Grantland.coms case for Spiller and Levitre as AFC pro bowl starters

[Maury Ballstein]

Running Back: C.J. Spiller, Buffalo. Don't go to the comments section and complain yet! Hear me out. Who else should be in this space? Ray Rice has been neutered by Baltimore's play-calling and mediocre offensive line. Arian Foster has been struggling to average four yards per carry all year and has seemingly lost his value as a receiver. Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson have been effective, but have they really been more valuable than Spiller? As freaky as Adrian Peterson's 6.3 yards per carry figure is, Spiller is actually averaging 6.5 yards per pop; nobody in the history of the NFL has done that over 150 carries in a season. Ever. He can't compete with Peterson, of course (spoiler alert), but Spiller has been a dynamic playmaker on a team that never scares anybody with its passing game. With no complete option available at running back in the AFC, I'm opting for the guy who does more with each touch than anybody else in the conference.

 

 

Guard: Andy Levitre, Buffalo. If Spiller is gaining all those yards in an offense with a very limited passing game, somebody has to be out there blocking for him. The best guy out there for the Bills is Levitre, who is versatile enough to spot up at virtually any position on the line. He's also very likely to be the best interior offensive lineman on the free-agent market this offseason, since the Bills haven't locked him up yet and would be more likely to use the franchise tag on safety Jairus Byrd.

Edited December 25, 2012 by Ryan L Billz

[Doc]

Both should make it, but I hope they don't. Levitre especially since he's an UFA.

[RuntheDamnBall]

If they lose Levitre I will lose my sh*t and it will help ensure the Bills' endless sojourn in the desert. They better be locking up both him and Byrd at all costs.

[Doc]

If they lose Levitre I will lose my sh*t and it will help ensure the Bills' endless sojourn in the desert. They better be locking up both him and Byrd at all costs.

You'd be willing to re-sign both for $18M/year?

[ganesh]

If they lose Levitre I will lose my sh*t and it will help ensure the Bills' endless sojourn in the desert. They better be locking up both him and Byrd at all costs.

 

They will franchise Levitre even if it will cost them 10M and then sign him to a long term deal. He is their best player on the OL.

[RuntheDamnBall]

You'd be willing to re-sign both for $18M/year?

Show me where an NFL team is going to sign a guard and a safety for $18MM a year each. The straw man game is fun but average salaries of the top 5 guys at safety are around $9MM including signing bonus amortized. Top 5 salaries at OG are around $7.5MM including signing bonus amortized. If the Bills can afford to extend Chris Kelsay every two years, or throw money at Shawne Merriman, or give Fitzpatrick $21MM over the past two years, but can't fit those two elite players that they drafted and developed under their budget and cap, but then I quit. The only excuse for it would be if they really wanted to play somewhere else, and that's still an indictment of the organization.

[ganesh]

Show me where an NFL team is going to sign a guard and a safety for $18MM a year each. The straw man game is fun but average salaries of the top 5 guys at safety are around $9MM including signing bonus amortized. Top 5 salaries at OG are around $7.5MM including signing bonus amortized. If the Bills can afford to extend Chris Kelsay every two years, or throw money at Shawne Merriman, or give Fitzpatrick $21MM over the past two years, but can't fit those two elite players that they drafted and developed under their budget and cap, but then I quit. The only excuse for it would be if they really wanted to play somewhere else, and that's still an indictment of the organization.

 

This! Nix better get his act together and get these two signed even if it means showing the door for Merriman, Kelsay, Moore, and Barnett.

[Doc]

Show me where an NFL team is going to sign a guard and a safety for $18MM a year each. The straw man game is fun but average salaries of the top 5 guys at safety are around $9MM including signing bonus amortized. Top 5 salaries at OG are around $7.5MM including signing bonus amortized. If the Bills can afford to extend Chris Kelsay every two years, or throw money at Shawne Merriman, or give Fitzpatrick $21MM over the past two years, but can't fit those two elite players that they drafted and developed under their budget and cap, but then I quit. The only excuse for it would be if they really wanted to play somewhere else, and that's still an indictment of the organization.

I meant both will cost $18M. Byrd is looking for more than Eric Weddle got ($8M/year) while the top OG's are averaging close to $10M/year. Admittedly I don't know what Levitre is asking for, and the fact that he hasn't made a Pro Bowl, much less All-Pro, could push his pricetag down quite a bit. But I don't think they sign both.

[Doc]

BTW, it would figure if Levitre made his first-ever Pro Bowl this year, when he's ready to become an UFA.

[ny33]

They will franchise Levitre even if it will cost them 10M and then sign him to a long term deal. He is their best player on the OL.

 

Byrd is more likely to walk if he's not franchised.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I meant both will cost $18M. Byrd is looking for more than Eric Weddle got ($8M/year) while the top OG's are averaging close to $10M/year. Admittedly I don't know what Levitre is asking for, and the fact that he hasn't made a Pro Bowl, much less All-Pro, could push his pricetag down quite a bit. But I don't think they sign both.

Where are you getting that the top OG's are averaging $10MM a year? Everywhere I look Mankins at $8.5MM average is the #1, which means top 5 are averaging the $7.5MM I singled out.

 

And as for the $18MM I was wondering about that and should have given you the benefit of the doubt. Anyway, if that's what it takes - which I doubt - yes. The Bills need to overpay these guys if it is necessary. If not they will be overpaying their replacements and getting lesser production on a learning curve, or paying them rookie scale and dealing with growing pains.

[NoSaint]

 

Where are you getting that the top OG's are averaging $10MM a year? Everywhere I look Mankins at $8.5MM average is the #1, which means top 5 are averaging the $7.5MM I singled out.

 

And as for the $18MM I was wondering about that and should have given you the benefit of the doubt. Anyway, if that's what it takes - which I doubt - yes. The Bills need to overpay these guys if it is necessary. If not they will be overpaying their replacements and getting lesser production on a learning curve, or paying them rookie scale and dealing with growing pains.

 

Nicks get more (9+)

I think Evans is around there (closer to mankins?)

 

I use Ben Grubbs as a levitre comp player though

 

 

[ganesh]

Byrd is more likely to walk if he's not franchised.

 

Byrd is likely to sign in the next few weeks...The only question would be: Does Nix/Gailey get fired. If Whaley is promoted, I see him still sign Byrd. Otherwise, Byrd is probably not waiting for the next GM to take up his job.

[Doc]

Byrd is likely to sign in the next few weeks...The only question would be: Does Nix/Gailey get fired. If Whaley is promoted, I see him still sign Byrd. Otherwise, Byrd is probably not waiting for the next GM to take up his job.

Gailey's definitely getting fired. Even if the Bills beat the Jets, he has the same record as the team he took over, with no signs of improvement. The only question is whether Nix fires him, or gets fired along with Gailey? And I can see Byrd re-signing.