, with hopefully much better QB play, is shining again).....and on top of that we will be looking at Glenn and Gilmore the following year. Regarding all of those players however.....things likely won't be as bad as you might think. The cap increases will be coming in 2015/16.....and in 2015 we will have $12m more room due to the dead monies being gone(minus any new dead money). Hijacking the thread a little, I will cover how I see the immediate players in regards to the cap..... Byrd: $9m/year will likely get the deal done......and the cap room we have heading into the future seems to have taken this into account. Dareus: We are in good position here. His rookie contract is already the 15th highest in the league......and his 2014 cap number is $6.5m. A $2.5m increase on his 2014 number would see him as the 4th highest paid DT in the league. Furthermore.....and I only learned this recently from a different thread.....we will have an option to extend him through the 2015 season for only $7m. AW: Interesting situation. I really can't see that AW will command a top 10 deal(particularly if we extend him mid-2014) but....even if we sign him up in the 18-16 range in safety rankings we will be up for $4.5m-$5m per year. This would be about $3m above his 2014 cap hit. Top 10 would mean an extra $5m(instead of $3m) above. Spiller: His contract is currently the 13th highest for RBs.....though his 2014 cap hit is only $4.4. Bringing him up to $8m/year would see him as the 5th highest paid RB in the league(cap increase of $3.6m). I see Spiller as a problem as if he shines next season as he did in 2012, he will likely want more.....and if he doesn't, I doubt the Bills would justify $7m-$8m on him. Hughes: I've got no idea what sort of money he may be worth as he is a situational player(and my knowledge of players only goes so far). I find it hard to imagine that he could be worth top 10 money......but even top 20 money might be too much of an increase to pay(Increase of $5m+ needed). The main question I have with Hughes is......Is his production on the field largely due the top level talent around him(Mario, Kyle, Dareus), or is it a product of his own stellar talents? I tend to think that Hughes will be gone post 2014. Glenn will be the big issue, likely requiring an extra $9m+/year from 2016.....but with the lack of dead monies & the future cap increases, this should also be relatively easily obtained. If we rework AW & Dareus next season, I can't see that costing more than an extra $6m in post 2014 average cap space. We can easily sign Byrd and still maintain most of the up and coming talent. The only real question mark IMO would be Spiller.....and that all depends on his production next season. Going forward, the Bills are in a very good cap situation IMO. Edited January 14, 2014 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 (edited) I won't quote the long post but generally yea - bar napkin math says upwards of a third of our starters should be paid in the top third at their positions as much as spending highly on guys scares this board. There are plenty of teams that posters say "how do they afford all that" and Id be happy to join that set of teams that manages the cap and actually adds/keeps talent. If I'm choosing between Byrd and Hughes though, there's no question that I think Byrd is the more talented player and we could find someone else to plug into a specialized role instead of replacing an every down all pro type talent. If we were talking Byrd vs a 3 down player, atleast I could see having a conversation. All that said- I think without question we could keep atleast 3, possibly all 4 as long as we don't blow money on undeserving guys the next few years and have dead money issues. We she'd much of it last year and I don't see guys like Lawson, branch etc.... Getting us into bad spots. IIRC, Chris Brown, Mark Kelso, and Tim Graham all alluded to the Bills offering around $7M/per and Byrd/Parker asking for around$9M/per That's about what I've consistently believed piecing together reports and strongly suspect something around 8.5 would likely get the deal done. Edited January 14, 2014 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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