My thoughts on our first 3 picks

[rstencel]

I did note what you said about LB and the #10. I think that was just a general LB rant as a lot of people on this board want us to draft at least 2 new LBs with high picks, which imo is waste of those picks. Starting round 3 if the best player on the board is an LB so be it. I think we could get better players to fill other gaping holes first. With a strong pass rush and a good secondary our D will be pretty damn good with the LBs we have. If we lose an LB it will be felt, if we lose McGee or McKelvin sucks, I think that will be felt more. It looks like Scott decided to stay - that was a big signing for us. Also it is looking good that Mark Anderson will be a Bill according to Mario Williams. I think our DL is set now!!

 

We have a small difference of opinion on the LBs and who cares - it isn't a big deal. I do agree we should look for upgrades and if the value is there we should do it.

 

LT is going to be a big issue, I have no idea where they fit that in. It sounds like Martin is the next best after Kalil, #10 still seems a tad bit high to me. Hopefully we figure something out.

 

 

Agreed. Only think need one LB truely, but more skilled depth never hurts either. Scott signing helps in that now have someone capable of playing LB that can actually cover.

 

Yes LT is huge issue, if we dont resign Bell. Dont think either of the top 2 LT's will still be there however and the next group either is big drop talent, or project types. Would have to trade down to get value to pick them, but its not like the Bills are afraid to pick someone way before thier value spot.

 

Does appear that WR, CB, or RB would be most likely to drop to 10 and be top 10 talent wise available to us. I am praying they dont draft another RB, but does look like a special one if he drops that far. Is a very impressive guard that would likely be available, but tough to see anyone picking a guard top 10. While I'm not big fan of picking reciever this high, is probably what bills will end up with. Is a good chance one of the next teir Ofensive Tackles will be avalable in 2nd round, though wouldnt be surprised to see a run on them and Bills trade back into first round to get one of them.

[tennesseeboy]

I see us going with Rief at 10. He's the best OT available after Kalil.

I see us going for Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina in the second round.

I see us going for Jarius Wright, WR from Arkansas in Round three.

[Reed83HOF]

Agreed. Only think need one LB truely, but more skilled depth never hurts either. Scott signing helps in that now have someone capable of playing LB that can actually cover.

 

Yes LT is huge issue, if we dont resign Bell. Dont think either of the top 2 LT's will still be there however and the next group either is big drop talent, or project types. Would have to trade down to get value to pick them, but its not like the Bills are afraid to pick someone way before thier value spot.

 

Does appear that WR, CB, or RB would be most likely to drop to 10 and be top 10 talent wise available to us. I am praying they dont draft another RB, but does look like a special one if he drops that far. Is a very impressive guard that would likely be available, but tough to see anyone picking a guard top 10. While I'm not big fan of picking reciever this high, is probably what bills will end up with. Is a good chance one of the next teir Ofensive Tackles will be avalable in 2nd round, though wouldnt be surprised to see a run on them and Bills trade back into first round to get one of them.

 

I completely agree with everything you said. It would be our luck to have Richardson fall in our lap. This is a tough draft to figure out. I wish there was another LT on the market other than Bell that wouldn't break the bank for us to grab. I see us grabbing an LT prospect within the first 3 rds, we just need a stop-gap LT for this season while the newly drafted one and Hairston develop throughout the season.

[rstencel]

I see us going with Rief at 10. He's the best OT available after Kalil.

I see us going for Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina in the second round.

I see us going for Jarius Wright, WR from Arkansas in Round three.

 

 

Honestly dont see Rief still being there at 10.

[Reed83HOF]

I see us going with Rief at 10. He's the best OT available after Kalil.

I see us going for Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina in the second round.

I see us going for Jarius Wright, WR from Arkansas in Round three.

 

Rief will be gone and we will not take an LB that high, we need CB more than LB and we need a LT prospect

[Dopey]

I think I'm the only one in the world that doesnt want to see more front 7 drafted high.

 

We need more offense too, requiring an upgrade to the WR corp and Oline. On defense what really need is to bolster our cover guys because McGee and Mckelvin just aren't getting it done.

 

I'd go BPA in rounds 1 - 3 restricted to the positions of OT, WR and CB.

I know this has been said before(esp by me), but Revis couldn't get it done with receivers having 4-5 seconds to run a route. Early in the season we created to's when we had a semblence of a pass rush. I think the DB's will be fine and might even excel with an improved pass rush.With a pass rush we can properly evaluate the db's this season. Not saying don't draft one if he is the bpa, but I'm not going to call them out until evaluated with a pass rush. One more thing. If we give up tons of yds in the run game, play action will draw the att. of the db's. Overall, the lack of production from the front 7 has hindered the play of the DB's. Give them one more season to see how it works out. I think they will be fine.

Edited March 21, 2012 by Dopey

[rstencel]

I know this has been said before(esp by me), but Revis couldn't get it done with receivers having 4-5 seconds to run a route. Early in the season we created to's when we had a semblence of a pass rush. I think the DB's will be fine and might even excel with an improved pass rush.With a pass rush we can properly evaluate the db's this season. Not saying don't draft one if he is the bpa, but I'm not going to call them out until evaluated with a pass rush. One more thing. If we give up tons of yds in the run game, play action will draw the att. of the db's. Overall, the lack of production from the front 7 has hindered the play of the DB's. Give them one more season to see how it works out. I think they will be fine.

 

I'm with Dopey on this one.

[Reed83HOF]

I know this has been said before(esp by me), but Revis couldn't get it done with receivers having 4-5 seconds to run a route. Early in the season we created to's when we had a semblence of a pass rush. I think the DB's will be fine and might even excel with an improved pass rush.With a pass rush we can properly evaluate the db's this season. Not saying don't draft one if he is the bpa, but I'm not going to call them out until evaluated with a pass rush. One more thing. If we give up tons of yds in the run game, play action will draw the att. of the db's. Overall, the lack of production from the front 7 has hindered the play of the DB's. Give them one more season to see how it works out. I think they will be fine.

 

You are exactly right! Only reasons I see us going after a CB is concerns over McGee's health (we have A. Williams) and McKelvin is an FA next season - to date he has been average at best. Bringing one in via FA; they get paid a ton of $$. They also aren't going to be playing a ton of man.

 

WR and LT are our 2 biggest a CB as BPA at #10, could trump the LT....

[FleaMoulds80]

After improving the passrush, we need to sure up the LT position or CB situation. Our CB's SUCK.

[Kelly the Dog]

My thoughts are Byrd, then Wilson, then Barnett although Aaron Williams could easily sneak in there somewhere.

[Lurker]

2] If Nix and the scouts have Reiff and Martin rated as, say, a #15-20 choice rather than closer to #10, they just won't take one of them even if they know we need a LT.

 

I'm coming around to Martin as the pick. Based on everthing we know about Buddy, this description sounds like his prototype first round pick (experience, character, smarts, immediate contributor):

 

"Jonathan Martin is one of two tackle prospects in this year's class who could be called elite, and given the value of the position will be a likely first-round pick because of it. He embodied all that Stanford football was throughout his time there, as he is an aggressive, smart, technically sound prospect who will enter the league at a stage in his development where he should be able to contribute immediately."

 

Not much differene between 10 and 15, IMO, if you get the guy you're sold on...

[3rdand12]

It was mentioned more than once about our starting linebackers. Lets consider. Barnett is changing positions so is unproven.

I am pretty sure he will succeed and possibly shine. Sheppard is second year kid who came in mid season and was ok. But i expect to see a big leap this year. Kirk has really not played much for us. When he was on the field i did not notice. (probably a good thing) But has a solid rep and i also think he will succeed.

Now here is my dilemna , who is behind them on the roster? Well i know the answer. If any one of those 3 guys go out for IR i will have concerns. big concerns. also we are changing schemes, it's gotta factor in to some degree just because its a new playbook and maybe new verbage for some. The vets will be fine but poor Batten and Moats now have a relearn to ge to speed. Maybe all those second and third year backers ends will step up? or some of them even. i think we need to find one in the second or third round.

now who are the backups listed for the 3 amigos? are you sure we dont need to draft some one earlier than 4th?

Maybe we have it already but not sure from what i saw last year.

Edited March 21, 2012 by 3rdand12

[EldaBillsFan]

I was going to post this in the why we will draft Floyd, but I wanted to make sure that it didn't get buried.

 

The more I think about it, Floyd will be the pick if Jacksonville or Miami doesn't beat us to him (some of which depends on the Flynn sweepstakes). If Miami does not get Flynn, they might look to trade with the Vikings to take Tannenhill, in case the Browns (or Miami feels they do) have sights on him at #4. After the season ended Buddy said they wanted to resign Stevie and get another WR; if they didn't resign him we were going to get 2. During the season Ralph said we need more "runners" to help Ryan. We brought in Williams and Meachem, didn't get Meachem - Buddy didn't like the value. Now Buddy is saying we are set with WRs, we have 9 under contract who we believe in - it is a Smokescreen. The FA value of WRs and CBs have been really high. We played hardball with Stevie and got a great deal on him. I don't see why wouldn't grab Floyd if he is there lock him up for the max contract (I think 5years). Cheaper than FA and is an impact player.

 

Buddy is on record saying he doesn't like the DL/LBs around pick 10. They talk Hairston up. We have a solid interior line. I just don't see Buddy and Chan placing a big value on an LT the #10 pick. I think they would be fine with placing Chandler over there and having our RB chip the DE to help the LT out. I can see us getting a versatile LT who can play all positions in round 3 (would say Round 2, but read on as to why not) or later.

 

We won't be drafting this high again for awhile (I hope). If Floyd is there I think he is our pick. If he isn't and either Claiborne or Kirkpatrick is there as a CB we might go that route. Our secondary is getting older. McGee is banged up, McKelvin is in a contract year and has been inconsistent at best. In the 4-3 D we will be playing in nickel a lot, against the Pats* especially, meaning only 2 LBs on the field. We have tons of D lineman. Dareus, Williams and Williams is a nightmare for teams. As much as BillinNYC will hate it, we are going to need some help here sooner or later. If Floyd is gone, and one of those CBs is there we will take them.

 

I guess that it will be either Floyd or Claiborne (doubtful) or Kirkpatrick. It depends on our values and who is available at the time and who we think will be there at our next pick. Such as is there a big drop-off between Floyd and Stephen Hill (Gailey should have good intel on the latter) vs Kirkpatrick, Jenkins, Robinson & Gilmore. We will either go WR, CB or CB, WR.

 

I wouldn't rule a trade back into the late first or up in the early second to grab a player who slid in a position we want or if there is a run and we really want a player. I think Williams really changed this draft. Another big pass rusher isn't as big of a need as a shutdown CB or huge fast possession WR; especially with those 2 positions commanding top $$ on the FA market...

 

The part where you said "we played hard ball with Stevie and got a great deal on him" - makes you lose all creditability.....

 

Stevie during the season said he wanted 7 mill per ...never said he wanted nor needed to be the highest paid WR ...... he end up getting 8 over the first 3 years of a 5 year contract. The Redskins were willing to pay him more, he wanted to be here. Give credit to Stevie for just wanting to be here.

[Reed83HOF]

The part where you said "we played hard ball with Stevie and got a great deal on him" - makes you lose all creditability.....

 

Stevie during the season said he wanted 7 mill per ...never said he wanted nor needed to be the highest paid WR ...... he end up getting 8 over the first 3 years of a 5 year contract. The Redskins were willing to pay him more, he wanted to be here. Give credit to Stevie for just wanting to be here.

 

The reason I said we played hardball with Stevie is because we were in contract discussions for a long ass time with no movement on the contract, even suspending talks. It even looked like he was going to hit FA and it was reported the difference was about $2 million a season. For it to drag out as long as it did over a couple million, yeah I call it hardball. I never said he wanted to or was looking to be the highest paid player or paid like one - don't put words in my mouth or make it seem like that is what I was implying.

 

Where do you get the 'Skins were willing to pay him? I don't recall seeing that anywhere...or is that just based off of what they spent in FA?

 

We got a great deal on him because look at what $$$ the other FA WRs were getting. If he hit the FA market, I don't know if we would have brought him back at a higher price and he would have gotten offered a lot more than he is getting paid now.

 

I never said to take any credit away from Stevie, it is great that he wanted to be here. He is wanted by everyone!

 

How you even chose to comment on that part of my post and jump to your conclusion about it is beyond me. Obviously you had it in your head that is where I was going and I hope my response shows that your thought/comment is wrong. We didn't seem to budge from what we were willing to pay him, the talks dragged out for the entire season and up to a week before FA. Compared to the contracts given to the FA WRs - yeah we got a great deal on Stevie!

[Reed83HOF]

I'm coming around to Martin as the pick. Based on everthing we know about Buddy, this description sounds like his prototype first round pick (experience, character, smarts, immediate contributor):

 

"Jonathan Martin is one of two tackle prospects in this year's class who could be called elite, and given the value of the position will be a likely first-round pick because of it. He embodied all that Stanford football was throughout his time there, as he is an aggressive, smart, technically sound prospect who will enter the league at a stage in his development where he should be able to contribute immediately."

 

Not much differene between 10 and 15, IMO, if you get the guy you're sold on...

 

I like Martin better as a LT prospect compared to Reiff...We need a LT, there is no way around it. With trading down, I hate to get too fancy and have a team scoop the player you want before you can grab him. In that regards, I agree with your the difference between 10-15 isn't that much.

 

There are only a couple players (Floyd, Kirkpatrick & Claiborne -won't happen) I could see changing our direction from choosing him. I think that if they are there, it makes it tougher to make this choice. I am even iffy on Kirkpatrick now, if Bell doesn't resign I think it is down to Floyd & Martin. LT is a much bigger hole than CB and CB could get taken later and addressed more significantly next draft if need be. If Bell comes back, it gives us more flexibility...

 

If Richardson somehow fell to us...ugh I don't want to think of that!

[Reed83HOF]

It was mentioned more than once about our starting linebackers. Lets consider. Barnett is changing positions so is unproven.

I am pretty sure he will succeed and possibly shine. Sheppard is second year kid who came in mid season and was ok. But i expect to see a big leap this year. Kirk has really not played much for us. When he was on the field i did not notice. (probably a good thing) But has a solid rep and i also think he will succeed.

Now here is my dilemna , who is behind them on the roster? Well i know the answer. If any one of those 3 guys go out for IR i will have concerns. big concerns. also we are changing schemes, it's gotta factor in to some degree just because its a new playbook and maybe new verbage for some. The vets will be fine but poor Batten and Moats now have a relearn to ge to speed. Maybe all those second and third year backers ends will step up? or some of them even. i think we need to find one in the second or third round.

now who are the backups listed for the 3 amigos? are you sure we dont need to draft some one earlier than 4th?

Maybe we have it already but not sure from what i saw last year.

 

About 50% of the D snaps we were in nickle or dime coverage. So even if 1 goes down, it shouldn't be that noticeable. If we drop like fly's again we will notice. With the first 2 picks I would like to see us grab a WR and an LT (if Bell doesn't come back). If Bell comes back, I don't know where the draft depth for LT prospects are, but I could see us taking one around the 2nd/3rd round. That leaves our #1 open for WR and I would look at CB. Again I only say CB because I have more concern regarding 2 of our starters than I do reserve LBs (this off season at least). If we go CB at #10, I expect it to between the top rated WR and LT in rd#2 and the remaining getting scooped up in rd#3.

 

Us retaining McKelvin is doubtful and McGee is a question mark in regards to his health. If an impact one is there - I would be ok with us taking him this season and punting LB to next offseason. LBs are generally cheap to pick up as FAs as well, where CBs aren't. Again that is just my opinion and my thought process.

 

As I read more opinions, yes my thought process changes. I see a need for a big, physical, fast, possession, run-blocking WR with good hands as a huge need and a huge asset to the offense. I stand by the fact that if Floyd is there, we can't pass him up. LT is a huge need as well, we don't have one. CB is a very important position in this defense and at times there will be more of them on the field than LBs.

 

Going into the draft that is what my thought processes is. They have to be true to the board. If Floyd is there, we will go Floyd, LT, CB. If he is gone it might be Martin, WR, CB. If Claiborne fell or Kirkpatrick was there, it could very easily be CB, LT/WR,WR/LT. The longer we don't have an answer, the less likely the first rd CB is unless they have one of those CBs rated very high.

 

The earliest I could see LB come into play is in rd 3 and that would be at the expense of filling starting lineup/first reserve holes. Again it's jmo...

[Kelly the Dog]

My new wet dream draft...

 

What if we take Floyd and then take Coby Fleener in the second--although he may not last until then now that he ran a 4.4 40 at his pro day. Even trade up in the second for him. That dude is good and our offense could be ridiculous.

 

Granted, you cannot count on two rookies having great production immediately, although it happened recently with Gronk and Hernandez, but we wouldn't need them to be stars, just complimentary cogs. Can you imagine Stevie, with Floyd at #2, Nelson in the slot, Chandler and Fleener at TEs, Brad Smith, Spiller and Freddy and maybe even Easley?

 

Holy nightmare.

 

And yes, I know we still need a LT. But Hairston is serviceable if not decent, and we could still re-sign Bell.

[Reed83HOF]

My new wet dream draft...

 

What if we take Floyd and then take Coby Fleener in the second--although he may not last until then now that he ran a 4.4 40 at his pro day. Even trade up in the second for him. That dude is good and our offense could be ridiculous.

 

Granted, you cannot count on two rookies having great production immediately, although it happened recently with Gronk and Hernandez, but we wouldn't need them to be stars, just complimentary cogs. Can you imagine Stevie, with Floyd at #2, Nelson in the slot, Chandler and Fleener at TEs, Brad Smith, Spiller and Freddy and maybe even Easley?

 

Holy nightmare.

 

And yes, I know we still need a LT. But Hairston is serviceable if not decent, and we could still re-sign Bell.

 

That would be amazing; Fleener blew it up today! This is exactly why we need Bell this year or some other stop gap old fa LT (I have no idea if there is any). We could really grab some good offensive weapons in rounds 1&2, grab a CB in rd 3 and go late round LT, LBs and whatever else is there. Next Season we could grab our LT at a pick in the mid 20's and fill whatever else needs to be filled.

 

Fleener and Chandler could really de-emphasize the issue at the LT position. If a team blizted Fitz would kill him with his release and whatever player grabbed it could take it to the house.

 

If we were drafting a bit later in round 1 and missed out on Floyd. He might be hard to pass up!

 

I said above that I am warming up to Martin if we don't resign Bell and Floyd is gone. But ugh it is such an uninspiring pick.

[eball]

My thoughts are Byrd, then Wilson, then Barnett although Aaron Williams could easily sneak in there somewhere.

I see what you did there.

[JuanGuzman]

I will be shocked if we take an LB with the 10th pick. You don't even know what we have the LBs seeing that the Offensive Linemen were blowing through our D-line and getting to the second level. The We may add LBs in later rounds, but that is not a glaring need and there aren't any worth the 10th pick. LBs can be found in any round and when it comes to value - they usually don't break the bank when it comes to FA. LBs taken high in the draft almost never live up to their pick; there is always the hype though - think Aaron Curry. I am sure that someone will toss out a few names of others who panned out, but good LBs can be found in any round. A top-flight CB or game breaking WR happen less frequently and cost a $hitload in FA.

 

Besides, we will not be in a base 4-3 very often. You are looking at 4 down lineman on a rotation 1 or 2 LBs and the rest will be DBs. In the last few seasons, Bryan Scott or our nickel CB was always on the field - that will not change.

 

I really agree with this take, outside of Willis and Bowman in San Francisco there just aren't that many every down LB's in the NFL. I'd rather we take someone who will play a higher percentage of snaps with the 10 pick e.g. O-lineman or DB or WR. Only way I would be for drafting LB at is if he was a player who had good enough coverage skills to be an every down player, or if the LB prospect had the elite ability to get after the QB e.g. Von Miller, or Aldon Smith who was an OLD/DE are both guys didn't play a very high percentage of snaps but because they Rush the QB they were very effective. The NFL is becoming a passing league and players values are increasingly being dictated by down and distance -- the every down LB has become a casualty as a result.