San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 As a side note, my brain completely dismisses the statement "Next year's class is better" as I have read that phrase every year over the last 4-5 years. There's no validity in that prediction. No telling what will happen with careers and injuries. Take a guy early this year and next year. Start injecting this team with young, hungry QB talent. I strongly agree with the bolded statement partly for the reason you state: that the predictability of next year's market is not as easy as most people seem to think it is. But also, there's a tug-of-war in sports between making decisions for the long term and making them for the short term. There are only a few teams who have the luxury of being able to consistently make long term decisions. This is sad and ironic because long term decisions are usually the best. However owners and fan bases are impatient and the vast majority of decision makers in sports are under immense pressure to win now (the future be damned). I can understand the concept that we should wait till next year to draft our quarterback but I don't want to employ that concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 (edited) I couldn't disagree more. I think there are several first round talent QB's coming out. And I think this years second tear is far and above last years. Osweiler, Wilson, Moore, Weeden, Cousins, Foles, Tannehill, Keenum don't compare IMO to this years guys. WOW there are only maybe 3 QB's this year that can compare to last years list & not even close to the 2 QB's taken at the opening of the draft which you forgot to mention. Last year Luck, RG3, Wilson, Cousins, Tannehill, & possibly Weedon exceed just about any of the guys coming out this year. 3 QB's & maybe 4 if you count Barkley (which given USC QB's of the recent past i wouldn't take a chance on him with a gun pointed to my head) might be worthy of the first round. If you take out the desperation factor of teams like the Bills, Cards, KC, & others some of these guys wouldn't get as much as a sniff until the second round at best. If a guy like Wilson given what he did in college dropped to the 3rd round last year, just on stats & skill set this years guys would drop even farther. The only one this year that can match or beat wilson may be Landry Jones career. Nassib is a decent QB but 2nd round by all counts. Not that these guys can't be good NFL QB's but if your looking for the next Manning, Brady, Luck, it ain't happening this year !! Now next year is a different story !!! Edited January 26, 2013 by T master Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Looking at the FA QB's this year proves that teams needing a QB must go with the draft. By the 2014 draft I do not see as many question marks at QB. The Browns will probably top the list of being at the bottom and needing a QB. We may be 2nd, and that is just our luck. Teams have filled their needs at QB. The Jets will being in a FA instead of risking it on a rookie, which will be funny given the cap status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddenboy Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 1. The check's in the mail. "Teen" 2. Of course I'll respect you in the morning. 3. No, I'll never post these pictures of you on the Internet. Oh, sorry. I thought it was about the three biggest lies of all time. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I strongly agree with the bolded statement partly for the reason you state: that the predictability of next year's market is not as easy as most people seem to think it is. But also, there's a tug-of-war in sports between making decisions for the long term and making them for the short term. There are only a few teams who have the luxury of being able to consistently make long term decisions. This is sad and ironic because long term decisions are usually the best. However owners and {because of their} fan bases are impatient and the vast majority of decision makers in sports are under immense pressure to win now (the future be damned). I can understand the concept that we should wait till next year to draft our quarterback but I don't want to employ that concept. draft one each year until we find one then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 (edited) draft one each year until we find one then? Paul Brown used to believe that. Of course that was when the NFL draft was twice as many rounds as it is today. That said, if I was running a team, I'd never let the pantry go bare. In other words, if value met opportunity, I'd buy now and figure out the depth chart later; like Shanny did with RGIII and Cousins. Edited January 26, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Paul Brown used to believe that. Of course that was when the NFL draft was twice as many rounds as it is today. That said, if I was running a team, I'd never let the pantry go bare. In other words, if value met opportunity, I'd buy now and figure out the depth chart later; like Shanny did with RGIII and Cousins. So let me ask this ? We dont have the franchise QB ( i now understand the true meaning of the words ) so we draft one or two this year in hope. Being the Bills situation. One each year in the early rounds , till we find it ? On another hand, do you think Shanny drafts another one, a project maybe, again next year even though he is flush with the bastards ? And of course i am being conceptual and not being team specific. The future of the game is desperate for quarter backs it seems. The ones that are NFL ready. And thats the way the college game is going. Luck and RG3 were an anomaly of goodness. I am thinking draft early. Go for it this time. we failed being cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 So let me ask this ? We dont have the franchise QB ( i now understand the true meaning of the words ) so we draft one or two this year in hope. Being the Bills situation. One each year in the early rounds , till we find it ? On another hand, do you think Shanny drafts another one, a project maybe, again next year even though he is flush with the bastards ? And of course i am being conceptual and not being team specific. The future of the game is desperate for quarter backs it seems. The ones that are NFL ready. And thats the way the college game is going. Luck and RG3 were an anomaly of goodness. I am thinking draft early. Go for it this time. we failed being cute. If I had two who I knew could play, I probably wouldn't draft a third one. There's just too few draft picks and too many positions on a football team. It would be a bit of an excessive luxury. BUT, even then I might make an exception if the value were too good to pass. As you know there have been some instances in recent history where drafted QBs have retained some trade value for the team which drafted them. And as you point out, QBs have never been more valued than today meaning that there is somewhat of an argument to stockpile them. I don't know what Shanny will do this year, I sense he'll keep Cousins for the duration of his rookie contract so that he has a cheap and capable backup for the next 4 years. I would look for Shanny to look at QBs in 2014 and 2015 as an eventual replacement for Cousins. As for the Bills, yes. Keep trying till you KNOW you have one. As others have pointed out, the rookie wage scale allows teams to invest in more than one guy and jettison a high draft pick if necessary. If I was a GM, my team would probably suck but it would have a lot of QBs and pass rushers on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny33 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Three fallacies I keep hearing over and over again about the NFL Draft 1.) The 2013 Draft is weak in talent. Yes it is generally agreed that the QB position is weak this year with 1st round talent. And some believe that in general the 1st Round OL talent availability is average. But the DL talent level is considered generally strong this year. How you as a team view a draft’s relative strength is how you view the talent available at the positions you identify a need at. 2.) That making trades in draft positions is the exception and is not very common According to the NFL, last year almost 50% of the eligible draft picks were the result of position trades. And that 50% were the trades that were agreed to, there are no figures that I can find on trade offers that were not agreed to. http://www.nfl.com/d...f-all-the-moves Two picks were traded multiple times. The traded picks in the first round alone- 2,3,4,5,6,7,12,14,15,21,25,27,29,31 3.) Our 8th position choice has little trade value, since the talent is so weak this year The saying goes “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder”. If a team has targeted a particular position or a particular player as someone they think will improve their team, if that player they really want is available at Number 8, an intelligent, professional GM will always at least consider the possibility of trading up for them. It does not matter how much or how little talent there is available at positions a team does not feel they have in need for, it only matters if the talent or the player they have a position of need for is available. What I have a need for is of high relevance to me. I may strategically care about choices another team makes when choosing before me when selecting positions/players I don’t feel a need for. But that is because the domino effect of their choices may affect other team’s choices before me and may ultimately affect my options. Ultimately, I am more concerned with the available choices/players/positions that can fill MY needs. There is talent, elite and otherwise, in this draft. That being said, the last two years have been among the most successful draft classes in history across the board. I wouldn't say that this draft class is historically weak- like the infamous 2000 NBA Draft- but likely average in terms of the displacement of quality starters and the influx of elite talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 If I had two who I knew could play, I probably wouldn't draft a third one. There's just too few draft picks and too many positions on a football team. It would be a bit of an excessive luxury. BUT, even then I might make an exception if the value were too good to pass. As you know there have been some instances in recent history where drafted QBs have retained some trade value for the team which drafted them. And as you point out, QBs have never been more valued than today meaning that there is somewhat of an argument to stockpile them. I don't know what Shanny will do this year, I sense he'll keep Cousins for the duration of his rookie contract so that he has a cheap and capable backup for the next 4 years. I would look for Shanny to look at QBs in 2014 and 2015 as an eventual replacement for Cousins. As for the Bills, yes. Keep trying till you KNOW you have one. As others have pointed out, the rookie wage scale allows teams to invest in more than one guy and jettison a high draft pick if necessary. If I was a GM, my team would probably suck but it would have a lot of QBs and pass rushers on it. Thanks , you answered me very well. There are going to be haters if we take one at #8 but we almost have to this year. Ideally we grab defense first ( i love me some defense ) but our hand could be forced and i think it would be much worse if we watch someone take our guy or guys. In regard to the fallacy Simpleman, i expect Nix and Whaley to be wheeling and dealing in the first and second rounds. Even though the Franchise QB's dont stand out yet , this draft will be a nail biter for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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